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Cont: 2024 Election Thread part 3

My prediction, based on the shambles Trump's campaign has ended in, reports that undecided voters are breaking heavily in favour of Harris, the high turnout of women in advance voting, and my own natural optimism, is that Harris will win the EC by a healthy margin.

I wish I had your optimism.

Either way, the fact that a man of Trump's obvious unsuitability is even in the running and has garnered so much support is a sad lookout for US Democracy. The US is very broken. The world is ◊◊◊◊◊◊.
 
My prediction, based on the shambles Trump's campaign has ended in, reports that undecided voters are breaking heavily in favour of Harris, the high turnout of women in advance voting, and my own natural optimism, is that Harris will win the EC by a healthy margin.
My prediction is...no prediction. Nate Silver's final model has the two candidates at 50:50 odds to like four significant digets. The Economist's model: 50:50. 538 says 50:49 in favor of Harris. The betting markets are favoring Trump with odds of about 60:40. So I guess if I had to place a bet, which given how close the foredasts are, I wouldn't, I'd go with the betting markets and bet on Trump.
 
They don't get us either. The insane people think they're normal and we're insane. Even Hitler and the Nazis thought they were the good guys. There's no middle ground. Like Captain Spaulding, I must be going. I need several strong drinks and some sleep.
Ask them would they leave their daughter alone, overnight in the company of a rapist?
 
Trump showed up 2 hours late to Grand Rapids. He blamed the audience if he lost the election. Good plan dude, blame your supporters.
They don't mind. He's repeatedly said his supporters are stupid - and they cheer him.
 
You're all individuals!
Yes! We're all individuals!
You're all different!
Yes, we are all different!
I'm not...
 
Donald says

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Roberto Clemente, the Pride of Puerto Rico, was one of the greatest baseball players in history, and also a tremendous humanitarian. He gave his life helping others, dying in a plane crash while delivering relief supplies to earthquake victims on New Year’s Eve 1972. He remains a legend in Puerto Rico and in Pittsburgh. It was my pleasure to talk about his legacy with his oldest son, Roberto Jr., at our rally in Pittsburgh. It’s wonderful to have his support.
 
I wonder what the set bonus is for wearing the full outfit of MAGAt hat, maxi ear pad, red tie, American flag cape, garbage bag armor, diaper, and golden shoes? Do you unlock an achievement for being the realest American?

Also no matter what happens, we haven't seen the last of Trump - they still haven't released anything for the pants slot.

Donald says
Oh he panicking. Well not he, whatever aide wrote that tweet.
 
Donald says

Man, getting Clemente jr. probably won't sway much, but that's could help the impact with the Puerto Rican voters. In Pittsburgh nonetheless.

I definitely don't feel as comfortable as others. I think Trump has a real decent chance at winning today. Nothing seems to lose him support. I already voted for Kamala, but I'm in NoDak so it makes no difference. Hopefully she can pull it off. I'm really, really hoping she can pull it off.
 
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Donald says

"I need you to deliver your vote no matter how long it takes. STAY IN LINE!
The Radical Communist Democrats want you to pack up and go home. "
 
Donald says

"I need you to deliver your vote no matter how long it takes. STAY IN LINE!
The Radical Communist Democrats want you to pack up and go home. "
I sure hope his supporters don't hand out water to people waiting in line at the polls or something. 'cuz that would be illegal, you know. At least in Georgia.
 
My prediction is...no prediction. Nate Silver's final model has the two candidates at 50:50 odds to like four significant digets. The Economist's model: 50:50. 538 says 50:49 in favor of Harris. The betting markets are favoring Trump with odds of about 60:40. So I guess if I had to place a bet, which given how close the foredasts are, I wouldn't, I'd go with the betting markets and bet on Trump.

While the markets have moved decidedly in favour of Trump over the night and continue to do so, this is a false move IMO. Just like with sports, gameday action is usually the dumbest action and considering casual gamblers skew heavily to the white, middle-aged male demographic it was entirely predictable that the market would move toward him on election day.

Now is the time to bet Harris because you can get really favourable odds. I put $5k on Harris at +157 just now which is a ridiculous number. She should be +115 at most IMO.

I will be live betting the election all night.
 
I definitely don't feel as comfortable as others. I think Trump has a real decent chance at winning today. Nothing seems to lose him support. I already voted for Kamala, but I'm in NoDak so it makes no difference. Hopefully she can pull it off. I'm really, really hoping she can pull it off.
Who said anything about comfortable? I'm a ball of anxiety right now. I'm going to be disappointed in the outcome pretty much no matter what happens, because Harris has ticked every "this is how you win" box and Trump has ticked every "this is how you lose" box, and yet here we still are with the polls insisting on a coin flip. I'm comfortable saying the polls have been biasing themselves toward Trump to some degree, but anything less than a Mondale '84 landslide is still going to reflect badly on the American people as a whole. If Trump and couch ◊◊◊◊◊◊ are this hard to beat, how screwed are we going to be when someone mildly competent takes the reins?
 
Who said anything about comfortable? I'm a ball of anxiety right now. I'm going to be disappointed in the outcome pretty much no matter what happens, because Harris has ticked every "this is how you win" box and Trump has ticked every "this is how you lose" box, and yet here we still are with the polls insisting on a coin flip. I'm comfortable saying the polls have been biasing themselves toward Trump to some degree, but anything less than a Mondale '84 landslide is still going to reflect badly on the American people as a whole. If Trump and couch ****** are this hard to beat, how screwed are we going to be when someone mildly competent takes the reins?
I have a cure for your current anxiety: accept that Trump will win the election. Take it as a given. What we fear is always easier to take once it is actually upon us, it's the uncertainty of it that's a major cause of our anxiety. Adopt the posture that he's won, and that anxiety goes away.

Crap, now I'm a ball of anxiety as to what Trump 2.0 will be like.
 

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