Effect of Hamas Attacks and Israeli Reponse on US Politics

[Brainster]

There's already a thread on the effect on Israeli politics, but it is becoming clear that there may be a significant impact in the US as well. The National Muslim Democratic Council sent an ultimatum to the White House yesterday:

The situation in Gaza has reached a critical juncture, nearing a complete humanitarian catastrophe, and we implore you to take immediate action to secure a ceasefire by Tuesday, October 31st at 5 p.m. EST. As President, you possess the power and responsibility to influence this situation and work toward a just and enduring resolution. A ceasefire stands as the crucial first step to prevent further loss of life and suffering in Gaza.

We pledge to mobilize Muslim, Arab, and allied voters to withhold endorsement, support, or votes for any candidate who did not advocate for a ceasefire and endorse the Israeli offensive against the Palestinian people.

That deadline of course has passed, without a call from the White House for a ceasefire. And while it may seem like an empty threat, it is plain that Biden is losing support from Arabs:

Support for his upcoming reelection bid from Arab Americans dropped by 42 percentage points, from 59 percent in 2020 to 17 percent, according to a new poll conducted by the Arab American Institute.

The poll found that if the election were held today, 40 percent said they would vote for former President Trump, the GOP front-runner. In 2020, 35 percent of those polled said they would vote for him.

And it's not just the Arabs; the kids aren't alright:

But none of the ways that Biden has responded to the conflict have been received favorably by young Americans. That same Quinnipiac poll found that 51 percent of voters under 35 say they disapprove of the United States’ sending weapons and military support to Israel—a much higher figure than the 28 percent of Americans who oppose such a policy. Only 21 percent of voters under 35 say they approve of Biden’s Israel policy; 42 percent of voters across all age brackets approve.

Note that the Slate article definitely pushes the take that Biden should change his mind and quickly:

Still, if Biden does lose in 2024, and young people don’t turn out, many Democrats will be quick to blame the listless youth for not taking seriously the stakes of the election. But that critique would also be directly applicable to Biden, who, staring down a close and critical reelection campaign that could decide the fate of American democracy, seems content to endanger votes that he needs in pursuit of an unpopular policy.

 

[angrysoba]

I think a more honest thread title would be on the effect of the Israeli reprisals rather than the Hamas attacks.

 

[Brainster]

I think a more honest thread title would be on the effect of the Israeli reprisals rather than the Hamas attacks.

I know there is one side that would rather we focus on the former and forget about the latter. Didn't know you were on that side.

 

[Lithrael]

How would the Hamas attacks affect the general attitude towards Israel? Almost everybody already supported Israel. The Hamas attacks just showed some fence-sitters the severity of the malice Israel deals with.

Of course Israel's response is going to have a greater effect on US politics.

I'm getting real sick of the claim that being more interested in the thing that's worth talking about, is antisemitism and/or excusing the thing that, once you've said "that was a shocking atrocity" there is not a lot to add.

As far as the effect on US politics, the main obnoxious thing I've seen so far is the usual agitator claims that "Biden is hurting his chances with young radical voters by supporting Israel" which some young people buy, not considering (or caring or understanding why) he'd alienate an order of magnitude more voters by appearing in any way soft on terrorism, even before getting into any actual nuance.

And of course the foxy commentators telling their audience that Biden is fumbling everything about it in every possible way and the world thinks he's embarassing and bad; but they say that about everything so it's less interesting.

 

[angrysoba]

I know there is one side that would rather we focus on the former and forget about the latter. Didn't know you were on that side.

You are quoting people talking about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. They are not citing the terrorist attacks perpetrated by Hamas.

It would be similar to someone saying they would not vote for George W Bush because he invaded Afghanistan and Iraq. It would be fatuous to claim that people who withheld their vote from George W Bush must have done so because they were Al Qaeda sympathizers.

 

[Brainster]

You are quoting people talking about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. They are not citing the terrorist attacks perpetrated by Hamas.

It would be similar to someone saying they would not vote for George W Bush because he invaded Afghanistan and Iraq. It would be fatuous to claim that people who withheld their vote from George W Bush must have done so because they were Al Qaeda sympathizers.

Don't understand your analogy, but I was intentionally copying the "Effect of Hamas Attacks on Israeli Politics," and added the bit about "and Israeli response," so it would seem that your griping about a "more honest thread title" is a bit silly and in fact a diversion.

And yes, the chattering class is taking Hamas' lead and talking about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and conveniently not citing the terrorist attacks perpetrated by Hamas. I'm not going along with that.

 

[Stacyhs]

From the OP's original link quote:

A ceasefire stands as the crucial first step to prevent further loss of life and suffering in Gaza.

We pledge to mobilize Muslim, Arab, and allied voters to withhold endorsement, support, or votes for any candidate who did not advocate for a ceasefire and endorse the Israeli offensive against the Palestinian people.

I doubt there will be much impact on the Dems from this group. I took a look at their website and there wasn't much there. The last post made there by the group before this announcement was dated August 2018 congratulating Tlaib on her election. They have a whopping 271 followers.

A ceasefire will allow Hamas time and opportunity to strengthen its forces, armaments and other supplies. This is a terrorist group that has stated it will attack Israel again and again until it is annihilated:

Hamas Official Ghazi Hamad said: "The al-Aqsa Flood is just the first time and there will be a second, a third, a fourth because we have the determination, the resolve and the capabilities to fight.

"Will we have to pay a price? Yes, and we are ready to pay it. We are called a nation of martyrs and are proud to sacrifice martyrs."

He added: "Israel is a country that has no place on our land. We must remove that country because it constitutes a security, military and political catastrophe to the Arab and Islamic nations, and must be finished. We are not ashamed to say this, with full force. We must teach Israel a lesson and we will do this again and again."

"It is Israel, not us. We are the victims of the occupation. Therefore, nobody should blame us for the things we do. On October 7, October 10, October 1,00,000 - everything we do is justified."

Hamas doesn't care about the Palestinian people being killed because they see them as martyrs in a holy campaign. They use their own people as shields.

 

[angrysoba]

Don't understand your analogy, but I was intentionally copying the "Effect of Hamas Attacks on Israeli Politics," and added the bit about "and Israeli response," so it would seem that your griping about a "more honest thread title" is a bit silly and in fact a diversion.

And yes, the chattering class is taking Hamas' lead and talking about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and conveniently not citing the terrorist attacks perpetrated by Hamas. I'm not going along with that.

Ah, sorry. My mistake. For some reason, I did not read the bit about "Israeli reponse", and assumed it was essentially the same thread title about Israeli politics.

I take it back about the "honest thread title" thing. Sorry.

 

[Brainster]

Ah, sorry. My mistake. For some reason, I did not read the bit about "Israeli reponse", and assumed it was essentially the same thread title about Israeli politics.

I take it back about the "honest thread title" thing. Sorry.

 

[Orphia Nay]

Biden treads the middle line.

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — President Joe Biden said he thought there should be a humanitarian “pause” in the Israel-Hamas war, after his campaign speech Wednesday evening was interrupted by a protester calling for a cease-fire.

“I think we need a pause,” Biden said.

https://apnews.com/article/422ed95081e5fe224dd9f0ed7920c4e8

 

[Puppycow]

It's a difficult situation for a US president to be in. Obviously, whatever he does will displease some people. And Trump could benefit if only he knew how to keep his mouth shut at the right time. He has to say something about the matter but he used the opportunity to air his personal grievances and make dubious claims that somehow it wouldn't have happened if he had been president.

In my analysis, Biden was only elected last time because so many people were voting against Trump. Biden was the only viable alternative to Trump, whether you liked him or not. I still think that most of those people will remember why they voted against Trump. Polls this far out are not very meaningful.

 

[Brainster]

It's a difficult situation for a US president to be in. Obviously, whatever he does will displease some people. And Trump could benefit if only he knew how to keep his mouth shut at the right time. He has to say something about the matter but he used the opportunity to air his personal grievances and make dubious claims that somehow it wouldn't have happened if he had been president.

In my analysis, Biden was only elected last time because so many people were voting against Trump. Biden was the only viable alternative to Trump, whether you liked him or not. I still think that most of those people will remember why they voted against Trump. Polls this far out are not very meaningful.

This is certainly right. A friend of mine expressed disbelief that 80 million people voted for Biden. My reply was that maybe 50 or 60 million voted for Biden; the rest of Biden's voters were casting their vote against Trump, or left that line unfilled. Including at least one conservative poster on this forum.

I don't disagree about the polls this far out, but I do think there are some reasons for concern if you don't want Trump again. The younger voters who came out in droves for Biden were never going to be reliable party-line voters, but presumably the ones who did come out tended to be more politically informed than the average. And those young adults skew way against Israel.

And as noted in the one article the poll (conducted by Zogby, on behalf of the Arab American Institute) of Muslims showed a staggering decline in support for Biden. Now it's true that Jews outnumber Muslims in the US and are generally more established and wealthier and more likely to contribute to their favorite party (usually the Democrats), but there are battleground states like Michigan where the latter group form a much larger voting block.

 

[Puppycow]

but there are battleground states like Michigan where the latter group form a much larger voting block.

This is something that could be important, if they fail to show up for Biden. After all, there is a district there that sent Rashida Tlaib to congress. While I don't think many of those voters would vote for Trump, if they don't vote at all, or vote for a protest candidate or something, it could be a problem. Her district was critical for winning Michigan last time.

 

[Brainster]

Thought I'd mention this startling poll result:

A majority of young Americans said they believe Israel should “be ended and given to Hamas,” according to a shocking poll.

The survey, conducted THIS WEEK by Harvard-Harris polling, found 51% of Americans between the ages of 18 and 24 said they believed the long-term answer to the Israel-Palestinian conflict was for “Israel to be ended and given to Hamas and the Palestinians.”

Now it should be noted that some of the other poll results contradict that outcome (for example, 69% of those same 18-24-year-olds say Israel has a right to exist as Jewish state), but if you're looking for a reason why Biden seems to be losing the youth vote, this seems like a pretty good candidate.

 

[angrysoba]

Thought I'd mention this startling poll result:



Now it should be noted that some of the other poll results contradict that outcome (for example, 69% of those same 18-24-year-olds say Israel has a right to exist as Jewish state), but if you're looking for a reason why Biden seems to be losing the youth vote, this seems like a pretty good candidate.

Yeah, I'm glad you looked at the other polling data, because it does seem a bit weird. Over half also support US military aid to Israel so it makes little sense for them to argue that it should be ended. Similarly, it looks like most people agree that Hamas are genocidal terrorists. That said they then say that oppression justifies their genocidal terrorism.

 

[Solitaire]

Thought I'd mention this startling poll result:

Now it should be noted that some of the other poll results contradict that
outcome (for example, 69% of those same 18-24-year-olds say Israel has
a right to exist as Jewish state), but if you're looking for a reason why Biden
seems to be losing the youth vote, this seems like a pretty good candidate.

Biden can thank his lucky stars he's not Taylor Swift.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

Thought I'd mention this startling poll result:



Now it should be noted that some of the other poll results contradict that outcome (for example, 69% of those same 18-24-year-olds say Israel has a right to exist as Jewish state), but if you're looking for a reason why Biden seems to be losing the youth vote, this seems like a pretty good candidate.

Have you any source for said "polling data"?

 

[Brainster]

Have you any source for said "polling data"?

Second link in the article goes here. The question on whether Israel should be ended and turned over to Hamas is on page 69. The question on Israel's right to exist is on page 57.

 

[Puppycow]

Biden can thank his lucky stars he's not Taylor Swift.

I think it's just fine for celebrities like Taylor Swift to say nothing at all.

I'm sure that she has thoughts about it, as we all do, but it's not her fault and not her responsibility to do anything about it. It certainly isn't her "lane" if you know what I mean.

Biden, on the other hand, as president, does have a responsibility to both speak about it and do things about it. Whatever he says and whatever he does is bound to not please many people. Either he is too supportive of Israel, to some, or not supportive enough, to others. He probably wishes that didn't have to say anything at all, like Taylor Swift.

 

[Brainster]

Bunch of Hamas supporters chanted Let's Go Brandon outside the White House last night, and were kind enough to test the fence:

Video shows the crowd shaking the fence so viciously that a section of it became partially dislodged while a horde of Secret Service police pushed back to keep the ralliers from entering the grounds.

Some protesters hurled water bottles and the sticks broken off their Palestinian flags at the officers, while others tried to climb the fence.