Are people who own guns more likely to be shot?

[bruto]

Some long time ago I got interested in trying to chase down the statistical basis of a common trope that people who try to defend themselves with guns are more likely to be shot by criminals who take them. It sounded pretty reasonable, but it turned out to be pretty thoroughly bogus.

That said, I think it would be a surprise if gun ownership did not increase one's likelihood of being shot by someone somehow. Obviously it makes suicide by gun a relatively easier deed, and of course if you have a gun and draw on someone who also has a gun, the likelihood is higher that someone will end up being shot. And there is the likely social component as well, that many who carry guns are members of groups where gun violence is high. But if being in a group leads you to have a gun, then it would be erroneous to suggest that having a gun led you to be in the group.

I have a gun in a drawer somewhere, but living out here in the sticks and not expecting to use it for defense, I doubt very much that it increases my likelihood of being shot at all. If I am shot, it will almost certainly be by someone who has no way to know if I have a gun.

 

[theprestige]

I think there's a lot to parse here beyond the basic "how many are killed by gunshot" type data.

As Hans pointed out, lawful shootings should probably be treated differently than unlawful shootings. Or at the very least, that data would be interesting to look at.

And lawful ownership should be treated differently than unlawful ownership. Or at the very least, that data would be interesting to look at.

The last time it came up, I think the data showed that gun owners are more likely to get shot in part because unlawful gun owners are more likely to be in occupations where getting shot is an occupational hazard.

Yes, obviously, having a gun in your home even legally increases your chances of getting shot. But legal gun owners aren't actually the biggest source of non-LEO related shootings IIRC.

 

[casebro]

Since most homes in America have guns, "having a gun in the house" can also be linked to suicides. Likewise success at weight loss, lack of success at weight loss, heart attack, sagging arm pits, poor tire mileage, and bad hair days.

"Most bad hair days happen to people that have guns in their homes".
"Most homicides happen to people that have guns in their homes".

 

[Darat]

Since most homes in America have guns, "having a gun in the house" can also be linked to suicides. Likewise success at weight loss, lack of success at weight loss, heart attack, sagging arm pits, poor tire mileage, and bad hair days.

"Most bad hair days happen to people that have guns in their homes".
"Most homicides happen to people that have guns in their homes".

I thought it was around one third of homes had a gun?

 

[bruto]

I thought it was around one third of homes had a gun?

I also would question that number, but it undoubtedly also depends on where you are. I think it would be a mistake to assume the third in some places at least, especially since the risk of error is pretty dire.

I think, for example, that if you took up home invasion as a vocation, you would do well not to assume that only 1/3 of homes in Alaska or Vermont have a gun.

 

[arthwollipot]

Many years ago I had a dream in which I was a noncombat participant in a battle or wargame of some kind. Someone offered me a gun to protect myself, but I declined, reasoning that if I were seen with a gun, it would make me a target.

Don't know what relevance it has, but that dream has stuck with me for decades.

 

[Lplus]

Many years ago I had a dream in which I was a noncombat participant in a battle or wargame of some kind. Someone offered me a gun to protect myself, but I declined, reasoning that if I were seen with a gun, it would make me a target.

Don't know what relevance it has, but that dream has stuck with me for decades.

It rather depended on your non combat status being recognised and respected by the combat players. If you could depend on that, your refusal makes perfect sense.

The real world is a bit more complicated.

 

[Darat]

I also would question that number, but it undoubtedly also depends on where you are. I think it would be a mistake to assume the third in some places at least, especially since the risk of error is pretty dire.

I think, for example, that if you took up home invasion as a vocation, you would do well not to assume that only 1/3 of homes in Alaska or Vermont have a gun.

Oh I know it’s not uniform but there is a huge difference between around a 1/3 of homes having one gun or more and “most homes”.

Looking at a few references it does seem to be that my recollection was correct estimates seem to all be around the 1/3 of homes having a gun.

 

[The Don]

Oh I know it’s not uniform but there is a huge difference between around a 1/3 of homes having one gun or more and “most homes”.

Looking at a few references it does seem to be that my recollection was correct estimates seem to all be around the 1/3 of homes having a gun.

Not quite.

Around 30% of adults in the US say that they personally own a gun.

Around 41% of adults live in a household where someone has a gun

Around 48% grew up in a home where there are guns

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/10/22/facts-about-guns-in-united-states/

Looking at my 30 or so, relatively close, US relatives, I'd estimate that there are about 2 or 3 guns per adult but that only about a quarter of adults own a gun - it's just that those who do, own a bunch of them.

 

[casebro]

Not quite.

Around 30% of adults in the US say that they personally own a gun.

Around 41% of adults live in a household where someone has a gun

Around 48% grew up in a home where there are guns

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/10/22/facts-about-guns-in-united-states/

Looking at my 30 or so, relatively close, US relatives, I'd estimate that there are about 2 or 3 guns per adult but that only about a quarter of adults own a gun - it's just that those who do, own a bunch of them.

And the fact that in the polls, if people own unregistered guns, they are not going to admit it, especially if it was a parole violation. And others won't admit it either.

My "most" needs only 51% to suit you pedants. My count on my street does that. And there is only 4 of the 32 that are so conservative that we fly the American flag. It's a very diverse street, we have gays, lesbians, black Americans and immigrants from Africa, browns, Asians, you should see the pot lucks. And I know at least half have guns. ( Aside: mental arithmetic, only 8 of 32 are cis-white households. I don't see the neccessity for riots)

Another neighbor stopped under a shade tree to rest the toddler he was with. He must have been in his way to a ceremony, his red bandana was starched and pressed. And he had three tears tattooed on his cheek. I think we can put him in the "has a gun in his home" column.

 

[Darat]

Not quite.

Around 30% of adults in the US say that they personally own a gun.

Around 41% of adults live in a household where someone has a gun

Around 48% grew up in a home where there are guns

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/10/22/facts-about-guns-in-united-states/

Looking at my 30 or so, relatively close, US relatives, I'd estimate that there are about 2 or 3 guns per adult but that only about a quarter of adults own a gun - it's just that those who do, own a bunch of them.

https://www.statista.com/statistics...eholds-in-the-united-states-owning-a-firearm/

 

[Darat]

And the fact that in the polls, if people own unregistered guns, they are not going to admit it, especially if it was a parole violation. And others won't admit it either.

My "most" needs only 51% to suit you pedants. My count on my street does that. And there is only 4 of the 32 that are so conservative that we fly the American flag. It's a very diverse street, we have gays, lesbians, black Americans and immigrants from Africa, browns, Asians, you should see the pot lucks. And I know at least half have guns. ( Aside: mental arithmetic, only 8 of 32 are cis-white households. I don't see the neccessity for riots)

Another neighbor stopped under a shade tree to rest the toddler he was with. He must have been in his way to a ceremony, his red bandana was starched and pressed. And he had three tears tattooed on his cheek. I think we can put him in the "has a gun in his home" column.

Nope it would need to be something like 90% for me.

 

[casebro]

Nope it would need to be something like 90% for me.

Next. shall we discus what is is?

 

[p0lka]

Many years ago I had a dream in which I was a noncombat participant in a battle or wargame of some kind. Someone offered me a gun to protect myself, but I declined, reasoning that if I were seen with a gun, it would make me a target.

Don't know what relevance it has, but that dream has stuck with me for decades.

That makes me wonder whether swimmers are more likely to drown than non swimmers, or whether mountain climbers are more likely to fall from mountains than non-mountain climbers, or whether people who train in martial arts are more likely to be hurt in a fight than people who haven't trained in martial arts etc.

 

[arthwollipot]

It rather depended on your non combat status being recognised and respected by the combat players. If you could depend on that, your refusal makes perfect sense.

The real world is a bit more complicated.

Yeah this is true, but it was a dream, so...

That makes me wonder whether swimmers are more likely to drown than non swimmers, or whether mountain climbers are more likely to fall from mountains than non-mountain climbers, or whether people who train in martial arts are more likely to be hurt in a fight than people who haven't trained in martial arts etc.

I would say that people who don't swim regularly are definitely more likely to drown than people who do, people who aren't experienced mountain climbers are definitely more likely to fall off a mountain than people who are, and (I have personal experience with this one) people who don't train in martial arts are definitely more likely to be hurt in a fight than people who do.

 

[casebro]

Yeah this is true, but it was a dream, so...

I would say that people who don't swim regularly are definitely more likely to drown than people who do, people who aren't experienced mountain climbers are definitely more likely to fall off a mountain than people who are, and (I have personal experience with this one) people who don't train in martial arts are definitely more likely to be hurt in a fight than people who do.

And similarly, it's the ignorant, untrained gun owner that causes accidental deaths. But that is a minuscule percentage.

But don't blame the tool, it can be replaced. Blame the violent inner city socio-economic condition. Don't blame the gun in the house, blame the conditions that warrant needing a gun in the house.

 

[Myriad]

That makes me wonder whether swimmers are more likely to drown than non swimmers, or whether mountain climbers are more likely to fall from mountains than non-mountain climbers, or whether people who train in martial arts are more likely to be hurt in a fight than people who haven't trained in martial arts etc.

It's pretty likely there's an effect of that nature, a la "people who wear hard hats are more likely to be injured in industrial accidents," going on in the gun statistics.

 

[Lplus]

It's pretty likely there's an effect of that nature, a la "people who wear hard hats are more likely to be injured in industrial accidents," going on in the gun statistics.

And people who wear seatbelts are more likely to be in a car crash?

 

[p0lka]

And people who wear seatbelts are more likely to be in a car crash?

People who wear seatbelts are definitely more likely to be hurt in a car crash.

 

[Darat]

Next. shall we discus what is is?

There is a huge difference between your claim and the facts. Has it made you revise your opinion?