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NRA doesn't like Australia's Gun Stats

a_unique_person

Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
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To Mods: I can't see the 'no new gun threads' message up any more, so I am assuming I can start one that is actually different to the others.

https://theconversation.com/faking-...-americans-abuse-australian-crime-stats-11678

The Sandy Hook massacre and President Obama’s response to it has refocused attention on impact of regulation on American gun crime. Crime statistics before and after the implementation of gun laws provide a quantifiable measure of their impact. As a consequence, Australia’s gun laws and their impact have become part of the American gun debate.
In the wake of the Port Arthur massacre and Monash University shootings, the conservative government of John Howard introduced a series of gun laws. These restricted who could own guns and the type of guns they could own.
While the impact of the Australian gun laws is still debated, there have been large decreases in the number of firearm suicides and the number of firearm homicides in Australia. Homicide rates in Australia are only 1.2 per 100,000 people, with less than 15 percent of these resulting from firearms.
Prior to the implementation of the gun laws, 112 people were killed in 11 mass shootings. Since the implementation of the gun laws, no comparable gun massacres have occured in Australia.
Remarkably, American pro-gun advocates try to use the impact of the Australian gun law reform to make a case that reform “doesn’t work”. This seems amazing given the homicide rate in the United States is 5 per 100,000 people, with most homicides involving firearms.
When gun advocates use Australian crime stats, they sometimes employ a number of misleading tricks and sleights of hand. These tricks are common to several politically charged debates, and are a form of pseudo-science. Lets look at these tricks in action.
In the piece, titled "Standing Guard", the organisation’s increasingly strident public face, executive vice president Wayne LaPierre, argues that elements of the American media back Mr Obama’s alleged plan to create “a US version of the Australian/British tyranny”.

As evidence Mr LaPierre cites an editorial by Mr Howard published by The New York Times after the Sandy Hook massacre entitled “I Went After Guns. Obama Can, Too.”
“Virtually no US media outlet was honest enough to describe what actually happened to our formerly free English-speaking cousins as a direct result of mass murders committed by lone, criminally insane killers,” wrote Mr LaPierre.

...

Throughout the year, when the NRA has raised the Australian experience, the organisation has emphasised Australian media’s reporting of spates of shootings in inner Sydney and Melbourne rather than comparing long-term nationwide gun death rates.


If you look at the incidents over time though....



The evidence speaks for itself.
 
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If you look at the incidents over time though....

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The evidence speaks for itself.
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Where did these stats come from? Mass shootings in the USA have not increased, I bet the data from that graph is from the ridiculously cherry picked and wildly incorrect mother jones article a while back.

Since the year of the Port Arthur massacre US homicide rates have fallen 36%, without any additional national gun control laws. Australia's rate since 1996 has fallen 37%, virtually identical to the US decline.

The affect on homicide rates of Australia's gun laws is not apparent in the statistics.
 
Good try. The fact remains that mass firearm killings have disappeared since heavy restrictions on firearm ownership. No wonder the NRA is pissed in the face of this evidence.
 
I'm not a gun nut, but there really isn't enough data to form any sort of opinion. Mass shootings aren't exactly common enough to be statistically significant for anything of this sort.
 
I'm not a gun nut, but there really isn't enough data to form any sort of opinion. Mass shootings aren't exactly common enough to be statistically significant for anything of this sort.

That would partly depend on where you live, I guess.

Manopolus is right. Look at the scale on the left side of your bar graph. It runs from zero to six. In the US, the base rate is one a year, so the range really only goes from 2 to 6. Not really enough data to form a pattern, especially since one incident happening a week earlier (putting it in a different year) could sway the data so much (dropping on bar by about a quarter and raising the neighboring bar by a quarter).

Same thing applies in Australia for that chart. Are you seriously going to claim that a gun ban has prevented the very possibility of a mass shooting in Australia? How would that even work?

It might have had some very good benefits, but I don't think your data shows (or can show) anything important about mass shootings - in Australia, they are simply too rare.

By the way, does that bar graph take population into account? Is it "incident per 100,000," or "incidents overall?" Australia has less than a 10th of the US population and, as far as I can tell, the US doesn't have more than 10 mass shootings in any particular year. I don't think the graph supports any conclusion at all.
 
Good try. The fact remains that mass firearm killings have disappeared since heavy restrictions on firearm ownership. No wonder the NRA is pissed in the face of this evidence.
The NRA didn't even comment on the claims made in the OP. And Monash occurred years after the draconian restrictions implemented after Port Arthur, so the "mass killings have disappeared" claim isn't even true.

The fact remains that Australian homicide rate didn't decline any more than the US rate over that time period. People handed over their rights for no statistical benefit.
 
Manopolus is right. Look at the scale on the left side of your bar graph. It runs from zero to six. In the US, the base rate is one a year, so the range really only goes from 2 to 6. Not really enough data to form a pattern, especially since one incident happening a week earlier (putting it in a different year) could sway the data so much (dropping on bar by about a quarter and raising the neighboring bar by a quarter).

Same thing applies in Australia for that chart. Are you seriously going to claim that a gun ban has prevented the very possibility of a mass shooting in Australia? How would that even work?

It might have had some very good benefits, but I don't think your data shows (or can show) anything important about mass shootings - in Australia, they are simply too rare.

By the way, does that bar graph take population into account? Is it "incident per 100,000," or "incidents overall?" Australia has less than a 10th of the US population and, as far as I can tell, the US doesn't have more than 10 mass shootings in any particular year. I don't think the graph supports any conclusion at all.
The graph isn't even based on complete data, at least for the US side. It's based on a mother jones article that not only cherry picked data, it used incomplete data.
 
Same thing applies in Australia for that chart. Are you seriously going to claim that a gun ban has prevented the very possibility of a mass shooting in Australia? How would that even work?

Well I am. The previous firearm massacres were committed with legal and easily obtained guns. It is not at all easy to obtain a semi-automatic now.

And guess what? Neither I nor the great majority of Australians are in any way unhappy about this stare of affairs. A few gun nuts are pissed, but so what? The people have spoken. No guns, no massacres.
 
The NRA didn't even comment on the claims made in the OP. And Monash occurred years after the draconian restrictions implemented after Port Arthur, so the "mass killings have disappeared" claim isn't even true.

The fact remains that Australian homicide rate didn't decline any more than the US rate over that time period. People handed over their rights for no statistical benefit.

I've told you before that the Monash incident doesn't meet the accepted definition of a "mass killing". Two people were killed.

Secondly, Australians never had a right to own guns. The drafters of our Constitution were sensible enough to not ratify any such right.
 
Well I am. The previous firearm massacres were committed with legal and easily obtained guns. It is not at all easy to obtain a semi-automatic now.
None of which would have affected the Monash shooter.

And guess what? Neither I nor the great majority of Australians are in any way unhappy about this stare of affairs. A few gun nuts are pissed, but so what? The people have spoken. No guns, no massacres.
Yes, Australians have shown they will gladly give up their rights even when there's no evidence anything was gained by giving up those rights.
 
Yes, Australians have shown they will gladly give up their rights even when there's no evidence anything was gained by giving up those rights.

When was the last mass shooter incident in Australia?
 
Well I am. The previous firearm massacres were committed with legal and easily obtained guns. It is not at all easy to obtain a semi-automatic now.

And guess what? Neither I nor the great majority of Australians are in any way unhappy about this stare of affairs. A few gun nuts are pissed, but so what? The people have spoken. No guns, no massacres.

The thing I don't get is that some people have guns there, right? So, say a military guy who already had a gun (we had Major Hasan) or a police officer. I could accept the idea that the ban might lower the number of mass shootings, but stop them completely? Surely the possibility of a nut who steals a gun or has one for work is still there?

Heck, a terrorist could pull up in a boat with their own gun and do a mass shooting. So reduced I can buy into, but prevented or guaranteeing zero? Naw.

But then, the stats were so low to start with, you've nowhere to go but zero to improve them.

I'd look elsewhere, like the data on suicides to see an effect. Accidents and armed robberies would be good too. It's just that you have to have data to see a change in data.
 
I've told you before that the Monash incident doesn't meet the accepted definition of a "mass killing". Two people were killed.

IT was definitely a "mass shooting" though. 7 people were shot. With one handgun. He had 5 more on him, all loaded. All legally obtained. Howard fixed that too.

Where did these stats come from? Mass shootings in the USA have not increased, I bet the data from that graph is from the ridiculously cherry picked and wildly incorrect mother jones article a while back.

Since you posted this, you've confirmed it?

The graph isn't even based on complete data, at least for the US side. It's based on a mother jones article that not only cherry picked data, it used incomplete data.

Why don't you share with us the correct stats, as you believe them to be? Wouldn't that be the obvious rebuttal?
 
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So reduced I can buy into, but prevented or guaranteeing zero? Naw.

Well I didn't say it would reduce to zero, but so far, so good. 17 years without a gun massacre is fine by me.

Hunters still hunt, as bolt action guns are still legal. I've enjoyed a couple of days trap shooting (I was quite good at it, as it turns out). But we don't allow guns to be owned for self-defence, nor semi-automatic rifles. We have a handful of butt hurt gun nuts. Bug deal.
 
By the way, does that bar graph take population into account? Is it "incident per 100,000," or "incidents overall?" Australia has less than a 10th of the US population and, as far as I can tell, the US doesn't have more than 10 mass shootings in any particular year. I don't think the graph supports any conclusion at all.

Well the argument is that after 1996, the numbers drop to 0. Even trying to use numbers alone doesn't make the US situation look any better. Going by the numbers alone like this, even if the US had 1 a year it would have had more than 10x mass shootings a year than Australia.


None of which would have affected the Monash shooter.


Yes, Australians have shown they will gladly give up their rights even when there's no evidence anything was gained by giving up those rights.

We now have to go through a background check and get a license to own a gun. If I don;t have a licens and I want to fire a pistol, I have to go to a pistol range. Will the Tyranny ever stop? Help me along here, it is often preached that our reduction in the numbers of gun murders is due to a variety of laws (Of course its most likely correct that various factors are involved... but as we supposedly know the state and national gun laws, could never contribute to that), but Ive never heard anybody mention exactly which ones it could be. Do you have any ideas at what the laws or policies we implimented since the 80s which could be causing the decrease in gun murders?
 
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