The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-Opened

[Vixen]

So he claims.

He went to Chalmers School of Technology, in Gothenberg, which according to google:

"Chalmers University of Technology | Chalmershttps://www.chalmers.se › ...
At Chalmers, students in Nautical Science and Marine Engineering will get a course that gives them the ability to act in... Campus Johanneberg. Chalmers' ...
‎Master's Programmes ·"

Do you dispute this?

Bear in mind, he was a JFK and 9/11 advocate before the nautical accident even happened. Maybe his obsessions just come with a problem-solving mind.

 

[Andy_Ross]

There are plenty of others.

Ferry Austrheim capsized and sank in the Gulf of Guinea between Calabar, Nigeria, and Cameroon. Three dead, 108 rescued, approximately 100 missing.

Ro-ro car ferry Golden Ray rolled on to its port side and sank in shallow water off Brunswick, Georgia in St. Simon's Island sound.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Most sinkings in rough weather have no details, it's just 'Foundered'
I could list dozens.
It happens every week, most are barely reported because only the crew are involved.

 

[Vixen]

There are plenty of others.

Ferry Austrheim capsized and sank in the Gulf of Guinea between Calabar, Nigeria, and Cameroon. Three dead, 108 rescued, approximately 100 missing.

Ro-ro car ferry Golden Ray rolled on to its port side and sank in shallow water off Brunswick, Georgia in St. Simon's Island sound.

You do know that ships sold to third world countries are often ready for the scrapheap.

Ro-Ro ferries built from 2010 onwards under International Marine laws have to have decks sealed off from the car deck so that what happened to The Herald of Free Enterprise in 1987 cannot happened again. The HOFE roro sank within four minutes of leaving Zeebrugge. The Estonia left Tallinn at 7:00pm-ish but didn't hit trouble until circa 12:45.

 

[Andy_Ross]

2018 The ferry MV Lestari Maju sank off Indonesia after leaving Bira Harbor.

It has some similarities.

Waves reaching 3 meters struck the port side of the ferry and managed to enter the main deck through openings in the hull. The ferry then started to list to the port side.

Waves reached the upper deck and the ferry listed to an angle of 15 degrees to port.
In response to the threat of a possible capsizing, the captain beached thee ship 300 meters off Pabadilang Beach.

The Captain had sent a distress signal and Indonesian National Armed Forces, Indonesian Navy and the National Search and Rescue Agency were dispatched to the site.

It concluded that the sinking was caused by high waves that entered the ferry due to the low deck height and openings in the hull. The absence of a proper draining system caused the deck to quickly flood with water. The flooding then caused a free surface effect creating a list to its port side and the eventual capsizing of the vessel. The untied vehicles on board contributed further to the list. The Captain managed to prevent the vessel from completely rolling over and sinking by grounding, however, poor crew performance and bad weather led to loss of life.

 

[Andy_Ross]

You do know that ships sold to third world countries are often ready for the scrapheap.

Ro-Ro ferries built from 2010 onwards under International Marine laws have to have decks sealed off from the car deck so that what happened to The Herald of Free Enterprise in 1987 cannot happened again. The HOFE roro sank within four minutes of leaving Zeebrugge. The Estonia left Tallinn at 7:00pm-ish but didn't hit trouble until circa 12:45.

Which ships that sank last year were 'ready for the scrapheap'?

If a hull is breached then sealing the lower decks from the car deck will have no effect on the situation.
Water on the car deck and no flooding below will change the ship's stability and it can capsize. A partially flooded open compartment high in the hull is more dangerous than flooding low down.

 

[Vixen]

2018 The ferry MV Lestari Maju sank off Indonesia after leaving Bira Harbor.

It has some similarities.

Waves reaching 3 meters struck the port side of the ferry and managed to enter the main deck through openings in the hull. The ferry then started to list to the port side.

Waves reached the upper deck and the ferry listed to an angle of 15 degrees to port.
In response to the threat of a possible capsizing, the captain beached thee ship 300 meters off Pabadilang Beach.

The Captain had sent a distress signal and Indonesian National Armed Forces, Indonesian Navy and the National Search and Rescue Agency were dispatched to the site.

It concluded that the sinking was caused by high waves that entered the ferry due to the low deck height and openings in the hull. The absence of a proper draining system caused the deck to quickly flood with water. The flooding then caused a free surface effect creating a list to its port side and the eventual capsizing of the vessel. The untied vehicles on board contributed further to the list. The Captain managed to prevent the vessel from completely rolling over and sinking by grounding, however, poor crew performance and bad weather led to loss of life.

LESTARI MAJU (IMO: 8720541) is a General Cargo that was built in 1988 (33 years ago)

This was before the new standards came into place. German and Finnish shipbuilders are amongst the most advanced in the world. Finland provides icebreakers to the rest of the world. The Baltic and North Sea ferries are designed from the start - drawing board to delivery - as RORO passenger ships not riverboats, tankers or cargo ships.

They all have proper draining systems.


After the Herald of Free Enterprise the new international standards stated that not only should the car deck be sealed off from other decks but that the height was to be increased from 7.5m to 12.5m (metric_?) and that the car deck could withstand 50cm of water without capsising.

The examples you quote all seem to be completely irrelevant in that they sank being used for what they were not designed for, they were very old and at the end of their life, did not conform to International Maritime standards and have nothing in common with the accident at hand, so please stop listing them willy-nilly.

 

[Andy_Ross]

You aren't getting it are you?

They sank because they took on water in a storm that destabilised them and caused them to sink.

Estonia was 14 years old. It was not built as designed but had been lengthened by 16 metres and had the superstructure redesigned and enlarged before it was launched.
After it was in service it had it's stern redesigned and rebuilt to a different form.

It had previously been run aground.

It's bow fell off in a storm due to either design faults or fatigue in the parts.

It was no different to the ships in my examples.

height was to be increased from 75cm to 125cm and that the car deck could withstand 50 cm of water without capsising

Height of what? deck to waterline? What happens if the swell is more than 125cm?

What does 50cm of water without capsizing mean?
If the ship is not rolling then 50cm is no problem but what tonnage of water is it acrfoss a whole open deck? What happens if the ship rolls and the water moves to one side?

A cubic meter of seawater is more than a ton. You can work out the volume of water needed to capsize a ship.

 

[Vixen]

You aren't getting it are you?

They sank because they took on water in a storm that destabilised them and caused them to sink.

Estonia was 14 years old. It was not built as designed but had been lengthened by 16 metres and had the superstructure redesigned and enlarged before it was launched.
After it was in service it had it's stern redesigned and rebuilt to a different form.

It had previously been run aground.

It's bow fell off in a storm due to either design faults or fatigue in the parts.

It was no different to the ships in my examples.



Height of what? deck to waterline? What happens if the swell is more than 125cm?

What does 50cm of water without capsizing mean?
If the ship is not rolling then 50cm is no problem but what tonnage of water is it acrfoss a whole open deck? What happens if the ship rolls and the water moves to one side?

A cubic meter of seawater is more than a ton. You can work out the volume of water needed to capsize a ship.

You are not getting it are you? This is evidenced by your insistence in citing ships aged circa 30 years old sinking in third world waters being used for purposes other than they were designed for. For example, the guy who loaded cars onto a cargo ship in Indonesia and 'forgot to tie them down'.

The JAIC in their report found that the Estonia had been properly loaded. In addition, unlike the motley crew of the ships you cite, who seem like ordinary labourers, the Captains, first mates, second mates and third mates of the Baltic shipping lines have to be qualified. They have to qualify from naval schools. In addition, to steering the liners through the archipelago between Finland and Sweden, with literally over 25,000 islands, together with skerries and rocks they have to sit tough exams proving they know each of the relevant islands and routes off by heart. The Captain of the Estonia in 1994 was on the equivalent of $8,000 pcm as compared to the average post-Soviet Estonian salary of circa $500. So in other words, these vacancies are highly competitive and the essential crew highly qualified and the best of their generation of commercial captains.

As for the new recommendations after the capsizing of the Herald of Free Enterprise :

Since the accident, several improvements to the design of this type of vessel have been made. These include indicators that display the state of the bow doors on the bridge, watertight ramps being fitted to the bow sections of the front of the ship, and "freeing flaps" to allow water to escape from a vehicle deck in the event of flooding. The International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea regulations were changed in 1990 to require 125 centimetres (49 in) of freeboard (in the case of RORO vessels, defined as the height between the vehicle deck and the water line) for all new ROROs, instead of the previous 76 centimetres (30 in).[20] Some vessels omit the bow door configuration altogether and vehicles enter and exit from rear doors only. New International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulations are in place that prohibit an open (undivided) deck of this length on a passenger RORO vessel.[citation needed]

wiki

 

[Andy_Ross]

Then the bows fell off, it flooded, capsized and sank.

Your 'highly qualified' crew didn't send a proper mayday, didn't muster the passengers and didn't detail off the boats and life rafts.

What makes you think the Captains and Mates of 'third world' ships are just 'Labourers' and not trained and qualified according to the flag states they are sailing under?

 

[Delphic Oracle]

Well, when it sank, it landed almost face down, on a slope and on a muddy bed so it is not immediately obvious why a hole and two fissures should have appeared in the hull in the meantime. Water pressure? Maybe. Shifting around? Who knows.

Any trapped air pockets would rupture.

It's bloody heavy and not designed to slam into sea floors or even come to test for long periods of time at whatever orientation it likes.

I hear sea water is somewhat corrosive.

Have you even tried considering highly probable and straightforward explanations?

 

[Vixen]

Then the bows fell off, it flooded, capsized and sank.

Your 'highly qualified' crew didn't send a proper mayday, didn't muster the passengers and didn't detail off the boats and life rafts.

Exactly. Why? Lack of time? Tammes appears to have sent his May Day message on a handheld VHF radio transmitter. He didn't have the GPS for his location and is heard having to consult a person in the background. He was 28, iirc, had graduated, was experienced, enjoyed his vocation from letters he had sent to his family, etc. Events seem to have overtaken the crew too rapidly to do anything in the short time they had. Maybe it hadn't sunk in (no pun intended) of the seriously dangerous situation they were all in. Shock, perhaps, made him come across as ineffectual.

 

[Vixen]

Any trapped air pockets would rupture.

It's bloody heavy and not designed to slam into sea floors or even come to test for long periods of time at whatever orientation it likes.

I hear sea water is somewhat corrosive.

Have you even tried considering highly probable and straightforward explanations?

The Baltic waters are relatively salt-free, hence ships wrecked in its waters do not tend to corrode (cf: the Wasa).

I am afraid these ships are designed to be safe.

BTW I was reporting a current affairs news report. I was not advocating a solution one way or another.

 

[RolandRat]

The Baltic waters are relatively salt-free, hence ships wrecked in its waters do not tend to corrode (cf: the Wasa).

I am afraid these ships are designed to be safe.

Is that true? According to this https://www.hindawi.com/journals/ijelc/2016/3720280/

"Cold brackish water is expected to be more corrosive than warm ocean water. This is based on the theoretical model of corrosion cell and mixed potential theory, where the rate of cathodic reaction determines the corrosion rate. In seawater, the main cathodic reaction is oxygen reduction. As the solubility of oxygen is higher in cold, low-salinity water, the rate of cathodic reaction and thus corrosion is expected to be higher."

"The corrosion rates measured in long-term field test in Gulf of Finland brackish water indicated that for steel, zinc, and brass, for which general corrosion is expected to be the main form of corrosion, the corrosion rates are close to the expected average worldwide corrosion rates."

 

[Matthew Best]

I am afraid these ships are designed to be safe.

Aren't all ships designed to be safe?

 

[Andy_Ross]

Exactly. Why? Lack of time? Tammes appears to have sent his May Day message on a handheld VHF radio transmitter. He didn't have the GPS for his location and is heard having to consult a person in the background. He was 28, iirc, had graduated, was experienced, enjoyed his vocation from letters he had sent to his family, etc. Events seem to have overtaken the crew too rapidly to do anything in the short time they had. Maybe it hadn't sunk in (no pun intended) of the seriously dangerous situation they were all in. Shock, perhaps, made him come across as ineffectual.

So not so highly trained and experienced then?

You can't have it both ways.

 

[Andy_Ross]

The Baltic waters are relatively salt-free, hence ships wrecked in its waters do not tend to corrode (cf: the Wasa).

I am afraid these ships are designed to be safe.

BTW I was reporting a current affairs news report. I was not advocating a solution one way or another.

Not so safe if the bows fall off.

All ships are 'designed to be safe' and yet every year on average two a week sink through all causes.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

The Baltic waters are relatively salt-free, hence ships wrecked in its waters do not tend to corrode (cf: the Wasa).

I am afraid these ships are designed to be safe.

BTW I was reporting a current affairs news report. I was not advocating a solution one way or another.

Was the Wasa made of metal?

Galvanic corrosion will occur where different metals come into contact with an electrolytic substance. If you've ever seen a plumbing joint that mated two metals without a dielectric union, you know how fast this corrosion can accumulate (with a surprisingly small total volume of water).

I wouldn't be shocked to find these tears are happening right where the structural members meet the hull.

ETA: wood, on the other hand, tends to be consumed by biological processes that require the presence of oxygen.

 

[Andy_Ross]

When a ship is dry docked it has to be carefully supported on an even keel for the full length of the keel and support beams have to be placed to align with the frames otherwise it will be damaged. a ship part full of water and sinking is subject to forces it isn't designed for, compression of air pockets applies more forces and coming to rest on the bottom applies even more.

Some ships that sink don't even reach the bottom in one piece.

 

[Vixen]

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