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Trump's Second Term

As questionable as I find this particular action, and its timing, and its motivations, and as much as I dislike Trump and think he's a wicked idiot....I don't think this was something he actually wanted to do. I think he got pushed into it and, in typical Trump fashion, tries to claim credit for what he imagines is a credit-worthy thing. Love this attack or hate it, it doesn't seem very Trumplike to me. His style is to make threats and not carry them out. I think he really wanted two weeks plus to look tough, not to actually carry out risky action that might backfire spectacularly not only in themselves but also for the political consequences to himself. Trump's risk-averse when it comes to his own popularity, isn't he?

I think it was people around him who pushed him into this, and I don't think it was his weirdo crypto Nazi cronies -- they strike me as much more interested domestically than internationally. I think it was remaining Bush-like warhawks who pushed for this now, the "old school" that's still managed to hang in there.
 
TragicMonkey said:
As questionable as I find this particular action, and its timing, and its motivations, and as much as I dislike Trump and think he's a wicked idiot....I don't think this was something he actually wanted to do. I think he got pushed into it and, in typical Trump fashion, tries to claim credit for what he imagines is a credit-worthy thing. Love this attack or hate it, it doesn't seem very Trumplike to me. His style is to make threats and not carry them out. I think he really wanted two weeks plus to look tough, not to actually carry out risky action that might backfire spectacularly not only in themselves but also for the political consequences to himself. Trump's risk-averse when it comes to his own popularity, isn't he?

I think it was people around him who pushed him into this, and I don't think it was his weirdo crypto Nazi cronies -- they strike me as much more interested domestically than internationally. I think it was remaining Bush-like warhawks who pushed for this now, the "old school" that's still managed to hang in there.
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What you say makes sense. I think Trump is genuinely anti-war, he would just see it as a waste of money. I think he genuinely wants a 'deal'. So I did wonder what precipitated this attack. What did Netanyahu say to him? Perhaps Netanyahu said he'd nominate him for the Nobel peace prize if he attacked Iran? Perhaps some influential people have purchased oil futures and need the oil price to rise? Perhaps fundamentalist end times Christians working to bring Armageddon and the rapture closer whispered in his ear.
 
Andy_Ross said:
Those dumb previous presidients.

.Vance: I empathize with Americans who are exhausted after 25 years of foreign entanglements in the Middle East. I understand the concern, but the difference is that back then we had dumb presidents

https://twitter.com/x/status/1936793141237166493
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I remember a scene from Breaking Away (1979). A cop passes the four 19-year-old guys hanging out in front of the store. He says "How's it goin', fellas?" The wisecracker of the group (Daniel Stern) says "Well, we're a little worried about the crisis in the Middle East, but, other than that..."
That always reminds me that the enmity has been going on basically forever, and is likely to continue to.
 
TragicMonkey said:
Who's "we", anyway? Does anyone --including Vance-- actually think Vance was involved in this decision? Or even knew about it until afterward?
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Have I gotten the current structure of the government just about right? Forgot about the surpreme court, but I guess they'd be next to Congress and the Senate with the same function.

1750609309989.png

Edit: I guess the toddler position is vacant, too, btw. Also, I probably should've put putin at the top of the diagram, above POTUS.
 
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steenkh said:
Well, it was free to do so under the no longer existing deal with the US, but not under the international Non-Proliferation treaty
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Is Iran signatory to that treaty?
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Yes they are a signatory member. However, they have mentioned that as a result of the attacks they may withdraw.

Now I am not familiar with the exact wording of the treaty. I know it prevents members from pursuing nuclear weapons (or help others get them) but I do not know if it goes into specific details, such as allowed enrichment targets, or if it keeps things relatively vague. If it doesn't go into those details, Iran could claim "plausible deniability".
 
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Safe-Keeper said:
Have I gotten the current structure of the government just about right? Forgot about the surpreme court, but I guess they'd be next to Congress and the Senate with the same function.

View attachment 62010

Edit: I guess the toddler position is vacant, too, btw. Also, I probably should've put putin at the top of the diagram, above POTUS.
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The supreme court, who wags their finger at the president and says "tisk tisk" but let's him do whatever he wants anyways.
 
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From Iran's PoV, it is the only country that has been subject to an attack by WMD since WW2, by Iraq which was at that time a US proxy. No significant action was taken against Iraq. Contrast this with the sanctions taken against Iran for not having WMD, just being in the possible position of being able to develop them, let alone actually using them. Then Iran agrees to a deal, where it disposes of most of its enriched uranium, then the US goes back on the deal. Then Trump who previously broke the deal comes back to re-negotiate the deal. As far as Iran would be concerned as soon as they give up their one negotiating position why wouldn't trump just break the deal as he did before. It isn't as if Trump doesn't have a clear record of breaking deals he negotiated. all the time with the constant threats from the US to destroy Iran

Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left, and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire. No more death, no more destruction, JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE,
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f I were the president, I would inform the threatening country — in this case, Iran — that if you do anything to harm this person, we are going to blow your largest cities and the country itself to smithereens. We are going to blow it to smithereens
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This is the same rhetoric against Iran, that the US accuses Iran of against Israel.
 
Planigale said:
Worth remembering who Iran's neighbours are before dismissing this statement. Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Russia (across the Caspian), and most of the gulf states as maritime borders. Iran has been subject to attacks across its borders from Iraq (the latter being the only mass use of WMD since WW2 by Iraq on Iran), Afghanistan, Pakistan, Azerbaijan (probably one of the main routes of entry of Mossad into Iran). US forces have been based on the borders of Iran in Afghanistan (now gone) and Iraq (still present). Israel has been arming and supporting terrorist groups on Iran's borders and carrying out terrorist attacks in Iran, in addition to conventional military attacks, including on Iranian diplomats. The association of Saudi with Sunni extremist groups ISIS, Al Qaeda, and others is well known, and these Saudi associated groups have carried terrorist attacks in Iran and on Shias elsewhere.

Iran has developed better relations with the Sunni gulf states recently and was moving to deconfliction with Saudi. Iran had agreed not to enrich Uranium more than 4% and agreed to inspections that validated this agreement. The US terminated this agreement not Iran.

The reality as we are now hearing is that Israel's real immediate concern was not nuclear weapons (this was the casus belli), but Iran's conventional ballistic missiles. This why Israel's main attacks were on conventional weapon systems not nuclear systems. Whish they knew they couldn't destroy, but had to get the US to attack.
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Israel's biggest problem was that Netenyahu wouldn't have had a justification for retaining Iran as the racial enemy.
 
Planigale said:
Perhaps Netanyahu said he'd nominate him for the Nobel peace prize if he attacked Iran?
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Trump has been nominated for the Nobel peace prize every year by one nonce or another. A lot of people can nominate for the prize, including every member of the US Congress and Senate, so if it's a peace prize nomination he wants, there are easier ways.
 
Planigale said:
Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left, and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire. No more death, no more destruction, JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE,
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Incidentally, from a quick perusal of Wikipedia I can find no indication that it was ever known as "the Iranian Empire".
Neo-Assyrian Empire
Achaemenid Empire
Seleucid Empire
Parthian Empire
Sasanian Empire
Seljuk Empire
Khwarazmian Empire
Safavid Empire
Afsharid Empire
 
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