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Effect of Hamas attack on Israeli politics?

Trebuchet

Penultimate Amazing
Trebuchet
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Nov 20, 2003
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I'd like to keep this very focused please, there are other threads for discussion of the general situation.
I've heard several talking heads on the more liberal media (CNN & MSNBC) suggesting that the fact that Israel was taken by surprise will seriously weaken Netanyahu, forcing him to put moderates into his cabinet or even cause his government to fall.
Somehow that seems unlikely -- I suspect he may just use it as an excuse to strengthen his authoritarian regime. But I know very little about Israeli politics. Anyone with more knowledge have any ideas?
 
One very narrow element of this is the absolute failure of the Israeli security apparatus. Some preliminary reporting that those at the top were asleep at the wheel despite quite clear warnings. Claims that Netanyahu was laser focused on keeping West Bank settlers happy and not overly concerned about warnings about Gaza.

Egypt intelligence official says Israel ignored repeated warnings of ‘something big’
Cairo official says Israel focused on West Bank instead of Gaza; Egypt’s spy chief said to warn PM of ‘terrible operation,’ Netanyahu’s office denies

However, Israel was not only ignoring clear warnings from its allies.

For Palestinians in Gaza, Israel’s eyes are never very far away. Surveillance drones buzz constantly in the skies. The highly secured border is awash with security cameras and soldiers on guard. Intelligence agencies work sources and cyber capabilities to draw out information.

But Israel’s eyes appeared to have been closed in the lead-up to the surprise onslaught by the Hamas terror group, which broke through Israeli border barriers and sent hundreds of terrorists into Israel to carry out a brazen attack that killed over 700 people and wounded over 2,000.

Israel’s intelligence agencies have gained an aura of invincibility over the decades because of a string of achievements. Israel has foiled plots seeded in the West Bank, allegedly hunted down Hamas operatives in Dubai and has been accused of killing Iranian nuclear scientists in the heart of Iran. Even when their efforts have stumbled, agencies like the Mossad, Shin Bet and military intelligence have maintained their mystique.
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https://www.timesofisrael.com/egypt-intelligence-official-says-israel-ignored-repeated-warnings-of-something-big/

Unclear whether this will be a scandal with any staying power or will be lost in the general war fever.
 
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My guess:

In the short term, this helps Bibi and his coalition, and there won't be any protests against the judicial reforms while the military operation is underway.

But Bibi and his allies will probably lose the next election because of this failure.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
My guess:

In the short term, this helps Bibi and his coalition, and there won't be any protests against the judicial reforms while the military operation is underway.

But Bibi and his allies will probably lose the next election because of this failure.
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Bibni's big claim has always been he has been able to keep Israel safe. That just blew up with the greatest intelligence failure in Isreali history, and the most massive attack . That is gone.
 
dudalb said:
Bibni's big claim has always been he has been able to keep Israel safe. That just blew up with the greatest intelligence failure in Isreali history, and the most massive attack . That is gone.
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From what I can gather, right now, theres unity in Israel. I mean its essentially like September 2001 in the USA. But as soon as the emergency is over, he's almost certainly done.
 
There will be an emergency, unity government for a while...and then the opposition parties will take Bibi's political head.
 
lobosrul5 said:
From what I can gather, right now, theres unity in Israel. I mean its essentially like September 2001 in the USA. But as soon as the emergency is over, he's almost certainly done.
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I dunno, wasn't there a similar screwup from Bush regarding the 9/11 attacks?

A cynical leader can keep stoking the war fever forever. It can be years, decades even, before there's any sober reevaluation of what happened.
 
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Trebuchet said:
G. W. Bush was re-elected in 2004, even after the Iraq war was a proven failure.
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Hey, we had transparently false slander against an actual war veteran and so chose the guy who avoided real service so he could snort coke while flying airplanes.

So it's perfectly understandable why we chose not to bite the turtle midstream (or some other mixed metaphor).
 
I've heard some of the folks who were already protesting this summer are angry and frothing to protest more once things calm down, but that's the only news I personally get out of Israel.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
My guess:

In the short term, this helps Bibi and his coalition, and there won't be any protests against the judicial reforms while the military operation is underway.

But Bibi and his allies will probably lose the next election because of this failure.
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Unless he just seizes total power by cancelling the elections on security grounds.
 
Craig4 said:
There will be an emergency, unity government for a while...and then the opposition parties will take Bibi's political head.
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Might not be the opposition alone. Likud is not monolithic, and many in Likud have not liked Bibi for some time. and were appaled by his stacking the cabinent with the Religiious Hardliners. Many in Likud are pretty secular, and don;t like the relgiious parties any more then the opposition parties do.A deal could be struck.
 
dudalb said:
I can't see how he gets hostages back without a major humiliation for Isreal. Israel is in no mood for that.
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Israel can have revenge afterwards - getting the hostages back first is the smart move.
You can heal from a humiliation, but not a bullet in the head.
 
TurkeysGhost said:
I dunno, wasn't there a similar screwup from Bush regarding the 9/11 attacks?

A cynical leader can keep stoking the war fever forever. It can be years, decades even, before there's any sober reevaluation of what happened.
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Trebuchet said:
G. W. Bush was re-elected in 2004, even after the Iraq war was a proven failure.
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I have to wonder why the population voted Bibi in in the first place? What made them favor the war monger/hardliner?

Were tensions growing? Because when they elected him you could predict terrorist attacks to increase. The scale of this was unpredictable, but increasing tensions further was.


Trebuchet said:
Unless he just seizes total power by cancelling the elections on security grounds.
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That would not surprise me. I'm not there so it's hard to judge if the population will blame Bibi for his failure? Or think it was fortuitous he was in charge when this happened?

Even after that PDB came out which said "Bin Laden determined to attack inside the US" and Clarke's book, Against All Enemies, people in this country got angry when anyone tried to blame the events of 9/11 on Bush. There was a lot of evidence directly exposing all the things Bush ignored. Still to this day they dislike Bush because he invaded Iraq, not because he purposefully ignored all the warnings Clinton gave him that allowed Bin Laden to carry on his plan.

So will they blame Bibi or let him off the hook on the corruption charges and his undemocratic changes to their court?


The Great Zaganza said:
Israel can have revenge afterwards - getting the hostages back first is the smart move.
You can heal from a humiliation, but not a bullet in the head.
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Unless they are doing something in secret, Bibi already announced there would be no negotiations over the hostages.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
I have to wonder why the population voted Bibi in in the first place? What made them favor the war monger/hardliner?

Were tensions growing? Because when they elected him you could predict terrorist attacks to increase. The scale of this was unpredictable, but increasing tensions further was.


That would not surprise me. I'm not there so it's hard to judge if the population will blame Bibi for his failure? Or think it was fortuitous he was in charge when this happened?

Even after that PDB came out which said "Bin Laden determined to attack inside the US" and Clarke's book, Against All Enemies, people in this country got angry when anyone tried to blame the events of 9/11 on Bush. There was a lot of evidence directly exposing all the things Bush ignored. Still to this day they dislike Bush because he invaded Iraq, not because he purposefully ignored all the warnings Clinton gave him that allowed Bin Laden to carry on his plan.

So will they blame Bibi or let him off the hook on the corruption charges and his undemocratic changes to their court?


Unless they are doing something in secret, Bibi already announced there would be no negotiations over the hostages.
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I hate Bibi, but this sounds a bit too much like "Blame the VIctim" to me.
It is fine to hate that moron Bibi, but if you don't hate HAMAS even more something is wrong.
As to how he was elected, it does not work like it does in the US. He got elected by making a deal in the Israeli Parliament with a couple of fringe Religious parties who had only three or four votes, but were enough to make him PM.
This is a reason why I do not want the US to go to a pure Parliamentary system.
 
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The Great Zaganza said:
Israel can have revenge afterwards - getting the hostages back first is the smart move.
You can heal from a humiliation, but not a bullet in the head.
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And if the demand is..as it will be..to release hundreds of HAMAS fighters to stage more attacks?
You really are not living in the real world.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
I have to wonder why the population voted Bibi in in the first place? What made them favor the war monger/hardliner?

Were tensions growing? Because when they elected him you could predict terrorist attacks to increase. The scale of this was unpredictable, but increasing tensions further was.


That would not surprise me. I'm not there so it's hard to judge if the population will blame Bibi for his failure? Or think it was fortuitous he was in charge when this happened?

Even after that PDB came out which said "Bin Laden determined to attack inside the US" and Clarke's book, Against All Enemies, people in this country got angry when anyone tried to blame the events of 9/11 on Bush. There was a lot of evidence directly exposing all the things Bush ignored. Still to this day they dislike Bush because he invaded Iraq, not because he purposefully ignored all the warnings Clinton gave him that allowed Bin Laden to carry on his plan.

So will they blame Bibi or let him off the hook on the corruption charges and his undemocratic changes to their court?


Unless they are doing something in secret, Bibi already announced there would be no negotiations over the hostages.
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Israel’s electoral system is Proportional Representation and, I think, the Party List version.

This means, in practice, that most governments have to be coalitions.

In this case I think Netanyahu’s party won 23% and as Netanyahu is the leader or the top of the part list, then he would become prime minister if he could form a coalition.
 
dudalb said:
And if the demand is..as it will be..to release hundreds of HAMAS fighters to stage more attacks?
You really are not living in the real world.
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Qatar is mediating, and the current demand appears to be an initial hostage swap for 36 Palestinian women and children (minors) in Israel's prisons.

I'm predicting that the two sides will eventually discuss mechanism for IDF KIA exchanged for the return of thousands of HAMAS cadavers.
(1500 bodies of killed infiltrators are being reportedly held by Israel; no information on captured or wounded)

In the real world, Israel has negotiated and released masses of prisoners in the past. (see: Gilad Shalit, 1027 prisoners for him)
 
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