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Cont: Electric Vehicles II

If I wasnt basically 'retired' these days, I'd save up and get the Hybrid Shark6 (up to 100km on its battery pack before the motor starts up) but the Atto3 is all EV, can tow up to 1200kg (which is all I need to tow any of my trailers, even the horse float I can legally tow empty) and about $20k cheaper....
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A 'proper' 4wd chassis ute like the Shark would be better (and its got a 2400kg tow capacity), but my wallet just wont stretch for that....
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If I wasnt basically 'retired' these days, I'd save up and get the Hybrid Shark6 (up to 100km on its battery pack before the motor starts up) but the Atto3 is all EV, can tow up to 1200kg (which is all I need to tow any of my trailers, even the horse float I can legally tow empty) and about $20k cheaper....
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A 'proper' 4wd chassis ute like the Shark would be better (and its got a 2400kg tow capacity), but my wallet just wont stretch for that....
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Don't get the BYD Dolphin for towing. It is not rated for that, i.e. no trailers allowed. However it does have the longest range of the BYD models: nearly 500kms.
 
Don't get the BYD Dolphin for towing. It is not rated for that, i.e. no trailers allowed. However it does have the longest range of the BYD models: nearly 500kms.
Dolphin isnt tow rated at all in Australia- BYD Atto 3 is legal up to 1200kg with the h/d towbar fitted (with a braked trailer- anything over 750kg in Australia requires a braked trailer, no exceptions)

I need tow capability of at least 1100kg as I run a trailer hire company here, and obviously trailer towing on any of my vehicles is a must (the 1100kg min is because thats what my heaviest trailer runs empty at ie the horse/cattle float....)
 
Chinese brands, led by MG, BYD and Chery, which also runs Jaecoo and Omoda, have pushed into the UK which, unlike the US or the EU, has not imposed tariffs on imports from the country.

Tesla, the US manufacturer led by Elon Musk, also produces cars in Shanghai for export to the UK, further adding to the market’s newfound dependence on Chinese imports.

BYD sales rose to 51,000, six times last year’s figure, while Chery’s brands increased by 13 times to 54,000. MG sold 85,000 – just below Germany’s Mercedes-Benz or South Korea’s Hyundai.

 
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And yet Tesla continued its decline in sales in the UK as well....

Its almost like having a right wing extremist and neo nazi sympathiser as your CEO when many (most?) of your customers are left leaning or centralist (by world standards lol- by US standards they probably all would be 'commie lefties lol) has a major effect on sales for some reason.....

Of course the Tesla fanbois will continue to deny reality and say 'its the bestest eva, and no decline in sales has ever happened' lol
 
And yet Tesla continued its decline in sales in the UK as well....

Its almost like having a right wing extremist and neo nazi sympathiser as your CEO when many (most?) of your customers are left leaning or centralist (by world standards lol- by US standards they probably all would be 'commie lefties lol) has a major effect on sales for some reason.....

Of course the Tesla fanbois will continue to deny reality and say 'its the bestest eva, and no decline in sales has ever happened' lol
Interesting spin.

Here are the top 10 EV registration figures for 2025:-
  1. Tesla Model Y – 24,298
  2. Tesla Model 3 – 21,188
  3. Audi Q4 e-tron – 14,433
  4. Audi Q6 e-tron – 13,148
  5. Ford Explorer – 12,237
  6. BMW i4 – 12,158
  7. Skoda Enyaq – 11,940
  8. Kia EV3 – 11,188
  9. Skoda Elroq – 10,713
  10. Volvo EX30 – 10,289
Car magazine says:-
Though Tesla has had a turbulent year as it faces greater competition and the controversy surrounding Elon Musk, its Model Y (24,298 registrations) and Model 3 (21,188) were still the two top performing electric cars in the UK last year, and by some margin. That said, Tesla registered 8,000 fewer Model Ys than it did in 2024, even despite it having a considerable update throughout the year.
A 25% drop sounds bad even when still leading by 68% over the nearest competitor's model, but the primary reason is (deliberately?) not spelled out. Model Y production was stopped at the start of 2025 while they changed the factories over for the updated model, losing several weeks of production and limiting supply. They didn't catch up until the end of 2025.

This production gap could be considered a faux pas on Tesla's part, but one has to wonder why they didn't do more to make the transition faster. One possibility is that in China (the world's largest car market) sales are always very low in January, making this the ideal time to change over. Another factor may be that Tesla themselves were concerned about the affect of bad publicity on Europeans, especially the Germans. Model Y's are made there, but Germany has never been a big market for Tesla, so they may have figured a temporary shortage wouldn't be a problem. Better to have a shortage than an oversupply, thought the haters will spin both (or neither) as being game over for Tesla.

OTOH had Tesla not done an extensive refresh on the Model Y sales may have slipped more. The EV market is getting more crowded with better vehicles which Tesla has to compete against, so they needed to bring out a new model which had more than just cosmetic improvements. The truth is, Tesla continues to dominate because they make excellent EVs. Now that FSD is making its way to Europe with the latest software that even critics are raving about, the future for Tesla is looking very good.

Right now Tesla is demonstrating FSD with ride-alongs in various European countries and are fully booked out until April. The interest is high for good reason, FSD will be a game changer for people who want lower stress and more free time, including the lucrative market of old folk who are becoming physically less capable of driving. Another big market could be visiters from other countries who aren't comfasrtable driving in unfamiliar areas with possibly different road rules, eg. people from right-hand drive countries like the UK. Tesla is currently the only car maker with general pupose autonomous driving that works practically everywhere. If they can keep that lead...
 
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For a recap on autonomous cars, I used the Google AI search summary, I checked the references and this all appears to be correct:

The Six SAE Levels of Automation
  • Level 0 (No Automation): Driver does everything (e.g., basic ABS, warnings).
  • Level 1 (Driver Assistance): System assists with steering or braking/acceleration (e.g., adaptive cruise control).
  • Level 2 (Partial Automation): System controls both steering and braking/acceleration in specific scenarios, but driver must constantly monitor (e.g., Tesla's Autopilot/FSD Beta, GM Super Cruise).
  • Level 3 (Conditional Automation): System handles driving in limited conditions (e.g., traffic jams), eyes-off allowed, but driver must be ready to intervene when prompted (e.g., Mercedes Drive Pilot).
  • Level 4 (High Automation): System handles all driving tasks in specific areas (Operational Design Domains - ODDs), no driver intervention needed within the ODD (e.g., Waymo & Cruise robotaxis in certain cities).
  • Level 5 (Full Automation): System drives everywhere, under all conditions, no human needed (theoretical goal).
 
The problem with Tesla and Musk is pretty much identical with Trump. Bull crap piled on top of bull crap piled on top of bull crap. I give Tesla credit for successfully bridging the gap for EVs. Making them able to compete with internal combustion vehicles. They bridged the famous chasm between boutique and exclusive to mass market. They did that with the Gigapress and building a charging network. You have to tip your cap to them for doing that.

But there is nothing unique about their self driving that multiple other companies can't do as well. By the time that FSD is truly perfected, they will find themselves in a crowded market and having to compete on price for something many customers might want but unwilling to pay much for.

They are a car company that had a huge lead in electric vehicles 10 years ago. But that lead is pretty much gone today. It still is better than its competition in the US. But that has more to do with the inability of Chinese manufacturers being able to sell their cars here.

I really don't get what justifies their almost insane P/E ratio.
 
Interesting spin.

Here are the top 10 EV registration figures for 2025:-
  1. Tesla Model Y – 24,298
  2. Tesla Model 3 – 21,188
  3. Audi Q4 e-tron – 14,433
  4. Audi Q6 e-tron – 13,148
  5. Ford Explorer – 12,237
  6. BMW i4 – 12,158
  7. Skoda Enyaq – 11,940
  8. Kia EV3 – 11,188
  9. Skoda Elroq – 10,713
  10. Volvo EX30 – 10,289
Car magazine says:-

A 25% drop sounds bad even when still leading by 68% over the nearest competitor's model, but the primary reason is (deliberately?) not spelled out. Model Y production was stopped at the start of 2025 while they changed the factories over for the updated model, losing several weeks of production and limiting supply. They didn't catch up until the end of 2025.

This production gap could be considered a faux pas on Tesla's part, but one has to wonder why they didn't do more to make the transition faster. One possibility is that in China (the world's largest car market) sales are always very low in January, making this the ideal time to change over. Another factor may be that Tesla themselves were concerned about the affect of bad publicity on Europeans, especially the Germans. Model Y's are made there, but Germany has never been a big market for Tesla, so they may have figured a temporary shortage wouldn't be a problem. Better to have a shortage than an oversupply, thought the haters will spin both (or neither) as being game over for Tesla.

OTOH had Tesla not done an extensive refresh on the Model Y sales may have slipped more. The EV market is getting more crowded with better vehicles which Tesla has to compete against, so they needed to bring out a new model which had more than just cosmetic improvements. The truth is, Tesla continues to dominate because they make excellent EVs. Now that FSD is making its way to Europe with the latest software that even critics are raving about, the future for Tesla is looking very good.

Right now Tesla is demonstrating FSD with ride-alongs in various European countries and are fully booked out until April. The interest is high for good reason, FSD will be a game changer for people who want lower stress and more free time, including the lucrative market of old folk who are becoming physically less capable of driving. Another big market could be visiters from other countries who aren't comfasrtable driving in unfamiliar areas with possibly different road rules, eg. people from right-hand drive countries like the UK. Tesla is currently the only car maker with general pupose autonomous driving that works practically everywhere. If they can keep that lead...

Another way to describe those figures is:

Tesla: 32%

Everyone else: 68%
 
Another way to describe those figures is:

Tesla: 32%

Everyone else: 68%
Tesla's lead in self driving is minuscule, if they have a lead at all. Waymo's self driving cabs are crushing it in comparison. And China reportedly has multiple companies that have created some excellent self driving apps.

Tesla still may have a lead in EV car sales, but it is unquestionable they are bleeding market share. Estimated 2025 profit for Tesla is about 5.08 billion dollars. GM's profit on the other hand is about 8 billion dollars. Yet Tesla's PE ratio is 20 times that of GM. Seriously? I don't see how they are going to create enough earnings that justify their stock price.
 
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But there is nothing unique about their self driving that multiple other companies can't do as well. By the time that FSD is truly perfected, they will find themselves in a crowded market and having to compete on price for something many customers might want but unwilling to pay much for.
Funny thing is that other technology leaders in the industry are saying the opposite. I'm inclined to trust their judgment over yours on this matter.

They are a car company that had a huge lead in electric vehicles 10 years ago. But that lead is pretty much gone today. It still is better than its competition in the US. But that has more to do with the inability of Chinese manufacturers being able to sell their cars here.
A car company, a charging network company, a grid-scale storage company - and soon to become a semi truck company, an autonomous taxi company and a robotics company. Those last three might not pan out, but if they do Tesla's net worth could easily reach 10 or 100 times what it is today.

I really don't get what justifies their almost insane P/E ratio.
It's not actually insane when you look at where they came from to where they are now compared to other EV makers. Tesla is profitable, most of the others aren't. BYD is only surviving due to support from the Chinese government. They sold more cars than Tesla last year, but how much did they make on them? Many other Chinese car companies are going out of business.

Other legacy car companies are subsidizing the loss with gas and hybrid sales. Ford just gave up on that with the F-150 Lightning because they couldn't afford to continue losing $30,000 on every vehicle sold (so much for trouncing the Cybertruck!). Toyota gave up on making their own EV platform and are now using a Chinese one. Other pure EV companies are also not doing well. Rivian continues to pile up debt. Waymo is still a money pit after 5 years of commercial operation, and just received another injection of $5.6 billion from Google last October. Several others have imploded or aren't going anywhere. Aptera is a joke.

Tesla stock is risky, but that applies to all tech companies who are pushing the boundaries of what's possible. Compared to other EV makers their potential is much greater too. Which other EV maker would you choose to invest in to make a potentially huge return? Not VW, not GM, not Ford, not Toyota or Stellantis. You would go for the company which is truly innovating and using their knowledge and resources to diversify into new fields that other car companies are only dabbling in or not touching.

To truly understand why Tesla stock is so valuable you have to know what they have. Their manufacturing and assmbly line system is way ahead of legacy car campanies. Their Berlin Factory takes 10 hours to make a car, compared to 30 hours at VW. Their Shanghai factory spits out a car every 30 seconds. In Texas the car drives itself to the holding area as soon as it rolls off the production line.

Because Tesla started making cars from the ground up their designs don't suffer from the legacy issues of other auto makers. They also have strong vertical integration which makes their cars work better because they control the design of more parts. Tesla uses its powerful AI not just for FSD but also in design and manufacturing. They can make changes on the production line in real time, rather than having a development cycle of months or years. They will use the same system for making robots too. Eventually the robots will make themselves!

Due to their emphasis on innovation Telsa is doing things that other car companies can't. People deride the Cybertruck for its looks, but its real value is in the 48V architecture, Ethernet comms and steer by wire. Other car companies aren't doing that stuff. They are sticking with slow CAN bus, 12V electrics that need heavier wiring (and a 12V lead-acid battery - the archilles heel of many EVs) and less flexible mechanical controls. We all know about Tesla's extensive use of 'giga' castings, but do you know about the other innovations in their vehicles? For example they developed a cooling system which is more advanced and uses way less parts than a 'normal' system. Their in-car software is better integrated and more reliable than most legacy cars makers too, largely because it was designed from the ground up to handle every aspect of the vehicle - not just talk to other modules from different manufacturers.

Calling Tesla 'just a car company' is selling them short. They are a tech manufacturing company which currently mostly makes EVs. Once they start pushing a million robots out the door every year investors will look at the current stock price and kick themselves for not buying as much as they could.
 
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Tesla's lead in self driving is minuscule, if they have a lead at all. Waymo's self driving cabs are crushing it in comparison.
You have no idea. Recently a bunch of Waymos got stuck in San Francisco and blocked traffic because they can't handle traffic lights being out. They have to call up a human to tell them what to do. So there was a city-wide power blackout and guess what? Yes, their manual assist system was overloaded. There have been numerous other incidents where Waymos sat in the middle of the road blocking traffic, even fighting with themelves or getting so stuck that they couldn't move. So much for 'crushing it'. These incidents just prove how far behind Waymo is.

Apart from that, Waymos can only drive in geofenced areas which have been mapped out for them, whereas Tesla's FSD drives everywhere. Combined with the regular need for human assistance which Waymo doesn't appear to be doing anything to reduce, and the high cost of the sensors etc., it's far more likely that Tesla will crush them than the other way around.
 
I'm sorry Roger. Your Kool~aid diet has muddled your critical thinking skills.

That PE ratio is insane. The only way to justify a high PE ratio is that future earnings will close the gap. When do actual real time earnings apply? Their present earnings reflect not only their EV business but their charging business. Their charging business while important to Tesla's present business model is essentially a glorified retail business delivering a mundane commodity product that can be delivered anywhere.

Tesla self driving software is not generating a significant income stream. And it is questionable that it ever will. While I wouldn't describe it exactly as vaporware. More like PR/BSWare. "Our business will be so much more profitable when the next feature of our amazing FSD 30.0 software is made available."

Wake me up when they produce as many vehicles as Ford or GM. Then they might be able to justify a PE ratio of 6. Not 300!
 
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