Here's how I go about problem solving and why the sinking of the MV Estonia is a problem to be solved, and not a 'conspiracy theory'.
Assumptions: The persons lobbying for a reinvestigation of the sinking are not 'conspiracy theorists', they are reputable, highly-educated and persons well-informed of the facts. Rabe, Bemis, Evertsson, and Kurm have all visited the wreck in person. Andi Meister, as former Transport Minister for Estonia and former JAIC head, is another person well-informed of the facts. The assumption is: these persons are of good character and high repute and have gone to some great lengths to point out flaws in the JAIC report.
The Issues:
- The hole in the hull appears to have been known of as of the time of the JAIC investigation. Meister points out an incursion into the vessel of up to five metres of muddy sludge; it's not just the windows of the bridge that appeared broken to the divers but that the infrastructure had been breached. Later, in year 2000, on Eagle One, F Gregg Bemis and Jutta Rabe relate they were surprised by the sheer number of bodies lying on the seabed, as though they had fallen through the hull. Again, neither of these matters were mentioned in the report.
- The repot omits - according to the aforesaid - identification of the bodies on the bridge, when the bridge crew could be identifiable by their crew uniform. Divers reported seeing a guy in a brown jacket, or covered in mud, across the door of the bridge; the Captain reportedly with clear bullet wounds to the forehead, it is claimed and some guy covered with a flag from the flagbox (and tattoo on hand, meaning he can't be Captain Andresson).. Given the disaster, it is natural to suppose the JAIC would at least identify what was observable on the bridge, given the Captain of the ship in any disaster is a key figure for investigation as the captain is the person in charge and in control, just as a driver would be a person of interest in a car accident.
- The fact that so many persons are absolutely adamant seven of the senior crew and bar/entertainment staff were notified as being survivors and then allegedly removed from the survivor list, together with Swedish government minister, Stenmark, declaring second Captain, Pith, as having been interviewed, the JAIC needs to provide an explanation as to how these notions came about.
Outcome:
- Owing to the efforts of, most recently, Henrik Evertsson, and earlier, by Rabe, Braidwood and Bemis - a survey carried out by a Swedish newspaper at the time showed that 73% of the Swedish public were in favour of their expedition to the site on Eagle One in August 2000 - due to strong pressure especially from the Estonian parliamentary 'working party' headed by justice minister, Margus Kurm, it was decided to carry out a fresh survey of the wreck. This commenced circa 2021.
- Margus Kurm carried out a rival expedition to that of Rene Arikas, for the new JAIC, which shows the lack of trust and confidence in the official investigations.
- The new investigation spokesperson has announced a preliminary result, that the holes found in the hull were likely due to a nearby rocky outcrop and that ten thousand different images had been undertaken of the wreck from all sides, with new technology. The report is still under progress, due to be released by the year end.
- In the interim, Evertsson and Andersson, the filmographer, have been charged and convicted under the Estonia Treaty (gravesite peace). Rabe is under a Swedish arrest warrant. Nobody has heard any more from Margus Kurm about his rival expedition.
- The new investigators say they have identified two further vessels that were in the region the night of the disaster.
Conclusion: There has been a genuine reason for the reinvestigation, designed to answer the questions raised by the various actors, who cannot be classed as 'conspiracy theorists'. We won't get answers as to why there was a mix up over the senior Estonian crew, or the bodies on the bridge. It remains to be seen whether the upcoming report satisfactorily answers the question posed by persons lobbying on behalf of public disquiet. Already one of the directors of the Evertsson production, '
This Changes Everything' Lars Borgnås has tried to submit a 30-page 'confidential document', which the Swedish investigators say is a 'fake'. This, too, is real, and not a product of a conspiracy theorist's imagination. Again, this is a reputable journalist (who may or may not be misguided). Then there will be the scrutiny of the final report by various recognised experts. Swedish prosecutors have already said there will be no further action. So certainly not a conspiracy theory but a valid and well-justified reinvestigation. The report will need to explain the timeline of the 'rocky outcrop' damage and whether it explains all or just some of the concerns raised by legitimate parties.