Bitcoin - Part 2

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Samson said:
Heh.
Far be it from me to say it, but I think TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the price movements of RAT POISON Bitcoin is more on topic than the more interesting subject of betting protocols.
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Heh Heh.
If you could correctly predict which way the price would move more often than not then you wouldn't need to use adjectives like that. You would be too busy making money.

Face it. It's all just gambling.
 
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psionl0 said:
Heh Heh.
If you could correctly predict which way the price would move more often than not then you wouldn't need to use adjectives like that. You would be too busy making money.

Face it. It's all just gambling.
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These markets can be approached with a gambling mindset, but not necessarily. I know someone who survives on betting on horses. Is he gambling?
 
Samson said:
These markets can be approached with a gambling mindset, but not necessarily. I know someone who survives on betting on horses. Is he gambling?
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Absolutely he is gambling. He's been lucky, perhaps. I've known a lot of horse players -my father was a huge horse player- and sometimes they do really well and sometimes they do really horribly. I have never known one that made consistent profits solely from horse races year-over-year.

As for bitcoin -heck, even trying to day trade stocks and forex- the volatility makes speculation equivalent to gambling.
 
xjx388 said:
Absolutely he is gambling. He's been lucky, perhaps. I've known a lot of horse players -my father was a huge horse player- and sometimes they do really well and sometimes they do really horribly. I have never known one that made consistent profits solely from horse races year-over-year.

As for bitcoin -heck, even trying to day trade stocks and forex- the volatility makes speculation equivalent to gambling.
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Yes but let us believe him for a moment, he accumulates cash like Warren Buffet. Is that gambling still?
 
I like to think of the contrast between alcohol and cigarettes, the former can be used safely, but not the latter.
In the same way, there are gambles that can be statistically safe, and others that are statistically random.
Enjoy the former.

For example Wall street is set to decline monday. Statistically that is a very safe bet. Is that gambling?
Disclosure of interest, I went heavily short near the close today.
 
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Samson said:
Yes but let us believe him for a moment, he accumulates cash like Warren Buffet. Is that gambling still?
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I believe no one’s stories; I only believe facts. Right now we have an amorphous entity who supposedly makes money playing the ponies. In my experience, no one generates cash on the ponies like Buffet generates cash in investments. I need evidence, not stories.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Samson said:
These markets can be approached with a gambling mindset, but not necessarily. I know someone who survives on betting on horses. Is he gambling?
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If one wins more on a bet than the odds indicate then it is still gambling (playing games of chance) but there is an opportunity to generate an income by making lots of bets
(working). This is why the ATO doesn't tax "windfall gains" (eg winning the lottery) but if you regularly make money from gambling then they call it "taxable income".
 
trustbutverify said:
Because if the fixed odds offerings were of competitive value to the track prices, while providing players with the massive advantage of knowing the price of the horse before selection, why would any rational individual continue betting into the parimutuel pools?
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It can make sense. The odds available on a particular horse or dog might become prohibitive late in the day (just before 'the off') as bookies are actively trying to deter further bets on certain animals/outcomes, while bets placed early might have been at more generous odds. With parimutuel (or 'Tote' as it is/was known in the UK) your payout is always a defined cut of the total pool.
 
trustbutverify said:
Because if the fixed odds offerings were of competitive value to the track prices, while providing players with the massive advantage of knowing the price of the horse before selection, why would any rational individual continue betting into the parimutuel pools?
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Convenience ? Instead of trolling around the individual bookmakers trying to find the best price in a continually changing market (the 7/1 price you saw 2 minutes ago is now 6/1 which means that the 13/2 you saw 30 seconds ago back there is the best price) you walk up to the Tote window and place your bet.

At least with the fixed price betting you can (attempt to) assess whether your bet represents good value. With a parimutuel system you haven't got a clue.
 
The Don said:
Convenience ? Instead of trolling around the individual bookmakers trying to find the best price in a continually changing market (the 7/1 price you saw 2 minutes ago is now 6/1 which means that the 13/2 you saw 30 seconds ago back there is the best price) you walk up to the Tote window and place your bet.

At least with the fixed price betting you can (attempt to) assess whether your bet represents good value. With a parimutuel system you haven't got a clue.
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That first point is part of the fun of on-track betting (and to a lesser extent, online) for me...walking around trying to find the best odds on offer. Also placing a decent bet and making the bookie shift their odds down a little! Never used the Tote, except on-track betting at Romford and Walthamstow dogs because (I think) they only had parimutuel.

When I first started betting on horses, there was an option to choose either the offered price or the SP, presumably if you thought it would drift. Haven't seen that recently. Of course at the time you had the option of paying the 9% tax on the bet or on the winnings too. Long gone.

Doesn't feel as much fun to bet on Bitcoin rising.
 
gypsyjackson said:
That first point is part of the fun of on-track betting (and to a lesser extent, online) for me...walking around trying to find the best odds on offer. Also placing a decent bet and making the bookie shift their odds down a little! Never used the Tote, except on-track betting at Romford and Walthamstow dogs because (I think) they only had parimutuel.

When I first started betting on horses, there was an option to choose either the offered price or the SP, presumably if you thought it would drift. Haven't seen that recently. Of course at the time you had the option of paying the 9% tax on the bet or on the winnings too. Long gone.

Doesn't feel as much fun to bet on Bitcoin rising.
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Bitcoin is falling nicely at the moment.
One of life's little pleasures. :)
 
gypsyjackson said:
Doesn't feel as much fun to bet on Bitcoin rising.
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Considering that it can take years for the long term trend to kick in, if you have no skin in the game then it may be more interesting to watch paint dry.

Samson said:
Bitcoin is falling nicely at the moment.
One of life's little pleasures. :)
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You weren't saying this 2 days ago. :cool:
 
Samson said:
For example Wall street is set to decline monday. Statistically that is a very safe bet. Is that gambling?
Disclosure of interest, I went heavily short near the close today.
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For the sake of curiosity... could you more specifically define the bolded here?
 
Bitcoin Price Faces Bear Indicator Not Seen Since 2014
Following bitcoin's recent losses, a key long-term trend indicator is looking increasingly bearish.

Notably, the five-month moving average (MA) has rolled over in favor of the bears and looks set to cut the 10-month MA from above - a bearish crossover that hasn't been seen since June 2014.

If that occurs it could be a worrying signal for the long-term price outlook. Back then, following an identical crossover in June 2014, the cryptocurrency subsequently dropped by 70 percent
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The price may be dropping, but there's still money to be made - by some.

Cryptocurrency developers now pulling $1 million+ signing bonuses
According to Ripple chief cryptographer David Schwartz, speaking to The Wall Street Journal, one developer on his team recently received not one, but two, $1 million signing bonus offers. One was from a cryptocurrency startup he said, while the other was from a large established tech company looking for blockchain talent.

The hiring packages have "gotten insane", he said.
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Remind you of anything?

Bitcoin boom and bust a lot like the dot-com bubble — but on steroids, Morgan Stanley says
Bitcoin has long been compared to the dot-com bubble. Morgan Stanley says its recent moves are similar to the tech boom and bust, but on steroids.

Bitcoin’s recent moves almost mirror that of the Nasdaq Composite Index in the lead-up to and aftermath of 2000, but at 15 times the speed, Morgan Stanley said...

There have been three waves of weakness since Bitcoin peaked in December, with prices falling between 45 per cent and 50 per cent each time, before rebounding. The Nasdaq’s bear market from 2000 had five price declines, averaging a similar 44 per cent.
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A little late but I will back up the horse race story. When I was fourteen I went with a thirteen year old friend to the horse races. He was 6 foot 3 inches and with his acne and his poise he easily passed for thirty.

We got in under the fence and he would go the stable hands and ask them which horse to bet on just before each race. He would bet on a place and never lost. Slow money but he walked away with winnings each Saturday.

Many races are fixed. That is not gambling. That is insider knowledge.
 
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