Neither do their patrons, not even the ones among them who claim to have infallible systems for predicting the outcomes of races and roulette wheel spins. So sometimes they think they're going to make a profit and they don't. The bookie does.
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psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
Which one of your claims is true then? Is winning consistently unachievable or does the bookie win consistently?Get real.
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
I guess the suggestion is that the punters cannot win consistently but that the bookies can, because they get to set the odds.
That said, AFAIK bookies set their odds so as to ensure that they make a return regardless of the result (although the ability to lay off bets on external markets has muddied the waters somewhat). I suppose that if someone had some way to determine when the odds offered by the bookies have a large inbuilt bias due to sentiment then they could consistently make a positive return.
I have long had the opinion that the odds on English and/or British teams are much shorter than they ought to be if judged objectively, because of the amount of money bet sentimentally on the home team. I have neither the skills nor the time to investigate this in depth but I suspect professional gamblers have and are exploiting the situation accordingly.
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
Neither can win "consistently" but that isn't necessary to make a profit.
For a given payout, you only need the odds slightly in your favour and in the long run, you will be the winner. In the short run your opponent can win against you so you need to be able to "weather the storm".
What does this have to do with bitcoin? Simply that given its price history, the odds of a price rise is greater than the odds of a price fall so if you buy and hold long enough then you should make a profit. Of course, past history is no guarantee of a future trend but the odds still favour appreciation in the long run ATM.
I think we have a different definition of winning.
In my case "winning" involves making a profit from an event on which there is a betting pool. My understanding is that competent bookmakers do that in the vast majority of cases.
No idea
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
Maybe it is just a different definition of "consistently".
At a "starting price" event a bookie can arrange payouts so that no matter what the result, they get a fixed rake of the total amount wagered. For random events against individuals however, it is never certain whether you win money or lose money. All you can go by is the long term average.
It's always a bad sign when somebody says that and doesn't read the explanation.
Or a different level of granularity. You're considering a single bookie/punter transaction as the level of granularity - not an unreasonable level of granularity. I was considering the "wagering event" instead, because that's how the bookies work - managing the risk for the total betting pool for a "wagering event".
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
Are you sure that "wagering event" is different to "starting price". Both presume that the bookies can set the odds after the bets have been placed.
For fixed odds betting, the bookie is no different to the casino and my original post said bookies and casinos.
To make consistent profits, the bookies set the terms of the bets, by adjusting odds and so on, which removes much of the randomness from the operation as far as they are concerned. A punter and a bookie are not like two individuals wagering on the outcome of a coin toss, with equal chances of winning or losing.
No, I've been sloppy with my terminology. I was using "wagering event" as a general term to refer to an event on which a betting pool is made such as:
- A horse race
- A football game
- The result of an election
- The gender of the royal baby
The odds are being continually adjusted but in my limited experience you take the odds offered at the time the bet is placed - rather than the starting price.
What do you mean by "fixed odds betting" ? Do you mean like fixed odds terminals ?
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Penultimate Amazing
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Horse racing uses a parimutuel system. A ticket holder doesn't know the odds received at the time he purchases the ticket...even if the purchase is made as late as possible. Odds on the board can change radically after the windows have closed.
psionl0
Skeptical about skeptics
You really are having a problem with the terminology.
There are two basic types of betting. One is where the odds are calculated after all of the bets have been placed. A bettor doesn't know what odds they will get until the event commences. This is the type of betting usually offered by SP bookies or the Totalisator Agency Board.
Fixed odds betting is where the promised odds can't be altered after the bet has been placed. This is like the way casinos operate. (The TAB also offers fixed odds bets nowadays). Of course if a bookie finds too many bets being wagered on a particular event then they can lower the odds on future bets but not existing bets. Casinos can't do this easily but they will change the rules if a game is not profitable enough for them.
Quite possibly. My confusion was caused by the fact that in the UK we have fixed odds betting terminals (fancy slot machines) which are in the news a lot these days. I didn't know whether you were referring specifically to these.
I think it's misleading to compare fixed odds betting at a bookmaker with a casino. It's expected that the bookmaker is going to change odds over time. Casinos can change their odds but for games like blackjack, craps or roulette that would be a pretty big deal. Changing the slot machine odds is far easier but AFAIK it's not done continually and in real time like bookmakers' odds.
It does but in the UK you can also place a bet with a bookmaker on course, in a betting shop or online and fix the odds at the point at which the bet is made. In the UK the Tote has a monopoly on parimutuel betting but I think that bookmakers can offer it to their punters by going through the Tote.
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Penultimate Amazing
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Right, should have specified US tracks. I'm assuming those UK fixed odds racing selections aren't exactly the best value in town?
Why would you assume that ?
The UK bookmakers' market is very competitive, moreso since everything is available online. If one chose to do so, one could easily compare odds online from the major bookmakers and select the best, there can be significant differences.
Likewise at the racecourse, in addition to the parimutuel "Tote", there may be a couple of dozen independent bookmakers setting their own fixed-odds with significant differences between them.
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Penultimate Amazing
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Because if the fixed odds offerings were of competitive value to the track prices, while providing players with the massive advantage of knowing the price of the horse before selection, why would any rational individual continue betting into the parimutuel pools?
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