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Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 6

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Doubt said:
A river crossing is high risk and not really needed for the early part of an offensive. Could be done after a serious offense starts elsewhere when Russia tries to with draw from that area to avoid being cut off.
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It's high risk mostly when there's actual opposition. Russia's apparently pretty well withdrawn their forces in the area in question. Thus, for the moment, it can be said to be low hanging fruit. So long as they keep withdrawal methods at hand and secure and more generally don't over extend the logistics, the risks are rather limited. It's possible that it's the lead in to something more serious, though, given how it's not being hyped as much.
 
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Aridas said:
It's high risk mostly when there's actual opposition. Russia's apparently pretty well withdrawn their forces in the area in question. Thus, for the moment, it can be said to be low hanging fruit. So long as they keep withdrawal methods at hand and secure and more generally don't over extend the logistics, the risks are rather limited. It's possible that it's the lead in to something more serious, though, given how it's not being hyped as much.
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Rivers are natural fortifications and crossing the water exposes people so they cannot take cover.

What is your source that they withdrew? The Deepstate live map, which is a Ukrainian source, still shows several units on the river with some more back behind it.

https://deepstatemap.live/#8/46.387/33.437
 
Wildy said:
[vatnik mode= ON]
So Ukraine will be joining the anti-Russian criminal organisation that is NATO. This just proves that Russia is perfectly justified in doing everything to wipe Ukraine off the map.

[vatnik mode= OFF]
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And therefore other NATO countries too.
 
Doubt said:
Rivers are natural fortifications and crossing the water exposes people so they cannot take cover.

What is your source that they withdrew? The Deepstate live map, which is a Ukrainian source, still shows several units on the river with some more back behind it.

https://deepstatemap.live/#8/46.387/33.437
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Really short version - mostly Russian sources have been reporting that Russian forces in the area have been, for example, fundamentally degraded. They're Russian, of course, and need to be taken with caution, but that doesn't mean that they're to be dismissed out of hand. With that said, mostly withdrawn isn't the same as completely withdrawn. A bit like up just before the Kharkiv counteroffensive - forces did remain to defend, they'd just been largely hollowed out and backup wasn't immediately available.
 
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theprestige said:
Reminds me of the true story of a man who bullied an entire small town in the American south. The townsfolk tried to enlist the help of county and state law enforcement, but these efforts went nowhere, and provoked reprisals from the bully.

Finally, in an apparently spontaneous act of protest, several (many? most?) of the townsfolk met the bully on the street and gunned him down. Details of exactly what happened and who was involved are not clear, since the town as a whole refused to talk about the incident, whether to law enforcement or the media.

Whatever else I may think of Russian townsfolk, I hope they can see their way clear to strike some small blow against Russian imperialism, and that the Russian countryside may soon see a small increase in shallow, unmarked graves.
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Happened in Australia. Not the whole town, just one person. No one was sorry to see him gone.
 
jeremyp said:
Reports are in that suggest Ukraine has established some sort of bridgehead on the East bank of the Dnipro in Kherson Oblast.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65379229

I'm amazed, if this is a serious attempt to mount an offensive. It just shows how much we armchair generals know.
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First, that location is not on the East bank of the river, it's on the West side of a swampy island in the river. They'd have to cross a swamp and then another part of the river to reach the actual East bank.
Second, the UA units shown in videos are mere platoons in small boats with at best car-sized vehicles. This is not a harbinger of a big offense.

A plausible operational aim might be to check out if and how the East end of the Antonovski bridge can be secured to allow for army engineers to make the bridge passable.
 
I'd love to see Ukraine swoop down and take back Melitopol, then bomb the crap out of the Kerch bridge. We'll have to see what happens, but I think it's coming fairly soon.
 
SECRET WEAPON Putin’s ‘invisible’ T-14 robo-tanks that could ‘destroy cities in MINUTES’ reach Ukraine frontline ahead of new blitz
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From my need feed.

Somehow I think not.


It's not a dalek, it's a tank that seems to have several issues.
 
Oystein said:
First, that location is not on the East bank of the river, it's on the West side of a swampy island in the river. They'd have to cross a swamp and then another part of the river to reach the actual East bank.
Second, the UA units shown in videos are mere platoons in small boats with at best car-sized vehicles. This is not a harbinger of a big offense.

A plausible operational aim might be to check out if and how the East end of the Antonovski bridge can be secured to allow for army engineers to make the bridge passable.
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More importantly could Ukraine keep it passable if they decide to use it.
 
Oystein said:
Of ... Russia? Ukraine? :confused: :D
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IMHO he would be good candidate, as he's famous, controllable, looks and talks good (compared to republican candidate standards). But nah, he won't. It's mostly about direct control and ego for republicans. They are not smart enough to have a talking head for a president.
 
Oystein said:
First, that location is not on the East bank of the river, it's on the West side of a swampy island in the river. They'd have to cross a swamp and then another part of the river to reach the actual East bank.
Second, the UA units shown in videos are mere platoons in small boats with at best car-sized vehicles. This is not a harbinger of a big offense.

A plausible operational aim might be to check out if and how the East end of the Antonovski bridge can be secured to allow for army engineers to make the bridge passable.
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Most likely, they'll use that crossing to insert some special forces operatives to cause chaos and disruptions between Crimea and the main assault, which will be 500km+ east of that area.

ETA: I mean on small boats. Very likely Russia has the remains of the Antonovski bridge wired with explosives.
 
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