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Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 6

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dudalb said:
And you seem to be very uncomfortable if anybody criticises anybody on the left for just about anything.
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Really? Where have I demonstrated that? Also, any different from your penchant for sliding down a slippery slope to communist absolutism when social/economic safety nets are discussed?
 
dudalb said:
I don't blame them for being wary of the US; but seems to me that a blind support for any country on the wrong side of the US is pretty stupid.
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I find it sad that they are willing to sacrifice Ukraine in order to support the enemy of their one-time oppressor.
 
Germany - in the person of their new Minister of Defense - is now sending clear signals that the west will support Ukraine if it takes the battle into Moscow's territory. This is a very bad sign for Moscow.

Meanwhile, presumably in retaliation for Ukraine's recent spate of in absentia indictments and trials of Moscow war criminals, has deigned to convict Ukraine's chief of intelligence in absentia. They are also promising to issue an Interpol Red Notice for the man. It will be interesting to see how Interpol responds.
 
dudalb said:
And in another brilliant military move; Russia manages to bomb it's own city:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-war-belgorod-bomb-1.6817748

And another name comes back to life from World War 2. Belgorod was the scene of intense fighing in 1943 between the Germans and the Russians. My WW2 atlases are proving very useful in following the Ukraine war.
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That's the odd thing. The Russian Nazis are making a lot of the same mistakes the German Nazis made. Maybe it's a Nazi thing.
 
Craig4 said:
That's the odd thing. The Russian Nazis are making a lot of the same mistakes the German Nazis made. Maybe it's a Nazi thing.
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"Maybe it's a Nazi thing"

In some ways, I would argue that it is.

Both regimes with multiple "barons" controlling separate aspects of their war machine and with huge distrust between them. And this being a feature that provides the ruler with some protection against a palace coup.

This entrenches corruption and patronage, and skimping on training and maintenance.


So yes.
 
So I guess the thing to watch for now is when will Ukraine start the next counter offensive?

M-1 tanks from the US are going to be in Germany in May to train the Ukrainians. But the M-1s are a small percentage of the new tanks they are getting. I have not heard anything lately on the Leopard 2 training. I did see a news story where some training on them in Spain finished in March.

Timing for other resources matters. Seeing stories about Ukraine running short on Russian anti-aircraft missiles. Also seeing stories that they have received a lot of Mig 29s from their neighbors in the last couple of weeks.

I would think Ukraine wants to get things started before another wave of Russian conscripts shows up. Poorly trained soldiers on defense are more effective than on offense.
 
KDLarsen said:
Wagner convicts pardoned by Putin return to terrorise home towns
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Reminds me of the true story of a man who bullied an entire small town in the American south. The townsfolk tried to enlist the help of county and state law enforcement, but these efforts went nowhere, and provoked reprisals from the bully.

Finally, in an apparently spontaneous act of protest, several (many? most?) of the townsfolk met the bully on the street and gunned him down. Details of exactly what happened and who was involved are not clear, since the town as a whole refused to talk about the incident, whether to law enforcement or the media.

Whatever else I may think of Russian townsfolk, I hope they can see their way clear to strike some small blow against Russian imperialism, and that the Russian countryside may soon see a small increase in shallow, unmarked graves.
 
That would be the story of Ken McElroy. What's amazing is that it sounds like something out of a pulp western, but it happened in 1981
 
Doubt said:
So I guess the thing to watch for now is when will Ukraine start the next counter offensive?

... I have not heard anything lately on the Leopard 2 training. I did see a news story where some training on them in Spain finished in March.
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Overall, we have not heard a lot of specific information to assess how the war is going and where it is headed next, at least that's my impression.
And I am pretty sure this is on purpose: To keep everyone, especially the Russians, nervously guessing.

If that is true, we learn how the Ukrainians and their Western partners are able to control the infornation sphere. In other words, how much of what we heard in the past year has been carefully chosen for our (and their) consumption.

Anyway, to answer: There was an incident recently in Poland of a Leopard apparently having been crashed into by another tracked vehicle (another Leo?), which knocked off the turret. That happened in a muddy field and most probably tells us that there was some sort of training ongoing.
There were also some news reports of Ukrainians being bid farewell in the communities where they had been training - in Norway, in Germany, in the UK. Again, such reports are released for public (including Russian) consumption, so it's not clear hpw much it means.
Doubt said:
...Seeing stories about Ukraine running short on Russian anti-aircraft missiles. ...
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I saw recent stories of e.g. Germany having sent Patriots, sourcing more Gepard ammo ... things are happening, we just don't get all the details.

Then there is this story of small teams of Ukrainians landing with small craft on the left bank of the Dnipro (or rather a triver island) just north of Kherson, with the impression being suggested they may be controlling a bridgehead, or may be headed to secure the remsains of the Antonovski bridge.
Many commenters think this is a decoy. To keep the Russians nervously guessing and on their cold, muddy toes.
 
Oystein said:
Then there is this story of small teams of Ukrainians landing with small craft on the left bank of the Dnipro (or rather a triver island) just north of Kherson, with the impression being suggested they may be controlling a bridgehead, or may be headed to secure the remsains of the Antonovski bridge.
Many commenters think this is a decoy. To keep the Russians nervously guessing and on their cold, muddy toes.
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Rather than keeping the Russians nervously guessing, I'd suggest that it's more likely to be an attempt to draw attention and forces there in preparation for a decisive strike elsewhere. Somewhat similar to how forces were removed from areas and being sent to Kherson when the seized the opportunity to pull off the big Kharkiv counteroffensive.
 
Aridas said:
Rather than keeping the Russians nervously guessing, I'd suggest that it's more likely to be an attempt to draw attention and forces there in preparation for a decisive strike elsewhere. Somewhat similar to how forces were removed from areas and being sent to Kherson when the seized the opportunity to pull off the big Kharkiv counteroffensive.
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A river crossing is high risk and not really needed for the early part of an offensive. Could be done after a serious offense starts elsewhere when Russia tries to with draw from that area to avoid being cut off.
 
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