Our three main findings are:
1. Brexit has imposed a large and persistent cost on the UK economy. By 2025, we estimate that UK GDP per capita was 6ā8% lower than it would have been without Brexit. Investment was 12ā18% lower, employment 3ā4% lower, and productivity 3ā4% lower.
2. These losses emerged gradually. The impact was hard to see in 2017ā18, but accumulated steadily over the subsequent decade as uncertainty persisted, trade barriers rose, and firms diverted resources away from productive activity.
3. Economists were roughly right on the magnitude of the impact, but wrong on the timing. The consensus preāreferendum forecast of a 4% longārun GDP loss turned out to be close to the actual loss after five years, but too optimistic about the longer run.