What a 'defund the police' plan in Seattle might look like

[arthwollipot]

After watching the documentary, Seattle is Dying, my immediate reaction was that SPD spends way, way, too much time and manpower dealing with mentally ill people. There was one clip of a homeless guy raging with a bicycle as 5-7 cops try to negotiate with him. And they were reduced to being mental health professionals, as it appears they were not permitted to use physical force to restrain him. According to the video, the confrontation went on for hours.

Now, would I rather have mental health pros handling the situation? Yes, obviously, but given the violent and threatening behavior the homeless guy displayed, I think at least a few cops needed to be there.

Quite possibly. How representative of the average person having a mental health crisis do you think that was?

 

[Brainster]

Quite possibly. How representative of the average person having a mental health crisis do you think that was?

Oh, I am quite certain it was an extreme event. But this guy has been arrested dozens of times; Seattle surely has a caseworker assigned to him, so the idea there's a magic bullet that a sociology major can provide seems unlikely.

And again, I'm not saying some functions of the police can't be handed off to social workers. I just think that you're going to find that reducing the size of the force will increase crime, particularly coming on the heels of nightly protests against them.

 

[uke2se]

The point being argued is to defund the police AND redistribute the funds to various other social programs that would provide aid to those in need. Not to defund the police and use the money for a huge kegger.

 

[Brainster]

The point being argued is to defund the police AND redistribute the funds to various other social programs that would provide aid to those in need. Not to defund the police and use the money for a huge kegger.

Thanks for clearing that up for us. I still say the crime rate is going to soar, but the citizens will no doubt feel better knowing that at least there are well-funded social programs to help them cope with the increased violence and theft in the city.

 

[cullennz]

The point being argued is to defund the police AND redistribute the funds to various other social programs that would provide aid to those in need. Not to defund the police and use the money for a huge kegger.

Would be an incredibly dim thing to do in my humble opinion, but may be worth it for entertainment value when it all goes tits up.

 

[uke2se]

Thanks for clearing that up for us. I still say the crime rate is going to soar, but the citizens will no doubt feel better knowing that at least there are well-funded social programs to help them cope with the increased violence and theft in the city.

Might cause crime to soar, but it doesn't have to. Data suggests it wouldn't. Here's an article from ACLU that discusses it: https://www.aclu.org/news/criminal-law-reform/defunding-the-police-will-actually-make-us-safer/

One major point to consider is that even if you feel safer with lots of police around, there are others who feel less safe. The police in the US is built on racist foundations, and even if we are to assume that they as an institution are needed in society (I say this as an LEO), the rotten core of US policing makes their intended role very difficult. For me, this isn't just a question of defunding the police. That's a start, but more is needed. I'd argue for a phazed disbandment of all existing police units and a reformation with new leadership (and overall lineup), new mandates and a new vision of their role.

 

[Ziggurat]

Might cause crime to soar, but it doesn't have to. Data suggests it wouldn't. Here's an article from ACLU that discusses it: https://www.aclu.org/news/criminal-law-reform/defunding-the-police-will-actually-make-us-safer/

That's... not data. That's opinion. None of the data presented in that link actually address the claim that defunding would improve crime stats.

One major point to consider is that even if you feel safer with lots of police around, there are others who feel less safe. The police in the US is built on racist foundations

Apparently it's massively racist in favor of Asians. Who knew?

 

[Arcade22]

No, I improve the quality of training by simply not training them in what they don't need to be trained in. Don't spend the money training the police, spend the money on mental health crisis services instead.

So that they would become even worse at handling people undergoing a mental health crisis? Even-though they are invariably going to deal with such people? I'm not sure exactly how you can consider that a good idea.

Services which, I should add, are pretty badly underfunded in most places.

I'm pretty sure you can have well funded police and well funded mental health care.

Jack of all trades, master of none. Why not make them master of one trade, and other people masters of the other trades?

Again there's no reason why you can't have specialists working at the police. Not every police officer needs to be an expert at handling mentally ill or unhinged individuals, but they all ought to have at least a little bit of training in doing so.

In a majority of cases, there is no risk to those responders. You're talking like every person undergoing a mental health crisis is necessarily a danger to themselves or to others. Most people requiring mental health crisis services are a danger to no-one and do not require an armed response by someone poorly trained in mental health who is sure to misinterpret the situation and assume, the way you do, that someone undergoing a mental health crisis is necessarily dangerous. In that case, the "when all you have is a hammer" analogy applies and someone dies.

I'm sure the unions would love to argue with you about the safety of first responders once one or two people end up dead or critically wounded and when their ambulances get trashed by bored youth after they leave them unattended for a couple of minutes.

Also, ambulances and fire fighters attend situations without police backup all the time.

Even in the bad neighborhoods?

 

[Brainster]

Might cause crime to soar, but it doesn't have to. Data suggests it wouldn't. Here's an article from ACLU that discusses it: https://www.aclu.org/news/criminal-law-reform/defunding-the-police-will-actually-make-us-safer/

That article is short on data and long on assertions. I am always amused that people care that the initial police in America were slave-catchers. It's an interesting bit of trivia, but just because a tool was once used for evil purposes doesn't mean the tool itself is evil. Every civilized society has some form of police, for the simple reason that it's a good idea.

One major point to consider is that even if you feel safer with lots of police around, there are others who feel less safe. The police in the US is built on racist foundations, and even if we are to assume that they as an institution are needed in society (I say this as an LEO), the rotten core of US policing makes their intended role very difficult. For me, this isn't just a question of defunding the police. That's a start, but more is needed. I'd argue for a phazed disbandment of all existing police units and a reformation with new leadership (and overall lineup), new mandates and a new vision of their role.

Interesting ideas and they may actually get put into practice in some of the cities we are talking about. That's one of the benefits of having a large nation; the rest of us get to observe what Portland and Seattle experiences before deciding whether it's worth emulating. My guess is that there will be large increases in crime and not just property crime, but homicides. Granted, these cities aren't Baltimore, so they start from a lower base, and this being the year of covid, crime actually had been down quite a bit in the spring. But my guess is that this year's homicides in both cites come in 20% higher or more than last year's, and that next year's will be higher still.

 

[deadrose]

Wow, Seattle has a lot of work to do in the rest of this year to even tie last year's crime numbers. Crime seems to have been dropping since March. Wonder why that is.

Here's a useful resource Seattle Crime Dashboard, as reported by the police department.

It's possible figures will go up for recent weeks, what with all those charges of felony graffiti and aggressive loitering.

Also "Seattle is Dying?" was a conservative hit piece put out by the local Sinclair Media station. That's the conglomerate who forces their affiliates to run their op-eds, and sometimes makes the local air personalities record scripts to make it seem local, like this . They are very biased.

 

[Safe-Keeper]

I know I shouldn't point this out but somebody should tell Vox that if you have a young journalist with a squeaky little-girl voice, having her use kids' toy blocks as props might undercut the notion that this is a serious presentation on an adult topic.

So I take it you had no issues with the actual statements in the video, since all you're commenting on is the journalist's voice ?

 

[Safe-Keeper]

This reminds me of an old thread where the OP was terribly offended after a killing had taken place and someone somewhere had dared imply that the crime rate in the area was partly to do with a lack of activities for kids and teens, leaving them to hang around street corners or throw parties with drugs and/or alcohol, and commit petty crimes.

This was apparently "making excuses for vile criminals", because you weren't supposed to ask why crime occurred, or work on preventive measures, it's as simple as people just needing to decide not to be criminals. People who kill other people are just bad people, period, and trying to prevent them from deciding to do crime is like trying to prevent Mondays from happening.

Implying that it might just be a bad thing if the police force is overfunded, and that social services, health, etc. are underfunded, and that drawing funds from the overfunded police to underfunded services, seems to be similarily verboten among certain people here for some reason.

 

[Safe-Keeper]

That article is short on data and long on assertions. I am always amused that people care that the initial police in America were slave-catchers. It's an interesting bit of trivia, but just because a tool was once used for evil purposes doesn't mean the tool itself is evil.

My, oh my. If it isn't squeaky girl's voices, it's irrelevant trivia. If only they didn't make these mistakes so that you'd have time to actually comment on their actual arguments.

 

[HoverBoarder]

Wow, Seattle has a lot of work to do in the rest of this year to even tie last year's crime numbers. Crime seems to have been dropping since March. Wonder why that is.

Here's a useful resource Seattle Crime Dashboard, as reported by the police department.

Pandemic are not a good or long term crime prevention tool.

There is a lot of disinformation getting pushed by the radical left in Seattle right now.

Unfortunately with pretty deadly consequences.

 

[HoverBoarder]

Meanwhile, Minneapolis has moved ahead with its proposed defund the police plan.

We've already seen what the response will be--hiring of private security guards. But in a particularly delicious bit of hypocrisy, three of the city councilmembers who voted in favor of defunding are currently being protected by private security guards:

Yeah, it's probably right-wingers (or maybe just property owners) making the threats, but guess what? Cops are there to protect you from right-wing goons and everyday criminals and left-wing anarchists.

I keep thinking about Baltimore and the immediate (and persistent) roughly 50% increase in homicides that followed the Freddie Gray riots. When we think of homicides usually, the cops are only there in the aftermath--to collect evidence from the crime scene and to try to nab the perp. But it turns out that cops prevent a lot of homicides as well, and not in the sense that they shoot the gun out of the killer's hand. Their presence in the community is a constant warning to those who would break the law, that you might have to suffer the consequences of your action. If society diminishes that possibility, isn't it likely that criminals reassess the risk/reward tradeoff?

That is just amazing. The Defund idea is such a poorly thought out plan, and it is really unfortunate that it will take a huge pile of dead bodies for many people to figure that out.

$63,000 for three week of private security protection for these pro defund council members. There are certainly not a lot of residents who will be able to afford that. Not to mention that some of the major employers in the area had their buildings burned down in the riots, and are not likely to come back.

What a self made mess.

 

[Brainster]

Wow, Seattle has a lot of work to do in the rest of this year to even tie last year's crime numbers. Crime seems to have been dropping since March. Wonder why that is.

Here's a useful resource Seattle Crime Dashboard, as reported by the police department.

Yes indeed, that is an excellent resource. While it is true that crimes like Robbery and Aggravated Assault (two "social" crimes in the sense that we would expect them to decline this year) are off, homicide is slightly ahead of pace while arson and burglaries are way, way up.

It's possible figures will go up for recent weeks, what with all those charges of felony graffiti and aggressive loitering.

Hmmm, wondering where those would fit in the crime dashboard. I'm guessing nowhere (they only seem to be tracking serious crime), so good news! The crime rate will not be soaring because of felony graffiti and aggressive loitering.

Also "Seattle is Dying?" was a conservative hit piece put out by the local Sinclair Media station. That's the conglomerate who forces their affiliates to run their op-eds, and sometimes makes the local air personalities record scripts to make it seem local, like this . They are very biased.

The piece was obviously agenda journalism and I am familiar with Sinclair. That said, it did make a pretty persuasive case that Seattle police are forced to deal with the same core group of homeless and mentally ill people repeatedly due to the revolving door of arrest and release.

 

[Arcade22]

Implying that it might just be a bad thing if the police force is overfunded, and that social services, health, etc. are underfunded, and that drawing funds from the overfunded police to underfunded services, seems to be similarily verboten among certain people here for some reason.

Well for one thing they probably should do it a little bit more gradually. Or do you think people will immediately cut back on committing crimes proportionally to the 50% budget cut just because?

 

[Brainster]

The SS Portland is steaming full speed ahead towards the iceberg:

Portland police are scrambling to respond to 15 homicides in the city so far in July. That’s the most killings in one month in more than three decades, they said.

So far this year, 24 people have died in homicides in Portland.

Check out the graph on shootings--up every month compared to last year with the sole exception of March (for obvious reasons).

 

[TurkeysGhost]

The SS Portland is steaming full speed ahead towards the iceberg:



Check out the graph on shootings--up every month compared to last year with the sole exception of March (for obvious reasons).

The police haven't been defunded. Seattle PD is operating as it had before the protests and there's still a spike in murders. Likewise for Portland.

I'm not sure what the point is in citing these murders in cities that have stated an intent to defund or heavily reform their police departments in the future.

Murder is up in all major cities, including those that haven't promised to dismantle their police departments. This increase in murders is occurring despite bloated police budgets.

 

[Brainster]

The police haven't been defunded. Seattle PD is operating as it had before the protests and there's still a spike in murders. Likewise for Portland.

Not true. Portland disbanded its gun violence reduction team:

He noted that the bureau was forced to cut its Gun Violence Reduction Team at the direction of the City Council. The 34-member team was disbanded July 1 as a result of budget cuts to police units that have targeted a disproportionate number of black people in traffic stops.

So the gun violence reduction team gets disbanded at the beginning of July, and gun violence soars during July. It is seldom that data is that clear.

I'm not sure what the point is in citing these murders in cities that have stated an intent to defund or heavily reform their police departments in the future.

Because the level of policing appears to be inversely related to the homicide rate.

Murder is up in all major cities, including those that haven't promised to dismantle their police departments. This increase in murders is occurring despite bloated police budgets.

You're right about murder being up across the board and so maybe Portland's blip in July will just turn out to be a statistical oddity. I'm betting it's not.