Trump's Second Term

[Resume]

Trump will claim they were destroyed and his cultists will say "Trump said it, I believe it" and that will be that.

 

[Minoosh]

delete

 

[Minoosh]

Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/24/politics/intel-assessment-us-strikes-iran-nuclear-sites

Oh, what do they know?

Trump of course will go with ""completely obliterated. But maybe there are other types of damage that could slow them down a lot.

 

[Minoosh]

borked

 

[Minoosh]

Baby shah would not be a popular choice in Iran.

If something actually happens internally there are 2 people with clout and gravitas who might be welcomed to begin a new government: Mohammad Khatami, former president, age 82; Shirin Ebadi, judge, lawyer Nobel Peace Prize winner, 28.

There is a well develop system of elections in Iran. People vote but the mullahs decide who's on the ballot and have veto power anything parliament does. Occasionally a reform-minded candidate gets it. Khatami won by a landslide but wasn't able to make reforms such as expanded freedom of speech.

 

[acbytesla]

Baby shah would not be a popular choice in Iran.

If something actually happens internally there are 2 people with clout and gravitas who might be welcomed to begin a new government: Mohammad Khatami, former president, age 82; Shirin Ebadi, judge, lawyer Nobel Peace Prize winner, 28.

There is a well develop system of elections in Iran. People vote but the mullahs decide who's on the ballot and have veto power anything parliament does. Occasionally a reform-minded candidate gets it. Khatami won by a landslide but wasn't able to make reforms such as expanded freedom of speech.

I am admittedly not well informed about the current politics in Iran. I hope they could put an end to the clerics' power and influence. Just as I hope the US could. I also don't like the multinational oil companies and oil oligarchs getting involved. That's what scares me. And given that's how Pahlavi took back the throne in 1953, I worry that his offspring might be attempting it again. It sounds like the chance of that is remote.

 

[Norman Alexander]

Trump will claim they were destroyed and his cultists will say "Trump said it, I believe it" and that will be that.

He will claim the Iranian nuclear industry was bombed to dust even if the bombs were never dropped. Just the power of his immense brain caused it all to implode.

Ummm, the industry, not his brain.

 

[arthwollipot]

Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/24/politics/intel-assessment-us-strikes-iran-nuclear-sites

Fake news!

Trump doubles down on claims Iran nuclear site strikes were 'virtual obliteration' — as it happened

US President Donald Trump reiterates his claims that US air strikes "obliterated" Iranian nuclear sites after labelling an intelligence leak that cast doubt on the amount of damage to Iran's nuclear program as "fake news". Follow live

www.abc.net.au

 

[Pixel42]

And just the other day he was telling oil companies to "KEEP OIL PRICES LOW. I'M WATCHING!" as if that was all that was necessary to overcome market necessities and the problems created in the Mideast, some at least in part the result of his own actions there.

Someone should explain to him that when King Canute issued a similar order it was to demonstrate that he wasn't all powerful.

 

[jimbob]

Did you see the Ukrainian assault on the Crimean Bridge a few weeks ago? A big deal was made about it. But that bridge pier was incredibly overbuilt. The bomb had little effect. Underground facilities like this are extremely hard to destroy.

Exactly. I'd say that the Disney Bomb was the MOP ancestor; it was tested on U Boat pens immediately after the Second World War and could penetrate several metres of concrete. But not even 15m.

Presumably the MOP has better performance, but the Iranians would have been remiss to not have chosen the complex design with such bombs in mind. And underneath a mountain, it's probably only the entrances that are vulnerable. And those have been recently filled with dirt - one theory is to prevent Israeli commando raids.

 

[carlosy]

Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/24/politics/intel-assessment-us-strikes-iran-nuclear-sites

Forget intelligence

 

[Hlafordlaes]

Paris Air Show Score:
Fat Belly Sway 0, Intelligent Future, $21 billion
aka
OMG! USAian Losing Culture Took A Wicked Pasting

Boeing's command and control business style, in poor and misunderstood emulation of military C&C, is flopping badly. I saw this first-hand when Raytheon lost a business network spanning 50 countries through the inability to build and deliver on its commitment.

Trump's wins in the Middle East in Boeing sales can be seen as geopolitical sucking up, not a win on merits, whereas Airbus wins are based on design, performance and cost superiority.

The Fat Belly Sway culture is now fully on display in the Trumpling panic to portray its ineffectual bitch slapping of mountainous terrain as "obliteration" of Iran's nuclear facilities, and as we speak the yes boys are ordering their minions to stifle the Pentagon's after-action assessment.

The continuous improvement and battle readiness of the military critically depends on honest and accurate after-action assessment. Just as Boeing Boys have been telling engineers to stuff it and deliver whatever so monies can be collected (and given to buddies), well-run Airbus is delivering fuel efficient planes in full compliance with today's needs. The world is not as gullible as the corporate media-fed American voter and has taken note.

The role of the aviation industry in supporting superiority in military aviation is well known, with advances in one contributing to advances in the other, plus the effect of higher volume production on costs (see PIMS*). What some might recall is that when Reagan's 1980s trade balance dipped into the red for the first time in decades, a major factor in this was the rise of a competitor to America's number one export earner in dollar figures. The trade balance never recovered. Now look; Trump wants Europe to eat dirty meat and chicken using Fat Belly Sway tactics (Eat it! or trade war), and he is losing, losing, losing, just as Fat Belly Sway will always lose to its betters.

Fat Belly Sway vs Smart & Sharp. Guess who will win this contest?

Fascism's deadliest flaw is exactly this: while everyone is on their knees, unzipping and servicing, the competition is out doing the manly work. Oops! US used to know this, lived this, in WWII. That country died in the 1980s, embracing Reagan's magical thinking of the day, never since letting go of the good life in La La Land.
____
*PIMS: Profit impact of market share, the study and strategy followed in succession by Japan, Korea, and now China. Take the low end, get volume, own a superior cost structure, penetrate higher price and premium market segments with that advantage, and winner take all.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

I'm reading more about this and Pahlavi is saying he doesn't have political aspirations. Only that he wants to see an end to the present clerical regime. Whether he's telling the truth or not, I don't know. He lives in Washington DC. What concerns me is that it smacks of oil barons attempting a way back in.

He's most likely going to be Ahmed Chalabi the second.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

to be somewhat fair about the "leaks":
it is not hard to keep an eye on the B2 bomber base and extrapolate from that how long it would take at a minimum to reach any point on the earth. Any regime fearing a strike using them will always have hours of advanced warning.

 

[dudalb]

Fake news!

Trump doubles down on claims Iran nuclear site strikes were 'virtual obliteration' — as it happened

US President Donald Trump reiterates his claims that US air strikes "obliterated" Iranian nuclear sites after labelling an intelligence leak that cast doubt on the amount of damage to Iran's nuclear program as "fake news". Follow live

www.abc.net.au

I f I wa still in the US military, I would be scared. The Potus is rejecting what he does not want to hear. That always leads to disaster in Military operations.-

 

[Planigale]

Baby shah would not be a popular choice in Iran.

If something actually happens internally there are 2 people with clout and gravitas who might be welcomed to begin a new government: Mohammad Khatami, former president, age 82; Shirin Ebadi, judge, lawyer Nobel Peace Prize winner, 28.

There is a well develop system of elections in Iran. People vote but the mullahs decide who's on the ballot and have veto power anything parliament does. Occasionally a reform-minded candidate gets it. Khatami won by a landslide but wasn't able to make reforms such as expanded freedom of speech.

This is the main issue. iran has a democratic system, the only small tweak needed to make it fully democratic is removing the veto the clerics have on people standing for election. I think that once parliament represented the people properly, even the veto on legislation would fall.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

In a Time when the most prominent Democracy in the world, with the support of a large part of the Electorate, Media and Intelligenzia, is going Authoritarian big-time, it is at least a bit hypocritical to demand that another country should become more democratic.

The more prescient question is: what kind of government system would be best for the Iranians?
What is needed is probably a Technocratic government similar to China or Singapore to quickly elevate living standards and modernize the country without fearing too much about stepping on the toes of interest groups and losing the next election as a result.

 

[lionking]

In a Time when the most prominent Democracy in the world, with the support of a large part of the Electorate, Media and Intelligenzia, is going Authoritarian big-time, it is at least a bit hypocritical to demand that another country should become more democratic.

The more prescient question is: what kind of government system would be best for the Iranians?
What is needed is probably a Technocratic government similar to China or Singapore to quickly elevate living standards and modernize the country without fearing too much about stepping on the toes of interest groups and losing the next election as a result.

You seriously think Iran will have a free election? How sweet.

The cheerleading for Iran in this thread is astonishing. An insane
theocracy which has no problem executing massive numbers of their own citizens?

 

[The Great Zaganza]

I wasn't predicting what will happen in Iran - I was pointing out that demands that Iran should become more democratic are both hypocritical and misguided.

 

[zooterkin]

You seriously think Iran will have a free election? How sweet.

The cheerleading for Iran in this thread is astonishing.
An insane theocracy which has no problem executing massive numbers of their own citizens?

Are you still talking about Iran, or back to the USA?