Electric Vehicles

[acbytesla]

That's a nice idea (and I don't mean that snarkily or disingenuously) but even if a car runs "forever" (for our purposes) people are just generally not going to want to keep a car forever. They are gonna want a new car for new features (which no cannot be updated forever indefinitely) or just for general "I'm tired of this car and want a new one."

I mean honestly how many people really drive a car until it is literally beyond all hope of being repaired back to a drivable state now?

There is almost no such thing.

But I do think you're missing something. What about those people who can't afford a new car? You know, that sizable population that purchases vehicles with 100 to 250 thousand miles? The cost of replacing a battery for a Tesla model 3 at an authorized Tesla repair shop is 16K. That's too much.

A secondary market is essential for the success of EVs as well as the economy.

If I buy your Ford or Toyota with 100K, I might easily drive it for another 150K without a major repair. And you can sell it for $8,000 to $18,000. I'm not buying your model 3 for that price knowing I would be certainly spending another $16K in the very foreseeable future.

 

[MRC_Hans]

We're not talking about battery swaps as a mid-life repair/replacement, we're talking it being the defacto way of refueling a car.

Imagine if gasoline was only sold in sealed tanks and to refuel your car you had to swap out the gas tank.

Well, obviously the latter would be silly. The problem is that charging takes, even at best, a hundred times longer than just filling up a gas tak. But I basically agree: Battery swap instead of charging has many problems. Apart from the already mentioned, it requires a standardization of batteries that will hamper development of better batteries.

So the charging time will instead require people to change habits ( nearly as hard ). You will need to plan your trip, as if flying: How much fuel (=charge) do I need for this trip, when and where can I recharge, what can I do while the car charges?

Hans

 

[MRC_Hans]

A side drift: Way back in the day my dad was a great fan of the two-stroke three cylinder SAAB. They advertised that the engine (which is valveless) had only seven moving parts, to which he replied, "Yes, six squirrels and a cat with a whip."

Well, it did sound like that.

Hans

 

[Fast Eddie B]

The drivetrain of a typical ICE vehicle; engine, transmission, the whole smack, has about 2,000 moving parts.

An electric engine and drivetrain? About 20.

That pretty much tells you all you need to know.

Well, that assumes complexity is correlated with unreliability. Not necessarily.

Thinking back to the early 1970's, a BSA or Triumph motorcycle was stone-axe simple, and yet they tended to be notoriously unreliable. I remember when the Honda GoldWing came out, folks were bemoaning the complexity, with liquid cooling, multiple CV carbs, fuel pump, that sort of thing. Yet all that complexity still resulted in a very reliable motorcycle, some running 100,000+ miles, which was very unlikely on the more primitive offerings.

Since then I've never been prone to shy away from complexity for complexity's sake.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Well, obviously the latter would be silly. The problem is that charging takes, even at best, a hundred times longer than just filling up a gas tak. But I basically agree: Battery swap instead of charging has many problems. Apart from the already mentioned, it requires a standardization of batteries that will hamper development of better batteries.

So the charging time will instead require people to change habits ( nearly as hard ). You will need to plan your trip, as if flying: How much fuel (=charge) do I need for this trip, when and where can I recharge, what can I do while the car charges?

That's why the whole "I'll just hummingbird from charger to charger, topping off just enough to make it to the next charger" solution will not work. People aren't going to do the land based equivalent of a flight plane to visit their Auntie Ruth for Thanksgiving Dinner.

//BTW. Lest any pedants sniff out this thread yes I'm aware that technically you aren't "charging" an electric car battery in the same way you charge your cell phone.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMxB7zA-e4Y

 

[MRC_Hans]

Even if all this is true, it was not likely true when my car was new in 2013. I look forward to a more reliable future, but I am speaking of the choices that have been available up to now. I don't think the tide has completely turned yet.

And, of course, even new that car cost under 13 thousand dollars. Granted, there's a complex relationship between cost and environmental responsibility, but at some point you have to try to figure out how many of these little boxes you could stock up on for the price of a single Tesla.
e.t.a. I think I misspoke. The original price on my 4 door hatchback with auto transmission was a little under 15k.

Well, the Tesla was never meant to be the economic solution. It was the fancy car that could make wealthy people fell good and imagine they cared for the environment.

What we need to look at is the bottom level car. I'm not sure it exists yet, but what would be the price of the cheapo EV? So far they seem to compare with middle level family vehicles, but wait till demand comes up.

Hans

 

[MRC_Hans]

If we do start seeing three, four, five hundred plus thousand mile car being the norm we probably won't make frames out of steel at that point.

I would expect composite plastics to take over in the not far future.

Hans

 

[JoeMorgue]

Well, that assumes complexity is correlated with unreliability. Not necessarily.

Thinking back to the early 1970's, a BSA or Triumph motorcycle was stone-axe simple, and yet they tended to be notoriously unreliable. I remember when the Honda GoldWing came out, folks were bemoaning the complexity, with liquid cooling, multiple CV carbs, fuel pump, that sort of thing. Yet all that complexity still resulted in a very reliable motorcycle, some running 100,000+ miles, which was very unlikely on the more primitive offerings.

Since then I've never been prone to shy away from complexity for complexity's sake.

Well yeah we traded away complexity when we got something else out of it, but rarely just "make it more complicated for complexity's sake."

A 2 stroke engine just isn't as good as a four stroke one, so the trade off in complexity is worth it. Back up cameras and automatic transmissions and sunroofs and heated buttocks massaging seats make cars more complicated but give us stuff in return.

But with 55,000 dollar Teslas approaching hypercar territory performance with better safety and better efficiency with a motor that's little more than glorified coil of wire induction motor isn't a problem.

 

[acbytesla]

Well, that assumes complexity is correlated with unreliability. Not necessarily.

Thinking back to the early 1970's, a BSA or Triumph motorcycle was stone-axe simple, and yet they tended to be notoriously unreliable. I remember when the Honda GoldWing came out, folks were bemoaning the complexity, with liquid cooling, multiple CV carbs, fuel pump, that sort of thing. Yet all that complexity still resulted in a very reliable motorcycle, some running 100,000+ miles, which was very unlikely on the more primitive offerings.

Since then I've never been prone to shy away from complexity for complexity's sake.

The GoldWings can go forever. Super reliable as are most Hondas. Not sure comparing it to Triumphs and a BSA is fair.

 

[acbytesla]

Well yeah we traded away complexity when we got something else out of it, but rarely just "make it more complicated for complexity's sake."

A 2 stroke engine just isn't as good as a four stroke one, so the trade off in complexity is worth it. Back up cameras and automatic transmissions and sunroofs and heated buttocks massaging seats make cars more complicated but give us stuff in return.

But with 55,000 dollar Teslas approaching hypercar territory performance with better safety and better efficiency with a motor that's little more than glorified coil of wire induction motor isn't a problem.

Except the Tesla has all kinds of complexity. The drivetrain is the only simple thing about them. It's not exactly a modern Model T.

Also as a side note, 2 strokes are having a comeback. Check out Achates.

 

[Dr. Keith]

That's why the whole "I'll just hummingbird from charger to charger, topping off just enough to make it to the next charger" solution will not work. People aren't going to do the land based equivalent of a flight plane to visit their Auntie Ruth for Thanksgiving Dinner.

//BTW. Lest any pedants sniff out this thread yes I'm aware that technically you aren't "charging" an electric car battery in the same way you charge your cell phone.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMxB7zA-e4Y

Cool video. Thanks.

 

[Galaxie]

Except the Tesla has all kinds of complexity. The drivetrain is the only simple thing about them. It's not exactly a modern Model T.

Also as a side note, 2 strokes are having a comeback. Check out Achates.

I'd buy the hell out of a modern Model T: weighs nothing, tiny engine (gas mileage!), no stupid touchscreen controls...

The Achates concept is interesting, but I remain skeptical that fixed ports can be that efficient. I guess I'd better read their tech papers.

 

[jadebox]

I'd buy the hell out of a modern Model T: weighs nothing, tiny engine (gas mileage!), no stupid touchscreen controls...

Many of the Model T's competitors were EVs.

 

[acbytesla]

I'd buy the hell out of a modern Model T: weighs nothing, tiny engine (gas mileage!), no stupid touchscreen controls...

The Achates concept is interesting, but I remain skeptical that fixed ports can be that efficient. I guess I'd better read their tech papers.

I understand what you mean about the Model T.

As for Achates. It looks promising to me. Here's an Engineering geek explaining it.
https://youtu.be/UF5j1DvC954


They have integrated a 10.6 3 cylinder Achates engine in Peterbuilt commercial trucks and passed California emissions. They will be fleet testing it with Peterbilt this year. Achates claims as much as 40 percent efficiency improvements over the best ICEs today.

They are also working with the Army on their 14,3 3 cylinder Advanced Combat Engine and testing it in the Bradley Fighting Vehicle this year.

It will be interesting to see how it performs on the road. I'm optimistic that EVs will one day become dominant. Just not that confident it will happen soon.

 

[Galaxie]

Many of the Model T's competitors were EVs.

This is true

 

[acbytesla]

Many of the Model T's competitors were EVs.

This is true

They of course had the same problem. The battery and how to charge it.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

I'd buy the hell out of a modern Model T: weighs nothing, tiny engine (gas mileage!), no stupid touchscreen controls...

The Achates concept is interesting, but I remain skeptical that fixed ports can be that efficient. I guess I'd better read their tech papers.

No crumple zones though. The car will survive a wreck, but they'll have to pressure wash your battered remains out of the cabin before handing it off to your next of kin.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

... The phrase "drive a car until the wheels fall off" is often used, but EV's may make that more possible. Keep driving it until the chassis is so worn and rusty that it no longer makes sense to keep swapping out failed components.

Well, I did that with my previous car. 20 years, 450,000 km. Chassis rust just wasn't worth re-repairing. (It did have one replacement engine in that time. Cost me two or three hundred quid secondhand and I fitted it myself. Okay I may not be entirely typical.)

There may well be a time when people do that with electric cars (they're already doing it with Prius's) though I get the impression the manufacturers really would rather discourage that stuff. All too easy to detect a non-officially-authorised hardware change and shut down in pique. Right to repair is quite political in the US so if the rest of us ever get the right to do it it'll likely be thanks to American consumer pressure.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

That's what has me wondering, what's to keep an EV from just running forever if you keep replacing worn out batteries every decade or so? Could be a real "ship of Theseus" situation, or at least for a longer period of time than a traditional ICE car.

So long as replacement batteries are available at reasonable cost, practically forever. The electric drive chain is so smooth and pollution free that a 20 year old car could be almost the same as new if quality materials are used and it's looked after. My Leaf was 8 years old when I bought it and people think it's a new car.

An electric would likely be approaching battery end of life, and with first cost as a factor, I doubt it could give better cost benefit ratio. That's likely to change in the near future, but so far, it's a hard sell.

Not even close. An electric with good thermal management (which is nearly all of htem) would have used less than half of its battery life. Perhaps substantially less than half.

An electric car that's 8 years old now probably is nearing the end of its life, because it will probably be a 1st generation Nissan Leaf. But more modern cars have better batteries. The electric car you buy today will probably last a lot longer.

 

[acbytesla]

So long as replacement batteries are available at reasonable cost, practically forever. The electric drive chain is so smooth and pollution free that a 20 year old car could be almost the same as new if quality materials are used and it's looked after. My Leaf was 8 years old when I bought it and people think it's a new car.

An electric car that's 8 years old now probably is nearing the end of its life, because it will probably be a 1st generation Nissan Leaf. But more modern cars have better batteries. The electric car you buy today will probably last a lot longer.

The battery is almost everything. It's the major piece of the puzzle. The interesting part of this is because of the limitations of the batteries, much of the work has gone into squeezing the most out every watt. The electric drivetrains are better than ever and will only get better.

If they could make a cheap battery that could store enough and charge fast enough we would see cheap EVs. Much cheaper than ICE vehicles.