Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 6

[The Don]

It seems to be the "If I can't have it, no one can" syndrome. I suspect Russia would b quite happy for the bulk of Ukraine to become a depopulated wilderness.

I disagree, they need people there to exploit the natural and agricultural resources. They want those people to be Russian.

 

[lobosrul5]

I disagree, they need people there to exploit the natural and agricultural resources. They want those people to be Russian.

Yes, and I don't think Russia's goal is to ethnically cleanse all Ukrainians in Ukraine. Its to "russify" them, pacify them, and extract their resources. Russia has a declining and aging population its not as if they need extra living space for Russians. But, I do think they plan to kill off anyone they even slightly suspect of dissent, including anyone involved in the Ukrainian government or intelligentsia executed or interred. And, also turn a blind eye to any rape, murder, and pillaging that their armed forces commit.

But, their efforts to make life so miserable as to force the Ukrainian's into surrender appear to be woefully inadequate. In 2022, Russia only managed to capture and hold perhaps 10% of Ukraine (excluding what they already had). And their missile strikes seem to be damaging perhaps 10 buildings a day on average.

ETA: I really don't mean to be a Russia apologist. Saying they only intend to murder some of Ukraine's population and essentially enslave the rest in no way makes them the "good" guys or is an excuse for Ukraine to be pressured into surrendering.

 

[Jimbo07]

So, I've seen commentaries that Russia is learning and getting better, and that they're not to be underestimated. I've seen others that say they can't learn.

but now

Russian ammunition depot destroyed in front line town in Luhansk, regional official says - CNN rolling

So, are the Russians getting better, or is it same-old/same-old?

 

[lobosrul5]

So, I've seen commentaries that Russia is learning and getting better, and that they're not to be underestimated. I've seen others that say they can't learn.

but now



So, are the Russians getting better, or is it same-old/same-old?

Well, if they didn't have a barracks next to their ammo dump, I suppose they're getting better?

I don't think its easy as saying: lets learn our lessons! The Russians may not have the logistical capability to keep their ammo dumps out of Ukrainian range and be able to supply sufficient ammo to their frontlines. And solving that is not as easy as pressing a button.

ETA: I don't think its a matter of Russian being willing or not to get better. I think its impossible. For example, what intelligent person would volunteer to become a Russian military officer at this point?

 

[SpitfireIX]

As we've discussed, a lot of Russia's most serious problems would take years, or even decades, to fix, assuming they could even be fixed without radically reforming the entire Russian system.

 

[Doubt]

So, I've seen commentaries that Russia is learning and getting better, and that they're not to be underestimated. I've seen others that say they can't learn.

but now



So, are the Russians getting better, or is it same-old/same-old?

Likely not getting better. The officers are something less than the best and the brightest of the Russian population. The education of their military academies isn't worth anything outside of the military. They tried and failed to develop a professional NCO corps.

Months into the conflict I saw video of Russian defensive positions. They would have been better off not even digging in given how badly built they were. They had been in those positions for months and had not made any real improvements.

If they get better it will be due to some of them being candidates for Darwin awards. The less dumb will live longer.

 

[Arcade22]

The ministry also suggested that as revenge for the attack, it launched airstrikes at a “hardware concentration” near Druzhkivka railway station in Donetsk, killing up to 200 Ukrainian personnel, and destroying four Himars launchers and more than 800 rockets.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...commemoration-in-russia-after-makiivka-strike

I just love these kind of Russian fantasies because they are so stupid. It's pure copium.

 

[Arcade22]

In a grim video released over new year, Prigozhin – a key ally of Putin – was filmed visiting a basement near the eastern front filled with the bodies of his fighters, many of them convicts, who had been killed during the bitter fighting for the city, a key Russian objective since the summer.

In the makeshift morgue, Prigozhin is seen being shown bodies on stretchers and in body bags. One pile of bagged bodies can be seen stacked shoulder-high in the corner of one of the rooms.

“Their contract has finished, they will go home next week,” Prigozhin can be heard saying, adding: “These are getting ready to be sent. We all work during New Year’s Eve.

“Here lie Wagner fighters who died at the front. They are now being put in zinc coffins and they will return home.”

As more bodies are seen being taken off a truck, Prigozhin can be heard offering new year greetings.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-cost-as-russian-offensive-stalls-in-bakhmut

Such is the life of a Russian. Nasty, brutish and short. Happy holidays!

 

[Lukraak_Sisser]

Well, if they didn't have a barracks next to their ammo dump, I suppose they're getting better?

I don't think its easy as saying: lets learn our lessons! The Russians may not have the logistical capability to keep their ammo dumps out of Ukrainian range and be able to supply sufficient ammo to their frontlines. And solving that is not as easy as pressing a button.

ETA: I don't think its a matter of Russian being willing or not to get better. I think its impossible. For example, what intelligent person would volunteer to become a Russian military officer at this point?

A patriot?

The US is not the only country to have them and Russian propaganda has been focused on the hyper-macho culture for a long time.

One more reason to be very wary of patriotism in general, it's easily abused.

 

[The Don]

The Russians have increased the number of recruits they admit have died in Makiivka:

Russia also raised the number of Russian soldiers killed in the attack to 89 - up from 63

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64159045

The true number is anyone's guess though I would be more inclined to think that it's nearer the Ukrainian claim of "several hundred" than the Russian claim.

Of course in addition to the number killed there are likely at least the same number injured.

 

[jimbob]

A patriot?

The US is not the only country to have them and Russian propaganda has been focused on the hyper-macho culture for a long time.

One more reason to be very wary of patriotism in general, it's easily abused.

The thing is that such a person might start as honest and competent, but if he* wanted promotion, he'd have to play the game. There is nobody to report corruption to because it's built into the system. All the way from Putin and Shoigu to the lowest NCO.

And once playing the corruption game it would be very difficult to stop. A foreign war is unlikely to be sufficient

 

[erwinl]

The Russians have increased the number of recruits they admit have died in Makiivka:



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64159045

The true number is anyone's guess though I would be more inclined to think that it's nearer the Ukrainian claim of "several hundred" than the Russian claim.

Of course in addition to the number killed there are likely at least the same number injured.

My first choice in cases like this is a simple 'double the one, half the other and if the two numbers come together(ish), there's your ballpark number'.

In this case, with first Ukranian guesses up to 300-400 and Russian now op to 83, I'd guess the true number to be somewhere between 150-200(ish).

Edit: And then there are the wounded, of course.

 

[jimbob]

My first choice in cases like this is a simple 'double the one, half the other and if the two numbers come together(ish), there's your ballpark number'.

In this case, with first Ukranian guesses up to 300-400 and Russian now op to 83, I'd guess the true number to be somewhere between 150-200(ish).

Edit: And then there are the wounded, of course.

That would be giving someone weight to Russian claims.

They admit to the least embarrassing number that they cannot deny only. Still only admitting to 1 killed and 27 missing in the sinking of the Moskva, for example.

Admitting fewer deaths also makes economic sense, as there's less compensation and someone can still collect their wages.

 

[erwinl]

That would be giving someone weight to Russian claims.

They admit to the least embarrassing number that they cannot deny only. Still only admitting to 1 killed and 27 missing in the sinking of the Moskva, for example.

Admitting fewer deaths also makes economic sense, as there's less compensation and someone can still collect their wages.

Sure.
But you have to get the start numbers from somewhere.

As for the Moskva. They admit to 28 dead (in cases like this I count the missing as dead). I think this is not completely impossible.
In 1982 HMS Conventry lost 19 killed during her sinking. But that was in a ship half the size of Moskva and with half of the crew. She did sink faster than Moskva, though.

Do I think there were more dead, during the sinking of Moskva? Yes, I do. But not that many more, as she did float for quite a bit, before she finally sank.

Edit: HMS Sheffield lost 20 dead, if I read it correctly. So the 28 from Moskva do not sound impossible to me.

 

[dudalb]

The Russians have increased the number of recruits they admit have died in Makiivka:



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64159045

The true number is anyone's guess though I would be more inclined to think that it's nearer the Ukrainian claim of "several hundred" than the Russian claim.

Of course in addition to the number killed there are likely at least the same number injured.

Every anylist I have seen is saying Moscow is outrageouly low balling the numbers. Death toll is certainly in the low hundreds.

 

[dudalb]

As we've discussed, a lot of Russia's most serious problems would take years, or even decades, to fix, assuming they could even be fixed without radically reforming the entire Russian system.

Things will just get worse for Russia until Putin is gone. No guarantee things will get better with his demise, but things certanily won't get better until he kicks the bucket.

 

[Oystein]

So, I've seen commentaries that Russia is learning and getting better, and that they're not to be underestimated. I've seen others that say they can't learn.

but now



So, are the Russians getting better, or is it same-old/same-old?

This isn't an either/or situation.
"The" Russians are surely learning (it's unavoidable, given that they are, in spite of all appearances to the contrary, humans). But of course not all of them are learning, and those who are learning do not learn everything, and they fail to use some of the stuff they learn. Such are humans: learners, but imperfect ones.

So you will see aspects of tactics and strategy where the Russian invasion force has learned some, and others where they keep blundering.

Same with the Ukrainians, of course, qualitatively - but there's a difference in quantity: Who are they learning from? Russia seems to be learning mostly from experience, while Ukraine is learning both from experience and from superior Western doctrine and military science: This way, Ukraine closed a gap in capabilities between 2014 and 2022, and is now pulling ahead with each day that goes by with Ukrainian officers being trained e.g. in the UK.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

Things will just get worse for Russia until Putin is gone. No guarantee things will get better with his demise, but things certanily won't get better until he kicks the bucket.

Or someone kicks it for him, which I'd say is more likely.

 

[Oystein]

My first choice in cases like this is a simple 'double the one, half the other and if the two numbers come together(ish), there's your ballpark number'.
...

While this heuristics, when it works out that way, may provide you with a first idea that may be in the right ball parc, I think it would be unwise to stick with a "factor 2" rule. There is no propaganda handbook that instructs propagandists to double good-news numbers and half bad-news numbers. Some numbers are made up whole cloth were reality is zero / factor is infinity.

And even if the other side goes by a factor-two rule: Once you let them know you divide or mutiply by 2, they may take that into account and change to a factor-four rule.

I have a real-world anecdote for this:
I used to work in IT support for the national sales office (150 employees) of some chemical company. One collegue in our team of three (let me call him "Hans") had a knack for working out details and was usually the first to come up with estimated figures for cost and duration when we were thinking about some major change to the IT landscape or other such projects. However, after a while, we noticed that Hans' estimates were consistently too low by a factor of 4. How long would it take till we establish an outsourced first level phone support? Hans said 3 months; it took a year. What will it cost to move network and workstations to a new office? Hans said 50,000 Deutsche Mark, we ended up paying 200,000. So when a new purchase, change, project rolled in and we asked Hans for an estimate, and he said half a year, quarter million DM, we multiplied by 4 without telling him, and it would work out nicely, we'd finish within 2 years at half a million Marks.
Then, someone made a grave mistake and told Hans that we multiplied his estimates by 4.
From that point on, Hans divided his estimates by four, thinking we'd multiply by four to arrive at his actual estimate, but we adapted quickly and learned to multiply by 16... (before the next round of escalation and us using a factor of 256, a company merger dispersed the team).

 

[theprestige]

This isn't an either/or situation.
"The" Russians are surely learning (it's unavoidable, given that they are, in spite of all appearances to the contrary, humans). But of course not all of them are learning, and those who are learning do not learn everything, and they fail to use some of the stuff they learn. Such are humans: learners, but imperfect ones.

So you will see aspects of tactics and strategy where the Russian invasion force has learned some, and others where they keep blundering.

Same with the Ukrainians, of course, qualitatively - but there's a difference in quantity: Who are they learning from? Russia seems to be learning mostly from experience, while Ukraine is learning both from experience and from superior Western doctrine and military science: This way, Ukraine closed a gap in capabilities between 2014 and 2022, and is now pulling ahead with each day that goes by with Ukrainian officers being trained e.g. in the UK.

I'm wondering, what are some good examples of the Russians learning and applying those lessons on the battlefield?

The Russians seem to have learned nothing from Bakhmut.

The lesson of not housing your troops with your munitions was learned as soon as gunpowder became part of war. It has been diligently applied competent armies ever since. But here we are, this week,seeing that apparently Russia skipped class that day.

Ukraine has spent an entire school year hammering home the lesson of cell phone use near the front. Have the Russians been playing hooky from their own damn war?

Have they learned the lesson of not launching bold blitzkrieg breakthroughs without proper coordination and logistical support? That lesson is almost a century old, now. And the Russians got a refresher just last year. They haven't tried it again. But is that because they've learned? Or because it takes time to rebuild that kind of force? I guess we'll find out in the spring.