The robots are coming...

[Bob001]

When the robots take over, sooner than we think, nobody will have jobs:

When robots become as smart and capable as human beings, there will be nothing left for people to do because machines will be both stronger and smarter than humans. Even if AI creates lots of new jobs, it’s of no consequence. No matter what job you name, robots will be able to do it. They will manufacture themselves, program themselves, repair themselves, and manage themselves. If you don’t appreciate this, then you don’t appreciate what’s barreling toward us.


In fact, it’s even worse. In addition to doing our jobs at least as well as we do them, intelligent robots will be cheaper, faster, and far more reliable than humans. And they can work 168 hours a week, not just 40. No capitalist in her right mind would continue to employ humans. They’re expensive, they show up late, they complain whenever something changes, and they spend half their time gossiping. Let’s face it: We humans make lousy laborers.

https://www.motherjones.com/politic...our-job-to-a-robot-and-sooner-than-you-think/

 

[Venom]

I call BS.

 

[PhantomWolf]

I call BS.

Automation has been costing jobs since the Industrial Revolution. Up until now we have had a lot of jobs that computers can't do better, the problem is that we are fast heading towards a time when that isn't true. Computers can already drive vehicles better, fly planes better, sail ships better, drive trains better. They can do surgery more accurately, make your burger without a human hand touching it. It's no longer just blue collar workers that are in danger. Just as secretaries are no longer needed in a world of word processors and e-mail, in a few years we'll be seeing accountants and other professional jobs losing out to computers and the expert software that can do their jobs better, faster, with fewer mistakes, and also be able to provide real time information to the Boss.

Of course that isn't the biggest issue with an A.I.

The biggest issue with an A.I. is that it's goals and ours will not align and it want take into consideration our goals and rights in achieving its own goals.

An interesting example I heard was of an A.I. that was created to make as many paper clips as it can as efficiently as it can. Without certain parameters what is stopping such an A.I. from narrow mindedly working to achieve that goal to the point of considering Humanity and our civilisation as nothing more than raw materials for creating new paper clip manufacturing machines and for the clips themselves?

One would suggest that we won't care about not having a job then....

 

[Brainster]

Coming from Mother Jones, how did I guess that the next step they see is a massive redistribution of income?

Until we figure out how to fairly distribute the fruits of robot labor, it will be an era of mass joblessness and mass poverty.

Offhand I would say that the fairest way to distribute the fruits of robot labor will be to distribute it to whoever owns the robot.

 

[PhantomWolf]

Offhand I would say that the fairest way to distribute the fruits of robot labor will be to distribute it to whoever owns the robot.

Which would lead to a society with those that have robots working for them, and those that are worthless because they have nothing. This would then lead to the collapse of the economy because if no one other than robot owners have any income, then no one can actually afford to buy what the Robots produce and so even the people that own the robots go broke and end up with nothing. Government's shut down and collapse because they have no Tax income to pay for their militaries, their police forces and justice systems, and all of the other departments they need to run a country.

So basically, you're for the totally collapse of human civilization. Cool.

 

[Horatius]

So basically, you're for the totally collapse of human civilization. Cool.

Yes, people need to realize that, if and when this occurs, the old rules of how economies work will all change. The refusal to acknowledge this will likely be the biggest stumbling block to us actually doing it.

Currently, all of our economic theories are based on the notion that resources and labour are scarce, and as such, we must have some system for "fairly" distributing the wealth the economy generates. They differ in how they define "fair", but they all rest upon the fundamental assumption that not everyone can have everything they desire.

But if robots and AIs are doing all the work, from resource extraction to manufacturing to retail distribution, there's no reason that assumption will still hold, or hold as strongly as it does. Sure, we might not all be able to live the lives of billionaires, but we could probably swing mid- to upper-middle class for everybody.

 

[casebro]

Yes, people need to realize that, if and when this occurs, the old rules of how economies work will all change. The refusal to acknowledge this will likely be the biggest stumbling block to us actually doing it.

Currently, all of our economic theories are based on the notion that resources and labour are scarce, and as such, we must have some system for "fairly" distributing the wealth the economy generates. They differ in how they define "fair", but they all rest upon the fundamental assumption that not everyone can have everything they desire.

But if robots and AIs are doing all the work, from resource extraction to manufacturing to retail distribution, there's no reason that assumption will still hold, or hold as strongly as it does. Sure, we might not all be able to live the lives of billionaires, but we could probably swing mid- to upper-middle class for everybody.

only if the AI allows us to.

 

[BobTheCoward]

Automation has been costing jobs since the Industrial Revolution

50,000 years of human invention and we have still managed to grow the absolute number of jobs that exist. No other previous technology has reversed that trend. Advocates that a technology will do that have a serious uphill battle.

 

[William Parcher]

All the artists will be robots. Singers and music bands will all be robots. The songs will be about robot things because they are written by robots. Concerts will have robot audiences dancing and grooving to the beat. Some kind of drug or programming modification will make them all happy and trippy and acting differently.

Robots will be purchasing things from other robots for their own enjoyment. They will sometimes hire other robots to do their work. Some robots will treat other robots poorly.

 

[Mike!]

All the artists will be robots. Singers and music bands will all be robots. The songs will be about robot things because they are written by robots. Concerts will have robot audiences dancing and grooving to the beat. Some kind of drug or programming modification will make them all happy and trippy and acting differently.

Robots will be purchasing things from other robots for their own enjoyment. They will sometimes hire other robots to do their work. Some robots will treat other robots poorly.

And some robots will hate other robots for no other reason than they don't like that robots manufacturer, this will lead to robot manufacturer riots in the streets.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I think automated shipping/cargo transportation is going to be the make or break litmus test on all this. If/when (my opinion it's a matter of when and probably a pretty soon when) trucks and cargo ships become mostly/all automated and the human condition is removed from... well essentially logistics is going to show how much of a game changer this really is.

 

[JoeMorgue]

A good overview:

CGP Grey: Humans Need Not Apply: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

 

[Ron_Tomkins]

I am a robot.

 

[Distracted1]

50,000 years of human invention and we have still managed to grow the absolute number of jobs that exist. No other previous technology has reversed that trend. Advocates that a technology will do that have a serious uphill battle.

For what portion of that 50,000 years has something that resembles a "job" been a thing?
I don't think The Flintstones was a reality show.

 

[BobTheCoward]

For what portion of that 50,000 years has something that resembles a "job" been a thing?
I don't think The Flintstones was a reality show.

I am counting subsistence farming as a job.

ETA: but it applied to any classification you want to use. Every prediction that there would be less jobs in the future has not happened.

 

[theprestige]

I think automated shipping/cargo transportation is going to be the make or break litmus test on all this. If/when (my opinion it's a matter of when and probably a pretty soon when) trucks and cargo ships become mostly/all automated and the human condition is removed from... well essentially logistics is going to show how much of a game changer this really is.

You should look at what happened to longshoremen, with the advent of the shipping container.

 

[ahhell]

In the past, labor saving devices have caused shifts in what human labor does rather than an end to the need for human labor. The shifts have caused a lot of trouble when they happened though. There's a good argument that the Luddites were right, in the short term. They lost there means of income and they and there children were ruined on account of it. Their great grandchildren were better of though.

Anyrate, this time may be different but we shall see.

 

[Distracted1]

I am counting subsistence farming as a job.

ETA: but it applied to any classification you want to use. Every prediction that there would be less jobs in the future has not happened.

I think that is conflating "jobs" with "work", and getting an unrealistic result.

 

[BobTheCoward]

I think that is conflating "jobs" with "work", and getting an unrealistic result.

Which is why I said it applies to any classification.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

Yeah, I'm not convinced that the oncoming technological revolution will necessarily be the end of labor economy, but it may be a bumpy ride while the world adapts. There may be a massive change in what is considered work and what is lost forever to the realms of machines.

Interesting graphs of the % of people engaged in agriculture here: https://ourworldindata.org/employment-in-agriculture

The trends for the nations listed was a steadily decreasing % of the population employed in agriculture, but a massive change occurred starting in the 19th century. Now, agriculture is a very small % of employed workers.

I do worry that the nature of robots and AI may make changes happen very quickly, as opposed to generationally, which could cause a very concentrated period of upheaval and civic unrest.