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Cont: UFOs: The Research, the Evidence

Sounds really constructive. Good luck. BTW, I just dropped this into the other site I post on. Can anyone provide some follow-up on how the artifact might have actually came into his possession? DId he work at or have buddies at one of these fabricating plants? Were there any such plants near where he lived at the time?

Those or any number of other more likely explanations than Witches/Alien/Angels/Fairies dropping it? For all you know the guy may have just asked a friend of a friend to mail order it for him, or picked it off a scrap heap.

The only evidence you have for it being from a UFO is some guy on the internet. Not a great evidence base, because no chain of custody or provedence can be claimed. We have no reason to suspect exotic origin if mundane origins can not be discounted.

So as Arktan said, "No".
 
Sounds really constructive. Good luck. BTW, I just dropped this into the other site I post on. Can anyone provide some follow-up on how the artifact might have actually came into his possession? DId he work at or have buddies at one of these fabricating plants? Were there any such plants near where he lived at the time?

I must say I wonder what the point of this is.

A quick net search will tell you that there's really nothing to the story.

What kind of research did you do on this before you decided to present the story to a skeptic forum? Don't answer that. It was rhetorical.
 
Those or any number of other more likely explanations than Witches/Alien/Angels/Fairies dropping it? For all you know the guy may have just asked a friend of a friend to mail order it for him, or picked it off a scrap heap.

The only evidence you have for it being from a UFO is some guy on the internet. Not a great evidence base, because no chain of custody or provedence can be claimed. We have no reason to suspect exotic origin if mundane origins can not be discounted.

So as Arktan said, "No".

Is Arktan the brother of Aberhaten?
 
I'm not one to question your judgement in these matters, but this one displays unusual tenacity.

Is there some small wager that we might make?

Rats. I owes yer a beer :D

ETA: Which, by the way, I can provide evidence for existing. The beer, that is, not me. I might be a construct.
 
To be honest, I only have glanced at the case materials very briefly and I noticed that Bluebook classified it as a lenticular cloud.
I've read the original report documents now and can see why it was classified as a Lenticular cloud.

Both Johnson and Thoren initially identified the object they were seeing as a cloud.

My first impression upon reading the original reports is that all of the people reporting it have somehow managed to talk themselves out of their original thoughts because the cloud (or whatever) didn't conform to their expectations of how a cloud should look or move (which lenticular clouds don't do of course).

The bulk of the reports from the observers don't mention the object moving away, but more that it simply got smaller and then disappeared. I guess this could look like it was moving away but there is really nothing to suggest it actually did.

It is also mentioned in the reports that the object seen by the crew of the plane called it a flying saucer for a joke (having initially thought it was a cloud), to pull the leg of one of the crew who was apparently a flying saucer 'believer'.

Another point is that everyone seems to recall viewing the object for about 5 minutes (one crew member says 10), and Ware states that he considered the object to be somewhere in the vicinity of Santa Barbara Island. This is much further South than Johnson's due West from his ranch and would also put the object at a distance of approximately 49 miles away from him, not the 25 estimated miles.
 
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Another point is that everyone seems to recall viewing the object for about 5 minutes (one crew member says 10), and Ware states that he considered the object to be somewhere in the vicinity of Santa Barbara Island. This is much further South than Johnson's due West from his ranch and would also put the object at a distance of approximately 49 miles away from him, not the 25 estimated miles.


Which would also put it within that same distance of view for hundreds of thousands of other people in communities from Santa Monica all the way south to Long Beach. Los Angeles County had a population of over 4 million people in 1953.
 
These are all good points. I am sorry I can't add much to the discussion. I am busy with some communications about something else right now. I still have yet to read the details (a pox on me!) but it looks like the claims that these were "precise measurements" and accurate triangulation is more overblown claims that just don't stand up to scrutiny.
 
These are all good points. I am sorry I can't add much to the discussion. I am busy with some communications about something else right now. I still have yet to read the details (a pox on me!) but it looks like the claims that these were "precise measurements" and accurate triangulation is more overblown claims that just don't stand up to scrutiny.
What a shock. :rolleyes:
 
These are all good points. I am sorry I can't add much to the discussion. I am busy with some communications about something else right now. I still have yet to read the details (a pox on me!) but it looks like the claims that these were "precise measurements" and accurate triangulation is more overblown claims that just don't stand up to scrutiny.
There certainly nothing accurate about any of it. It's all based upon guesses by those involved and varies from person to person. At the moment, nothing is adding up but I'm trying to find the averages of position and distance given by each witness to map it onto Google Earth.

Also in Joel's article, he mentions something about weather data showing it couldn't have been a lenticular cloud, but then he doesn't show or link to any data confirming that assertion, which looks to me like hand waving away the most reasonable explanation.
 
Those or any number of other more likely explanations than Witches/Alien/Angels/Fairies dropping it? For all you know the guy may have just asked a friend of a friend to mail order it for him, or picked it off a scrap heap.

The only evidence you have for it being from a UFO is some guy on the internet. Not a great evidence base, because no chain of custody or provedence can be claimed. We have no reason to suspect exotic origin if mundane origins can not be discounted.

So as Arktan said, "No".


All "No" means above is that nobody has any other info to contradict the claim.

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On Astros case, it seems that what we're talking about is nothing more than a wing like speck in the distance, apparently observed through some binoculars a few times. I didn't see any mention of radar contact or clear observation from nearby. So here's my 2 bits worth:

Triangulation would have been possible if all the data was accurate, however the video illustrations exaggerate both the size and speed of the unknown aircraft. And I use the word "aircraft" here because it had aircraft like qualities, and objects with aircraft like qualities do not conform to USAF reporting guidelines for UFOs. It also did not behave like something alien to our technology or civilization. Its appearance was that of a flying wing and it made no instantaneous high speed maneuvers nor did it exhibit any other performance characteristics that we can be certain were beyond the technology of the day. Therefore apart from the impression it made on the witnesses, I wouldn't say that it couldn't be explained by aircraft technology of that time.

The YB-35 and YB-49 both had wingspans of 172 feet and the top speed of the YB-49 was almost 500 MPH, plenty enough to outrun a WV-2. The apparent hovering may have been a result of the aircraft coming directly toward the observers on the ground. I see that illuson out my window here daily. When the airborne observers headed toward the unknown aircraft, it then headed away from them and departed the area. Gound observers say it took about 90 seconds to disappear from view. Supposing it went into a full power evasive maneuver, as appears to be the case, and considering that it was already quite distant, a thin black aircraft another 11 or 12 miles out could easily seem to disappear from view. The flying wings were also some of the first attempts at RADAR stealth, so not being detected by them may not be so unusual.

Probable Conclusion: A flying wing type aircraft similar to the YB-49.
 
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It is interesting that Pt. Mugu is the direction of observation. Is it possible they saw something being tested there? Pt. Mugu was where they were performing early missile testing. I will see if there is anything on that line to consider.
 
All "No" means above is that nobody has any other info to contradict the claim.

Which means we go to the default position don't we?

Don't forget your null hypothesis.

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On Astros case, it seems that what we're talking about is nothing more than a wing like speck in the distance, apparently observed through some binoculars a few times. I didn't see any mention of radar contact or clear observation from nearby. So here's my 2 bits worth:

Triangulation would have been possible if all the data was accurate, however the video illustrations exaggerate both the size and speed of the unknown aircraft. And I use the word "aircraft" here because it had aircraft like qualities, and objects with aircraft like qualities do not conform to USAF reporting guidelines for UFOs. It also did not behave like something alien to our technology or civilization. Its appearance was that of a flying wing and it made no instantaneous high speed maneuvers nor did it exhibit any other performance characteristics that we can be certain were beyond the technology of the day. Therefore apart from the impression it made on the witnesses, I wouldn't say that it couldn't be explained by aircraft technology of that time.

The YB-35 and YB-49 both had wingspans of 172 feet and the top speed of the YB-49 was almost 500 MPH, plenty enough to outrun a WV-2. The apparent hovering may have been a result of the aircraft coming directly toward the observers on the ground. I see that illuson out my window here daily. When the airborne observers headed toward the unknown aircraft, it then headed away from them and departed the area. Gound observers say it took about 90 seconds to disappear from view. Supposing it went into a full power evasive maneuver, as appears to be the case, and considering that it was already quite distant, a thin black aircraft another 11 or 12 miles out could easily seem to disappear from view. The flying wings were also some of the first attempts at RADAR stealth, so not being detected by them may not be so unusual.

Probable Conclusion: A flying wing type aircraft similar to the YB-49.


Surprise, surprise. Another mundane object.

Move along. Nothing to see here.
 
On Astros case, it seems that what we're talking about is nothing more than a wing like speck in the distance, apparently observed through some binoculars a few times. I didn't see any mention of radar contact or clear observation from nearby. So here's my 2 bits worth:

Triangulation would have been possible if all the data was accurate, however the video illustrations exaggerate both the size and speed of the unknown aircraft.


If the witnesses' observations were inaccurate, the data wouldn't have been accurate. You are, again, seriously neglecting the human factor involved in assessing such a sighting.

And I use the word "aircraft" here because it had aircraft like qualities, and objects with aircraft like qualities do not conform to USAF reporting guidelines for UFOs.


That's just as silly as any argument you've made yet in your continued effort to magically (and/or dishonestly) define or semantically manipulate alien craft into existence. You use the term "aircraft", but you don't have the slightest idea what it was. Your arguments have shown that you're prone to making lousy guesses. It could just as easily have been a witch or an alien craft. You have absolutely nothing to go on that would tell you otherwise.

It also did not behave like something alien to our technology or civilization.


You can't possibly know that. Since no alien craft has ever been encountered, since there is no evidence to suggest that any such thing even exists, you can't possibly know if an alien craft might fly exactly like a little J3 Piper Cub. Truth is, you do not know.

Its appearance was that of a flying wing [...]


Kelly Johnson didn't have superhuman vision power any more than you do. He couldn't have made out the shape of a 200 foot wide thing at 25 miles... or 40+ miles. He would have been lucky to even see it at all with his eyes, and binoculars would have only made it into a blurry little speck.

[...] and it made no instantaneous high speed maneuvers nor did it exhibit any other performance characteristics that we can be certain were beyond the technology of the day. Therefore apart from the impression it made on the witnesses, I wouldn't say that it couldn't be explained by aircraft technology of that time.


So you're saying the witnesses who thought it might be some kind of alien craft were wrong? Really? Witnesses who think something they see is an alien craft might be wrong?

The YB-35 and YB-49 both had wingspans of 172 feet and the top speed of the YB-49 was almost 500 MPH, plenty enough to outrun a WV-2. The apparent hovering may have been a result of the aircraft coming directly toward the observers on the ground. I see that illuson out my window here daily.


Apply that same line of thinking to your own alleged alien craft sighting, and you just might be catching on to what this critical thinking stuff is all about. Or does your special pleading fallacy make your unidentified thing an alien craft while Kelly Johnson's isn't? And how do you know an alien craft isn't shaped like a giant wing, have a wingspan of 172 feet, and otherwise exhibit flight characteristics exactly like that of a Northrop flying wing?

When the airborne observers headed toward the unknown aircraft, it then headed away from them and departed the area.


... or dissipated if it was a cloud.

Gound observers say it took about 90 seconds to disappear from view. Supposing it went into a full power evasive maneuver, as appears to be the case, and considering that it was already quite distant, a thin black aircraft another 11 or 12 miles out could easily seem to disappear from view. The flying wings were also some of the first attempts at RADAR stealth, so not being detected by them may not be so unusual.


A cloud wouldn't have made much of a blip on a radar screen, would it? And a cloud dissipating in a minute and a half isn't unusual at all. I saw it happen just today.

Probable Conclusion: A flying wing type aircraft similar to the YB-49.


So you're second guessing the USAF? When do we take your word for something over that of the Air Force, and when should we accept the Air Force's assessment as being better than yours?

Oh, here are a couple of reality check questions for you to ignore: How do you know an alien craft doesn't have flight characteristics exactly like a Cessna 336? How do you know that most times people believe they have seen a Cessna 336 it wasn't really an alien craft?
 
Obviously the USAF did more research into the matter than I have, but if they determined it was likely a lenticular cloud, that seems at least as good a possibility as any.




The result of your simple calculation above is testimony to the slipshod garbage the "ufologists" try to pass off as research and evidence. I recall reading that the binoculars Johnson used to look at the UFO were 8 power. Given the typical field of view on 8X binoculars, at a distance of 25 miles, the scene you'd see through the eyepieces would be something like 9 or 10 miles wide. Kelly Johnson was allegedly able to make out the shape, color, and size of a 200 foot wide thing in a scene 9 miles wide reduced to a circle the diameter of a soup can. Also consider the slightest shake of the hands would cause a wiggle in the view that would turn a 200 foot thing into a blurry little smudge.

Interesting that in almost 60 years since the Kelly Johnson sighting, even being declared as one of the top ten "UFOs = alien craft" stories, no "ufology" adherent has shown the gumption to get up off his lazy butt and figure out what a 200 foot wide thing might look like 25 miles away.

Why is it always "laziness" and not "really wanting to believe so I don't want to do anything that could threaten my belief"? I'd say that emotional need to believe would be the much greater contributing factor to continued belief than "laziness".
 
I still don't get this whole UFO "definition debate". As to me it seems the term has both a technical meaning of just "unidentified flying object" and also a popular meaning of "alien craft" and it would be irrational to deny the existence of one or the other meaning.
 

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