Cont: Brexit XII

[jimbob]

Brexit blame game returns ahead of Budget - https://on.ft.com/49jOSbo via @FT

Unsurprisingly to me at least, Brexit has been worse than many predictions.

"The OBR will say clearly that Brexit had a bigger effect on the British economy than they expected, along with Covid," said one government official. The OBR declined to Comment.
A 0.2 percentage point markdown in the OBR's productivity forecast would cost about £18bn a year.

 

[Helen]

And as usual, the have-nots will pay the price while the haves keep getting havier.

 

[Gord_in_Toronto]

Some stats are now in.

Brexit’s impact on the UK economy - UK in a changing Europe

Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, Pawel Smietanka, and Gregory Thwaites argue that there is evidence that Brexit has had a large and persistent negative impact on GDP, output and productivity in their new NBER working paper.

ukandeu.ac.uk

Our three main findings are:

1. Brexit has imposed a large and persistent cost on the UK economy. By 2025, we estimate that UK GDP per capita was 6–8% lower than it would have been without Brexit. Investment was 12–18% lower, employment 3–4% lower, and productivity 3–4% lower.
2. These losses emerged gradually. The impact was hard to see in 2017–18, but accumulated steadily over the subsequent decade as uncertainty persisted, trade barriers rose, and firms diverted resources away from productive activity.
3. Economists were roughly right on the magnitude of the impact, but wrong on the timing. The consensus pre‑referendum forecast of a 4% long‑run GDP loss turned out to be close to the actual loss after five years, but too optimistic about the longer run.

An immense success.

(Well I guess some made a decent profit. But I wonder who?)

 

[Norman Alexander]

(Well I guess some made a decent profit. But I wonder who?)

Bookies taking bets on Brexit success.