Swine Flu outbreak

rwguinn said:
According to the AP, there are 20 confirmed deaths in Mexico

and 40 confirmed cases in the US.
THIS is a Pandemic? More like Panicthepeopleforthehellofit
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Wrong. As skeptigirl says, you really need to learn more about the terminology before you start spouting off nonsense. Here, let me make it easy for you...

CDC - What is an influenza pandemic?
A pandemic is a global disease outbreak. An influenza pandemic occurs when a new influenza A virus emerges for which there is little or no immunity in the human population, begins to cause serious illness, and then spreads easily person-to-person worldwide. ...
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ETA: That said, I have seen some media outlets promoting more panic than useful information. Fortunately, most media outlets seem to have been pretty responsible throughout this whole thing. The CTists and other woo-meisters are having a field day, though.
 
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My kid has got an appointment at Monklands Hospital on Friday, anyone know where we can get some of those blue masks? :)

Seriously two people have been confirmed as having the swine flu in Scotland.
We are told they are responding to treatment and its not life threatening.Since they returned home from holidaying in Mexico, they have been in contact with 22 people.Seven of these people are being treated at home with anti-biotics and the rest of the 22 people are being tested.

Its a bit scary how easily it can be pasted on.
 
aerosolben said:
The WHO influenza pandemic alert level been raised to 4 as of today.
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Right. But not yesterday. The poster should have been right; they should have raised the alert level yesterday. Or even the day before. Why bother using the word "alert" if it isn't issued early enough to serve a useful purpose? Would you rather have a smoke alarm, or a "your house is fully engulfed in flames" alarm?
 
MattusMaximus said:
Wrong. As skeptigirl says, you really need to learn more about the terminology before you start spouting off nonsense. Here, let me make it easy for you...

CDC - What is an influenza pandemic?
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Even simpler, from the WHO:
A pandemic can start when three conditions have been met: a new influenza virus subtype emerges; it infects humans, causing serious illness; and it spreads easily and sustainably among humans
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It appears numbers 1 is quite true, number 2 very suggestive (there's some debate here about severity, but even with caveats, 7 deaths in 73 confirmed cases warrants concern), while number 3 partially confirmed and under evaluation.
 
Dymanic said:
Right. But not yesterday. The poster should have been right; they should have raised the alert level yesterday. Or even the day before. Why bother using the word "alert" if it isn't issued early enough to serve a useful purpose? Would you rather have a smoke alarm, or a "your house is fully engulfed in flames" alarm?
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Well, it would have to be been the day before, as the committee didn't meet yesterday.

Not sure what you want them to do. This is a very recent and ongoing development - it's been less than a week since the first confirmed cases appeared. Much of the news is unconfirmed infections, which the WHO needs to confirm to make recommendations. Countries with outbreaks seem to be taking precautionary measures quite capably on their own.
 
aerosolben said:
Well, it would have to be been the day before, as the committee didn't meet yesterday.
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They had planned not to even meet until tomorrow.

Not sure what you want them to do.
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How about: salvage what's left of their reputation by being consistent with their own definitions of the pandemic phases without making themselves look even more incompetent by revising the definitions on the fly, in the teeth of a major epidemiological event?

Countries with outbreaks seem to be taking precautionary measures quite capably on their own.
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Good thing they didn't wait for the WHO to raise the alert phase, eh? At some point one begins to ask why the WHO even exists, doesn't one, if they're too timid to act in a timely manner? Maybe they should just wait until the whole thing's over, so they can give us absolutely airtight numbers, and we'll know exactly how many people were infected at each stage of the event.
 
Dymanic said:
Good thing they didn't wait for the WHO to raise the alert phase, eh? At some point one begins to ask why the WHO even exists, doesn't one, if they're too timid to act in a timely manner? Maybe they should just wait until the whole thing's over, so they can give us absolutely airtight numbers, and we'll know exactly how many people were infected at each stage of the event.
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The WHO exist to condition the human race to accept the NWO. Duh.
 
Dymanic said:
Right. But not yesterday. The poster should have been right; they should have raised the alert level yesterday. Or even the day before. Why bother using the word "alert" if it isn't issued early enough to serve a useful purpose? Would you rather have a smoke alarm, or a "your house is fully engulfed in flames" alarm?
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Well, if it's any consolation, there have been alerts going out to the public health departments here in So. Cal. since Friday, with a daily teleconference with the CDC.
 
Dymanic said:
How about: salvage what's left of their reputation by being consistent with their own definitions of the pandemic phases without making themselves look even more incompetent by revising the definitions on the fly, in the teeth of a major epidemiological event?
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I was not aware they changed their criteria. Citation?
 
MattusMaximus said:
Wrong. As skeptigirl says, you really need to learn more about the terminology before you start spouting off nonsense. Here, let me make it easy for you...

CDC - What is an influenza pandemic?


ETA: That said, I have seen some media outlets promoting more panic than useful information. Fortunately, most media outlets seem to have been pretty responsible throughout this whole thing. The CTists and other woo-meisters are having a field day, though.
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Ok-I can see the WHO's definition is useful in preventing a disease from becoming a dictionary definition of pandemic (which is what I used) in reality.
The question is, to me, at least, why use a word that is so heavily loaded toward panic, and which has a dictionary definition that causes people to think of middle ages and the Plague?
Now, I don't know the numbers, but I do know a bit about Mexico City. Even 150 deaths from respiratory problems is likely not really unusual, given the altitude, pollution levels, and general squalor of the place. Add in springtime pollen and wind-blown dust, and a volcano or two, and it does not require much of an infection to kill people.
What it appears to be is a method to induce panic is as large a number of people as possible.
Throw in a magnitude 6 Earthquake today, stir in corruption, and some drug lords, and they have big problems down there

ETA: Ad Hom noted (bolded). My concerns are real. How about actually thinking about the E in JREF before you get so ****ing self-righteous, dude?
 
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rwguinn said:
Ok-I can see the WHO's definition is useful in preventing a disease from becoming a dictionary definition of pandemic (which is what I used) in reality.
The question is, to me, at least, why use a word that is so heavily loaded toward panic, and which has a dictionary definition that causes people to think of middle ages and the Plague?
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Blame the media for not educating people about the real meaning of "pandemic". Or, we could also blame people who are too lazy to actually go look it up for themselves.

Now, I don't know the numbers, but I do know a bit about Mexico City. Even 150 deaths from respiratory problems is likely not really unusual, given the altitude, pollution levels, and general squalor of the place. Add in springtime pollen and wind-blown dust, and a volcano or two, and it does not require much of an infection to kill people.
What it appears to be is a method to induce panic is as large a number of people as possible.
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:confused: Yeah, that makes sense. Because a panic would make things so much better.

The CT subforum is two doors down on the right :rolleyes:

ETA: Ad Hom noted (bolded). My concerns are real. How about actually thinking about the E in JREF before you get so ****ing self-righteous, dude?
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I did educate you. If you don't like how I educated you, just ignore me.

In the meantime, how about learning how to google "pandemic" before you go spouting nonsense and alleging conspiracy mongering idiocy? Here, let me google that for you.
 
Yeah circumstances, situations differ so much globally...its sad that they could've been helped somewhere else.
 
rwguinn said:
From here

so, <300 cases=epidimic over a wide geographical area.
Gotcha.
Buh-bye. Again
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Each organism has it's own criteria for what = an epidemic. Essentially exceeding the background rate for that infection is involved. Same goes for case definitions, to each organism, his own.
 
The Atheist said:
Where is the evidence which suggests a higher than usual mortality rate? The opposite seems to be the case....
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The age pattern of the deaths in Mexico is the thing that currently suggests a potentially worse strain of flu. Really, we've only seen a drop in the bucket outside of Mexico. When ten thousand get infected outside Mexico, then you'll know if you have a worse than usual flu coupled with what we already know will likely be a worse than usual number of total cases involved.
 
The better thread on this topic is in the Science forum. This forum's players are not doing a good job. Thanks SG for your efforts in cross posting.

Now, how many of you very funny people live near Mexico, in Texas or CA, and are at a bit of risk in the near future due to a thing called probability?

How many?

I do. I am. But funny old thing, I am not in a panic.

I do, however, pay close attention to what CDC and WHO are saying ... since what is happening in Mexico is not something to laugh at. That the Catholic Church in Mexico City basically cancelled Mass this past Sunday ought to give one pause ...

DR
 
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MattusMaximus said:
You forgot to say...

PANIC WILDLY!!! AAAAAGGGGHHH!!! :jaw-dropp:boxedin::boggled::eye-poppi:covereyes:jaw-dropp

;)
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No need, there's no benefit in that.

Here's my experience thinking about precautions yesterday and today:

Forget it, just get some Tamiflu and a thermometer.

I'm in a state with no new variant flu, but you can't help knowing it will be here before it is officially noted.

OK, so yesterday I went to a friend's house for a lunch party, a birthday celebration. I arrive while food is still being prepared. My friend is licking her fingers and touching the deviled eggs with the same hand. Her hands went into everything that wasn't hot out of the oven. Two people share a fork. 2 of the visiting dogs sniff a few serving plates before the plates are rescued and put on higher counters. I manage to only eat the cooked dishes without offending anyone.

So today I'm at the grocery store ready to check out. Line A the bag person is coughing. I skip line A and go to line B. After using the stupid pen that writes the digital signatures that every person using a credit card or a debit card is forced to use, I also notice the cashier really has to touch the outside of everything I buy. I wonder how one could ever prevent every surface contaminant from entering your home, even if you wash your hands. Then the grocery bagger takes out a Kleenex and grossly blows her nose. This is just after finishing putting all my groceries into bags.

I get in the car and check my waterless hand cleaner. The source I looked up yesterday says 70% alcohol will work against flu. I note my stuff has 66% alcohol. Oh well, I have a case (use it in my medical practice) and am not about to toss it for new stuff. 66% will just have to do, I'm pretty sure it will probably work. But I note that I touched my car keys, the steering wheel and the door handle all before using the alcohol hand rub. Should I try to decon my keys and the steering wheel?

I think none of this will matter if I can keep my hands out out my eyes, nose and mouth. Suddenly my eye itches. I try to scratch it with the back of my finger. Then I remember that is the body part I use to push elevator buttons. Sigh....

There is no way one can leave the house without being exposed if a virus were running rampant through the community. How do you decontaminate everything that your hands eventually touch or keep your hands out of your face with 100% compliance?

It is virtually impossible. If the virus survives long on surfaces (and in some studies flu virus does) you simply cannot keep all surfaces free of contamination.

I need a better plan.
 
rwguinn said:
...
Now, I don't know the numbers, but I do know a bit about Mexico City. Even 150 deaths from respiratory problems is likely not really unusual, given the altitude, pollution levels, and general squalor of the place....
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In this case there are 150 excess deaths and in a population age one would not expect to see, even in Mexico. I don't think the whole country is shut down over mislabeling routine deaths.
 
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