But what can we possibly do that prevents her from claiming 2) anyway? She has already done that.
Nothing.
If she makes this claim when it's untrue, we can say with all honesty that it's
a lie. If she says this when it is true, then any counterargument will sound just like she sounded when she interpreted the Wayne reading.
If the study is going to go ahead it will go ahead.
If she does it in a public place, which looks unlikely, she will need four volunteers. If they don't support the study, she'll have to work hard to find other people. If she does it at a FACT meeting, then they have to agree with it.
She needs the test/study. She can't do it without assistance. Nobody has to agree to assist if they believe the results are useful.
Who does it send such a message to?
Several people have posted in this thread about how educational it has been for them. I've gotten a PM or two to that effect. I know *I* have learned things.
On the downside any lurking woo believers present or future will see that if you just dig in your heels, the skeptics will capitulate and abandon the very way of thinking that makes them skeptics.
I will not willingly and knowingly abandon the rigor I had when I started.
Could anyone possibly be taking away from this that anyone thinks the Scale is a sensible way to test?
Yes, because you and Anita will have found a way to utilize it to create a falsification scenario. How many paranormal "studies" have we seen where we roll our eyes and say, "That protocol stinks!" It
seems legitimate because paranormal "scientists" use it. If skeptics assign it a value, it gives it credence.
It's a fairly simple calculation. Anita has claimed success in instances where she has detected something of 100%.
I am suggesting a failure rate of 16.7% or below. Compared to her own claim this is a massively lower position.
You're repeating the obvious as if it strengthens your argument. It does not. You haven't even provided a basis that 16.7% means anything in any way.
I apologize in advance if I am insulting your intelligence. It's not my intention, but I believe you may have a flaw in your logic about the numbers. I trust others to correct me where I'm wrong because I'm not an expert.
Here's the thing: Performing significantly below the level of chance is just as unlikely as performing significantly above chance. Furthermore, without careful analysis, a 1 to 6 miss ratio may actually be more or less difficult to attain by chance than a 1 in 7 hit to miss ratio. It sounds counter intuitive, but it's true.
We know a coin flip has a 50-50 chance of heads or tails. Assuming everything is kosher, then if we flip the coin 100 times, the most likely result is 50-50. Intuitively we say that 45 to 55 is not unlikely. Intuitively we also say that 90 heads is very unlikely.
At the same time we are also saying that 10 tails is equally unlikely.
So, if we ask someone to guess the results of the flip, we would expect them to get 45 to 55 of them right. If they got 90% of them right, we would probably think that maybe there's something there since it is very unlikely that they would get 90 guesses right.
At the same time we are also saying it is just as unlikely that they would only get 10 guesses right. By chance these two outcomes are equal.
Therefore, if I said that in order to falsify a claim of accurately predicting coin tosses a person must miss 9 or more times for each hit, I've actually made it extremely difficult for them to fail. It would be just as difficult as telling them they had to guess correctly 9 or more times for each miss to prove accuracy.
And that's with easy math. Take Keno as another example. There's a board with 80 numbers. The computer randomly selects 15. The player chooses 1 to 15 numbers in an attempt to match.
If you pick 12 numbers, the odds of getting 2, 3 or 4 correct are each better than getting 0 or 1 correct. In fact getting 2 right is 1:4 whereas getting 0 right is 1:43. See this website on
Keno Odds.
Thus, without any math behind your 1 to 5 miss to hit ratio, we have no idea what meaning there is, if any.
In the moderated thread I wrote this:
If you performed at level no better than chance, would you conclude that your perceptions are the result of something ordinary rather than the extraordinary claim of sensing vibrational information?
Anita replied
This is the type of test I expect to have. And if I fail to obtain medical perceptions in such a test I would definitely conclude, as we all would conclude, that it is not the case of a paranormal ability of perceiving accurate health information. Yes.
Work from there.
This study is not anything like a genuine scientific attempt to discover a perfomance higher than chance.
With modifications this study can reveal an ability that is no better than chance. That's all the evidence anyone needs to reveal that something outside of chance is NOT at work. Proving something cannot be explained by chance alone is much more difficult and has a much higher bar.
But operating around the level of chance is adequate proof that chance alone was probably at work, especially when the claim is 100% accuracy.
Anyway if Godofpie rejects her study I am all for that. But I don't think it would change Anita's intentions in any way. She would probably proceed with the study with Uni friends instead.
I'm only working on the asumption the study will go ahead no matter what.
And if she does, so be it. I want no part of it if it's junk science. That's why I insisted she remove my name from the study form and protocol. I will not assign any value to the results without knowing exactly what it is I am saying.
Show me your work. If 16.67% is around the level of chance
and a host of other issues are resolved, I will consider assigning meaning to it. Until then, it's just junk.
So we could all simply turn our back completely on the study and ignore Anita from hereonin (which doesn't look likely) or we can try and get something useful from it.
We should treat it the same way we treated the chemical identification tests and reading photos. Attack the data vigorously without lending it any credibility it does not deserve. If this is another test that means nothing, then that's what we should say.
Do you not think we could get anything useful from instances where Anita claims a perception at a level she agres is significant, yet it is incorrect?
I don't need anything useful. She does. I already know there is no ability.
What Anita needs to learn is how to evaluate data properly. Telling her that sensing mild pain or discomforting pain in someone that has no pain is anything but a complete miss is just silly.
I'm still not clear what your counter proposal is. Simply say no to Anita and hope she listens and ditches the study completely? Is that likely?
I really don't care how likely it is or not. I do not need her to do a survey, study or test. She does.
What do you want? Anita to suddenly say "Oh hang on this study isn't a sensible way to analyse my ability, I hadn't realised until you pointed that out for the 68th time!"
That would be nice. If I once again have to say, "Anita, you are not listening to people who know better than you. Your study was worthless and a waste of time. Nobody supported it." then so be it.
I am unclear as to FACT's current position. I thought they were agreeing in principle to the study as it stands?
His recent quote was something to the effect of that it's not fair to ask the group to participate in a study that will lead to inconclusive results at best.
Look Unca I'm not sure what you are suggesting. I don't see how simply ignoring the study achieves anything.
I'm not ignoring it. I already told you that No means No and any Extent means yes. I will only look at items in the last 30 days. I will outright ignore some conditions. I don't care if she agrees or not. I'm right, and she's wrong.