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Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 6

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jeremyp said:
Reports are in that suggest Ukraine has established some sort of bridgehead on the East bank of the Dnipro in Kherson Oblast.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65379229

I'm amazed, if this is a serious attempt to mount an offensive. It just shows how much we armchair generals know.
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For those of who have studied the Russian Front in World War Two, that is Deja Vu All Over Again.
 
They need to get a foothold on that side so they can bring in their superior artillery.

I am wondering if Ukraine has been training a paratroop regiment. If so, this could be a gamechanger.

Dropping a regiment in Mariupol and then driving south to the sea with a massive armored drive would split the fronts for Russia, and create massive supply issues.
 
Drewbot said:
They need to get a foothold on that side so they can bring in their superior artillery.

I am wondering if Ukraine has been training a paratroop regiment. If so, this could be a gamechanger.

Dropping a regiment in Mariupol and then driving south to the sea with a massive armored drive would split the fronts for Russia, and create massive supply issues.
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One thing I'm seeing from this war is that not only are paratroops pretty much obsolete, but heliborne troops are probably obsolete as well. Helicopter-mounted light infantry will have some use as a quick reaction force against enemy light infantry appearing from an unexpected direction. But setting them down behind enemy lines, without immediate resupply and reinforcement, is a recipe for disaster. We shouldn't need a remake of Market Garden to tell us this, but Moscow gave us one anyway, just in case we'd forgotten the lesson.

What's actually been reported is that Ukraine has raised nine "assault brigades". What we'll probably see is some form of good old fashioned bitzkrieg (or Soviet deep battle): One or more strong pushes by heavy infantry, exploiting breakthroughs to engineer a collapse of the enemy along a broad front.
 
theprestige said:
One thing I'm seeing from this war is that not only are paratroops pretty much obsolete, but heliborne troops are probably obsolete as well. Helicopter-mounted light infantry will have some use as a quick reaction force against enemy light infantry appearing from an unexpected direction. But setting them down behind enemy lines, without immediate resupply and reinforcement, is a recipe for disaster. We shouldn't need a remake of Market Garden to tell us this, but Moscow gave us one anyway, just in case we'd forgotten the lesson.

What's actually been reported is that Ukraine has raised nine "assault brigades". What we'll probably see is some form of good old fashioned bitzkrieg (or Soviet deep battle): One or more strong pushes by heavy infantry, exploiting breakthroughs to engineer a collapse of the enemy along a broad front.
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A bit OT: Market Garden COULD have been a resounding success had Ike given Monty everything he asked for.

I don't foresee any large scale airborne operations by Ukraine. I don't believe they have the airlift capacity for it. Some squad to platoon size special force units inserted behind the lines? Yeah very likely.

ETA: some of the Pentagon leaks had our intel on the composition of Ukrainian units. Though I think it was by battalion and not brigade. Looked like combined arms: APC's, tanks, and self propelled arty.
 
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Practically every day BBC brings stories about how little ammunition and weapons the Ukrainians have. Artillery officers who complain that the Russians fire hundreds of rounds against their position, while they can only fire two back, and they can no longer destroy known Russian positions because of a lack of shells.

It could be a bit of deception to lull the Russians into a false sense of security, but I find it trustworthy myself.
 
steenkh said:
Practically every day BBC brings stories about how little ammunition and weapons the Ukrainians have. Artillery officers who complain that the Russians fire hundreds of rounds against their position, while they can only fire two back, and they can no longer destroy known Russian positions because of a lack of shells.

It could be a bit of deception to lull the Russians into a false sense of security, but I find it trustworthy myself.
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Or the Ukrainians are stockpiling for an offensive?
 
theprestige said:
One thing I'm seeing from this war is that not only are paratroops pretty much obsolete, but heliborne troops are probably obsolete as well. Helicopter-mounted light infantry will have some use as a quick reaction force against enemy light infantry appearing from an unexpected direction. But setting them down behind enemy lines, without immediate resupply and reinforcement, is a recipe for disaster. We shouldn't need a remake of Market Garden to tell us this, but Moscow gave us one anyway, just in case we'd forgotten the lesson.

What's actually been reported is that Ukraine has raised nine "assault brigades". What we'll probably see is some form of good old fashioned bitzkrieg (or Soviet deep battle): One or more strong pushes by heavy infantry, exploiting breakthroughs to engineer a collapse of the enemy along a broad front.
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I disagree about them being obsolete.

The key to being able to use them remains unchanged from when airborne operations first started. If you don't have air superiority in the area of operation, they are pretty much useless for sustained operations.

Ukraine does not have air superiority. The only way they could really use them if for very short ranged, low altitude insertions. The risk to reward prospects don't make it a good bet when your ability to win the war rests on taking lower casualties than the Russians.
 
lobosrul5 said:
Or the Ukrainians are stockpiling for an offensive?
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But that runs a risk of allowing the Russian forces to be adequately prepared at the time the offensive starts.

It could be that the plan is to stockpile and then target certain positions when the offensive starts to create logistics issues but that feels a little risky to me because if the Russians are supplied enough to hold back the initial Ukrainian offensive the supply issues won't be as much of a problem.
 
Why China is trying to mediate in Russia's war with Ukraine

Earlier this week, Chinese leader Xi Jinping said Beijing planned to send an envoy to Ukraine to discuss a possible "political settlement" to Russia's war with the country.

Beijing has previously avoided involvement in conflicts between other countries, but it appears to be trying to assert itself as a global diplomatic force after arranging talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran in March that led to them restoring diplomatic relations after a seven-year break.

Mr Xi told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a phone call that a Chinese envoy, a former Chinese ambassador to Russia, would visit Ukraine and "other countries" to discuss a possible political settlement, according to a government statement.

It made no mention of Russia or last year's invasion of Ukraine and didn't indicate whether the Chinese envoy might visit Moscow.

The Xi-Zelenskyy phone call was long anticipated after Beijing said it wanted to serve as a mediator in the war.
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To poke at Ukraine's willingness to submit and be spared from their suffering -

And so, notwithstanding the horrific suffering that our people have endured, I read a recent survey that said 89% of Ukrainians are prepared to fight to the very end, even if Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine. So when I hear in the West about the suffering, we have to stop it, etc., I don’t know who they’re talking to because we’re prepared to keep going.
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All the more evidence that tankies pretending to support democracy and wanting Ukraine to just submit aren't really concerned with reality or democracy. Not that that's honestly been in question for a long time, of course.
 
Aridas said:
To poke at Ukraine's willingness to submit and be spared from their suffering -



All the more evidence that tankies pretending to support democracy and wanting Ukraine to just submit aren't really concerned with reality or democracy. Not that that's honestly been in question for a long time, of course.
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Bah, that poll was not done by the democratic Russian government in 'liberated' territory while soldiers are watching how you vote.
So clearly it is not truly showing the will of the people

/tankie off.
 
Aridas said:
To poke at Ukraine's willingness to submit and be spared from their suffering -

All the more evidence that tankies pretending to support democracy and wanting Ukraine to just submit aren't really concerned with reality or democracy. Not that that's honestly been in question for a long time, of course.
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[vatnik]

Clearly the Ukrainians have been deluded into thinking they can win by the evil NATO empire, once they see how stronk Russia truly is they will crumble because NATO will immediately stop supporting Ukraine.

If you support NATO you have to answer the question posed by the great intellectual Gonzalo Lira, are you ignorant or evil?
[/vatnik]

Lukraak_Sisser said:
/tankie off.
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End tankie off? Does that mean you're now a tankie?
 
Here comes the hobby horse cavalry, but

Wildy said:
Somebody was careless with their cigarettes again.
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I can't help it. A drone strike by what make and model? Something big (as tactical drones go) but sneaky? Developed over the past fall and winter with lots of nice help from completely neutral civilian NATO-free private industry?

And built in sufficient numbers to swarm a 1,000 square meter fuel dump?

Giddyup!
 
To poke at a bit of a side note, Russia seems to be showing genocidal intent towards Poland, too.

Medvedev: I see no point in maintaining diplomatic relations with Poland. This state must not exist for us while there is no one but Russophobes in power and Ukraine is full of Polish mercenaries, who should be ruthlessly exterminated like stinky rats.
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Not really something all that surprising, of course.
 
Wildy said:
[vatnik]

Clearly the Ukrainians have been deluded into thinking they can win by the evil NATO empire, once they see how stronk Russia truly is they will crumble because NATO will immediately stop supporting Ukraine.

If you support NATO you have to answer the question posed by the great intellectual Gonzalo Lira, are you ignorant or evil?
[/vatnik]



End tankie off? Does that mean you're now a tankie?
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He was imitating the style of infamous pro-Putin blogger, Gavril Tankiyov.
 
arthwollipot said:
Why China is trying to mediate in Russia's war with Ukraine
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Ukrainian negotiations should start with these non-negotiable points:

1) The immediate and complete withdrawal of all Russian forces and transplants from every last inch of Ukrainian soil, as established in 1991.

2) The immediate and complete repatriation of all Ukrainian citizens relocated to Russia against their will.

3) Financial reparations for 100% of the destruction caused by the illegal attack and invasion of Russia. This is to include financial reparations to the families of those killed during the invasion/occupation of Ukrainian territory.

4) Complete demilitarization of the Russian Federation, including the elimination of all atomic weapons.

5) Vladimir Putin is to fatally shoot himself, in the head, on live television.

6) Russia requests the U.N. remove their seat and veto ability on the Security Council.


These would be the starting point for any negotiations Ukraine should undertake to end the war.
 
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