Electric Vehicles

[JoeMorgue]

We're not talking about battery swaps as a mid-life repair/replacement, we're talking it being the defacto way of refueling a car.

Imagine if gasoline was only sold in sealed tanks and to refuel your car you had to swap out the gas tank.

 

[crescent]

How much of an ordeal is it to swap a battery? I mean, people get engines and transmissions rebuilt all the time, and that's usually an expensive and time consuming process. I'm not saying it has to be super fast and easy, but if such a swap means doubling the lifespan of the car, it's probably worth spending a small bit rather than paying for a new vehicle.

The rest of the car usually has a lot of life left in it at 100,000 miles. It strikes me as awfully wasteful if battery lifespan means that the whole car is basically junk at only 150,000 miles.

"Swapping batteries" in the context of this thread means switching out a depleted battery for a charged battery instead of waiting for the battery to recharge. Like a gas station, only instead of gas you get fresh batteries for your car while your old battery charges up to go into someone else's car later in the day. I really don't see that happening.

That's not the same as replacing batteries that no longer hold a full charge. Replacing batteries happens, but is rare.

It is rare because they last a really, really long time. Longer than most ICE engines go between rebuilds. Much longer. I mean, the 100k warranty is similar to that of an ICE powertrain warranty - and most of those are not junk the moment the warranty expires, so I don't see the expectation that EV's would be junk the moment the warranty expires.



ETA: How Long Does A Tesla Battery Last?

Given that the Tesla batteries are manufactured to last between 300,000 and 500,000 miles, replacement should not be a worry that Tesla owners have. The estimated cost to replace a Tesla Model 3 battery is somewhere in the range of $3,000 $7,000.

 

[jadebox]

So I'd say that 8-10 years, 100-150 thousand miles-ish is probably a fairly good upper limit to how much you can fully trust your batteries since that's as far as the big players are willing to put their money on the line.

Those numbers are low since the manufacturers are only going to guarantee that the batteries last about half as long as they are really expected to last.

My i3's battery has a warranty for eight years or 100,000 miles. If the capacity goes below 70% of the advertised capacity during that period, the battery will be repaired or replaced. So, I can expect that after about 16 years or 200,000 miles, the capacity will still be at least 70% of the advertised capacity.

My car is six years old and has about 50,000 miles on it. It still has 100% of the original capacity.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Note I didn't say "will last" I said "can be trusted."

A beater car will still often last, sometimes for a long while. A beater car can't be trusted, there's a difference.

I'm not talking "Well in the lab we determined that after X amount of miles the failure rate on battery cells stands at 1 in XXXXXXXX..."

I'm talking about that raw, gut feeling "Do I trust this car to not leave me stranded."

Everyone who's ever owned a beater car and had to relay on it as their only means of transport knows what I'm talking about.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

"Swapping batteries" in the context of this thread means switching out a depleted battery for a charged battery instead of waiting for the battery to recharge. Like a gas station, only instead of gas you get fresh batteries for your car while your old battery charges up to go into someone else's car later in the day. I really don't see that happening.

That's not the same as replacing batteries that no longer hold a full charge. Replacing batteries happens, but is rare.

It is rare because they last a really, really long time. Longer than most ICE engines go between rebuilds. Much longer. I mean, the 100k warranty is similar to that of an ICE powertrain warranty - and most of those are not junk the moment the warranty expires, so I don't see the expectation that EV's would be junk the moment the warranty expires.



ETA: How Long Does A Tesla Battery Last?

Curious what would become the critical failure for an electric car where repair was no longer the economically viable solution.

Like you say, for ICE cars usually a significant failure of either the motor or transmission is often what prompts the car being scrapped and replaced for new.

My understanding is that electric motors tend to also last much longer than an ICE. I suppose there's no good way to know what a realistic service life for the entire electric car is until we've had more of them on the road for longer. An ICE car that doesn't get wrecked can easily see over 200,000 miles before it's no longer economical to keep it running. It would be nice if EV's meant an even longer max service life.

Is the electric battery the most likely point of failure, or is there some other mechanical part that is likely to give up the ghost first?

 

[JoeMorgue]

The drivetrain of a typical ICE vehicle; engine, transmission, the whole smack, has about 2,000 moving parts.

An electric engine and drivetrain? About 20.

That pretty much tells you all you need to know.

 

[bruto]

Not even close. An electric with good thermal management (which is nearly all of htem) would have used less than half of its battery life. Perhaps substantially less than half.

HOW LONG SHOULD AN ELECTRIC CAR’S BATTERY LAST?

Even if all this is true, it was not likely true when my car was new in 2013. I look forward to a more reliable future, but I am speaking of the choices that have been available up to now. I don't think the tide has completely turned yet.

And, of course, even new that car cost under 13 thousand dollars. Granted, there's a complex relationship between cost and environmental responsibility, but at some point you have to try to figure out how many of these little boxes you could stock up on for the price of a single Tesla.

e.t.a. I think I misspoke. The original price on my 4 door hatchback with auto transmission was a little under 15k.

 

[bruto]

The drivetrain of a typical ICE vehicle; engine, transmission, the whole smack, has about 2,000 moving parts.

An electric engine and drivetrain? About 20.

That pretty much tells you all you need to know.

A side drift: Way back in the day my dad was a great fan of the two-stroke three cylinder SAAB. They advertised that the engine (which is valveless) had only seven moving parts, to which he replied, "Yes, six squirrels and a cat with a whip."

 

[TurkeysGhost]

The drivetrain of a typical ICE vehicle; engine, transmission, the whole smack, has about 2,000 moving parts.

An electric engine and drivetrain? About 20.

That pretty much tells you all you need to know.

That's what has me wondering, what's to keep an EV from just running forever if you keep replacing worn out batteries every decade or so? Could be a real "ship of Theseus" situation, or at least for a longer period of time than a traditional ICE car.

The phrase "drive a car until the wheels fall off" is often used, but EV's may make that more possible. Keep driving it until the chassis is so worn and rusty that it no longer makes sense to keep swapping out failed components.

Or perhaps I'm oversimplifying...

 

[jadebox]

Note I didn't say "will last" I said "can be trusted".

Okay. But, I tend to trust my cars for some time after the warranty expires.

 

[JoeMorgue]

That's what has me wondering, what's to keep an EV from just running forever if you keep replacing worn out batteries every decade or so? Could be a real "ship of Theseus" situation, or at least for a longer period of time than a traditional ICE car.

The phrase "drive a car until the wheels fall off" is often used, but EV's may make that more possible. Keep driving it until the chassis is so worn and rusty that it no longer makes sense to keep swapping out failed components.

Or perhaps I'm oversimplifying...

That's a nice idea (and I don't mean that snarkily or disingenuously) but even if a car runs "forever" (for our purposes) people are just generally not going to want to keep a car forever. They are gonna want a new car for new features (which no cannot be updated forever indefinitely) or just for general "I'm tired of this car and want a new one."

I mean honestly how many people really drive a car until it is literally beyond all hope of being repaired back to a drivable state now?

 

[JoeMorgue]

A side drift: Way back in the day my dad was a great fan of the two-stroke three cylinder SAAB. They advertised that the engine (which is valveless) had only seven moving parts, to which he replied, "Yes, six squirrels and a cat with a whip."

//Slighter Hijack//

I'm trying to find a site but about a decade or so back a startup was trying to get a external combustion car engine off the ground, under the same idea that the engine has far fewer moving parts and could (theoretically) run with varying degrees on efficiency on any flammable fluid at all.

ETA: I think it was these guys: https://cyclonepower.com/

 

[Dr. Keith]

Tesla warranties their batteries for 8 years or 150,000 miles, which ever comes first.

Chevy warranties the Volt's batteries for 10 years or 100,000 miles, which ever comes first.

Toyota warranties the Prius's batteries for either 10 year/150,000 miles OR 8 years/100,000 miles depending on which state you are in, going by emissions laws apparently.

So I'd say that 8-10 years, 100-150 thousand miles-ish is probably a fairly good upper limit to how much you can fully trust your batteries since that's as far as the big players are willing to put their money on the line.

//ETA: Rewording the last line//

By that logic all Hondas and Toyotas sold in the US can only be fully trusted to last 3 years or 36,000 miles. Does that make any sense?

 

[Dr. Keith]

A side drift: Way back in the day my dad was a great fan of the two-stroke three cylinder SAAB. They advertised that the engine (which is valveless) had only seven moving parts, to which he replied, "Yes, six squirrels and a cat with a whip."

Your dad was good people.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

That's a nice idea (and I don't mean that snarkily or disingenuously) but even if a car runs "forever" (for our purposes) people are just generally not going to want to keep a car forever. They are gonna want a new car for new features (which no cannot be updated forever indefinitely) or just for general "I'm tired of this car and want a new one."

I mean honestly how many people really drive a car until it is literally beyond all hope of being repaired back to a drivable state now?

Not many individuals will do this, but cars often have many owners. The person buying it new probably has different spending habits than someone buying it used 20 years and 200,000 miles later.

It's pretty common to see beaters still on the road, especially in states that don't have emission standards. High school parking lots are often covered in the blue-white fog of exhaust from old engines burning oil. I see less of this in Massachusetts, but mostly because emissions standards means it's not acceptable to allow such poorly running cars on the roads.

Sure, the rich person buying a Tesla today isn't going to run it until the frame rusts through, but the 5th owner in 20 years might.

 

[JoeMorgue]

By that logic all Hondas and Toyotas sold in the US can only be fully trusted to last 3 years or 36,000 miles. Does that make any sense?

No because this doesn't scale. Risk for systems of integrated parts and individual parts aren't the same thing.

It doesn't even scale with engines. An electric motor and a battery is piss-simple and pretty much is either going to work or not work.

An ICE? Ignition battery starter alternator fuel pump fuel injection spark plug firing cylinder etc all have to work in a specific order with specific timing.

It's why the Navy (until recently) never put a plane on a carrier with a single engine, even if the suggested engine was twice as "reliable" as the engines they already used. Because if one engine fails on a two engine plane you abort the mission and return to the carrier. If one engine fails on a one engine plane you fall into the ocean and die.

So let's say you have a engine with a single engine plane 1 in 5,000 flight failure rate and a double engine plane with a 2 in 5,000 flight engine rate. The single engine plane is doubly reliable right? Well... no only in the least meaningful, most technical sense of the term because that 1 single engine flight falls in the ocean and those 2 double engine flights just return to the carrier.

 

[Dr. Keith]

That's what has me wondering, what's to keep an EV from just running forever if you keep replacing worn out batteries every decade or so? Could be a real "ship of Theseus" situation, or at least for a longer period of time than a traditional ICE car.

The phrase "drive a car until the wheels fall off" is often used, but EV's may make that more possible. Keep driving it until the chassis is so worn and rusty that it no longer makes sense to keep swapping out failed components.

Or perhaps I'm oversimplifying...

Even ICE cars tend to be traded in for something less onerous than "complete engine/transmission failure". Sometimes it is just all the little systems not working quite right, or small repairs getting more frequent, or the seat is a bit broken down, or the smell from those margaritas that spilled in the back a few ears ago still comes up on hot days, or its just a bit dated.

Up north I expect rust is a much bigger factor than mechanical failure. At least the pistons have enough oil to keep from rusting. I have friend who still drives an old Pontiac that has a rusted out body from years up north. I won't ride in it, but he says the flex is hardly noticeable if you don't push it too hard.

 

[JoeMorgue]

If we do start seeing three, four, five hundred plus thousand mile car being the norm we probably won't make frames out of steel at that point.

 

[Dr. Keith]

No because this doesn't scale. Risk for systems of integrated parts and individual parts aren't the same thing.

If you can only trust an item to last as long as the manufacturer is willing to warrant it for, then it is the same thing. Or at least a damn similar thing.

Some ICE cars come with 10/100k warranties for their drivetrain. I still think most consumers can expect them to last much longer if not abused.

For most consumer products you expect it to last longer, you just expect to have to cover the costs to make sure it does last longer.

 

[MRC_Hans]

Indeed, I imagine the tests do try their best to simulate a normal driving pattern but of course it's a statistical average that doesn't favor outliers on both ends, even though they do try with country and city cycles.

If I lived in town, I'd jump at a full plugin electric, but out here, given the cheapness and convenience of a little ICE, it's a harder sell.

My current Hyundai accent now has a bit over 95 thousand miles on it, and has needed almost no maintenance in its life: a front brake job, a couple of cheap strut mounts, a set of tires, and that's about it. I have a long time average of about 40 mpg. Although I bought it used with about 30K on it, it was one of the cheapest cars made, even new. An electric would likely be approaching battery end of life, and with first cost as a factor, I doubt it could give better cost benefit ratio. That's likely to change in the near future, but so far, it's a hard sell.

Entirely agree. Four years ago I replaced my old Peugeot 307 station wagon (I'm in Europe), when it started running up too many repair bills. I bought a slightly smaller Peugeot 2008 mini SUV. I mainly drive short trips (live on a ten mile long island), and it gives me at least 60% more mileage for that. On the few longer cross country trips, it is not as advantageous, but still a good swap. A rough calculation says it earns half it's price in the same time as the old one lived, and so far (knock wood) repairs have been negligible, so I expect I already profited (the Peugeot 2xxx series are notorious for reliability).

Electric? Well, this island could be pioneering, but I think we currently have 2 (two) public charge stations. And I can't go across to Copenhagen where my family lives in an EV I can afford, so .... gasoline, so far.

Hans