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Cont: UFOs: The Research, the Evidence

I still don't get this whole UFO "definition debate". As to me it seems the term has both a technical meaning of just "unidentified flying object" and also a popular meaning of "alien craft" and it would be irrational to deny the existence of one or the other meaning.


Since we're having a discussion about evidence of and research into the things as they occur in the real world ( not comic books ) it's only sensible that we stick with the definition that refers to things that actually exist.
 
I still don't get this whole UFO "definition debate". As to me it seems the term has both a technical meaning of just "unidentified flying object" and also a popular meaning of "alien craft" and it would be irrational to deny the existence of one or the other meaning.

We should also acknowledge that it means witches. After all, we know that witches exist in fact so they are infinitely more likely to be UFOs ( witches ) than Alien Space Ships.
 
Since we're having a discussion about evidence of and research into the things as they occur in the real world ( not comic books ) it's only sensible that we stick with the definition that refers to things that actually exist.

It doesn't matter whether or not the things exist for the term to have that meaning and to be usable in that sense, or at least for one to be able to understand that someone may indeed mean "alien craft" when they say "UFO". The problem appears when one then attempts to claim that because something was called a "UFO", then that proves that it was an alien spacecraft.
 
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It doesn't matter whether or not the things exist for the term to have that meaning and to be usable in that sense, or at least for one to be able to understand that someone may indeed mean "alien craft" when they say "UFO". The problem appears when one then attempts to claim that because something was called a "UFO", then that proves that it was an alien spacecraft.


The problem is when someone claims "well, the USAF referred to UFOs, and the term "UFO" refers to alien craft, therefore the USAF is saying that alien craft exist."

That is utter nonsense, but that is exactly the nonsense that ufology (the poster) has been trying to push here.
 
It doesn't matter whether or not the things exist for the term to have that meaning and to be usable in that sense, or at least for one to be able to understand that someone may indeed mean "alien craft" when they say "UFO".


Usable? For the purposes of obfuscation and equivocation, maybe, but we actually want to try an eliminate those.

The dishonesty as far as that's concerned actually started way back when the thread was created. Why do you think Rramjet avoided calling it "Alien Craft: The Research, the Evidence"?


The problem appears when one then attempts to claim that because something was called a "UFO", then that proves that it was an alien spacecraft.


Yes, and that's why we're much better off with just the one meaning, and what better meaning to pick than the one that actually means what it says?
 
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We should also acknowledge that it means witches. After all, we know that witches exist in fact so they are infinitely more likely to be UFOs ( witches ) than Alien Space Ships.
Ufology may think that this discussion of witches is frivolous but it's really not. It's a huge blind spot among alien believers when they fail to recognize the special pleading necessary to support a conclusion of alien spacecraft.
 
The problem is when someone claims "well, the USAF referred to UFOs, and the term "UFO" refers to alien craft, therefore the USAF is saying that alien craft exist."

That is utter nonsense, but that is exactly the nonsense that ufology (the poster) has been trying to push here.


Presactly.

It's all part of the same antipragmaticism which he uses to claim that:

unidentified = unknown = alien​
 
Triangulation would have been possible if all the data was accurate, however the video illustrations exaggerate both the size and speed of the unknown aircraft.
There is no data. We are once again working off guesses.
The crew apparently looked through their records and saw fit to note the altitude they were flying at, and yet not one of them has given the same location and direction as the others.

And I use the word "aircraft" here because it had aircraft like qualities,
How many aircraft in the 1950s hovered motionless in the sky? (apart from blimps)
How many aircraft in the 1950s (or even now for that matter) get smaller and disappear?

Its appearance was that of a flying wing and it made no instantaneous high speed maneuvers nor did it exhibit any other performance characteristics that we can be certain were beyond the technology of the day.
Except hovering and getting smaller and disappearing.

Therefore apart from the impression it made on the witnesses, I wouldn't say that it couldn't be explained by aircraft technology of that time.

The YB-35 and YB-49 both had wingspans of 172 feet and the top speed of the YB-49 was almost 500 MPH, plenty enough to outrun a WV-2.
Which would be relevant if the object was moving, but apparently it wasn't.

The apparent hovering may have been a result of the aircraft coming directly toward the observers on the ground.
Someone hasn't being paying attention.
The two sets of observers were at roughly 90° angles to the object (not exactly 90° but enough so that the object couldn't have been heading directly away from both sets of observers), Johnson claiming to be looking due West and the plane about 45 miles south of his position heading approximately North North West towards the object (after they had changed course to take a closer look).

I see that illuson out my window here daily. When the airborne observers headed toward the unknown aircraft, it then headed away from them and departed the area.
No they didn't, the majority of them simply said it got smaller and then disappeared.

Gound observers say it took about 90 seconds to disappear from view.
Mentioning gaining altitude. Note that when a lenticular cloud gets caught in a updraft it will rise into colder air and different air pressure making it dissolve quickly.

Supposing it went into a full power evasive maneuver, as appears to be the case,
Why would you even suppose that, there is nothing in the story to suggest such a thing.

and considering that it was already quite distant, a thin black aircraft another 11 or 12 miles out could easily seem to disappear from view.
Lets look at the eye witness statements and glean what we can from them (as inaccurate as they may be, it's really all we have to go on).
The flight crew say many contradictory things about their own position and the position of the object. One says somewhere over Santa Barbra Island, but that would put the plane due West of it and the other crew members seem to be pointing towards North North West (between Catalina and Palos though one has the plane as far up the coast as Santa Monica). The only island in the correct direction (and due West from Johnson's ranch) is Santa Cruz. Santa Cruz at it's nearest point is 49 miles form Johnson's ranch and at least 48 miles from the estimated position of the plane.
A "full power evasive maneuver" (pretending that it was simultaneously flying directly away from both observation positions), would see the mythical flying wing traveling at 500mph for 90 seconds (about 13 miles).
So the object would be over 60 miles away from both groups of observers.
Can you tell me if you could see an object that was 172' wide at 48 miles, let alone watch it disappear even further away than that (bearing in mind the flight crew on the observing plane were using their eyes and not binoculars?

The flying wings were also some of the first attempts at RADAR stealth, so not being detected by them may not be so unusual.
Small clouds have always had that technology.

Probable Conclusion: A flying wing type aircraft similar to the YB-49.
Or not.
 
Earlier in this mega-thread someone suggested more precise acronyms, I liked UFAO, UFO could be reserved for flying objects that are unidentified.
 
It doesn't matter whether or not the things exist for the term to have that meaning and to be usable in that sense, or at least for one to be able to understand that someone may indeed mean "alien craft" when they say "UFO". The problem appears when one then attempts to claim that because something was called a "UFO", then that proves that it was an alien spacecraft.
The "problem" appears when one tries to use the popular culture meaning in a thread about evidence and research.

Maybe if there were a thread about "Close Encounters of the Third Kind", "Independence Day" or "War of the Worlds" the popular culture meaning of UFO may fit slightly better (but only very slightly). :)
 
Why would you even suppose that, there is nothing in the story to suggest such a thing.


There seems to be a deep desire among the "UFOs = alien craft" adherents to make everything, even the most boring tale, into something exotic. When it's something unidentified, the "ufology" crew shouts, "It was an alien craft!" And when it's something as common and uninteresting as a cloud, the alien believers holler, "It was a really cool experimental airplane!" Maybe that's why it's impossible for those engaged in the pseudoscience of "ufology" to even realize virtually all of their arguments are falsehoods and logical fallacies.
 
There seems to be a deep desire among the "UFOs = alien craft" adherents to make everything, even the most boring tale, into something exotic. When it's something unidentified, the "ufology" crew shouts, "It was an alien craft!" And when it's something as common and uninteresting as a cloud, the alien believers holler, "It was a really cool experimental airplane!" Maybe that's why it's impossible for those engaged in the pseudoscience of "ufology" to even realize virtually all of their arguments are falsehoods and logical fallacies.
I'm wondering if Mr Uf's 'research' went as far as reading and understanding the original documentation or if he just stopped after watching the nice video.
 
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As anyone who has followed this thread will know, there are some serious problems that need to be addressed before any real conversation can happen regarding research into, and evidence of, UFO's.

As a brief summary:

1. There needs to be agreement on terminology and definitions of terms starting with Unidentified Flying Object.

2. There needs to be agreement on the null hypothesis.

3. There needs to be an agreed upon understanding of the process of rigorous research.

4. There needs to be agreement on what constitutes evidence.

(Please add to these if I've missed anything of importance).

After years of conversation there appears to be no agreement on any of the above. I propose a systematic analysis of the problems listed above.
 
All "No" means above is that nobody has any other info to contradict the claim.
Are you suggesting that without any information to contradict a claim that the claim should be accepted as reasonable or possible?

Let's follow that logic a little;

I claim that I have an invisible flying pink Unicorn in my garage. You have no information to contradict that claim, so you should accept it as reasonable or possible, right?

Um, no. Wrong. My claim is stupendously amazing. If correct it would overturn several basic tenets of our knowledge. Without corroborating evidence there's no reason to believe anything other than the possibilities that I'm lying or insane.

So with this case - without any corroborating information or evidence there's no reason to believe that the piece of metal came from any exotic location. The reasonable conclusion to draw is that he got it from a friend, or bought it online, or any other of a number of mundane explanations. Such pieces of metal are not only known to exist, but are relatively common. The claim of it having an exotic origin would require strong evidence to overturn the mundane explanation.
 
Are you suggesting that without any information to contradict a claim that the claim should be accepted as reasonable or possible?

Let's follow that logic a little;

I claim that I have an invisible flying pink Unicorn in my garage. You have no information to contradict that claim, so you should accept it as reasonable or possible, right?

Um, no. Wrong. My claim is stupendously amazing. If correct it would overturn several basic tenets of our knowledge. Without corroborating evidence there's no reason to believe anything other than the possibilities that I'm lying or insane.

So with this case - without any corroborating information or evidence there's no reason to believe that the piece of metal came from any exotic location. The reasonable conclusion to draw is that he got it from a friend, or bought it online, or any other of a number of mundane explanations. Such pieces of metal are not only known to exist, but are relatively common. The claim of it having an exotic origin would require strong evidence to overturn the mundane explanation.


wollery,

Q. You asked: Are you suggesting that without any information to contradict a claim that the claim should be accepted as reasonable or possible?
A. No. What I'm saying is that the eSkeptic article appears to provide a lead to a likely explanation, but I've found nothing else so far to add to it and I was wondering if anyone else here might know of or perhaps might be interested in taking a skeptical lead to come up with something more. The answer I got back was "No" ( Thanks anyway folks ).
 
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wollery,

Q. Are you suggesting that without any information to contradict a claim that the claim should be accepted as reasonable or possible?
A. No. What I'm saying is that the eSkeptic article appears to provide a lead to a likely explanation, but I've found nothing else so far to add to it and I was wondering if anyone else here might know of or perhaps might be interested in taking a skeptical lead to come up with something more. The answer I got back was "No" ( Thanks anyway folks ).

What wollery was actually explaining is not the question you instead decided to ask yourself. It was not a question. It was a statement of why your previous assertion that all "no" means is that there is no evidence to counter your claim is wrong.

You have not proven your assertion, so the answer is "no" until you shoulder a burden of proof and overcome the null.
 
It is interesting that Pt. Mugu is the direction of observation. Is it possible they saw something being tested there? Pt. Mugu was where they were performing early missile testing. I will see if there is anything on that line to consider.

It may not be relevant, but I saw a really odd weather phenomenon north of Pt. Mugu, up at Pt Sal (just north of Vandenberg AFB).
What it was, was a lenticular wave cloud system. Nothing particularly strange about that, you might think. They pop up on a small scale all over the place, but unless you're a meteorologist, or a sailplane or hang glider pilot, you're unlikely to notice them.
The odd part about this is that it was out over the ocean, upwind from the discontinuity of Pt Sal, not downwind, as they usually are. The mathematics of pressure vs. speed work out the same whether the discontinuity is upwind or down, but aside from this one, all of them I've seen have been downwind.

We were camped on the beach, and it was in view for several hours, and I can tell you that it was not a huge airplane or alien space ship that flew away. It was a lenticular cloud, in a rather unexpected place, and it eventually just faded out, as wave systems are wont to do.
 
I'm wondering if Mr Uf's 'research' went as far as reading and understanding the original documentation or if he just stopped after watching the nice video.

Stray,

I read the documentation and the report and watched the video and checked the specifications for the aircraft mentioned, and sourced out flying wing specifications from that time, and if you consider the margin of error for the details, there isn't anything I've said that doesn't make sense.

The way you write off the illusion of apparent hovering isn't entirely justified either. The ground observers watched the unknown aircraft for only a short time as it seemed to hover, and at that point it may have been on a heading directly toward them. Like I said before, I see that here all the time with airliners approaching from the west. They often end up flying right over my house and it takes them several minutes to get here. From the perspective of the airborne observers, hovering can also be an illusion based on relative motion. It wasn't observed for long by either set of observers before it changed heading and departed the area, and as we all know, as things get further away, they get smaller and smaller until they disappear, so that isn't anything unusual at all. Again I see the same thing here out my living room window daily. Lastly the "flying wing" description is pretty much a dead giveaway. They existed at the time and they say that is what they saw. They might as well have said they saw another airplane ... which is what they are. The idea that these professionals would mistake a cloud for a flying wing is quite simply preposterous. However it may have been the only available choice the analysists had if the FW incident was a secret test flight or related to some higher security matter.
 
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It may not be relevant, but I saw a really odd weather phenomenon north of Pt. Mugu, up at Pt Sal (just north of Vandenberg AFB).
What it was, was a lenticular wave cloud system. Nothing particularly strange about that, you might think. They pop up on a small scale all over the place, but unless you're a meteorologist, or a sailplane or hang glider pilot, you're unlikely to notice them.
The odd part about this is that it was out over the ocean, upwind from the discontinuity of Pt Sal, not downwind, as they usually are. The mathematics of pressure vs. speed work out the same whether the discontinuity is upwind or down, but aside from this one, all of them I've seen have been downwind.

We were camped on the beach, and it was in view for several hours, and I can tell you that it was not a huge airplane or alien space ship that flew away. It was a lenticular cloud, in a rather unexpected place, and it eventually just faded out, as wave systems are wont to do.


TjW,

Interesting Observation. Thanks for sharing.
 

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