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What are the odds...

geggy

Muse
geggy
Joined
Apr 19, 2006
Messages
598
...of osama bin laden and the 19 hijackers defeating the US's defense system, including the government insiders, military departments and intelligence and security agencies...?

To name a few...
NSA
FBI
DIA
CIA
NIC
DOD
NORAD
USAF
NEADS
FAA
INS
DEA
CT
DS

I'd say 100 million to 1.
 
geggy said:
...of osama bin laden and the 19 hijackers defeating the US's defense system, including the government insiders, military departments and intelligence and security agencies...?

To name a few...
NSA
FBI
DIA
CIA
NIC
DOD
NORAD
USAF
NEADS
FAA
INS
DEA
CT
DS

I'd say 100 million to 1.
Click to expand...
Being new here I don't know quite what to make of this but I'm down with those odds - 100 million (they got through) to 1 (government did it)
 
geggy said:
...of osama bin laden and the 19 hijackers defeating the US's defense system, including the government insiders, military departments and intelligence and security agencies...?

To name a few...
NSA
FBI
DIA
CIA
NIC
DOD
NORAD
USAF
NEADS
FAA
INS
DEA
CT
DS

I'd say 100 million to 1.
Click to expand...

Honestly, what do you think the odds are that the 911truth organization is itself a conspiracy orchestrated by elites?
 
Not only what Alareth said, but also note that just because the odds are high, it doesn't prove or establish impossibility.
 
That doesn't make any sense at all. That's like asking how a bank robber defeated:
The FBI
Municipal police dept.
County police dept.
State police dept.
The bank's employees.
The bank's private security company.

Of course, you don't have to "defeat" all those agencies to walk in a bank branch and say you have a gun, please fill this bag w/ money.
 
WildCat said:
That doesn't make any sense at all. That's like asking how a bank robber defeated:
The FBI
Municipal police dept.
County police dept.
State police dept.
The bank's employees.
The bank's private security company.

Of course, you don't have to "defeat" all those agencies to walk in a bank branch and say you have a gun, please fill this bag w/ money.
Click to expand...

Exactly, every crime defeats an army of crime fighters. Why can't all of Israel stop a few suicide bombers? CTers must think the government is omnipotent.
 
All I'm asking you to do is to think like a terrorist. Pretend you're osama and the major part of planning an attack such as 9/11, especially 9/11, is to map out strategies in bypassing defense and security, let alone the US spending an average of 300 million a year on it, what odds would you think you have in succeeding?
 
Said before by wiser men than me:

The security agencies have to be right every time. The terrorists only have to be right ones.
 
geggy- You calculated 100 million to one.

Can you show how you arrived at this figure?
 
geggy said:
All I'm asking you to do is to think like a terrorist. Pretend you're osama and the major part of planning an attack such as 9/11, especially 9/11, is to map out strategies in bypassing defense and security, let alone the US spending an average of 300 million a year on it, what odds would you think you have in succeeding?
Click to expand...

Think like a terrorist. You have an infinite advantage. The Americans have to try to protect every crack and opening.

You just have to find one.

So, the airliners. America hadn't had a hijacking in 20 years. The Air Marshall program had been gutted (only a couple dozen agents in the whole program in 2001). Security was run by minimum wage kids.

You experiment, do some dry runs. See what kind of weapon you can sneak on board. Read up on what the policy is when people try to take over a plane (hint: it's to do whatever they want and not to resist in any way).


If they had looked into it and the hijacking thing seemed to hard, fine. Let's look into driving a truck full of explosives into the Sears Tower. Are there barricades around the building? Is it reinforced at the base? An internet search will tell you.

And if that seems to hard, you just find something else. You keep looking for wherever security is lax. What's security like at the resevoirs? Could the water be poisoned?

And on and on. You just poke and prod until you find where they're weak. And then you strike. You have forever to plan.
 
DarkMagician said:
MY SPILLMING BEE WON ME A SCHLARSHIP!
Click to expand...

Yeah, thank you DarkMagician. As you can read under my avatar, I'm from the Netherlands, from which you could conclude English is not my native language. Got any remarks that matter? Jeez...
 
alexg said:
Exactly, every crime defeats an army of crime fighters. Why can't all of Israel stop a few suicide bombers? CTers must think the government is omnipotent.
Click to expand...

This is part of Gumboot's view of why CT is so popular with certain elements. They do want to believe the US is omnipotent, and that they can sleep safely. The only way to foster this belief is to say that no outsiders could've possibly done this, because we're too powerful and smart. Thus, it HAD TO BE an inside job. Only our own military and resources are strong enough to beat our own military and resources, after all. Irresistible force and immovable object, and all that.
 
Bell said:
Yeah, thank you DarkMagician. As you can read under my avatar, I'm from the Netherlands, from which you could conclude English is not my native language. Got any remarks that matter? Jeez...
Click to expand...

Okay, I feel like an ass now. Sorry 'bout that. I was just trying to be funny. I meant no malice with that post.
 
Well lets look at it another way.

What are the odds of teams of demolition experts planting explosives inside not one, not two but three buildings before 911 and not being noticed?
Then add the odds of a plane flying at high speed into a tower and missing pre planted explosives.
Then add the odds of a second plane doing it.
Then add the odds of both sets of pre planted explosives still being in working order, all primers and detonators left unaffected.
Then add the odds of them surviving the fires.
Then add the odds of them both working perfectly.
Then add the odds of WTC7 still standing after a 500,000 tons structure collapsed beside it.
Then add the odds of the pre planted explosives inside WTC 7 not being damaged.
Then add the odds of them surviving fires for some six hours
Then add the odds of the firemen not noticing them
Then add the odds of them working perfectly.
Then add the odds of somebody researching all the passengers onboard flight 93 ensuring perfect fake calls were made to their relatives
Then add the odds of somebody shooting down Flight 93 and everybody involved denying it
Then add the odds of nobody noticing a missile being fired at the Pentagon in broad day light, as Flight 77 flew over it.
Then add the odds of this missile hitting a number of lamp posts on the way.
Then add the odds of every witness saying they saw a large fixed wing aircraft and not a missile.
Then add the odds of fooling all the aircraft investigators
Then add the odds of all the forensic scientists being fooling
Then add the odds of over 200 independent experts employed by NIST to investigate the Towers being fooled or bribed
Then add the odds of the 911 commission being totally corrupt and covering it all up.

I know I have missed a lot but could somebody actually come up with odds of this conspiracy working or does it simply go off the scale?

Finally what are the odds of somebody aurthorising this?
 
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DarkMagician said:
Okay, I feel like an ass now. Sorry 'bout that. I was just trying to be funny. I meant no malice with that post.
Click to expand...

Ah, okay. You know, since I've seen JREF members trip over bad spelling before, I assumed you did as well.

Could have used one of those --> ;)

No bad feelings :)

ETA: Sorry for the outburst.
 
geggy said:
All I'm asking you to do is to think like a terrorist. Pretend you're osama and the major part of planning an attack such as 9/11, especially 9/11, is to map out strategies in bypassing defense and security, let alone the US spending an average of 300 million a year on it, what odds would you think you have in succeeding?
Click to expand...
well obviously hijacking planes is nothing new to terrorists, and after that its pretty much downhill
 
What are the odds that the lottery numbers last week were 6-37-41-43-45-47? (florida, btw.. in case you might have won). They are pretty bad.. like 1 in 22 million, I think... since a 1:22Million event occured, does that mean it's a conspiracy?

I forget the name of the fallacy, but it is one. Looking at things that did happen, and then asking the odds. You fail to account for all the other attempts that didn't happen and were foiled.

Furthermore, you grossly overestimate the difficulty in commit a terrorist attack.
 
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