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Effect of Hamas attack on Israeli politics?

Anyone with more knowledge have any ideas?

Since you asked nicely ;)

A lot of posters here don't really know what they're talking about.
So here's a bit more internal "scoops"

First, anyone who thinks Netanyahu will resign over this is living in a dreamland. Ain't going to happen. Anyone who think he will be ousted is also completely clueless. The rumors of so called rebels within his party have been laughably repeated for years and nothing ever came out of it. In particular after Saar left the party - and barely managed to get elected in the first place and currently has to hide under Gantz's umbrella.

The party itself has long ago been hijacked by the far right extremists.
Something that Feiglin started years ago by bringing droves of his people to sign up for the party - get the right to vote in the primaries and then you see when the general elections come that nobody in their settlement voted for Likud in the first place.

So while there are a lot of Likud voters who would much rather kick the extremists out in the future - their opinion barely matters as they don't get to vote in the primaries.
 
Bibni's big claim has always been he has been able to keep Israel safe. That just blew up with the greatest intelligence failure in Isreali history, and the most massive attack . That is gone.

Sadly, another wrong assumption.
The fruits of his campaign or already visible as multiple people close to him have already began to go on the offensive in the media.

One of his many nicknames is "the magician" and like any good magician, he knows how to use misdirection to move the audience attention.

Their media talks are already pressing that this was mostly the protesters faults for making Hamas think the army is weak and will not be functioning in a time of actual crisis.

It's pretty self evident that the country is not united in the political sense. People have made amazing things in an attempt to get support for the victims and those suffered and they will continue to do so.

But I doubt they will wait even until everything blows over to start blaming each other. The opposition will blame the government and the government will blame the opposition. The people in the streets will do the same.

This will likely make him go a bit lower in the polls, but by the time an actual election comes (not anytime soon) they will go up again.

His coalition partners might go down for sure. But more likely they will have other people grabbing their votes from their own camps.
 
From what I can gather, right now, theres unity in Israel. I mean its essentially like September 2001 in the USA. But as soon as the emergency is over, he's almost certainly done.
Not a good analogy.
The world today is not what it was 20 years ago. Not in Israel, not in the USA or the rest of the world.

The left\right division has reached insane levels of hatred at the moment.
It's enough to hear any program with people from opposite sides of the political divide (loads of them, I could send links here all day).

They all say "it's not the time to discuss that but... it's all your fault"
 
And if the demand is..as it will be..to release hundreds of HAMAS fighters to stage more attacks?
You really are not living in the real world.

Qatar is mediating, and the current demand appears to be an initial hostage swap for 36 Palestinian women and children (minors) in Israel's prisons.

I'm predicting that the two sides will eventually discuss mechanism for IDF KIA exchanged for the return of thousands of HAMAS cadavers.
(1500 bodies of killed infiltrators are being reportedly held by Israel; no information on captured or wounded)

In the real world, Israel has negotiated and released masses of prisoners in the past. (see: Gilad Shalit, 1027 prisoners for him)

I was about to say something similar. In the real world, all kinds of pragmatic solutions happen that clash with people’s sense of justice.

Another example of exchange was when Israel negotiated the return of some of the remains of IDF soldiers for living Hizbollah-backed terrorists such as Samir Kuntar who smashed a baby’s head with a rifle. That’s the real world.
 
Unless he just seizes total power by cancelling the elections on security grounds.

I hate to say it, but this is nonesense propaganda. I am by no means a supporter of his, but this is a flat out impossibility. Not legally, not politically, not publicly - nothing.

The next general elections are a long time from now and the odds of the government toppling itself before that is slim to none. They have no reason to do so at the moment, the further we get from this, the better their state is.

They only way an election would even be called for is if his coalition partners decide to vote no confidence on the government - thus forcing an election.
Except his partners are far more in danger than Bibi himself so they have no motive to do so.
 
Not really the time to be dissecting the IDF response (or lack thereof) but one thing stands out in this mess. The lone tank at the fenceline, having been disabled and the crew (dead) removed/absconded into Gaza.
Who ordered a single tank to go up into that breach in the border fortification (a breach created by a Bangalore-type device)? This is the same type of IDF command failure that led to one APC M113 vehicle being decimated by HAMAS RPG's in past encounters --- I know of some APC crews that refused to enter Gaza in those rolling death-traps. (IDF had to develop a better armored carrier after that fiasco).
 
I can't imagine what the next elections in Gaza will produce regarding political leadership.

Sorry, I couldn't resist a little levity.
 
Israel’s electoral system is Proportional Representation and, I think, the Party List version.

This means, in practice, that most governments have to be coalitions.

In this case I think Netanyahu’s party won 23% and as Netanyahu is the leader or the top of the part list, then he would become prime minister if he could form a coalition.
Correct.

Essentially, the country at the moment was practically turned into a 2 party system. There are multiple parties, but they all pretty much boycott each other that there are only 2 configurations possible. The Bibi side and the anti-Bibi side (I don't even want to call them left\right. Ideology has little to do with it)

So Bibi's side got the majority (64 out of 120 seats)
 
I can't imagine what the next elections in Gaza will produce regarding political leadership.

Sorry, I couldn't resist a little levity.

There not had been an election in Gaza since 2006 when HAMAS took over.
What a wonderful group HAMAS is.
 
Correct.

Essentially, the country at the moment was practically turned into a 2 party system. There are multiple parties, but they all pretty much boycott each other that there are only 2 configurations possible. The Bibi side and the anti-Bibi side (I don't even want to call them left\right. Ideology has little to do with it)

So Bibi's side got the majority (64 out of 120 seats)

Then why did Bibi need the support of the fringe religious Parties?
 
Then why did Bibi need the support of the fringe religious Parties?

Because you have to form a coalition to create a government in Israel. This is just how it always is in the Party List PR system that Israel has (note: the issue is not with a parliamentary system which is where you initially pointed the finger of blame).
 
Because you have to form a coalition to create a government in Israel. This is just how it always is in the Party List PR system that Israel has (note: the issue is not with a parliamentary system which is where you initially pointed the finger of blame).

He stated that Bibi's party got 64 votes. I presumed he meand Likud, Mabye he meant all the forces who voted for Bini in the Parliament.
And I know how things work in a Parliamentary system.
 
I have to wonder why the population voted Bibi in in the first place? What made them favor the war monger/hardliner?
So many things are wrong with this sentence alone.

Bibi is by no means a warmonger. In fact, he's a complete joke in that regard. He has been in office longer than any other person and he barely left any marks.

Not just in the security sense - in any sense (economical, religious etc)
Most PMs had some sort of legacy they left behind.
Bibi does nothing. He avoids confrontation with absolute madness. His resolution to anything has always been to just throw money at it - Hamas included.
Warmongering is not his forte.

In fact, it was he who initially through the idea that it's about time an arab party will make it into a government.
The man is by no means a right wing extremist with racist agendas.
He has no agendas other than keeping himself in power.


So what did happen?
Starting with 2013, there have been seeds in the opposition parties to boycott the man himself. Why?
Part of it is because he kept stabbing all his partners in the back and they had enough of him. Partly it was because they kept losing to him and thought that campaign would work.

I want to be clear on this - while the man absolutely earned the fact that nobody trusts him (including his partners who were caught on tape saying it) - the reasons for the boycott were not based on any ideology.
I can say this as a fact since half the people in the boycott later tried to join him - or gave excuses such as "we don't deal with people who have legal charges against them" shortly before begging other party leaders with legal charges against them to join their coalition.

The point is that the boycott movement made it so essentially Israel became like a 2 party system. "us" and "them".
Essentially, even moderate people had to choose one way or another.

And what separates "us" and "them"? Same thing all over the world. Conservatives vs Liberal. Religious vs Secular. Racism. The big cities vs the outskirts. The deep state elite vs the ignorant appressed masses.

Technically, in the election, the other side had more votes. But because the anti-Bibi side was not as organized as Bibi's side, a lot of those votes went to parties that didn't get enough votes to be counted, and thus their votes did not count.

Overall, at least before this whole thing started, it's pretty much a 50-50 thing with every tiny technical thing shifting the balance. That's why Israel had 6 election in the span of 4 years.


The more extremist came from Ben-Gvir. A person who up until recently made everyone throw up just thinking of the possibility of him making into parliament. But he tried to make an appearance of being slightly more moderate and frankly younger population did not remember all his past dealings. He was considered the "outsider" who will straighten things out.
Pretty much closest to our version of Trump.


Ever since he was elected, everyone are trying to restrain his lunacy and most likely if anyone is getting the boost after this? It's probably him over Bibi.
 
I was about to say something similar. In the real world, all kinds of pragmatic solutions happen that clash with people’s sense of justice.

Another example of exchange was when Israel negotiated the return of some of the remains of IDF soldiers for living Hizbollah-backed terrorists such as Samir Kuntar who smashed a baby’s head with a rifle. That’s the real world.

SO glad you are so dimissive of justice. A Lack of justice will make a better world.
I think things are diffreent this time around because of the scale of the HAMAS atrocities and the fear factor of what hundreds of HAMAS fighters released would mean.
I have the feeling that the hostages might be secondary right now.
 
Since you asked nicely ;)

A lot of posters here don't really know what they're talking about.
So here's a bit more internal "scoops"

First, anyone who thinks Netanyahu will resign over this is living in a dreamland. Ain't going to happen. Anyone who think he will be ousted is also completely clueless. The rumors of so called rebels within his party have been laughably repeated for years and nothing ever came out of it. In particular after Saar left the party - and barely managed to get elected in the first place and currently has to hide under Gantz's umbrella.

The party itself has long ago been hijacked by the far right extremists.
Something that Feiglin started years ago by bringing droves of his people to sign up for the party - get the right to vote in the primaries and then you see when the general elections come that nobody in their settlement voted for Likud in the first place.

So while there are a lot of Likud voters who would much rather kick the extremists out in the future - their opinion barely matters as they don't get to vote in the primaries.

Thanks. As I said, I'm not too current on Israeli politics.

I hate to say it, but this is nonesense propaganda. I am by no means a supporter of his, but this is a flat out impossibility. Not legally, not politically, not publicly - nothing.

The next general elections are a long time from now and the odds of the government toppling itself before that is slim to none. They have no reason to do so at the moment, the further we get from this, the better their state is.

They only way an election would even be called for is if his coalition partners decide to vote no confidence on the government - thus forcing an election.
Except his partners are far more in danger than Bibi himself so they have no motive to do so.

And thanks again.
 
He stated that Bibi's party got 64 votes. I presumed he meand Likud, Mabye he meant all the forces who voted for Bini in the Parliament.
And I know how things work in a Parliamentary system.
Indeed, when I talked about 64 seats, I mean his block.

The division is:
32 Likud - Bib's party
14 Zionisit-Jewdisim - The Ben-Gvier\Smotrich party
11 Shas - The sphardic hardeic party
7 Yahadut-Hatorah - The Ashkenazi haredic party
 
Might not be the opposition alone. Likud is not monolithic, and many in Likud have not liked Bibi for some time. and were appaled by his stacking the cabinent with the Religiious Hardliners. Many in Likud are pretty secular, and don;t like the relgiious parties any more then the opposition parties do.A deal could be struck.

There will be a brief period of unity while the whole country mother ***** Bibi. Sadly, "The last guy was a dick and we all hate him," has heretofore not proven to be a sound basis upon which to form a government.
 
SO glad you are so dimissive of justice. A Lack of justice will make a better world.
I think things are diffreent this time around because of the scale of the HAMAS atrocities and the fear factor of what hundreds of HAMAS fighters released would mean.
I have the feeling that the hostages might be secondary right now.

We're talking about Bibi. So assume everything is secondary to him staying in power.

He would have no problem making a deal and releasing murderers from prison if he thinks it would help him politically.
He did that in the past.


The issue he has now, is that his current partners are not likely to let him do that. That is the main issue, his hands are mostly tied. He long ago lost any control over them.

Heck, the whole mess of the judicial reform is not even his initiative and the main person promoting it (Levin) already threatened him once that the partners support him and will oust Bibi from the right.


Bibi never had this kind of government. He always had at least one left party in the government - so he could easily blame them for everything he didn't want to or couldn't do or just flat out failed to do.

His hope is that if they left finally come together and join him, that it will give him some leverage to silence the extremists and gain some sense of control.
 
A lot is going to depend on what happens on the Battlefield. It goes badly, Bibi might find himself facing a vote of no confidence. Hell, that even happened to Churchill at on point in world war 2.
 

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