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Trump's Second Term

steenkh said:
It will last precisely until Hamas is supposed to dearm. When they refuse, the Israelis can then continue stamping out the Palestinians, and this time there are no hostages to worry about. I wonder what Trump will say about his 8th war starting again, apart from sending Israel more bombs.
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Israel no longer having the hostage situation to deal with is a good point. I don't trust either Hamas or Netanyahu.
 
turingtest said:
*But not a literal Nazi- and "literal" is another one of those expressions that people seem to have improperly glommed onto. I once heard a lady on one of those idiotic ghosthunter TV shows claim that something she saw on a video feed "literally scared me to death." I groaned out loud at that one- and I do mean literally out loud.
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This literally made me laugh out loud!
 
I'm taking a little break from all this madness, but I had to post this:

561815899_1809526349923315_1932532673709765135_n.jpg
 
LiteBright said:
These are American style odds. You can convert them to an implied probability. Here is what that yields.

2025 10%
2026 15.38%
2027 11.11%
2028 9.09%
2029 or later 73.54%

Does the site say where they are getting these numbers from? I am a professional gambler with accounts at 13 different outs and I don't see a single one offering odds on this. Furthermore, no site actually would offer those odds because there is virtually no overlay. It doesn't make sense numerically speaking. Perhaps an exchange as those work differently and often don't have an overlay or even a negative overlay.
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This would mean that the "true" probability (the percentage of the total bets made on each outcome) are as follows:

2025 8.4%
2026 12.9%
2027 9.3%
2028 7.6%
2029 or later 61.7%

If the betting site paid out according to the given odds then it turns out that no matter which outcome comes to pass, they would pay out 84% of the total bets they received as winnings and keep the other 16% for themselves. I don't know if this is an actual betting site but with those odds, I would avoid them.
 
As of the close of the day on October 5, my positive/negative score on the Trump administration stands at -1,451.

5 October 2025
-1: Trump repeats the lie that Portland is a war zone [716]
-1: And does it again [717]
-1: Trump brags about the naval might of the US while ignoring land locked countries [718]
-1: Trump greatly exaggerates the US role in World Wars I and II [719]
-1: Trump to the Navy: “I was president in 2016. And then they rigged the election on me. And then we caught ‘em, didn’t we?”
-1: Trump repeats his lie that he’s settled seven or eight wars [720]
-1: Trump blames losing the wars in Vietnam and Afghani dan on “political correctness” [721]
-1: Trump falsely claims the US shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico is 92% (it’s closer to 52%) [722]
-1: Trump exaggerates his physical fitness [723]
-1: Trump: “Let’s go back two years...We had this horrible, horrible president who had no clue what the hell was happening.”
-1: Headline: A ‘hostile takeover’: ousted CDC official raises alarm over RFK Jr approach to infectious disease (Guardian)
-1: Representative Pat Harrington (R-NC) says Chicago and Portland are reporting “50 murder every weekend.” [724]

References:
716. Trump on Portland ruling: “I wasn’t served well by the people who pick judges. I appointed the judge and it goes like that. If he made that decision—Portland is burning to the ground… all you have to do is look at the TV and read your newspapers. That judge ought to be ashamed of himself.”

717. Trump: “Portland is burning to the ground—insurrectionists all over the place. The politicians are afraid for their lives. That’s the only reason they say there’s nothing happening.”

718. Trump: “The instant US carrier, cruiser, or destroyer breaks across the horizon, every tyrant and adversary on the planet know their choice is very simple. It’s leave America in peace or be blown up in fire and fury never seen before.”

719. Trump: “We won World War 1. We won World War 2. We won everything in between. We won everything before. And all of the sudden they decide to change the name. They went woke then too, you know. Woke is a long term. Word.”

720. Trump: “No one should ever want to start a fight with the USA. They won’t fight. We’re putting out a lot of fights, though. Did you see that? We’re gonna be close to number eight. We don’t want to send you into battle unless-- unless it’s necessary, right?”

721. Trump: “The problem with Vietnam, we, you know, we stopped fighting to win. We would’ve won easy. We would’ve won Afghanistan easy. We would’ve won every war easy. But we got politically correct. ‘Oh, let’s take it easy.’ We’re not politically correct anymore, just so you understand.”

722. Trump: “For years I’ve looked at it. And I added it up and I figured -- we have 92% of the frontage. I say, ‘How come we call it the Gulf of Mexico?’ I mean, I wouldn’t say that Mexico is thrilled with me, but what are you gonna do. It’s the Gulf of America.”

723. Trump: “He was my doctor in the White House...He was also the doctor for Barack Hussein Obama, have you heard of him? And he was the doctor for a man named Bush. At a press conference, they asked him...’Who is the best physical specimen of the three?’ He said ‘That’s easy, President Donald Trump.’”

724. Rep. Pat Harrigan defends Trump’s deployment of troops to cities: “I don’t think it’s wrong for members of the administration to characterize places like Chicago and Portland as war zones when they are putting up stats of about 50 murders a weekend.” (There have been 58 murders in Portland all year as of Oct. 1.)
 
We need the Epstein files now! Spring is too late (martial law)
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Thanks to a judge in Florida, more news has been released on the Epstein Files.

We now know “Doe 174” is none other than Donald J Trump.
Doe 174 flew to Epstein’s island (apparently he actually did have the privilege 🤮) several times.

Doe 174 flew to Epstein’s island with — any guesses? Junior Mint 😲
More:
www.businessinsider.com

The newly unsealed Jeffrey Epstein documents have Donald Trump's name all over them. He had been secretly disguised as 'Doe 174.'

Former President Donald Trump may have fought to keep his name redacted in court documents before a judge ordered it unsealed.
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com
 
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SkyeLight said:
POTUS would have been right at home with the other war criminals that were given (not won) the Nobel Peace Prize: Henry Kissinger & Barak Obama. Let us not forget that Alfred Nobel was an arms manufacturer.
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Let’s not forget that his father manufactured munitions for the government during the Crimean War.
Alfred did not. Sins of the father, eh?
 
Tero said:
We need the Epstein files now! Spring is too late (martial law)
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Thanks to a judge in Florida, more news has been released on the Epstein Files.

We now know “Doe 174” is none other than Donald J Trump.
Doe 174 flew to Epstein’s island (apparently he actually did have the privilege 🤮) several times.

Doe 174 flew to Epstein’s island with — any guesses? Junior Mint 😲
More:
www.businessinsider.com

The newly unsealed Jeffrey Epstein documents have Donald Trump's name all over them. He had been secretly disguised as 'Doe 174.'

Former President Donald Trump may have fought to keep his name redacted in court documents before a judge ordered it unsealed.
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com
Click to expand...
That's spicy. So .. not Donald, not Don, but actually Doe. Who would have thunk ..
 
Tero said:
We need the Epstein files now! Spring is too late (martial law)
www.threads.com

Threads • Log in

Join Threads to share ideas, ask questions, post random thoughts, find your people and more. Log in with your Instagram.
www.threads.com www.threads.com
Thanks to a judge in Florida, more news has been released on the Epstein Files.

We now know “Doe 174” is none other than Donald J Trump.
Doe 174 flew to Epstein’s island (apparently he actually did have the privilege 🤮) several times.

Doe 174 flew to Epstein’s island with — any guesses? Junior Mint 😲
More:
www.businessinsider.com

The newly unsealed Jeffrey Epstein documents have Donald Trump's name all over them. He had been secretly disguised as 'Doe 174.'

Former President Donald Trump may have fought to keep his name redacted in court documents before a judge ordered it unsealed.
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com
Click to expand...
That article is dated January 8, 2024.

www.threads.com

Zero Hour for Democracy (@zero.hour.for.democracy) on Threads

Donald Trump Disguised As Doe 174 in Epstein Documents - Business Insider None of this is new!!! This article is from January 2024!!
www.threads.com www.threads.com
 
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As of the close of the day on October 6, my positive/negative score on the Trump administration stands at -1,463.

6 October 2025
-1: Trump suggests he’ll use the Insurrection Act if the courts, governors, or mayors interfere [725]
-1: Trump claims the situation in Portland is an insurrection [726]
-1: Trump repeats his claim to NewsMax [727]
-1: Trump wonders why a governor wouldn’t accept “free” help to assist with normal crime levels [728]
-1: Trump announces a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy duty trucks [729]
-1: Trump boasts his tariffs have “ended” at least four wars [730]
-1: Trump claims the situation in Chicago is among the worst in the world [731]
-1: Trump repeats his claim from Aug 19 that officials wondered where billions came from until he suggested tariffs [732]
-1: Pam Bondi says if Sen Dick Durbin will not “protect” Chicago, Trump and the National Guard will [733]
-1: Pam Bondi say the probe into Homan accepting $50,000 cash was closed due to no evidence of wrongdoing [734]
-1: FBI director Kash Patel says the FBI will crush violent crime in Chicago, even though crime is down over last year [735]
-1: Monica Crowley (Chief of Protocol) praises Trump’s and Hegseth’s “real masculinity” [736]

References:
726. Trump “We have an Insurrection Act for a reason. If I had to enact it, I’d to that ... if courts were holding us up or governors or mayors were holding us up, sure, I’d do that.”

727. Trump: “Portland is on fire. Portland’s been on fire for years. And not so much saving it -- we have to save something else. Because I think that’s all insurrection, criminal insurrection.”

728. NEWSMAX: “The Insurrection Act. Is that going to be formally invoked?”
TRUMP: “If you take a look at what’s been going on in Portland, it’s been going on for a long time, that’s insurrection.”

729. Trump: “Why is it that a governor wouldn’t accept free help from regardless? Whether it’s National Guard or the military or anybody. Women raped and beaten and knocked to hell and the same with men, where they are being shot all over the place.”

730. Trump: “Beginning November 1st, 2025, all Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks coming into the United States from other Countries will be Tariffed at the Rate of 25%. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

731. Trump: “I’ve ended seven wars. At least half of them was because of my ability at trade and because of tariffs. If I didn’t have tariffs to throw around a little bit, you would have at least 4 wars waging with thousands of people a day being killed ... we’re getting close to settling 8.”

732. Trump on Chicago: “It’s probably worse than almost any city in the world. You could go to Afghanistan, you could go to a lot of different places.”

733. Trump: “Recently they said they found billions of dollars. And they couldn’t understand -- I said, ‘check the tariff shelf.’ And they come in the next hour and they say, ‘Sir, you’re right, it was from the tariffs.’”

734. Bondi: “I wish you loved Chicago as much as you hate the president. Currently, the National Guard are on their way to Chicago. If you will not protect your citizens, the president will.”

735. Senator Hirono: “Did you approve closing the Homan bribery investigation?”
Bondi: “The DOJ and FBI conducted a thorough review and found no credible evidence of wrongdoing. You were also on video outside the WH protesting with a group called Casa where antifa members were. Does that mean you’re a member of antifa?”
Hirono: “I have to conclude that, since no wrongdoing was determined, that Homan kept the money. And I hope he will put that on his tax returns as income.”

736. Kash Patel: “Chicago will be saved, and this FBI will continue to crush violent crime there, and all around the country. Heading to the Windy City now.”

737. Monica Crowley: “What a difference a presidency makes. We are now totally over that destructive, stupid era of toxic masculinity, and now we’re in an era of real masculinity thanks to the bold muscular leadership of President Trump and our Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. We saw that in bold relief yesterday.”
 
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