Why there are likely less than a million actual Trump supporters in the US.

[MrFliop]

63 million voted for Trump in 2016 and 74 million did in 2020. Wow, all of them must be Trump supporters right? Yeah, no. General elections are really bad indicators of public opinion. I wouldn’t be surprised if over 90% of those votes were from people who would have voted for the Republican nominee regardless of who it was. There are currently 35 million registered with the Republican Party, plus nearly double that number who aren’t registered but still vote Republican.

A clearer picture emerges when we look at the Republican primaries of 2016, where(before Trump became the presumptive nominee) over 10 million voters chose him over his GOP opponents. Yet of those 10 million, most likely weren’t Trump supporters either.

We have to also consider the snowball effect. Many voters in the later primaries probably chose him because they saw him as the most electable candidate due to his string of victories in the early primary contests, and thus jumped on the bandwagon. It’s worth noting that before late April 2016, Trump never won a majority in any contest, he just won a plurality of the votes.

However, even with that in mind, it’s still wrong to consider those who voted for him in the early primaries as “Trump Supporters”. How do we know they didn’t just choose him because he was the best option of the remaining viable candidates (Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich) to choose from once primary season officially began in February 2016?

Trump’s only voter strongholds during the early primaries was two regions of the US: the Northeast and the South(or rather the rural areas of the South if you wanna be specific). Let’s break them down, his Northeast voters likely chose him simply because he WAS from there, a native New Yorker. The same thing happened to Mitt Romney in the 2012 primaries. He won all the northeastern states simply because he was governor of Massachusetts 6 years prior. That’s just how primary voters are, they vote in people who are like them personally, including where they live.

As for the rural South, beating Kasich and Rubio would’ve been too easy. And to beat the only one who was a threat in that region, Trump needed to come off as slightly more to the right than Ted Cruz. For example: Ted Cruz says ban Muslim refugees, Trump says ban all Muslims. And with GOP primary contests in the South being nothing more than a “who can go furthest to the right” competition, it’s no wonder Trump won those states with a plurality of votes.

So…. when going through all those factors: snowball effect, doing best in home region, pivoting farther to the right than Cruz….. Out of the 10 million who chose Donald Trump in the 2016 primaries, it’s safe to say about 1/10 or 1 million people are actually die hard Trump supporters and truly believe in what he stands for.

 

[acbytesla]

63 million voted for Trump in 2016 and 74 million did in 2020. Wow, all of them must be Trump supporters right? Yeah, no. General elections are really bad indicators of public opinion. I wouldn’t be surprised if over 90% of those votes were from people who would have voted for the Republican nominee regardless of who it was. There are currently 35 million registered with the Republican Party, plus nearly double that number who aren’t registered but still vote Republican.

A clearer picture emerges when we look at the Republican primaries of 2016, where(before Trump became the presumptive nominee) over 10 million voters chose him over his GOP opponents. Yet of those 10 million, most likely weren’t Trump supporters either.

We have to also consider the snowball effect. Many voters in the later primaries probably chose him because they saw him as the most electable candidate due to his string of victories in the early primary contests, and thus jumped on the bandwagon. It’s worth noting that before late April 2016, Trump never won a majority in any contest, he just won a plurality of the votes.

However, even with that in mind, it’s still wrong to consider those who voted for him in the early primaries as “Trump Supporters”. How do we know they didn’t just choose him because he was the best option of the remaining viable candidates (Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich) to choose from once primary season officially began in February 2016?

Trump’s only voter strongholds during the early primaries was two regions of the US: the Northeast and the South(or rather the rural areas of the South if you wanna be specific). Let’s break them down, his Northeast voters likely chose him simply because he WAS from there, a native New Yorker. The same thing happened to Mitt Romney in the 2012 primaries. He won all the northeastern states simply because he was governor of Massachusetts 6 years prior. That’s just how primary voters are, they vote in people who are like them personally, including where they live.

As for the rural South, beating Kasich and Rubio would’ve been too easy. And to beat the only one who was a threat in that region, Trump needed to come off as slightly more to the right than Ted Cruz. For example: Ted Cruz says ban Muslim refugees, Trump says ban all Muslims. And with GOP primary contests in the South being nothing more than a “who can go furthest to the right” competition, it’s no wonder Trump won those states with a plurality of votes.

So…. when going through all those factors: snowball effect, doing best in home region, pivoting farther to the right than Cruz….. Out of the 10 million who chose Donald Trump in the 2016 primaries, it’s safe to say about 1/10 or 1 million people are actually die hard Trump supporters and truly believe in what he stands for.

I'm not sure I buy this. I travel a lot. Mostly in the West. And almost all of it in rural areas. And support for him where I travel is very visible. Although much less visible than it was in 2016 and 2020.

 

[MrFliop]

I'm not sure I buy this. I travel a lot. Mostly in the West. And almost all of it in rural areas. And support for him where I travel is very visible. Although much less visible than it was in 2016 and 2020.

Those are likely just conservatives supporting whoever the incumbent leader of their party is. I am almost certain that once Trump is gone(loses election or finishes 2nd term) that these people will move on and rally behind the next candidate who supports their cause.

 

[acbytesla]

Those are likely just conservatives supporting whoever the incumbent leader of their party is. I am almost certain that once Trump is gone(loses election or finishes 2nd term) that these people will move on and rally behind the next candidate who supports their cause.

Maybe. But they fly Trump flags and wear the red caps. I see almost no visible Biden support.

But I do believe I see a lot less of these rednecks wearing Trump gear than in previous years.

 

[sir drinks-a-lot]

Those are likely just conservatives supporting whoever the incumbent leader of their party is. I am almost certain that once Trump is gone(loses election or finishes 2nd term) that these people will move on and rally behind the next candidate who supports their cause.

You just refuted your own argument:

Conservatives support whoever the incumbent leader of their party is.
Trump is the incumbent leader of their party.
Therefore, conservatives support Trump (by modus ponens).

When we say someone supports Donald Trump, we don't mean that they'll support him forever or that they wouldn't also support the next Republican candidate, but only that they support him in the current election.

The argument you presented in the OP could also be applied to Biden supporters. Of course people who support Biden will move on and rally behind the next candidate who supports their cause. I suspect we'll see very few Biden supporters in the 2040 Presidential election.

 

[Brainster]

How many actual Biden supporters are there, once we eliminate everybody who's just voting for him because he is the incumbent leader of the liberal party? Trump actually has the more rabid fanbase by a wide margin.

Wishful thinking is not skepticism.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

It's a 2 Party System, so most voters vote AGAINST one Party, not for one

Doesn't matter how much you support someone as long as you vote them, which has been the unofficial Democrat Motto since Obama for Whites, and much longer than that for Blacks.

But Trump clearly has a lot of support, or he wouldn't be able to grift so much m

 

[acbytesla]

How many actual Biden supporters are there, once we eliminate everybody who's just voting for him because he is the incumbent leader of the liberal party? Trump actually has the more rabid fanbase by a wide margin.

Wishful thinking is not skepticism.

Absolutely. But it's not liberal vs conservative.

It's the difference between being driven by policy and competence. As opposed to personality and tribalism.

 

[Orphia Nay]

It seems to depend on how you define “Trump supporter”.

If it’s a MAGAT, you might be right about the million figure.

If it’s a Never-Democrat, you’re a long way off.

And there are other ways to define it.

 

[Brainster]

Absolutely. But it's not liberal vs conservative.

It's the difference between being driven by policy and competence. As opposed to personality and tribalism.

I was just putting it in the same frame as the OP in the followup post--Trump is the leader of the conservative party as Biden is the leader of the liberal party, even though lots of conservatives are not fans of Trump and many liberals would prefer somebody other than Biden.

As for the bit about policy and competence versus personality and tribalism, which do you think is more likely to be greeted by rabid and fierce support? Me too. Trump (unfortunately) has a whole lot more real fanboys than Biden. He also has a LOT more people who really hate him, so there's that.

 

[Lplus]

I was just putting it in the same frame as the OP in the followup post--Trump is the leader of the conservative party as Biden is the leader of the liberal party, even though lots of conservatives are not fans of Trump and many liberals would prefer somebody other than Biden.

As for the bit about policy and competence versus personality and tribalism, which do you think is more likely to be greeted by rabid and fierce support? Me too. Trump (unfortunately) has a whole lot more real fanboys than Biden. He also has a LOT more people who really hate him, so there's that.

There's always two tribes, it's just one tribe has an overinflated opinion of its competence and policies.

 

[Gord_in_Toronto]

I'm not sure how this fits in or even what it means but:
RAW FOOTAGE of Trump Supporters WALKING OUT on Him



I'm reminded of the expression, "Voting with your feet."

 

[ponderingturtle]

63 million voted for Trump in 2016 and 74 million did in 2020. Wow, all of them must be Trump supporters right?

Really weird definition that giving someone your support does not make you a supporter.

 

[Thermal]

At a very visceral level, I don't buy the OP premise across the board. No doubt there are many conservatives/Republicans who just vote along party lines and support whoever will generally further their interests. But to reduce supporters to a million is not realistic. Trump touched a nerve among the Stupids, and being an outed bigot became socially acceptable.

It's not Trump per se that they support, but everything he does and says and stands for. Sure, if a Trump v2 came along that said essentially the same tings but without staring down nearly 100 felony charges and involvement in insurrection etc, they would probably support him too. But what difference does it make? Anyone who could support one of the dumbest deadbeat bigots to open his mouth publicly would support the next lobotomized Hitler too. Trump is not the problem. People that willingly identify with his anti-American positions are the problem, and there's a hell of a lot more than a million running around.

 

[kookbreaker]

I'm not sure how this fits in or even what it means but:
RAW FOOTAGE of Trump Supporters WALKING OUT on Him



I'm reminded of the expression, "Voting with your feet."

Someone did some interviews, and it seems that people leave Trump rallies because he isn’t talking about what they want to hear. Usually they just want him to attack somebody.

 

[Emily's Cat]

I'm not sure I buy this. I travel a lot. Mostly in the West. And almost all of it in rural areas. And support for him where I travel is very visible. Although much less visible than it was in 2016 and 2020.

I see support for Trump and for Biden visible all over the place. On the other hand, when I interact with people, the vast majority strongly dislike both of them. Visible support doesn't indicate prevalent support. Much like the loudest voices on the internet doesn't suggest widespread adoption of their views in the real world.

I only know a very few people who actually *like* Trump and think they're a good option. My impression is that nearly everyone ends up in a camp of "Trump but only because they aren't Biden/Democrat" or "Biden because they're not Trump/Republican"

I would think this phenomenon was relatively clear. Just go look through the topics in Politics here. The vast majority of us on ISF are left-leaning, with a sizeable cohort of progressives. But you very rarely see threads singing the praises of what Democrats (or other liberal politicians in other countries) have done, and what they're accomplishing. Rather, you see threads that are focused on trashing "the other guy".

 

[JoeMorgue]

What a bunch of utter tosh nonsense.

"63 million vote for him, but only 12 actually support him" is the dumbest distinction without difference you can imagine if you tried.

 

[ponderingturtle]

I see support for Trump and for Biden visible all over the place. On the other hand, when I interact with people, the vast majority strongly dislike both of them. Visible support doesn't indicate prevalent support. Much like the loudest voices on the internet doesn't suggest widespread adoption of their views in the real world.

I only know a very few people who actually *like* Trump and think they're a good option. My impression is that nearly everyone ends up in a camp of "Trump but only because they aren't Biden/Democrat" or "Biden because they're not Trump/Republican"

Then how did he win the primary? He was the prefered choice of the majority of republicans.

 

[Emily's Cat]

I was just putting it in the same frame as the OP in the followup post--Trump is the leader of the conservative party as Biden is the leader of the liberal party, even though lots of conservatives are not fans of Trump and many liberals would prefer somebody other than Biden.

Aye, there's the rub.

Most actual citizens aren't partisans. When you look at how people register, you end up with Republicans, Democrats, and Independents being pretty equal (with a lot of variation by state). When you ask for affiliation, however, you end up with Independents being about 45% of all citizens, with Democrats having around 30% and Republicans having around 25%.

That shouldn't be surprising though, given that many states have closed primaries, and you're only allowed to vote if you're registered for a party.

Personally, I think this is a serious problem with US politics. It ends up giving massive power to the parties as entities, and takes that choice away from the citizens. We, as citizens, almost never get to vote for who we actually want. Our choices end up being artificially limited by the parties, to who they are going to allow us to have on the ballot. This also ends up creating a situation where our elected politicians are acting in accordance with the interest of their parties, not their constituents.

Right now, in the US, we absolutely do NOT have a government for the people, by they people. We have a government that is fighting with itself for the parties, by the parties... and **** what the people want.

 

[Emily's Cat]

What a bunch of utter tosh nonsense.

"63 million vote for him, but only 12 actually support him" is the dumbest distinction without difference you can imagine if you tried.

I dunno, I don't think it's nonsense. I don't know about the specific numbers involved, but I don't think the premise is flawed.

It's South Park. We are stuck having to vote for either a **** sandwich or a giant douche. The overwhelming majority of people aren't voting *for* who they want most, they're voting *against* who they want least.

Failure to acknowledge this ends up giving the false perception that half the country actually likes **** sandwiches, and the other have really loves giant douches. I don't think that's a reasonable inference at all.