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What are the odds...

geggy said:
...of osama bin laden and the 19 hijackers defeating the US's defense system, including the government insiders, military departments and intelligence and security agencies...?

To name a few...
NSA
FBI
DIA
CIA
NIC
DOD
NORAD
USAF
NEADS
FAA
INS
DEA
CT
DS

I'd say 100 million to 1.
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Geggy. If all of these organizations were present at all points in the hijacking/crash plot, and aware something like this was going to happen, and were waiting for it, than yes I think your odds are correct.

I think David Wong did a good job on any other comment I would make...so what he said.
:)
TAM
 
Anti-sophist said:
What are the odds that the lottery numbers last week were 6-37-41-43-45-47?

I forget the name of the fallacy, but it is one. Looking at things that did happen, and then asking the odds. You fail to account for all the other attempts that didn't happen and were foiled.

Furthermore, you grossly overestimate the difficulty in commit a terrorist attack.
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yes, tell the dinosaurs there is no way that an asteroid/meteorite hit the earth and caused their extinction, the odds had to be 100 Million to 1...

Oh wait, they are already extinct...a meteorite/asteroid I believe.

:)
TAM
 
Anti-sophist said:
I forget the name of the fallacy, but it is one. Looking at things that did happen, and then asking the odds. You fail to account for all the other attempts that didn't happen and were foiled.
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texas sharpshooter i believe, but i could be wrong
 
What are the odds that, in a society like the USA with a very active and inquisitive media that the BIGGEST story in the world, a government pre-planned and carried out the assassination of 3,000 of its own civilians, and this was exposed not by the print or television media but by a few teenagers on the internet?
 
geggy said:
...of osama bin laden and the 19 hijackers defeating the US's defense system, including the government insiders, military departments and intelligence and security agencies...?

To name a few...
NSA
FBI
DIA
CIA
NIC
DOD
NORAD
USAF
NEADS
FAA
INS
DEA
CT
DS

I'd say 100 million to 1.
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I don't agree with your posted odds, but putting that aside:

An average human ejaculate contains about 180 million sperm.
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http://www2.oakland.edu/biology/lindemann/spermfacts.htmhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ejaculation

The majority of us has already beaten those odds at least once.
 
geggy said:
...of osama bin laden and the 19 hijackers defeating the US's defense system, including the government insiders, military departments and intelligence and security agencies...?
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The only "defense system" they had to beat was airport security. And how did all previous hijackers throughout history manage to get past this defense system? The difference on 9/11 was that once the hijackers had control of the plane, rather than just demand ransom, they decided to crash the planes into some buildings. What were the odds of that succeeding? Pretty damn good.

Steve S.
 
steve s said:
The only "defense system" they had to beat was airport security. And how did all previous hijackers throughout history manage to get past this defense system? The difference on 9/11 was that once the hijackers had control of the plane, rather than just demand ransom, they decided to crash the planes into some buildings. What were the odds of that succeeding? Pretty damn good.

Steve S.
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Good one, me thinks it is lost, on the hindsight conspiracy theorizers!
 
Dog Town said:
Good one, me thinks it is lost, on the hindsight conspiracy theorizers!
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I think that most of the Loosers are too young to remember the hijackings that took place in the '70s and '80s. They seem to think hijackings had never happened prior to 9/11.

Steve S.
 
TruthSeeker1234 said:
Geggy -

Elias Davidsson has given a paper using the approach you suggest. He assigns probabilities to various aspects of 9/11 and computes the resulting odds.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/DAV504A.html

Perhaps you will find it interesting.
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did you know the odds of any of use being born are 1:180,000,000^2^n where n is the number of generations since the dawn of man

suffice it to say the probability of any of us existing is basically 0, so all this conspiracy talk is pointless, the conspirators dont exist, you dont exist, i dont exist, we are all figments of some greater beings active imagination
 
TruthSeeker1234 said:
Geggy -

Elias Davidsson has given a paper using the approach you suggest. He assigns probabilities to various aspects of 9/11 and computes the resulting odds.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/DAV504A.html

Perhaps you will find it interesting.
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Yeah, but with perfect hindsight, you could construct a list such as this to prove that any event is so unlikely as to be impossible. I could prove that there's no way I can be living in the house I am now, if I wanted to. And yet, I mowed the lawn this week.

Anyone can pull "probablities" out of their a$$ if they want to, it doesn't "prove" anything.
 
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geggy said:
Pretend you're osama and the major part of planning an attack such as 9/11, especially 9/11, is to map out strategies in bypassing defense and security
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I'll tell you one thing - I sure wouldn't steal a Russian bomber and fly from Asia to the US, and I wouldn't buy a fleet of tanks and try to attack US forces in the Middle East, 'cause that $300 billion a year is spent defending against that kind of stuff.
 
Geggy, I know it's been a while since 9/11 and everyone's gotten pretty comfortable with that, but do you remember what it was like before that? I remeber at airports you could walk in and go to a terminal, you didn't even need a ticket. Now, of course, you need an ID and a ticket and to be searched, you can't even send off family members. There was no security at all then. You used to be able to bring knives that were smaller than the palm of your hand, scissors, nail clippers, lighters, etc. Now you can't bring your toothpaste apparently. You used to be able to check your bags and they might do a random search, now they X-ray everything you own and run it through metal detectors.
 
Once the hijackers realized that SOP for airlines (at that time) was to cede the plane to the hijackers and allow them to fly to their destination, and once they understood that they could smuggle boxcutters onto the planes and easily take hostages and work their way into the cockpit, the odds were extremely high in their favor.

It ain't hard to get around the dogs once you figure out where they're not at.
 
Geggy, I know it's been a while since 9/11 and everyone's gotten pretty comfortable with that, but do you remember what it was like before that? I remeber at airports you could walk in and go to a terminal, you didn't even need a ticket. Now, of course, you need an ID and a ticket and to be searched, you can't even send off family members.
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Hell as a non-passenger you could even walk on planes!
In the early 80's I used to fly free from PHX to Dallas, by just staying on a non-sold out southwest flight, that I only bought from LA to PHX.
I knew the system in highschool!
 
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This sort of analysis is the equivalent of of dealing yourself a five-card poker hand, and then saying "the odds against getting that exact hand were 2,596,959 to 1!" It's technically true, but completely meaningless. The steps taken were going to lead to SOME result.

This is all a fallacy. You can take any event, and work backwards to determine incredible odds against it happening.
 
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