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Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 6

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Steve said:
To Putin and his ilk that is just a statistic, not people. Russia has a population of about 145 million so they see nothing to worry about yet.
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Certainly they do, but the families of the people they send to die dont. Their military is almost entirely deployed to Ukraine. How would they quell a large scale rebellion?

They have an aging and shrinking population in which military age men are fleeing. I don't think these are the kind of losses they can sustain forever. And then, Ukraine is probably only reporting KiA and POW figures. For every 1 if those there are probably 2 wounded and evacuated soldiers.
 
jimbob said:
Via WarTranslated, which is usually reliable

https://mobile.twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1609851068598427648
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UA military also claimed to have affected "hundreds" of RU soldiers in Makiivka. I saw this early in a couple of vlogs I follow. Traditional media were more hesitant, caveating the report in their rolling coverage.
I suppose numbers must be considered very provisional as the dead haven't been counted and information on building occupation at this point impossible to verify.
It appears that a large builing has been almost completely destroyed by several HIMARS rockets hitting simultaneously. If true, it seems plausible this was some sort of headquarters and would be home to higher ranks.
Or a hospital... (Don't think it is, although I saw one video mentioning an "old hospital), although not clear, and doubtful, the same building was meant.
 
Oystein said:
UA military also claimed to have affected "hundreds" of RU soldiers in Makiivka. I saw this early in a couple of vlogs I follow. Traditional media were more hesitant, caveating the report in their rolling coverage.
I suppose numbers must be considered very provisional as the dead haven't been counted and information on building occupation at this point impossible to verify.
It appears that a large builing has been almost completely destroyed by several HIMARS rockets hitting simultaneously. If true, it seems plausible this was some sort of headquarters and would be home to higher ranks.
Or a hospital... (Don't think it is, although I saw one video mentioning an "old hospital), although not clear, and doubtful, the same building was meant.
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Before and after photos make this more believable to me

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1609764123633659904
 
lobosrul5 said:
Certainly they do, but the families of the people they send to die dont. Their military is almost entirely deployed to Ukraine. How would they quell a large scale rebellion?
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For that matter, how would Russia fend off a large scale invasion right now? If China suddenly rolled in and tried to seize a chunk of the Russian Far East, what's left in Russia to stop them? How quickly could Russia move what it has in Ukraine all the way to the other end of the country? Of course they still have nukes, but so does China. If China tried to do to Russia what Russia's trying to do to Ukraine would Russia be able to stop them?

Not that I think China would try this. But I bet someone over there has at least thought about it.
 
TragicMonkey said:
For that matter, how would Russia fend off a large scale invasion right now? If China suddenly rolled in and tried to seize a chunk of the Russian Far East, what's left in Russia to stop them? How quickly could Russia move what it has in Ukraine all the way to the other end of the country? Of course they still have nukes, but so does China. If China tried to do to Russia what Russia's trying to do to Ukraine would Russia be able to stop them?

Not that I think China would try this. But I bet someone over there has at least thought about it.
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China would likely have no issue taking some of far east Russia, ie Vladivostok. Don't think they're dumb enough to try and move thru Siberia in winter though. But, it's mutually assured destruction that is the biggie. Same reason we're hesitant to give Ukraine long range missiles.
 
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Oystein said:
UA military also claimed to have affected "hundreds" of RU soldiers in Makiivka. I saw this early in a couple of vlogs I follow. Traditional media were more hesitant, caveating the report in their rolling coverage.
I suppose numbers must be considered very provisional as the dead haven't been counted and information on building occupation at this point impossible to verify.
It appears that a large builing has been almost completely destroyed by several HIMARS rockets hitting simultaneously. If true, it seems plausible this was some sort of headquarters and would be home to higher ranks.
Or a hospital... (Don't think it is, although I saw one video mentioning an "old hospital), although not clear, and doubtful, the same building was meant.
Click to expand...


US mainstream media outlets are reporting on this now. From the WSJ:

KYIV, Ukraine—A Ukrainian strike killed dozens of newly mobilized soldiers in Russian-held territory in the east of the country in the single-deadliest known strike in months, piling pressure on Moscow’s military leadership, while Ukraine said it shot down at least 39 drones during another wave of attacks on Kyiv.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said Monday that Ukrainian forces used a U.S.-supplied Himars rocket system to destroy a facility used as a base for mobilized troops in the city of Makiivka. In a statement carried by Russian state news agencies, the ministry said 63 troops had died in the blast after four Himars rockets carrying “high-explosive warheads” struck the facility.​


The article goes on to state that Russian milbloggers are claiming between 200 and 600 KIA.
 
SpitfireIX said:
US mainstream media outlets are reporting on this now. From the WSJ:

KYIV, Ukraine—A Ukrainian strike killed dozens of newly mobilized soldiers in Russian-held territory in the east of the country in the single-deadliest known strike in months, piling pressure on Moscow’s military leadership, while Ukraine said it shot down at least 39 drones during another wave of attacks on Kyiv.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said Monday that Ukrainian forces used a U.S.-supplied Himars rocket system to destroy a facility used as a base for mobilized troops in the city of Makiivka. In a statement carried by Russian state news agencies, the ministry said 63 troops had died in the blast after four Himars rockets carrying “high-explosive warheads” struck the facility.​


The article goes on to state that Russian milbloggers are claiming between 200 and 600 KIA.
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But but that's impossible. CE used to tell us all the time that US supplied HIMARS were being destroyed or captured faster than Ukraine could use them.

:duck:
 
Ukraine does their homework and does vast damage to the Russian army in a single HIMARS volly. Meanwhile Russia flings metric tons of missiles, targeting infrastructure, hospitals, schools, and killing civilian women and children in the process, but doing little damage to the actual Ukrainian forces they are fighting. This isn't a strategy, it's mindless brutality, and it's why Ukraine will be victorious in he end.
 
Mike! said:
....it's mindless brutality, and it's why Ukraine will be victorious in he end.
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Not mindless. There is a plan there. It is a stupid one, however. They are trying to win by punishing the Ukrainian civilians. Typically does not work as has been pointed out before in this thread. But since Ukraine is not strong enough to quickly push out Russia it means the conflict is unlikely to be resolved on the battlefield and could take quite a while.

Maximising casualties on the Russian side is still the best strategy Ukraine has. Make the soldier's mothers feel the pain. take territory back only when it isn't too costly.

For Russia to win on the battlefield they would likely need to start all over again building a military with smarter than average leaders. They don't have it now and won't attract good officers without first ending the conflict. But they can keep throwing bodies at the problem until somebody back home has finally had enough.
 
Steve said:
To Putin and his ilk that is just a statistic, not people. Russia has a population of about 145 million so they see nothing to worry about yet.
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There’s plenty to worry about and they probably know it.

If you were a male born in Russia in 1923, you had about a one third chance of still being alive on your twenty third birthday in 1946. If you look at the demographic pyramid for Russia you can see echoes of this every generation since then marked by huge dips in the number of people of the corresponding age. The Ukraine war has hit exactly during one of those dips, so the Russian casualties are going to compound the problem.

It’s pretty much the same for Ukraine.

https://youtu.be/f1WFrsz4g14
 
Doubt said:
Not mindless. There is a plan there. It is a stupid one, however. They are trying to win by punishing the Ukrainian civilians. Typically does not work as has been pointed out before in this thread. But since Ukraine is not strong enough to quickly push out Russia it means the conflict is unlikely to be resolved on the battlefield and could take quite a while.

Maximising casualties on the Russian side is still the best strategy Ukraine has. Make the soldier's mothers feel the pain. take territory back only when it isn't too costly.

For Russia to win on the battlefield they would likely need to start all over again building a military with smarter than average leaders. They don't have it now and won't attract good officers without first ending the conflict. But they can keep throwing bodies at the problem until somebody back home has finally had enough.
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Indeed.

For comparison, the RAF and USAAF destroyed 6% of Germany's housing stock in 1943. It didn't end the war.
 
actually, the plan is to flood Europe with Ukrainian refugees while at the same time funding far-right and extreme-right groups in Europe to agitate against taking on refugees.
this could lead to a right-wing shift in EU politics with candidates beholden to Putin and dropping out of supporting Ukraine.

The problem remains, however, that the US can support Ukraine without EU help, and that it will take longer than the Russian military has to flip EU parliaments.
 
Doubt said:
Not mindless. There is a plan there. It is a stupid one, however. They are trying to win by punishing the Ukrainian civilians.
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I'm coming around to the idea that destroying Ukraine and its people is itself one of the victory conditions. Pogrom, ethnic cleansing, genocide - these are attested goals both in Russian rhetoric and in their documented activities in the occupied regions.

The more of the life of Ukraine they can destroy, the better. Its buildings, its people, these things need to go. I don't think Russia hopes to convince Ukrainian civilians to capitulate. I think they hope to prolong this war until so many Ukrainians are dead or gone that the region becomes a de facto Russian majority.
 
theprestige said:
I'm coming around to the idea that destroying Ukraine and its people is itself one of the victory conditions. Pogrom, ethnic cleansing, genocide - these are attested goals both in Russian rhetoric and in their documented activities in the occupied regions.

The more of the life of Ukraine they can destroy, the better. Its buildings, its people, these things need to go. I don't think Russia hopes to convince Ukrainian civilians to capitulate. I think they hope to prolong this war until so many Ukrainians are dead or gone that the region becomes a de facto Russian majority.
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Unless casualty figures are being grossly distorted I don't think Russia is anywhere near that goal. Civilian casualties in Ukraine, in Ukraine controlled areas, seem to be in the 10s a week. That's not going to make a dent.

Unless you just meant in the Russian controlled areas?
 
lobosrul5 said:
Unless casualty figures are being grossly distorted I don't think Russia is anywhere near that goal. Civilian casualties in Ukraine, in Ukraine controlled areas, seem to be in the 10s a week. That's not going to make a dent.

Unless you just meant in the Russian controlled areas?
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Probably best to view it as where ever Russia feels like it can get away with it, if you're considering that. As was noted by theprestige, this can be seen especially in their documented activities in the areas that they've controlled. It's also entirely believable that one of the main goals of their massive assault on energy infrastructure, even in their own words (for what little that's worth), is to drive Ukrainian civilians out of Ukraine.

That Russia's not having great success in slaughtering civilians in areas that they don't control is not an argument against Russia considering ethnic cleansing and genocide to be something they consider necessary for lasting victory. A number of those who are pretty much state mouthpieces have directly stated that they do consider such genocide necessary for a real Russian win. Military victory would just be a prelude to crimes committed against the Ukrainian civilians.
 
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lobosrul5 said:
Unless casualty figures are being grossly distorted I don't think Russia is anywhere near that goal. Civilian casualties in Ukraine, in Ukraine controlled areas, seem to be in the 10s a week. That's not going to make a dent.

Unless you just meant in the Russian controlled areas?
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There are also millions of Ukrainians displaced internally and externally which significantly adds to the numbers but yes, the Russians are focusing on the areas they occupy, though the plan seems to be to occupy the whole country. :(

ISTM that the Russians intend to completely erase Ukraine from existence. They are already "re-educating" children in the occupied areas to be loyal Russians. In the parts that they hold they seem to either exterminate or re-educate the existing population.
 
The Don said:
There are also millions of Ukrainians displaced internally and externally which significantly adds to the numbers but yes, the Russians are focusing on the areas they occupy, though the plan seems to be to occupy the whole country. :(

ISTM that the Russians intend to completely erase Ukraine from existence. They are already "re-educating" children in the occupied areas to be loyal Russians. In the parts that they hold they seem to either exterminate or re-educate the existing population.
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It seems to be the "If I can't have it, no one can" syndrome. I suspect Russia would b quite happy for the bulk of Ukraine to become a depopulated wilderness.
 
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