Swine Flu outbreak

[Richard Masters]

IMO this is another thing being blown way out of proportion in order to drum up ratings for the evening news shows. The families of the unfortunate few who have gotten it would not agree with me.

Doubtful. Schools through Mexico are being closed, and the Mexican government is issuing surgical masks.

 

[Dymanic]

Not to mention the uncontrolled smog, and I have been there.

Mexico City's high altitude could also be a contributing factor. I wonder if case fatality rates during the 1918 pandemic were higher at higher altitudes. Never thought to look at that.

 

[TjW]

IMO this is another thing being blown way out of proportion in order to drum up ratings for the evening news shows. The families of the unfortunate few who have gotten it would not agree with me.

The families of the unfortunate few who work in public health labs don't agree with you either.

 

[MattusMaximus]

I heard an interesting theory for the virus today. We in the west created it so that it would infect Muslims and make them unclean (because it's a pig virus).

Linky?

Btw, speaking of conspiracy theories, the David Icke forums are going gah-gah over this... my favorite is that the virus was put out there intentionally in order to force us all to take vaccines. And, of course, the government has some nefarious plan in place related to these vaccines...

** cue spooky music **

 

[MattusMaximus]

According to Michael Savage the virus may have been genetically produced by middle eastern terrorists and introduced into Mexico. Then the illegal aliens will bring the virus to America, He is refusing to eat in any restaurants with Latin Americans employees.

Linky?

Great, now the anti-immigration nuts are going to be using this as an argument to "keep them damn foreigners" out of the United States.

Sounds like the fun is just beginning.

 

[Bill Thompson]

Allah and the Swine Flu

Perhaps Palestine is behind the Swine Flu and Allah is punishing the infidels for supporting the Jewish occupiers.

 

[timhau]

What is the usual mortality rate of influenza outbreaks in Mexico?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

What´s that got to do with what I said?

There are around 1.000 cases of this "novel" virus in the whole of Mexico (1.000 out of 110.000.000)

How likely is it that around 100 tourists (a couple in Spain, a dozen or so in the UK and New zealand etc.) manage to catch this virus?

Not very.

No, there are ~1,000 recognized cases in Mexico.

Mexico is currently only counting the serious cases that have come into hospitals. They haven't begun to assess how many people in the country actually have the infection.

With SARS, the few cases that spread outside the initial infection area took several months to even show up after many people were infected and already dying in China. (The total SARS count didn't include many of the initial outbreak cases.) And those international cases were all traced to a common source, a hotel elevator in Hong Kong.

The cases of swine flu now have no such single connection. And there are recognized cases in 9 countries including widely spread unconnected cases in the US. For that to happen this infection has to have already spread to tens of thousands in Mexico.

 

[Undesired Walrus]

There are now two confirmed cases of Swine Flu in Scotland.

Allegedly the UK is the second best prepared for such a wide-spread outbreak.

 

[Ron_Tomkins]

I fear for Porky the pig. I hope he's all right

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Ha, I just made exactly that point elsewhere. I think probably 108 deaths from 20,000,000 cases just doesn't have the same impact.

20,000,000 is probably way too high of an estimate.

Some of the tests have come back positive for swine flu among the internationals already, so it seems more likely to actually be a less virulent strain of influenza with a low percentage even seeking medical care for it, which has the effect of making nice scary numbers when you bring out the dead.

There's also the problem of the not so average ages of those dead. If 20,000,000 were infected you'd expect to see an average 'U' age distribution. The 'W' age distribution is a bad sign.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Repost from the other thread: We saw a huge concerted effort to prevent SARS from becoming what was feared to be the next large pandemic. I would think the same effort will be applied to this situation.

It is serious, it will probably be efficiently contained, and it will probably make it into some stupid list of "media scares" in the future...

Too late for containment. It will definitely not be contained.

The difference with SARS is that every case was ill enough to come to the attention of the medical community. So every contact could be found and isolated.

We'll never find every case of flu at this point.

 

[Pardalis]

There's also the problem of the not so average ages of those dead. If 20,000,000 were infected you'd expect to see an average 'U' age distribution. The 'W' age distribution is a bad sign.

You mean the relatively young age of those getting sick is more of a problem?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

My guess is the tourists did not all catch it in Mexico, but rather caught it from each other.

Where did this occur?

I think the direct connection to Mexico is true for most of the cases now, but soon that will not be the case as it spreads from the travelers to others. Many of them went through airports changing planes on their way home. With such a short incubation period I think it's safe to say they seeded the world.

Also, the 1000 cases in Mexico may simply be confirmed cases due to severity. ...
So I think it's safe to say that the number is greater than 1000 actual cases, especially since the confirmed cases are spread across multiple states. I'm sure a virologist can offer a better explanation and prediction, though.

It's not a guess, it's a fact. In all the medical reports on this it has been clearly stated which cases were and were not being counted in Mexico compared to elsewhere.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Mexico City's high altitude could also be a contributing factor. I wonder if case fatality rates during the 1918 pandemic were higher at higher altitudes. Never thought to look at that.

No, that didn't happen in 1918. I'd consider smog before altitude in Mexico City.

 

[Pardalis]

The other thing I'm wondering about is when did the 100 people who didn't make it get infected? How many days did they have the disease until their deaths?

We've first learned of this just a few days ago, and already there are casualties?

Not too long ago I played that online game for fun, but now I'm not so sure...

 

[alfaniner]

Why is this any different from a regular flu? I probably wouldn't be concerned about it if there weren't so many people saying "Don't be too concerned about it."

 

[Morrigan]

Anti-virals and **** like that cause another kind of problem such as Feminization,

What does a phenomenon caused by hormonal imbalance have to do with anti-virals?

so letting a bunch of commercially thinking nutjobs decide about solutions isn't either good for the economy nor for the environment. And transporting animals all over the world isn't helpful either to prevent any biological threats to humans.

You have no idea what you're talking about, do you?

I'm all for regional breeding and consume without chemical/medical treatment, so the consument does know where their meet comes from. You, on the other hand, seem to prefer medication and chemicals as a solution, which strikes me as quite stupid and self-destructive, to be honest with you.

Oh dear. Where's Rolfe where we need her?

 

[The Atheist]

Why is this any different from a regular flu? I probably wouldn't be concerned about it if there weren't so many people saying "Don't be too concerned about it."

It doesn't seem to be.

But it's new and has a much scarier name.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Why is this any different from a regular flu? I probably wouldn't be concerned about it if there weren't so many people saying "Don't be too concerned about it."

You should be concerned about regular flu. And equally concerned about this strain. But concerned means: warrants reasonable precautions.

A flu shot every year, the benefit by far outweighs any risks which are negligible.

Good handwashing.

Stay home when sick.

Get a thermometer if you don't have one and for any fever >101, see a health care provider that day.

That's all you need to do.