Electric Vehicles

[acbytesla]

The range issue for cars is caused by the "energy density" factor: "how much energy can you get out of this system per pound, and/or per cubic inch, of energy source you need to carry around?". The answer is still much lower for batteries and capacitors/supercapacitors than for carbon compounds, and likely to stay that way. And, even if we adapt and get used to the range issue in cars, it's much more crucial for aircraft. They're just not going to really work at all with a power source that's heavier and delivers less total output between refuelings/rechargings/replacements.

Then there's also the fact that batteries (along with LCD panels) call for some nasty mining processes to get at rare elements that only exist in a few (mostly foreign) places in the world and will run out in roughly the same time frame that fossil fuels will, and the fact that so many of those who are pushing for alternative energy sources think that one major energy source we'll definitely need to rely on is the work of the Devil, and the agricultural depletion of soil and diminishing groundwater supplies everywhere along with the loss of concrete-suitable sand... the loss of the resource that we make plastics and road tar out of could very well be the least of our problems over the next hundred years or so.

Really? My buddy's Tesla has a range of 400 miles. That's plenty
And no, the range is unlikely to stay low. Every issue you just mentioned are being addressed. Cobalt is being phased out for example. And methods are being created to effectively recycle and reuse the elements. Batteries are also getting lighter. Aviation is going to be harder to replace "electrically" but that doesn't mean mined petroleum fuels won't be able to be replaced through carbon capture created fuels.

But even if we can't replace aviation fuels in 30 years, we should able to replace petroleum and fossil fuels in passenger vehicles, trucking and industrial heat applications such as making concrete. If we can do that, we will have done a lot.

I'm convinced that it's important to get the ball rolling. Once we do, it's going to be a lot easier.

 

[Andy_Ross]

What is needed is a standard for a modular battery form facto so that it can be slid in and out of the car.

Then you go to the charging station and they just swap a charged battery for your depleted one.

As battery technology improves you get a battery with more capacity swapped out.

 

[acbytesla]

What is needed is a standard for a modular battery form facto so that it can be slid in and out of the car.

Then you go to the charging station and they just swap a charged battery for your depleted one.

As battery technology improves you get a battery with more capacity swapped out.

People were seriously looking into that. I dont see that is a likely solution any more. Both the range and ability to charge faster issues will be solved with better batteries in the next few years.

 

[bruto]

Really? My buddy's Tesla has a range of 400 miles. That's plenty
And no, the range is unlikely to stay low. Every issue you just mentioned are being addressed. Cobalt is being phased out for example. And methods are being created to effectively recycle and reuse the elements. Batteries are also getting lighter. Aviation is going to be harder to replace "electrically" but that doesn't mean mined petroleum fuels won't be able to be replaced through carbon capture created fuels.

But even if we can't replace aviation fuels in 30 years, we should able to replace petroleum and fossil fuels in passenger vehicles, trucking and industrial heat applications such as making concrete. If we can do that, we will have done a lot.

I'm convinced that it's important to get the ball rolling. Once we do, it's going to be a lot easier.

It seems to be an issue especially for deniers, but also sometimes for others, to demand all or nothing.

I recall long long ago, I think it was in Popular Science, a proposal for cheap, backyard windmills. The idea gained no traction, and was vociferously rejected by experts, because it would only reduce our oil consumption by about 20 percent. Why bother? Go big or go home.

Imagine if our oil consumption had been reduced by 20 percent for the last 40 years. And here we go again, it seems, with the problem that electric cars lack the range for many things. But so what? We get so hung up on absolutes that we forget how to live with two things at once. You could have a little electric car and still drive it to the tractor pull on weekends.

The same issue came up back in the wayback with emission controls. We can't get rid of all the pollution, it costs money and there's no law, so why bother to get rid of any? The car makers rejected small improvements for decades, until the problem got so bad they had suddenly to do it all at once, and the price they paid for decades of saving pennies was to go broke all at once building cars that barely ran at all, while the Japanese figured it out and ate their lunch.

And back a few decades ago, the same thing happened with river pollution. I grew up near the Housatonic River in Connecticut, and as a kid, it was so grossly polluted it left a brown scum on the banks. It stank. The few hardy fish were inedible. You could see, literally, turds floating down the river. Most of the towns in Massachusetts dumped raw sewage straight in, and GE in Pittsfield filled the river with toxic chemicals and PCB's. They all resisted efforts to do anything, claiming it was too expensive and complicated. Until, of course, it got so bad that regulators stepped in and made them do it all, all at once. The GE plant in Pittsfield closed. The towns had to up their taxes to punitive levels. (e.t.a. or floated bonds which enriched someone, but not their citizens!) What they could have done a little at a time they ended up having to do all at once.

It seems we (as a collective - obviously not us, the geniuses on the internet of course) never learn.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

I listen to a fun little podcast called “Skeptic’s Guide To The Universe” and frequent their forum.

One recent episode - #810, Jan 16, 2021 - had a brief but informed discussion about what are effectively “super capacitors” and how they could be used in EV’s. It starts around 10’ 26” in. They’re clearly not experts on this sort of thing, but I did find it quite interesting.

Available on your podcast aggregator of choice, or here:

https://www.theskepticsguide.org/podcasts/episode-810

 

[CapelDodger]

It was easy to miss, but I said Petroleum fuels. I fully expect Petroleum to continue to have those others uses. 30 years also might be overly optimistic. A couple of years ago I would have said 30 years would also be impossible. But I think we're rapidly approaching a tipping point where dramatic changes will take place.

Recent events have certainly shown up the dangers of globalised operations. Self-reliance has become more attractive, such as the sunshine and wind everybody gets. We know there's a near future which doesn't run on coal (19th Century) and oil (20th), so let's get there early and reap the advantage.

 

[MRC_Hans]

Recent events have certainly shown up the dangers of globalised operations. Self-reliance has become more attractive, such as the sunshine and wind everybody gets. We know there's a near future which doesn't run on coal (19th Century) and oil (20th), so let's get there early and reap the advantage.

Right. Much of it is obtainable with current technology. A certain ex-president made fun of people wanting to watch TV when no wind was blowing. However, a modern TV can run for hours on a battery that can fit in a drawer. Same with LED lights. A battery pack the size of what goes into an electric car can provide the average home with power for a couple of days. We just need to work with the fact that power may not be available from the grid in less than 20 milliseconds like we were used to.

Hans

 

[acbytesla]

It seems to be an issue especially for deniers, but also sometimes for others, to demand all or nothing.

I recall long long ago, I think it was in Popular Science, a proposal for cheap, backyard windmills. The idea gained no traction, and was vociferously rejected by experts, because it would only reduce our oil consumption by about 20 percent. Why bother? Go big or go home.

Imagine if our oil consumption had been reduced by 20 percent for the last 40 years. And here we go again, it seems, with the problem that electric cars lack the range for many things. But so what? We get so hung up on absolutes that we forget how to live with two things at once. You could have a little electric car and still drive it to the tractor pull on weekends.

The same issue came up back in the wayback with emission controls. We can't get rid of all the pollution, it costs money and there's no law, so why bother to get rid of any? The car makers rejected small improvements for decades, until the problem got so bad they had suddenly to do it all at once, and the price they paid for decades of saving pennies was to go broke all at once building cars that barely ran at all, while the Japanese figured it out and ate their lunch.

And back a few decades ago, the same thing happened with river pollution. I grew up near the Housatonic River in Connecticut, and as a kid, it was so grossly polluted it left a brown scum on the banks. It stank. The few hardy fish were inedible. You could see, literally, turds floating down the river. Most of the towns in Massachusetts dumped raw sewage straight in, and GE in Pittsfield filled the river with toxic chemicals and PCB's. They all resisted efforts to do anything, claiming it was too expensive and complicated. Until, of course, it got so bad that regulators stepped in and made them do it all, all at once. The GE plant in Pittsfield closed. The towns had to up their taxes to punitive levels. (e.t.a. or floated bonds which enriched someone, but not their citizens!) What they could have done a little at a time they ended up having to do all at once.

It seems we (as a collective - obviously not us, the geniuses on the internet of course) never learn.

The thing is we must address these problems if they are ever going to be solved. And once we make the commitment, we begin to find better and cheaper ways to address them.
Simply because we have to.

 

[Steve]

Really? My buddy's Tesla has a range of 400 miles. That's plenty And no, the range is unlikely to stay low. Every issue you just mentioned are being addressed. Cobalt is being phased out for example. And methods are being created to effectively recycle and reuse the elements. Batteries are also getting lighter. Aviation is going to be harder to replace "electrically" but that doesn't mean mined petroleum fuels won't be able to be replaced through carbon capture created fuels.

But even if we can't replace aviation fuels in 30 years, we should able to replace petroleum and fossil fuels in passenger vehicles, trucking and industrial heat applications such as making concrete. If we can do that, we will have done a lot.

I'm convinced that it's important to get the ball rolling. Once we do, it's going to be a lot easier.

Kinda depends, doesn't it. That range would not get me to the closest operating (due to COVID) airport and back. If I had to pick someone up it would require an overnighter to recharge the batteries.

And no way I can afford a Tesla on my fixed income. There are a lot of people in this world who will not be driving electric vehicles until they are ubiquitous enough that cheap, reliable second hand electric vehicles can be had.

 

[acbytesla]

Kinda depends, doesn't it. That range would not get me to the closest operating (due to COVID) airport and back. If I had to pick someone up it would require an overnighter to recharge the batteries.

And no way I can afford a Tesla on my fixed income. There are a lot of people in this world who will not be driving electric vehicles until they are ubiquitous enough that cheap, reliable second hand electric vehicles can be had.

Everything depends.

Where the hell do you live? And no it wouldn't likely require an over nighter.

My buddy's wife drives the Tesla most of the time and once every few months she drives it between Seattle and Medford, Oregon which is more than 400 miles away. That's from the middle of Washington State almost to the California border.
She stops once each way for a half hour charge. Usually has lunch. It's not an inconvenience. Or at least not much of one.

I can't afford a Tesla either. But product development cycles of items like this always begin with early adopters. But his Tesla is cheaper than his neighbor's F-350 diesel dually.

 

[Garrison]

Everything depends.

Where the hell do you live? And no it wouldn't likely require an over nighter.

My buddy's wife drives the Tesla most of the time and once every few months she drives it between Seattle and Medford, Oregon which is more than 400 miles away. That's from the middle of Washington State almost to the California border.
She stops once each way for a half hour charge. Usually has lunch. It's not an inconvenience. Or at least not much of one.

I can't afford a Tesla either. But product development cycles of items like this always begin with early adopters. But his Tesla is cheaper than his neighbor's F-350 diesel dually.

Yeah its an odd issue to raise, I mean how do you expect prices to come down unless people start buying them and Tesla can make more efficient use of their assets, potentially bringing the price of cars down. And of course there's the issue of self driving cars where you might not actually own one per se but simply have a contract whereby one turns up when you need it.

 

[Steve]

Where the hell do you live? And no it wouldn't likely require an over nighter.

My buddy's wife drives the Tesla most of the time and once every few months she drives it between Seattle and Medford, Oregon which is more than 400 miles away. That's from the middle of Washington State almost to the California border.
She stops once each way for a half hour charge. Usually has lunch. It's not an inconvenience. Or at least not much of one.

I can't afford a Tesla either. But product development cycles of items like this always begin with early adopters. But his Tesla is cheaper than his neighbor's F-350 diesel dually.

Ok, I don't really know much about the details of electric vehicles. I accept that stopping for a charge would merely add several hours to my day.

Sydney Nova Scotia has a commercial airport but COVID has caused it to be closed because airlines stopped flying here - not enough traffic. Halifax is the closest open airport. Driving distance one way is just over 400km (250 miles). I did that trip in early December. It was unpleasant enough that I would not look forward to having a even couple of hours added for charging. the tank of gas to get home took 5 minutes.

No way I could afford an F-350 or anything similar either. Las year I paid $17,000 for my current vehicle and that was a strain on finances. I hope it will last me 12 or 15 years, by which time I may be too old to drive.

 

[acbytesla]

Ok, I don't really know much about the details of electric vehicles. I accept that stopping for a charge would merely add several hours to my day.

Sydney Nova Scotia has a commercial airport but COVID has caused it to be closed because airlines stopped flying here - not enough traffic. Halifax is the closest open airport. Driving distance one way is just over 400km (250 miles). I did that trip in early December. It was unpleasant enough that I would not look forward to having a even couple of hours added for charging. the tank of gas to get home took 5 minutes.

No way I could afford an F-350 or anything similar either. Las year I paid $17,000 for my current vehicle and that was a strain on finances. I hope it will last me 12 or 15 years, by which time I may be too old to drive.

I get all that. The most I have ever paid for a vehicle is $15K. An EV is not a good fit for you or me at this moment. It may never be a fit. But I'm betting that at some time they will be.
They will come down in price over time. Musk is right now talking about Tesla building a $20,000 Tesla. In the meantime, Tesla just increased the price of the top of the line model S to over $120,000...ouch!

 

[acbytesla]

Yeah its an odd issue to raise, I mean how do you expect prices to come down unless people start buying them and Tesla can make more efficient use of their assets, potentially bringing the price of cars down. And of course there's the issue of self driving cars where you might not actually own one per se but simply have a contract whereby one turns up when you need it.

I don't think it's an odd issue at all. It's just a misapprehension about product development and consumer adoption.

People base their ideas on today and not on future paradigms that are at best educated ideas at this point.

Our lives and consumption patterns are going to change dramatically over the next 30 years. Even the experts barely have a grasp on how. We know that EVs and fully autonomous vehicles are going to radically change everything including vehicle ownership, insurance practices, traffic patterns and more.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

What is needed is a standard for a modular battery form facto so that it can be slid in and out of the car.

Then you go to the charging station and they just swap a charged battery for your depleted one.

No, that's not needed. It was tried back when batteries had much shorter range than now, and failed in the marketplace because nobody needed it. What's needed is faster charging in more places, and we are getting that.

The other thing needed is a change of behavior. You don't forget to charge your cell phone and expect to get a battery swap, even though until recently most phones had easily swappable batteries. We need to get out of the mentality that you must go to a gas station to 'fill up', and get into the habit of charging overnight or during planned stops on a long trip.

As battery technology improves you get a battery with more capacity swapped out.

As battery technology improves the range is increasing and charging time is reducing. If I had the money, I could buy an electric car today that has more range than I will ever use.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Ok, I don't really know much about the details of electric vehicles. I accept that stopping for a charge would merely add several hours to my day.

Sydney Nova Scotia has a commercial airport but COVID has caused it to be closed because airlines stopped flying here - not enough traffic. Halifax is the closest open airport. Driving distance one way is just over 400km (250 miles). I did that trip in early December. It was unpleasant enough that I would not look forward to having a even couple of hours added for charging. the tank of gas to get home took 5 minutes.

So due to the unprecedented Covid situation, you had to drive 400km to a far way airport, then turn straight around and drive back home again? A 500 mile round trip with only 5 minutes break in the middle, and so unpleasant that you couldn't stand staying any longer? That's your example of how an electric vehicle would 'add several hours to my day'?

A few years ago I drove a friend's car just over 400km non-stop, but there's no way I could have turned around and driven back again without a loong break (and breaks during the trip), especially now that I am older. That would be madness.

Las year I paid $17,000 for my current vehicle and that was a strain on finances.

My budget was less than half that and it didn't stop me from buying an electric car. If I need to take a really long trip I will hire a car or find some other solution.

I hope it will last me 12 or 15 years, by which time I may be too old to drive.

That's OK - you stick to your gas car because you are too old and set in your ways to change. But don't think your situation has any relevance to the rest of the world - because it doesn't.

 

[acbytesla]

No, that's not needed. It was tried back when batteries had much shorter range than now, and failed in the marketplace because nobody needed it. What's needed is faster charging in more places, and we are getting that.

The other thing needed is a change of behavior. You don't forget to charge your cell phone and expect to get a battery swap, even though until recently most phones had easily swappable batteries. We need to get out of the mentality that you must go to a gas station to 'fill up', and get into the habit of charging overnight or during planned stops on a long trip.

As battery technology improves the range is increasing and charging time is reducing. If I had the money, I could buy an electric car today that has more range than I will ever use.

I have saved Google News searches for "Solar breakthroughs, photovoltaic breakthroughs and battery breakthroughs.. Every other day there are new battery breakthroughs. Most I guess won't get out of the lab. But there are real advances being made right now. Huge amounts of money is being invested in factories for the making new batteries. Particularly, by Toyota, GM, VW, Panasonic and LG. Toyota is a very conservative company and they are throwing billions into solid state battery manufacturing. That's when you know it is real. Tesla is so far out in front but it is about to get competitive.

 

[SezMe]

Kinda depends, doesn't it. That range would not get me to the closest operating (due to COVID) airport and back. If I had to pick someone up it would require an overnighter to recharge the batteries.

And no way I can afford a Tesla on my fixed income. There are a lot of people in this world who will not be driving electric vehicles until they are ubiquitous enough that cheap, reliable second hand electric vehicles can be had.

Sounds like you may be atypical of the average commuting worker so basing policy on your circumstances would not be wise. The average American commute is 32 miles (16 each way) so a vehicle that has a range of 200 miles would do just fine and allow for weekend errands. If we solved that problem alone, it would be a huge change.

An even simpler solution is to dump the 5 day/ 8 hour day and go to 4/10 would make a big improvement alone.

 

[bonzombiekitty]

The other thing needed is a change of behavior. You don't forget to charge your cell phone and expect to get a battery swap, even though until recently most phones had easily swappable batteries. We need to get out of the mentality that you must go to a gas station to 'fill up', and get into the habit of charging overnight or during planned stops on a long trip.

I agree, but there's a very large infrastructure cost there in urban areas. Around me, vanishingly few people have garages (as it should be for an urban area) and there are very few parking lots (as it should be for an urban area),so just about everyone parks on the street. Streets would have to get lined with charging stations. For a big city, that's not a simple task and introduces a chicken and egg problem. There's no political will to start lining the streets with charging stations because not enough people own electric cars, and people are slow to buy electric cars because there's no charging options.

I'd seriously consider buying an electric vehicle (or a plug-in hybrid with a relatively short electric range) except I don't have a place I can charge it over night. That, and the ones that would fit my needs best are too expensive. If I move in the next couple years, my next new car may be an electric one. Right now it looks like a Tesla is the most likely option, largely because their charging network is convenient for my needs for my decently common long trips

 

[gnome]

People were seriously looking into that. I dont see that is a likely solution any more. Both the range and ability to charge faster issues will be solved with better batteries in the next few years.

There is one other huge plus to this that makes it valuable--it means that the car owner isn't putting thousands of dollars out when the battery needs replacing. That would be paid by the swap stations, and spread out into the cost of each swap.