I'd rate them excellent. She has you by the nose.
If you mean that I consider her to be unreliable at best and mentally ill at worst and haven't dismissed the idea that she's a scammer, then, yes, she has me by the nose.
I'd rate them excellent. She has you by the nose.
If you mean that I consider her to be unreliable at best and mentally ill at worst and haven't dismissed the idea that she's a scammer, then, yes, she has me by the nose.[/QUOTE/]
Maybe I was just trying to prove a point and didn't mean anything I said in that post.
I teach experimental psych and part of that is reteaching stat. However, I would not touch a clusterfork like Anita's Mess O' Data with a 3 meter pole. I believe it was Ashles who pointed out earlier that you have to plan out the whole study, including the appropriate stat, first.
Even my less than A average undergraduates manage to master that concept.
This whole "study" is a waste of time and cannot demonstrate anything of value.
Thanks, Jeff. I agree with you that what she has designed is a waste of time. I designed my version about as quickly as I could type and format because I wanted to post it in time for it to be brought to the first skeptics meeting (it was, but it was not used).
My goal was to make it as specific as I felt reasonable given the time constraints. For example, issues with each arm were broken down into joint pain (fingers, wrist, elbow, shoulder) and muscle pain (shoulder, biceps, triceps, forearm). It was a yes/no proposition based on pain within the last 30 days. I figured even if somebody was stretching their arm like it was sore, it would still be pretty difficult to guess which of the 8 choices was the cause of the pain.
Likewise neck and back pain were broken down into direction of movement (three for neck, three for back) and muscle pain (neck, upper left, upper right, middle, lower, left hip, right hip). Thus while these types of pains might be noticeable to the observant (fidgeting, stretching), it would be more difficult (certainly not impossible) to guess the exact location out of 13 choices. Unless, of course, you had Vibrational Information™ at your disposal.
Any false positives would have been a step in the right direction. Had she used the form with Wayne, we would likely have had two false positives and no hits. At the worst it would have been 0 for 0.
Though I didn't crunch any numbers, I assumed that being this specific would result in relatively few check marks by most people. I based this on myself, someone who has a large number of aches and pains (comparison based on personal experience) as well as dental issues, vision issues, and a few surgeries. Even I would only check 13 out of nearly 100 choices.
I figured my form stood a good chance of revealing that something was not there providing she actually took some guesses. I doubt it would be good enough to prove something was there, but with Anita there is no need to prove that. She already has Apparent Accuracy™ sitting in the bank.
ETA: Her form allows for way too many check marks to be able to produce many false positives even if her guesses are totally random.
Yes, I addressed you personally by quoting your message. That's customary. Was this a problem?UncaYimmy
You have addressed me personally. First of all I have not linked to any of your posts, I have never addressed you personally and up until now I did not wish to do so.
Quite the contrary but irrelevant. We all make our points with the expectation that somebody is sure to disagree. All we can ask for is that our arguments are addressed rather than our personalities.Secondly, you dont seem very happy that I have come into this thread and given my opinion.
That's good to know. So when I say, "If Anita was a scammer, I would expect her to do X instead of Y" then you can say, "In a similar situation the scammer did X." In response I might say, "I don't think that's similar because <whatever>." Or perhaps I will say, "Interesting. I would not have expected that."I am speaking from my own experience with scammers. I have been scammed in my business more than once. I was also employed by an Australian state government in the police department many years ago and so have had experience of other people's misfortune with scammers.
Only in the specific issue of providing an opinion regarding the possibility that Anita is lying about being an international student from Sweden.You are speaking from your experience with international students.
I was responding to this:In one of my intial posts when I asked a question of another member you took it upon yourself to answer and say something to the effect that as far as you are concerned the matter was settled, even though you did not address what I was actually getting at - I can assure you it wasnt about whether Anita is Swedish or not. That is totally irrelevant to me.
Since you say that her being Swedish is irrelevant, then what is your point? You brought up a language issue. I responded to a language issue. If I missed the point, then please make it.Jonquill, I notice that Anita uses a lot of what I call "Americanisms" in her written speech, I thought it unusual for someone who has not been in the country a good while. An example of an "Americanism" is "you bet" along with a few others but of course I could be wrong.
Obviously I do not know what it is you are trying to say since my response about "Americanisms" was off the mark.I respectfully suggest if you wish to learn more about scammers and people who claim to perform psychic surgery, that you do your own research instead of scoffing at what I am trying to say.
If you are under the impression that I care about your lack of education, you are mistaken. Just say what you have to say. Some will agree and others won't. Such is the makings of a lively discussion.Finally I would have preferred to address you personally to thank you for the things I have learnt on this thread from yourself, as I said in my introductory post I do not possess much education and quite a lot of people here including Ashles have taught me a lot.
I don't often use "in my opinion" because it's always my opinion. When I give facts, I usually give citations. I expect the same from others.We are all entitled to our opinion and my opinion is that Anita is a future scammer of gullible woos. if you do not agree with my opinion then thats what makes it such an interesting world to live in - in my opinion of course.
Yes, I addressed you personally by quoting your message. That's customary. Was this a problem?
Quite the contrary but irrelevant. We all make our points with the expectation that somebody is sure to disagree. All we can ask for is that our arguments are addressed rather than our personalities.
That's good to know. So when I say, "If Anita was a scammer, I would expect her to do X instead of Y" then you can say, "In a similar situation the scammer did X." In response I might say, "I don't think that's similar because <whatever>." Or perhaps I will say, "Interesting. I would not have expected that."
Only in the specific issue of providing an opinion regarding the possibility that Anita is lying about being an international student from Sweden.
I am the youngest of six children. My father, a CPA, owned several businesses over the years with both consumers and businesses as clients. He was also the CFO of a company that built shopping centers and office buildings and as such dealt with numerous types of businesses, many of them shady. Four of us have owned and operated businesses.
Two of us still do. My brother has owned an auto repair shop for 20 years. All of my clients are business owners, many of them in real estate (apartment building owners, mortgage brokers). I spent a year as a bill collector. I've been a landlord myself. My other brother has spent the last 20 years as the controller for three different non-profits, all of which have been politically based. He deals with politicians on a regular basis and has met at least a couple of presidents.
Starting when I was a kid, dinner conversation has centered around business and politics. To this day when we talk, it's about business. And when you're talking about construction, auto repair, landlords, and politicians, scam artists always come up.
Does that make me an expert on scammers? Nope, but it certainly makes me an experienced layman.
I was responding to this:
Since you say that her being Swedish is irrelevant, then what is your point? You brought up a language issue. I responded to a language issue. If I missed the point, then please make it.
Obviously I do not know what it is you are trying to say since my response about "Americanisms" was off the mark.
If you have done research on scammers and psychic surgeons, then share what you have learned.
If you are under the impression that I care about your lack of education, you are mistaken. Just say what you have to say. Some will agree and others won't. Such is the makings of a lively discussion.
If you had a doctorate in some area, it would matter in the sense that if your facts seemed accurate, I probably wouldn't double-check them or ask for citations. As for your opinions, it would depend on whether your degree gave you some expertise on the subject. Even then I would expect you to defend your position just like I would expect anyone else (myself included) to do.
I don't often use "in my opinion" because it's always my opinion. When I give facts, I usually give citations. I expect the same from others.
But let me ask you this about your opinion of Anita as a future scammer. What could she have done thus far or do in the future to a) convince you she's not a scammer and/or b)convince you she is delusional.
I have already pointed out several things, past and future, that would change my mind from delusional to scammer.
Yes, I addressed you personally by quoting your message. That's customary. Was this a problem?
Quite the contrary but irrelevant. We all make our points with the expectation that somebody is sure to disagree. All we can ask for is that our arguments are addressed rather than our personalities.
That's good to know. So when I say, "If Anita was a scammer, I would expect her to do X instead of Y" then you can say, "In a similar situation the scammer did X." In response I might say, "I don't think that's similar because <whatever>." Or perhaps I will say, "Interesting. I would not have expected that."
Only in the specific issue of providing an opinion regarding the possibility that Anita is lying about being an international student from Sweden.
I am the youngest of six children. My father, a CPA, owned several businesses over the years with both consumers and businesses as clients. He was also the CFO of a company that built shopping centers and office buildings and as such dealt with numerous types of businesses, many of them shady. Four of us have owned and operated businesses.
Two of us still do. My brother has owned an auto repair shop for 20 years. All of my clients are business owners, many of them in real estate (apartment building owners, mortgage brokers). I spent a year as a bill collector. I've been a landlord myself. My other brother has spent the last 20 years as the controller for three different non-profits, all of which have been politically based. He deals with politicians on a regular basis and has met at least a couple of presidents.
Starting when I was a kid, dinner conversation has centered around business and politics. To this day when we talk, it's about business. And when you're talking about construction, auto repair, landlords, and politicians, scam artists always come up.
Does that make me an expert on scammers? Nope, but it certainly makes me an experienced layman.
I was responding to this:
Since you say that her being Swedish is irrelevant, then what is your point? You brought up a language issue. I responded to a language issue. If I missed the point, then please make it.
Obviously I do not know what it is you are trying to say since my response about "Americanisms" was off the mark.
If you have done research on scammers and psychic surgeons, then share what you have learned.
If you are under the impression that I care about your lack of education, you are mistaken. Just say what you have to say. Some will agree and others won't. Such is the makings of a lively discussion.
If you had a doctorate in some area, it would matter in the sense that if your facts seemed accurate, I probably wouldn't double-check them or ask for citations. As for your opinions, it would depend on whether your degree gave you some expertise on the subject. Even then I would expect you to defend your position just like I would expect anyone else (myself included) to do.
I don't often use "in my opinion" because it's always my opinion. When I give facts, I usually give citations. I expect the same from others.
But let me ask you this about your opinion of Anita as a future scammer. What could she have done thus far or do in the future to a) convince you she's not a scammer and/or b)convince you she is delusional.
I have already pointed out several things, past and future, that would change my mind from delusional to scammer.[/QUOTE
nAda
Hmm...Anything Anita puts down as N, 1 or 2 will be omitted from the Hit, Miss analysis. Her marking 3 to a volunteer's 1 will be omitted.
If you mark down symptoms of something as 2 or higher and Anita marks it 3 or higher then, to be honest, I think it is fair enough to consider that a Hit within the parameters of this unofficial study.
If someone marks almost everything as 2 or higher then their form will skew the results. If someone has had pain of 2 or higher in all the places mentioned on the form then they really need to see a doctor.
Then what is at the center of relevance? I'm missing it.Anyway, in a real test this level of freedom of interpretation would not be allowed. This isn't a test and, to be honest, the number of Hits here are only peripherally relevant.
Agreeing that a percentage that a doctor couldn't possibly achieve if he was trying to get everything wrong is not productive. Of course she will agree to that.The main point of my rather arbitrary figures is that it introduces a pre-agreed point of possible falsification which, as far as I can tell, has been completely absent in the 12 years Anita claims to have had this 'ability'.
It is simply a start point - an introduction to the concept of falsification, rather than anything I feel has any particular importance as a specific statistical cut-off point.
With the next stage being what?It could easily be argued to alter the weightings or the ratio to be stricter on Anita (and more in line with real statistical analysis) but I feel that would lead Anita to reject it and, within this study, doesn't, inmy opinion, serve a particular purpose other than to simply remove the possibilty of falsification at this stage.
So, you're saying that getting Anita to agree to a falsification scenario that is nearly impossible to attain is a step in the right direction? And if she does the study, then what?Also if Anita rejected this definition of falsification then it is clear she would reject anything and therefore is not genuinely interested in having any sort of falsification scenario.
Better a stalemate than a surrender.The study, if it goes ahead, is almost certain to use Anita's new forms. Nobody likes these forms except Anita, but it looks like they aren't going to change.
Right. Because she already believes she has this ability. Nobody else does. So when she does this study, she still believes it and we don't. Only now she can say that the skeptics failed to falsify her claim.There is also agreement by both Anita and skeptics that this test cannot in any way provide evidence towards suggesting the existence of any 'ability'. So I don't see it is a huge problem to use the figures and assumptions I have made.
First off, the form is not clear on how many time frames can be circled. It must be made clear that only the most recent can be circled and that the Extent relates to that time frame. Right now Florida voters would circle more than one Extent and time frame.But of course I am open to suggestions or modifications.
Thanks for sticking up for one of our new members. He is real and he was at our last meeting and he has not been treated very well so far in the forum. This thread has taken a nasty turn. IMO skepticism needs to be a very large tent. I welcome people like Anita. Below you will find a PM I sent to Anita yesterday and I have not heard back from her so I am going to post it here.OK, assuming that dirtygreek is who he (for the sake of this post, I'll assume that he's a male and not a female) claims to be, I think that the responses to his post are counterproductive. Another member of the skeptics group is willing to give his take on VfF after meeting her in person. Granted, he missed her "reading" of Wayne, but he was there and met her and presumably, he'll be there in the future and he's probably one of the skeptics willing to help her with her study (however flawed).
Suddenly, he's attacked from all sides. People offer "helpful" edits to his post. Generally, it seems like this new potentially very helpful poster is very unwelcome.
Yes, he fired the first shot by questioning the personalities of some of the other posters. He did not attack any one poster. I suspect that as we've read through the 2000+ posts here that we've all thought at one point or another, "I wouldn't have said it that way," or "That person has issues" about someone other than VfF.
While there's been some back and forth. We mostly keep our big traps shut. dirtygreek made a very generalized statement that we could all probably agree with and finds that he's walked into a snakepit.
He can probably handle it. He probably doesn't need me to defend him. I'm not really defending him, I'm defending the idea that it's not necessarily a great policy to attack a new poster immediately, especially when he has more immediate knowledge and access to VfF than any of us do.
I assume he showed up to help, and I'm guessing that he has real help to offer.
Is he an expert on scam vs. delusion? Probably not. Has he read this entire thread? Who among us hasn't skipped at least a few posts (or portions of posts)? He's not perfect, but rather than attacking him for incomplete information or not backing his analysis with clear evidence, we could probably more easily get the information we want by politely asking.
Sorry. I just think his welcome to the forum has been unnecessarily unfriendly and counterproductive.
Ward
I welcome people like Anita.
The problem I have with the scammer theory is this: Where is the parallel? By that I mean how many scammers have started on skeptic websites to begin their scam? The evidence is that 99.99% of the scammers avoid skeptic websites altogether. Those rare few that have approached typically want to take the challenge, which is a great way to get publicity.
In the case of The Professor he played it almost perfectly, even offering skeptics $25K for helping him win. He wanted his "test" to be publicized (in a cemetery at midnight on Halloween in the Devil's Chair). Even if it didn't "work," so what? All he had to hope for was some noise on a tape, which he could then claim said something. People will hear what they want to hear. If there was no noise, then he could accuse the JREF of doctoring the tapes or simply say, as Uri Geller has many times, his abilities are unreliable and difficult under laboratory conditions.
He also pointed out on other sites how unfair and close minded the skeptics were. If somebody called him delusional, do you think he would take the time to address that symptom by symptom? No. He'd use it as evidence that the skeptics are afraid of him and refuse to even consider the paranormal. He turned negative responses into positive responses by spinning them to his audience. Anita has done none of that.
Anita's guestbook was up for almost a year before the Doctor and Psychic guy signed it. That was a day after she signed his guestbook. Looks to me like she stumbled across his site, and he took the opportunity to get a link back to his site. It's the only one we've seen. Pretty much every other link to her site is from skeptic sites.
If she's a scammer, she's making incredibly bad decisions left and right. If she's a scammer, she's 18 months into it without making a single dime off of it.
If you were a scammer, what would you do? First thing is I would promote myself to my target audience: those who believe in woo. I would link to all sorts of other woo sites and ask for links back. I might approach the skeptics, but only to the point where I could make them attack me (which we've done). I would cherry pick the attacks and post them on my site.
I would make a big deal out of how the IIG can't explain my powers and therefore can't test me despite 18 months of trying to devise a protocol. I wouldn't keep the negotiation open. I would point out that after 500, 1,000, 1,500, 2,000 posts the skeptics at the JREF could not figure out how to test me and instead called me delusional. I would point how how they were wrong about me being from Sweden - not one person took me up on my offer to call me and hear my accent. I would point out how they insisted that I couldn't be taking a double-major even though it's clear on the UNC website that it's possible - what kind of skeptics can't do basic research?
I would make up much better "observations" than what is currently on her site. I would have passed the chemical identification test with flying colors - if they said I was lying, then why did they ask me to take the test in the first place? I would tout my success at the FACT meeting without linking back to a site the rips that reading to shreds - "Look, I even accurately read a skeptic on their home turf, right under the nose of the president of the group! They were too afraid to let anyone else test me."
I see none of that. If she's a scammer, either she's incredibly bad at it or she is the most patient and diabolical I've ever seen.
I again discount delusion because truly "delusional" because in my limited experience, those with delusional beliefs structure their lives around them in all areas and it becomes a part of them.
LongTabber PE said:If I were to hazard a guess based on the written word, I would say she is a "believer" in all things woo, wishes she had "the force" but is fully aware she doesnt. Part of her goal is to be counted and regarded as one who has "the power" by the masses.
godofpie said:He then made a list of four ailments, asking if she could tell which of the four he had. She was unable to do so.
godofpie said:He is real and he was at our last meeting and he has not been treated very well so far in the forum.
godofpie said:This thread has taken a nasty turn. IMO skepticism needs to be a very large tent.
There , fixed it for you ... Personal incredulity doesn't count for much here.
Since when can't a scammer be - soft spoken, not at all pushy, very genuinely nice and interesting ?
Endearing herself to the skeptical community could just be part of the set up; even though it may not be working for her in any way that we can comprehend.
While she is avoiding a legitimate test, she can make claims about how hard she is trying to work out a testing protocol with card carrying skeptics, and cry foul when things don't go her way .
Furthering that, a lot of mass murdered have been said to be interesting and nice people.
Yes, I've read that Ted Bundy was a thoroughly nice, personable young man.
M.
<snip>
She's back to being sweet since her actual test is no longer imminent. That aside, how do you rank her on her skills as a scammer? I know it's hard to judge since she hasn't actually scammed anybody yet, but you get the idea.
<snip>
Does all this mean that she may be a future scammer of gullible woos? Absolutely. Or she may just be a delusional gal looking for attention to perpetuate the delusion.