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We Support Democracy and Free Markets ...

You are assuming the criteria used for "safe and sound" is a concrete foundation. I would argue giving a loan in a low income neighborhood is a bad premise to begin with.

Also, do you want to be the banker with the bad review on discrimination and lose good business or are you the banker who dishes out the borderline loans to be the "community" banker. The CRA created a no-win situation.

I'm not going to disagree that this could have been a sequence but it needs to be shown to be the case befor tha tcould because a was, and it is still quite a distance from that to any company being forced to make bad loans.



Big difference between "Bad" and "Higher Risk"

There can be - but what's that got to do with the price of butter?
 
I'm not arguing they were forced to do it and I wasn't intending to imply it. That is obviously not correct and too much of an absolute statement. That is one of the problems with arguing one element of a greater picture. They were however encouraged to do this type of business or face scrutiny through the CRA. Of course corruption among underwriters and mortgage brokers was par for the course. They get paid for getting the loan through without caring for the welfare of the bank in general and the bank has one hand tied worrying about repercussions of denying too many loans. The ripple affect was middle class homeowners getting into upper-middle class homes they couldn't afford as well. That's a simple way of looking at it and a fraction of the overall problem, but it was only the CRA part I was responding to.
 
Tailgaiter,

What does that have to do with the CRA?
It was clearly highly PROFITABLE for these brokers to arrange these loans. It was profitable for the underwriters to pretend nothing was wrong with them. Why suggest they were forced into it?
Before CRA, they would have come under intense scrutiny by regulators for such practices, and would have faced probable sanctions.
CRA allowed--no, encouraged--these practices. Nobody was actually "Forced" into it.
The law of unintentional consequences took over from there.
 
I am surprised that there are people who claim to support free markets. Yet when the swing comes and the chickens come to roost on bad debt, what do they do? They blame the government and then ask for a bailout.
I don't know who you refer to, but I think such a position is flawed.

However the reason why bailouts are sometimes warranted (why they are in the public interest) is that the operation of markets sometimes produces negative externalities which had not been adequately forseen nor protected against (and perhaps cannot be efficiently forseen nor protected against in advance--but that is another debate) and the government then needs to protect society from the externalities in the best way possible (in the best interest of the public again)

In this case the externalities are the net losses and negative net asset value of a plethora of portfolios of derivative securities constructed by the private sector in investment banking units of financial firms. They were legally entered into, regardless of whether the incentive structure that led to that was believed to be messed up or not (many people conclude that it was severely lacking). And yet the losses incurred have become grave enough in some cases to drive the owners of the securities into near or actual bankruptcy. Which is "fine" by itself, except that the near or actual bankruptcy of a large number of firms all at once risks inflicting indiscriminate net damage to others who were not involved in the transactions of buying and selling those securities, namely other businesses and society.

Nothing about free-markets prevents that happening, and a free-marketeer who is barmy enough to claim that negative externalities don't arise now has another large data point of empirical disproof.

Effective government oversight of markets ideally minimises the likelihood of catastrophic externalities hitting society. It does not look like the oversight in the system was very effective. Hence "crisis management" of various sorts that we have seen.

But make no mistake, the intention of government bailouts is to protect society, first and foremost--not to re-equitise private actors who have lost money for its own sake, although that may be a precondition for protecting society. If society is called on to make an up-front payment for that, it would be because the government believes that such a payment will work out cheaper than the outcome if the damage is left to progress unchecked.

The market is adjusting to something, I wonder why the price of oil dropped and t-bill sales went up? So maybe let the markets slide a while, let 'market forces' and the 'private sector' do what they are supposed to? After that then come in with the credit bailout. Here is the deal, people loaned money, people borrowed money, and now the chickens have come back. Some people who borrowed money, who shouldn't have are going to loose their homes. Some people who bought high yield mortgage backed securities are going to loose money. Some of us are going to loose our jobs. That is the cycle, what happened to the 'strong fundamentals'? Why is it that they ask for free markets and then complain about them?
It's up for debate what the most cost effective type of bailout could be, or even if one is needed perhaps (though there are few, if any, dissenters to the view that FNMA and FHLMC "could not" be allowed to stop trading such that the mortgage-backed bonds they guaranteed entered default). But the principle behind it is as I have laid out,conspiracy theories notwithstanding.
 
... except for when we don't.

Yes, and America opposes torture... except for when we don't.
And America opposes assassinations... except for when we don't.
And so on, and so forth. This is news? ;)

-----

DD, you're still drinking the "deregulation caused this" Kool-Aid I see... just ignore the role of Freddie and Fannie and the CRA, just shut your eyes and say (like Nancy Pelosi) "it's all Bush and the Republican's fault!".

Because all those loans to low-income people encouraged and mandated by the government had nothing at all to do with creating this mess.

It's not all anyone's fault. However, when the chairman of the Fed and the Secretary of Treasury pulled a bunch of high-profile individuals together to try to enact some reform to fix things going wrong the last time [link], it wasn't under a Clinton administration where they all told the Fed and Treasury "no" and that they would "rather resign" than be held accountable for "what’s going on in my company." All your "but, but... Clinton!" taken into consideration, you seem to be pegging a whole lot more of this crisis on the mortgages than what was done to them, how they were repackaged willy-nilly and sold off in securities that would have been safe if not for their poisoning of the well with the toxic repackaged (and renamed!) debt-- all because they could buy into credit default swaps and still probably make a profit whether these clumped bad debts went anywhere or not.

It wasn't regulation or deregulation, or the CRA or other low-income housing programs that led the problems we have today. It was the fact that those companies in the financial markets eschewed fiscal accountability after Enron and their refusing to accept accountability going forward-- which led to historic executive salaries and less (percentage of) capital going back to shareholders and to the company assets-- which placed their own companies at risk, their shareholders at risk, and in some cases the market at risk, all while avoiding much risk to their own selves and their lifestyles.

Basically, it wasn't any specific regulation or deregulation to point at and blame, but the environment that was allowed to flourish that lacked accountability to the market, the companies, the investors, or to anyone else. To make it a conservative/liberal or Republican/Democratic argument is just plain silly (and wrong), and falling into the same politicized, unthinking rhetoric going on in the presidential race on this topic that is making things more difficult for people to get an accurate picture of the crisis.
 
Tailgater et al,

I apologize, I was assuming you were defending the statements of Wildcat, who used the word "force" in almost every post on the first page of this thread.

Still, isn't saying that the CRA allowed and encouraged the brokers to abuse the system along the same lines as saying a woman wearing a suggestive outfit in a bad neighborhood is allowing and encouraging rape. Yes, she's putting herself unwisely at risk, but at the end of the day, the people who raped the economy are clear.
 
http://www.traigerlaw.com/publicati...inckley_llp_cra_foreclosure_study_1-14-08.pdf
Figure 2a
"High Cost Loans as a Percentage of Total Originations
by CRA Banks (including affiliates) and Other Lenders"
Might show that the percentage of loans started in the CRA is much lower.


Why not try to discuss it?

Figure 4a
'High Cost Loans as a Percentage of Total Originations to LMI Borrowers
by CRA Banks (including affiliates) and Other Lenders"

Shows the same, try to discuss.

I want people to look at these figures again, the vast amjority of high risk loans were not made under the CRA, now we will see what we can find on the foreclosures.
 
Nothing in there shows the foreclosure rates, and that is the issue, isn't it? We do know which areas are getting hit with the highest foreclosure rates - and it isn't upper middle class white areas.


More assertions, where are your data, that sounds reasonable, but thatd oesn't mean it was true or that it is true. And how many of them are CRA loans?

data please?
 
It's the elephant in the room no one wants to talk about. Who is getting hit hardest by foreclosures DD? Here's a hint from 2006: For Minorities, Signs of Trouble in Foreclosures.

And what encouraged banks to lend in these areas? Hmmmm, that's a toughie! I'm sure it had nothing at all to do with the CRA!

Oh great another newpaper article!

Could you link to the research it mentions?
 
Source.

Hmmm, and can anyone guess which areas are being hit hardest by foreclosures? Anyone? Bueller?

At least you posted something other than a newspaper article! :)
Where does the word default or foreclosure appear in that document?

So here is the deal you keep making this assertion:

1.The CRA encourages investment in low income and racialy identified neighborhoods.

2.Then you assert that those are the neighborhoods where the foreclosures are the highest.

3.ERGO you hold the CRA responsible.

You have yet to show what the default or foreclosure rate is for CRA loans and you have yet to show what the data is on foreclosures in general.

So you have to do the following to make your case:
A. Demonstrate that there is a high rate of foreclosures in the CRA loans.
B. Shows that the CRA loans are the ones responsible for the mortage securities collapse.

Again it all sounds reasonable, but sounding reasonable and being true are two different critters.
 
So do you prefer the scenario where a demagogue stirs up outrage in the population just long enough to gain power and outlaw free markets?

How's that worked out, historically?


What?
Having the Government taking over the economy does not automatically result in a Utopia where wise, benovelent bureaucrats see that every citizen has a prosperous happy life?
I am shocked...shocked!

It is painfully apparent that Dancing David wants to place all blame on the Banks, and Wildcat all blame on the Government, instead of putting blame on both.
 
What?
Having the Government taking over the economy does not automatically result in a Utopia where wise, benovelent bureaucrats see that every citizen has a prosperous happy life?
I am shocked...shocked!

It is painfully apparent that Dancing David wants to place all blame on the Banks, and Wildcat all blame on the Government, instead of putting blame on both.

Plenty of blame to go around...
We need Engineers running things. At least most of us first try to fix the problem, then look for scapegoats later...:D

Politicians first try to find someone to blame, and hope the problem will heal itself with the mere promise of action at a later date...
A bad control system, or bad power plant will NOT heal itself once the wheels are off the ground...
 
And I would throw some people who bought homes they really could not afford into the mix.
 
To the OP: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were never subject to free market in the first place. They got such market dominance from government privilege and used it to decimate the competition.

There were a lot of confluencies that played into this financial crisis. The Community Reinvestment Act was a very very very tiny part. In fact:
http://www.heritage.org/Research/GovernmentReform/bg1861.cfm said:
Between 1999 and 2003, 9.0 percent of the conventional conforming loans (the type the GSEs are authorized to buy) made by the private mortgage market were to first-time minority homebuyers. By contrast, only 4.7 percent of Fannie Mae loans and 3.5 percent of Freddie Mac loans over the same period were to first-time minority homebuyers.
The sources they quote for the same statement:
Dushaw Hockett, Patrick McElwee, Danilo Pelletiere, Diane Schwartz, and Mark Treskon, “The Crisis in America’s Housing: Confronting Myths and Promoting a Balanced Housing Policy,” Center for Community Change, Center for Economic and Policy Research, Children’s Defense Fund, Community Learning Project, and National Low Income Housing Coalition, Jan­uary 2005, pp. 7 and 13, at www.nlihc.org/research/housingmyths.pdf (June 8, 2005). See also Dean Baker, “Who’s Dreaming? Homeownership Among Low Income Families,” Center for Economic and Policy Research Briefing Paper, January 11, 2005, at www.cepr.net/publications/housing_2005_01.pdf (June 8, 2005).
This source is a good read written back in 2005 so I'll hotlink:
http://www.heritage.org/Research/GovernmentReform/bg1861.cfm
Following the dot com bubble there was huge amounts of cash looking for a "safe" place to go. Oil also fell under this category of "safe". I blame Bush for much of this fear simply because he played the politics of fear so well. Actually investing in companies was considered risky especially following the 911 and the war. Foreign investment was no small part of this investment capital either. So here we have a huge capitalization wanting into the mortgage buisness. The market reacted by creating these mortgages to satisfy the investors hunger for these "safe" investment instruments. The value was after all not only supported by homeowners credit worthiness but also the value of property held as collateral. AIG got in trouble with the insurance side by assumming that one bad mortgage didn't increase the likelihood of more, independent variables, only they weren't. When people are paying 250,000 loan on a 100,000 dollar home default rates go up accross the board, not to mention other systen wide economic factors.

Now we get to the corruption. In late 2004 and 2005 Fannie Mae got caught cooking its books. Congressional hearings took place in which the democrats blocked the reforms pushed by the republicans. If there is any doubt debunk this actual congressional footage:

Fannie Mae not only blocked reforms but was not even subject to previous reforms enacted on financial institutions. They had direct fed lines of credit (2.5 billion at government credit rates) unavailable to ANY other private buisness or financial institution, and had implicit government backing against debt loss from there conception back in the depression era. They essentially made up there own rules. When this huge swell in mortgage investment happened after the dot com era they used government priviledge to dwarf all other competitors.
I could spend much time getting into how bad the coruption was but it would be a bit pointless. The fact remains: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not and never has been subject to free market rules. They are a privatized government created monopoly.
 
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So do you prefer the scenario where a demagogue stirs up outrage in the population just long enough to gain power and outlaw free markets?

How's that worked out, historically?


Uh, no, that is a bit of a sidetrack.

Why is it when I point out the fact that there are people who say they support free markets and then contradict themselves, I am suggested og being against free markets?

Unregulated free markets have their issues too, like selling products that kill people.

I am not talking about free markets nor do I believe that free markets are inherently bad or anything. I am talking about hypocrisy.
 
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I don't know who you refer to, but I think such a position is flawed.

However the reason why bailouts are sometimes warranted (why they are in the public interest) is that the operation of markets sometimes produces negative externalities which had not been adequately forseen nor protected against (and perhaps cannot be efficiently forseen nor protected against in advance--but that is another debate) and the government then needs to protect society from the externalities in the best way possible (in the best interest of the public again)

In this case the externalities are the net losses and negative net asset value of a plethora of portfolios of derivative securities constructed by the private sector in investment banking units of financial firms. They were legally entered into, regardless of whether the incentive structure that led to that was believed to be messed up or not (many people conclude that it was severely lacking). And yet the losses incurred have become grave enough in some cases to drive the owners of the securities into near or actual bankruptcy. Which is "fine" by itself, except that the near or actual bankruptcy of a large number of firms all at once risks inflicting indiscriminate net damage to others who were not involved in the transactions of buying and selling those securities, namely other businesses and society.

Nothing about free-markets prevents that happening, and a free-marketeer who is barmy enough to claim that negative externalities don't arise now has another large data point of empirical disproof.

Effective government oversight of markets ideally minimises the likelihood of catastrophic externalities hitting society. It does not look like the oversight in the system was very effective. Hence "crisis management" of various sorts that we have seen.

But make no mistake, the intention of government bailouts is to protect society, first and foremost--not to re-equitise private actors who have lost money for its own sake, although that may be a precondition for protecting society. If society is called on to make an up-front payment for that, it would be because the government believes that such a payment will work out cheaper than the outcome if the damage is left to progress unchecked.

It's up for debate what the most cost effective type of bailout could be, or even if one is needed perhaps (though there are few, if any, dissenters to the view that FNMA and FHLMC "could not" be allowed to stop trading such that the mortgage-backed bonds they guaranteed entered default). But the principle behind it is as I have laid out,conspiracy theories notwithstanding.


My current thinking is that the issue is that the current credit crunch and the cause of the Great Depression (ala Bernanke) is the issue that is scaring people.

This is fed by many weird and sundry issues.

1. The desire for profit (not a bad thing), it has caused some investors to seek huge profits, which is part of free markets (not a bad thing).

2. The passing on of the questionable loans after making the profit and perhaps the 'hiding' of the risk.

3. People loaning money that shouldn't have (which considering the small portion of high risk CRA loans is not the fault of the CRA).

4. People borrowing money that shouldn't have. For sure!

5. People assuming the housing bubble was a way to make money , so they purchased or borrowed money against house that they shouldn't have.

6. The current business model where loans are used to fund day to day spending, so people have to borrow to keep their business running.

7. The loss of the smaller banks, which fortunately seem to be generating again.


My thinking about the bailout is this, some people made very high profits. (Which is not a bad thing)? And the real issues of the credit crunch are real. Loss of housing, loss of pensions, inability of small businesses to function, increase in unemployment.

So my thinking is that the bailout should be focused on the consequences of the business cycle that people don't like, not bailing out the flawed high risk mortgage securities.

If the issue is that small businesses will loose credit, then that is what should be addressed, if the issue is that consumers will not be able to buy houses, then that is what should be addressed.

I disagree with interfering in the natural consequence of the business cycle. People sold houses they shouldn't have, people bought houses they shouldn't have. People sold securities that might have hidden the risk, people bought those securities. There are areas where the cycle and the free market need to address these issues.
 
So my thinking is that the bailout should be focused on the consequences of the business cycle that people don't like
I disagree with interfering in the natural consequence of the business cycle.
Which one of these statements is the right one, because they contradict?

Your list of sundry issues is a list of "correlated mistakes" which themselves get fuelled by 1) human nature and 2) the incentive structures of prevailing regulation.

If the issue is that small businesses will loose credit, then that is what should be addressed
The initiatives which get referred to by a sceptical and uninformed public as "bailing out Wall St fatcats" are intended to address this, as my previous post tried to explain. If a bunch of hypothetical small businesses can't get credit because they all use the same bank which just ran out of cash, do you fix the bank in the interest of the small businesses or just loan/give them money, effectively becoming your own government bank? The latter is more expensive.

if the issue is that consumers will not be able to buy houses, then that is what should be addressed.
It has been addressed by the stimulus bill in Q1 08 and by the 3.25% cut in policy interest rates since August 07, and at grass roots level by commercial lenders generally preferring to restructure a loan if they can than go for the house which is worth less. If you want more done, how much and why?
 

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