Merged Now What?

[GlennB]

The EU can take a running jump. We'll make a formal declaration when it suits our interests to do so.

The EU has ways of making people pay for being difficult (mostly involving Wolfgang Schaeuble, Merkel's attack dog). In this case we have much to negotiate and a lot of it is for the UK's ultimate benefit, not the EU's. Our bargaining position is not strong.

 

[Hlafordlaes]

Best case scenario shaping up in my local conversations: Scotland finally separates, the EU wisely makes sure (re)joining is painless and quick, and we get growth in Scotland and Ireland from businesses relocating there. (This, although very different a case, would be wildly cheered by the Catalans, and give greater impetus to their own efforts.) If this played out, it would act to strengthen the EU.

The home of Locke may have left (sniff), but at least that of Hume would remain.

 

[Corsair 115]

Forecasts will be wrong. But they still inform.

Forecasts only inform if they have some track record of accuracy. If they have no track record of accuracy, then you might as well get a forecast from a psychic. It would have as much predictive power.

They show the direction and quantum of change. Whether the economy is 8% or 12% worse off is not really the point but rather that's it's worse off by a significant amount. To dismiss that forecast because the real number might be 9% instead of 10% would be missing the whole point.

What constitutes a "significant amount"?

 

[Klimax]

So, what you seem to be saying is that there are a lot of variables and unknowns. In which case, that would seem to make any future projection even less likely to be accurate.

General case will be most likely correct (Loses), just size will be mostly off.

 

[Rincewind]

Well - where's Kyoon when you need something explained?

 

[dudalb]

Well - where's Kyoon when you need something explained?

Don't say his name again...say it three times and he will appear a la Candyman and Beetlejuice.

 

[Ambrosia]

Yeah it's only right that the future of the whole of the EU should have to wait whilst the Tories get their act together.

hyperbole much?

ETA: Cameron should have had the nerve to give the leave campaign what they wanted and invoked the leave clause this morning.

Cameron is many things, but really really stupid, isn't one of them.

Once the UK invokes article 50 the clock is ticking. It's in the UK's best interests to have a period of time where we decide what the best way to go about things is before invoking the clock.

The EU can wait until we're good and ready. If it were as good as it thinks that it is then the UK wouldn't have got 17m+ Leave votes.

It's in the EUs interest to fast track the UKs exit ASAP and to not give the UK good exit terms to discourage other nations from following a similar path.

this referendum isn't even legally binding. It might turn out that the government want to ignore the result. Perhaps call a general election quickly with EU membership as the main/only issue, invoking article 50 is the point of no return, we're leaving, it's official, so there's no real need to rush to go do that the day after the polls close.

 

[ryu238]

As this art points out several voters never thought it would go through and did it as a joke: http://jollyjack.deviantart.com/art/Brexit-Wit-617421714

 

[3point14]

Cameron is many things, but really really stupid, isn't one of them.

I think making suicidal bets on the mood of the electorate in order to win an internal Tory Party fight counts as really, really stupid.

 

[Ambrosia]

Do idiocies only at your own peril. Pretty sure, nobody will entertain you for long and the more idiocies will mean much worse conditions and agreements.

Well I'm not talking about putting this off forever, but it would be prudent to decide who is going to lead the negotiations with the EU over the terms of the UK exit, it would also be a good idea to decide what kind of deal we would want, do we want EU-lite, a complete separation, something in between.

If DC has said that there will be a new man in #10 by October then it's likely that they will invoke article 50 before the end of November.

~20 weeks from polling day to starting the formal procedures isn't that long, in the general scheme of things.


If the EU imposes punitive measures on the UK to "make an example" then it'll end up hurting them too. We aren't leaving Europe. The UK isn't going to migrate to the mid Atlantic. We still need to trade with European countries, and they will benefit from trading with us. UK citizens will want to go and work in Europe and Europeans will want to come and work and live here.

e.g. German cars. We buy lots of German cars in the UK. (they make damn good cars) About 1/5th of German car production is bought by the UK (~820 000 cars last year) Germany are unlikely to want to put a big dent in that figure by imposing lots of tariffs. The UK certainly won't want high EU tariffs so it's highly likely that a post Brexit deal will include them.

 

[Ambrosia]

I think making suicidal bets on the mood of the electorate in order to win an internal Tory Party fight counts as really, really stupid.

He was ~500k votes short of winning and I'm pretty sure he never expected the vote to be close. Hindsight is always 20-20.

 

[Corsair 115]

General case will be most likely correct (Loses), just size will be mostly off.

Would you like to share some citations for the 'general case'?

 

[Jules Galen]

I'm confident that once the Hysteria is over, the Pound will recover and within a year it will be as if the Brexit never happened. However, the real and significant consequences of Brexit won't be felt until about 10 years from now.

Within 10 years, the movement of manufacturing firms from the EU to the UK will have longed stopped and whatever EU Manufacturing firms are left in the UK will not be expanding, but instead seeking to expand in eastern Europe. For the next few years, there will be enough Sunset Rules to insure that goods flow freely and cheaply between Britain and the EU, but as these Sunset Rules expire, no new rules will be put in place. As Manufacturing in the UK slowly fades away, the country becomes ever-more Financialized until it is just one big Real Estate Bizzare and Bank chocked full of Debtors.

As a result, the UK won't collapse, it will just slowly eat itself over the next 20 years as every value-added industry leaves it and all they are left with is Real Estate, Insurance and Finance - a typical FIRE Economy.

 

[3point14]

He was ~500k votes short of winning and I'm pretty sure he never expected the vote to be close. Hindsight is always 20-20.

His entire career and the break up of one, perhaps even two unions along with the possibility of the ruination of the county's economy on a coin flip?

 

[crescent]

EU Referendum Rules triggering a 2nd EU Referendum

We the undersigned call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based a turnout less than 75% there should be another referendum.

Just under 1/2 million votes so far. The website was apparently difficult to access for much of the day due to heavy traffic.

I am getting the impression that this referendum will not be the final deciding factor here. The "remain" voters seem to be gearing up for a rematch.

 

[lionking]

IIRC people in Northern Ireland of Irish descent (ie the vast majority) have the right to Republic citizenship even if they remain in NI. Expect a very large surge of new Republic citizens.

 

[Garrison]

hyperbole much?


The EU can wait until we're good and ready. If it were as good as it thinks that it is then the UK wouldn't have got 17m+ Leave votes.

Assuming of course those votes were cast based on informed judgement about the EU, rather than say endless hysterical headlines about immigrants. Also assuming that those casting votes for leave actually want Brexit and weren't just 'sending a message' to the establishment.

 

[Garrison]

e.g. German cars. We buy lots of German cars in the UK. (they make damn good cars) About 1/5th of German car production is bought by the UK (~820 000 cars last year) Germany are unlikely to want to put a big dent in that figure by imposing lots of tariffs. The UK certainly won't want high EU tariffs so it's highly likely that a post Brexit deal will include them.

Great that's one down and another 26 countries to go to get that sweet deal passed. basically Brexiters are crossing theirs fingers that EU politicians/electorates are smarter than ours, good luck with that.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Well I'm not talking about putting this off forever, but it would be prudent to decide who is going to lead the negotiations with the EU over the terms of the UK exit, it would also be a good idea to decide what kind of deal we would want, do we want EU-lite, a complete separation, something in between.

If DC has said that there will be a new man in #10 by October then it's likely that they will invoke article 50 before the end of November.

~20 weeks from polling day to starting the formal procedures isn't that long, in the general scheme of things.


If the EU imposes punitive measures on the UK to "make an example" then it'll end up hurting them too. We aren't leaving Europe. The UK isn't going to migrate to the mid Atlantic. We still need to trade with European countries, and they will benefit from trading with us. UK citizens will want to go and work in Europe and Europeans will want to come and work and live here.

e.g. German cars. We buy lots of German cars in the UK. (they make damn good cars) About 1/5th of German car production is bought by the UK (~820 000 cars last year) Germany are unlikely to want to put a big dent in that figure by imposing lots of tariffs. The UK certainly won't want high EU tariffs so it's highly likely that a post Brexit deal will include them.

Why would Poland vote to allow a sweet deal for the UK on German cars. (For example)

 

[Klimax]

Well I'm not talking about putting this off forever, but it would be prudent to decide who is going to lead the negotiations with the EU over the terms of the UK exit, it would also be a good idea to decide what kind of deal we would want, do we want EU-lite, a complete separation, something in between.

If DC has said that there will be a new man in #10 by October then it's likely that they will invoke article 50 before the end of November.

~20 weeks from polling day to starting the formal procedures isn't that long, in the general scheme of things.


If the EU imposes punitive measures on the UK to "make an example" then it'll end up hurting them too. We aren't leaving Europe. The UK isn't going to migrate to the mid Atlantic. We still need to trade with European countries, and they will benefit from trading with us. UK citizens will want to go and work in Europe and Europeans will want to come and work and live here.

e.g. German cars. We buy lots of German cars in the UK. (they make damn good cars) About 1/5th of German car production is bought by the UK (~820 000 cars last year) Germany are unlikely to want to put a big dent in that figure by imposing lots of tariffs. The UK certainly won't want high EU tariffs so it's highly likely that a post Brexit deal will include them.

First, it doesn't look like it will matter much. GB no longer exists for EU. (Got excluded)

Second, why the hell should my country vote to give you some sweet deals, while leaving? Why should we want to reward you for idiocy? Why should majority of other countries either? You are mostly irrelevant to us...

You are not entitled to anything but basic WTO trading. Anything more is only up to us. I don't see anybody giving you much...

And Germany is unlikely to give you much either. You will be massively lucky if they don't make an example out of you.

Would you like to share some citations for the 'general case'?

Not sure what you're asking, but:
Brexit vote leaves UK on brink of recession, economists say

Or maybe I wrote badly. Possible too. (I meant prevailing economical predictions)