Time stamped prediction

Darat said:


Claus and I at the same time pointed out the same flaw...

That can't just be coincidence - what are the probabilities against that happening? They must be astronomical.

Why can't it be coincidental?? :rolleyes:
 
the attack does not ferfill Lucianarchy's perdiction because it does not appear to have been planned as far back as november.
 
Wow! My predictions got a mention on the Fortean Times board. Apparently I'm an 'Arrogant Prick'.

Anyway, I didn't do too well. Pantani was found dead. But while he was famous in the realms of cycle-racing, he was not generally well-known. As far as I know, no one really famous got married. There was bound to be an important sports result, so that prediction didn't really matter.

I've only heard of one washing machine break down yet, and that was a day early. Somehow, I think Luci would have claimed that as a 'hit', but maybe that's my arrogance. :)

So I have to admit, Luci's prediction was more accurate than mine, but like the others, I think claiming a police station in Iraq as a 'Western Target', is a painful stretch. Maybe the attack was being planned as far back as November? Who (other than Luci) knows, and would be prepared to tell?
 
ceptimus said:
Wow! My predictions got a mention on the Fortean Times board. Apparently I'm an 'Arrogant Prick'.

I'm jealous! I can't wait to elevated to the pantheon of prickdom by the Fortean Times.:)
 
ceptimus said:
Anyway, I didn't do too well. Pantani was found dead. But while he was famous in the realms of cycle-racing, he was not generally well-known. As far as I know, no one really famous got married.

No, you did very well. It's just that your predictions were sports-specific. Mirella Maniani (gold medal in Javelin throw in World Championship in Paris, 2003) got married yesterday, Feb 14. And of course she's famous in the realms of javelin-throwing.
 
What amazes me is the fact that people at the Fortean forum are calling themselves sceptics. LOL. They are actually taking Luci's "prediction" as credible evidence of RV ability. What a bunch of morons.
 
Interesting Ian said:


WOW!! Yes. Yet further evidence for the skeptical belief system. Idiots :rolleyes:

<table cellspacing=1 cellpadding=4 bgcolor=#660066 border=0><tr><td bgcolor=#660066><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" color=#ffffff size=1>Posted by Pyrrho:</font></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor=white><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" color=black size=2>This post has been reported for rudeness. Yes, it is rude, but Forum rules do not prohibit rudeness.
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thaiboxerken said:
What amazes me is the fact that people at the Fortean forum are calling themselves sceptics. LOL. They are actually taking Luci's "prediction" as credible evidence of RV ability. What a bunch of morons.

TBK beats up believers!!!!!!!!!
 
ceptimus said:

Anyway, I didn't do too well. Pantani was found dead. But while he was famous in the realms of cycle-racing, he was not generally well-known. As far as I know, no one really famous got married. There was bound to be an important sports result, so that prediction didn't really matter.
This is how I find out Pantani is dead? I am so depressed. This silly thread is so pointless. If predictions meant anything, somebody would have foretold this specifically. This is huge! If Luci did not see this, it is like not seeing your hand in front of your eyes. The pirate, dead? I need a drink...
 
thaiboxerken said:
What amazes me is the fact that people at the Fortean forum are calling themselves sceptics. LOL. They are actually taking Luci's "prediction" as credible evidence of RV ability. What a bunch of morons.

Apparently, they are sceptics with a 'c' (soft sceptics) while we at JREF are skeptics with a 'k' (hard skeptics). They seem to be very warm and fuzzy over there, while we are hard-hearted and brutal.

In other words, a bunch of woos decide to call themselves sceptics and pretend to be 'experimenting' in 'psi' while avoiding the rules and realities of scientific enquiry. There are exceptions, but the forum rules don't allow aggressive questioning of woos -- it seems to hurt their feelings and upset the vibes.

Luci is doing an RV or telepathy experiment with them over the internet. Results are so far 'slow' in coming in -- i.e. they were not what the woos wanted. One real skeptic interrupted the flow of psychic energy by asking a question in the thread that apparently zonked Luci's wondrous powers for a time.

The thread there on the dreaded Ouija board is such a hoot. Many folk telling of the horrific events they experienced with boards when they were kids. Then all admitting that they've been so scared since, they never tried it as adults. The tales are like those told by kids round the campfire, late at night, perhaps away from parents for the first time. I guess these folk never get past that stage of puerile credulity and exaggerated story-telling.

Yet, I still get a feeling that these folks have an agenda that is slightly unnerving. They sure seem to hate Randi with a passion. Luci's blatant lies and spectacular failures here, and his retreat to a safe haven is cowardly.

I predict that he will be back here though, missing the cut and thrust of JREF, completely ignoring the Larsen lists. and spouting some more rubbish.

malc
 
JamesM said:
In case anyone's curious about Lucianarchy's own assessment of the prediction, on the Fortean Times messageboard Lucianarchy claimed success, based on yesterday's attack in Falluja.

So Luci's still around somewhere then?
The last post placed him him/her on this board was a bit weird.
 
malcolmdl said:
They seem to be very warm and fuzzy over there, while we are hard-hearted and brutal.
The mean and nasty skeptic is a favourite Fortean trope. It never gets tired for them. And with the best will in the world, the two threads here that Luci linked to does not show the JREF in a very flattering light - it's an absolute gift to them.

In other words, a bunch of woos decide to call themselves sceptics and pretend to be 'experimenting' in 'psi' while avoiding the rules and realities of scientific enquiry.
I don't think they're claiming it has any scientific validity. And characterising them all as "woos" is as misplaced as the tired Fortean strawman of the big bad skeptic.

I guess these folk never get past that stage of puerile credulity and exaggerated story-telling.
Some people find such things interesting, irrespective of its objective reality. Think of it as modern folklore. Personally, I really enjoyed the ouija board thread, even though I very much doubt that it's a way to contact the dead.
 
And characterising them all as "woos" is as misplaced as the tired Fortean strawman of the big bad skeptic.

I did say there were exceptions -- you were one I noticed.

But, if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck . . .

I can see how the Ouija thread might be interesting to a modern folklorist, of course. But it was all anecdotal, and usually based on early-teen experience, or hearsay about such.

I'll even admit that a couple of the stories gave me a chill up the spine, like any good scary tale or movie should. So, for that instant, I'm obviously taking the story in. I know that goosebumps are an artefact, a vestigial remnant of evolution, but i still get them if properly primed.

I guess that a bunch of die-hard skeptics playing with the board might even find that the planchette still moves due to unconscious input from the participants. But I reckon it would not spell out anything meaningful and the result would be amusement rather than amazement.

malc
 
malcolmdl said:
I can see how the Ouija thread might be interesting to a modern folklorist, of course. But it was all anecdotal, and usually based on early-teen experience, or hearsay about such.
I'm sure most Forteans would also acknowledge that. The fact that people report such things is what interests them, whether it really happened as those people report is less interesting to them than it would be to a skeptic.

As an example, if it turns out that aliens haven't been visiting the earth, then most skeptics will write off the UFO phenomenon as another example of human stupidity. However, for Forteans, the variety of experiences that can be categorised as UFO-related, the parallels between UFOs and other strange phenomena, and the cultural patterns that emerge from their study, will be a thing of joy forever. Nonetheless, it's worth noting that a lot of the modern UFO debunking is done by Fortean researchers - David Clarke & Andy Roberts, and the Fortean UFO magazine Magonia are both good examples.

The differences between Forteans and skeptics (perhaps smaller than you'd think) and the butting of heads that occurs whenever they meet is quite illuminating, but I think that's a subject for another thread.
 
According to FTmb, sometimes when JREFers disagree they get really up in each other's faces. So?

I'd rather play with the big boys and girls and have my assumptions questioned than be wrong about everything just for the sake of group hugs. :rolleyes:
 
Lucianarchy said:
OK.

I feel something like an attack is being planned for 14th February 2004. Don't know where.

I hope I'm wrong. If not, I hope that this message may alert vigilance around that time.
Obviousy, Lucianarchy's call for extra vigilance around that time was successful. Lucianarchy managed to prevent the attack!
 
Re: Re: Time stamped prediction

Thanz said:

Obviousy, Lucianarchy's call for extra vigilance around that time was successful. Lucianarchy managed to prevent the attack!

So he would have needed to extend his claim from RV through prescience and onto mind control? No wonder he left the JREF board.
 

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