Cont: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 8

[8enotto]

Russian supply is a main target, they are the ones with sketchy supply lines. Old man winter in that region is brutal. Even if they send the troops enough food and issued winter gear there is no guarantee it's going to get to front lines.

Ukrainian troops just having warm clothes, food and ample munitions is a huge advantage.
Russian conscripts are not going to be comparable even if in greater numbers.

 

[The Don]

Russian supply is a main target, they are the ones with sketchy supply lines. Old man winter in that region is brutal. Even if they send the troops enough food and issued winter gear there is no guarantee it's going to get to front lines.

Ukrainian troops just having warm clothes, food and ample munitions is a huge advantage.
Russian conscripts are not going to be comparable even if in greater numbers.

Exactly the same thing was being said last year but sadly the Russian line largely held through the winter. Hopefully this winter will be different.

I'm not that optimistic (but then again I never am ), Russia has just launched a big offensive involving up to 100,000 men at multiple points along the Eastern front.

 

[The Don]

A 6 minute Youtube from Anders Puck Nielsen discussing the rationale behind Russian "meat wave" tactics.



It's certainly food for thought

tl;dr version

- Because they can
- Because they work (for certain values of work)
- Because it demonstrates intent

He concludes however, that they're very counterproductive

 

[Dr.Sid]

If they can go like this for another year, Ukraine might not.

 

[steenkh]

I myself am hopeful. Moscow eventually withdrew from Afghanistan. Moscow gave up its Warsaw Pact vassals. Bleed them enough, and I think Moscow must sooner or later give up Ukraine.

Those events happened under a leader who did not want to see himself as a dictator, but actually wanted to improve the lives of the citizens.

Today, Russia is led by a fully fledged dictator whose only care is to ensure his continued rule, and to reinforce the loyalty of his most powerful supporters.

Giving up Ukraine, or even a part of what Russia has conquered would jeopardise Putin’s power, and even cost him his life. So, no, I don’t think Moscow will give up voluntarily, but Putin might grant the Ukrainians an armistice which can be his way out of a very difficult position.

In previous wars, like the First World War, we have seen how calls for a peaceful solution have been impossible precisely because of the huge casualties that had been taken. The idea was that the casualties needed to have a purpose, and so only a complete victory was acceptable. I fear that we are at this stage now with Russia, that public opinion in Russia, after being indoctrinated to think that this is a war of survival against “the West”, will not accept anything less than a complete victory. Putin knows this, and he will do anything to deliver.

Huge casualties only reinforces the story, and makes peace even more difficult.

 

[8enotto]

Exactly the same thing was being said last year but sadly the Russian line largely held through the winter. Hopefully this winter will be different.

I'm not that optimistic (but then again I never am ), Russia has just launched a big offensive involving up to 100,000 men at multiple points along the Eastern front.

Masses on unprepared men on a front have a short expiration date. Time to use them, or use them up is fairly quickly before dissent and desesperation cause them to be a liability to R commanders.

 

[lobosrul5]

How's the offensive going Russia?

Attack on Ukrainian bridgehead over Dnipro with 150 tanks/apv's failed.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWar...491/21_dec_unbelievable_ukrainian_bridgehead/

3 SU-34's, shotdown.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWar...today_on_the_southern_front_ukrainian_forces/

Meatwave attack countered by US supplied DPICM's.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWar...he_afu_repelled_a_fairly_big_russian_assault/

Russian's even dying while waiting in line at the recruitment office.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWar...ssia_34yearold_fyodor_kuzmin_died_in_line_at/

 

[theprestige]

That bridgehead seems to have a lot more staying power than I expected. I figured that as soon as it became a nuisance, Moscow would send a BTG, and the Ukrainians would withdraw.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

I expected the bridgehead either to grow or fail. Neither appears to be happening.

It must be an especially dismal part of the front line with the extra stress of having the river at your back constraining how you can move. I'm sure I also read of the Marines' frustration that the bridgehead they secured isn't being exploited by regulars, and wondering why they bothered to capture it.

 

[Aridas]

That bridgehead seems to have a lot more staying power than I expected. I figured that as soon as it became a nuisance, Moscow would send a BTG, and the Ukrainians would withdraw.

I think I was a bit more hopeful, given the unmitigated success of the precursor when it came to the larger goal of degrading the Russian military. Even if they failed to secure enough territory to secure a defensible crossing point, which was reasonably likely, so long as Russian assaults need to get through the artillery cover from the other side of the river, the Russians were going to take very heavy casualties. At that point, it's not a major strategic win, perhaps, but it's definitely a major tactical win.

I was hopeful, too, that Ukraine would manage to secure the bridgehead they needed for a big territory sweep that would cut up Russian logistics and liberate a bunch of territory, but a bit guarded. Russia, of course, was put in a position where they can't really ignore the very real strategic threat that the Ukrainians created. That area is probably the least defensible for the Russians and Russia losing it would likely be a bit catastrophic for their situation as a whole. Russia may be dumb in a bunch of ways, but there was no way that that went unrecognized. Even if it was originally a Ukrainian feint or distraction, it would definitely get out of hand if they didn't respond. So, whether they wanted to or not, they had to strain their logistics even more and fight, however disadvantageous their position. All that hubbub about Ukraine potentially establishing a defensible bridgehead likely increased the pressure to respond, for that matter.

In short, it's pretty much a win-win for Ukraine, once they established control (not an easy task, that). Either they're able to inflict nasty and disproportionate damage on the Russians with the help of artillery that they couldn't really shift to other fronts anyways, advancing their overall strategy of degrading the Russian military or they're able to retake territory, with all the positives that that entails. The latter is, of course, what we'd prefer to see, but the former is also useful.

 

[lobosrul5]

I expected the bridgehead either to grow or fail. Neither appears to be happening.

It must be an especially dismal part of the front line with the extra stress of having the river at your back constraining how you can move. I'm sure I also read of the Marines' frustration that the bridgehead they secured isn't being exploited by regulars, and wondering why they bothered to capture it.

I think Ukraine is waiting on additional aid packages passing Congress before deciding on any major offensives. Without it, they cannot afford any losses. They need to husband all they can for defensive purposes.

 

[Andy_Ross]

I expected the bridgehead either to grow or fail. Neither appears to be happening.

It must be an especially dismal part of the front line with the extra stress of having the river at your back constraining how you can move. I'm sure I also read of the Marines' frustration that the bridgehead they secured isn't being exploited by regulars, and wondering why they bothered to capture it.

Bollocks

 

[Jimbo07]

I think Ukraine is waiting on additional aid packages passing Congress before deciding on any major offensives. Without it, they cannot afford any losses. They need to husband all they can for defensive purposes.

According to several news articles, Ukraine has been scaling back some operations due to a lack of aid.

Like I said, waning Western support isn't for Trump or anything else in the future. It's happening now.

 

[lobosrul5]

According to several news articles, Ukraine has been scaling back some operations due to a lack of aid.

Like I said, waning Western support isn't for Trump or anything else in the future. It's happening now.

Yeah, I'm afraid its not coming from the USA, unless Biden can somehow win next year. The Senate is using the border as an excuse not to fund Ukraine, when in reality its because they know Trump is probably going to be POTUS again and they want to be in his good graces.

Ukraines hope now rests on Europe, and Scholz at least appears to be a staunch supporter. But that is unlikely going to be enough for an offensive, unless the Russian army just completely and totally exhausts itself on idiotic, relentlessly poorly planned and executed assaults... which they appear to be working towards doing.

 

[Doubt]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robert...soldiers-fighting-in-ukraine/?sh=41672d3e3e5d

The actual virus has not been identified. If this was in summer, it would be somewhat understandable. That this is getting worse in winter says the Russians are crapping where they eat. Basic discipline would lead to them keeping their space a bit cleaner to keep rodents away.

 

[a_unique_person]

I think Ukraine is waiting on additional aid packages passing Congress before deciding on any major offensives. Without it, they cannot afford any losses. They need to husband all they can for defensive purposes.

They are short of ammo already. I loathe the so called "freedom" caucus.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Ukraine has suggested that it might wait until 2025 for the next big offensive, once it has all the gear it wants, in particular airborne.

 

[jimbob]

Moscow has already lost. It remains to be seen if Ukraine will win.

I myself am hopeful. Moscow eventually withdrew from Afghanistan. Moscow gave up its Warsaw Pact vassals. Bleed them enough, and I think Moscow must sooner or later give up Ukraine.

The only question is, do you support this happening sooner rather than later?

Moscow withdrew from Afghanistan after far fewer casualties, spread out over a far longer time, from a polity with almost twice the population of current Russia and with a far better control of the media and information.

 

[TragicMonkey]

Moscow withdrew from Afghanistan after far fewer casualties, spread out over a far longer time, from a polity with almost twice the population of current Russia and with a far better control of the media and information.

Sad to say, but national leaders were less crazy back then. That's right, the ******* 1980s, height of the Cold War, two minutes to midnight, jellybeans and Alzheimers and all.

 

[Andy_Ross]

The Russian defence ministry is saying that Ukraine had used air-launched missiles to attack Feodosia and that the “Novocherkassk” large landing ship had been damaged in the raid.

Looking at the pictures being posted online it's been completely destroyed.

Ukraine’s military has said it has destroyed a Russian landing ship stationed in the Crimean port city of Feodosia using Storm Shadow missiles.

BBC video of huge explosion after missile strike.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-67822919

That's another port the Russians have lost.

In a separate news, the Ukrainian military said it had shot down five Russian fighter jets in three days, which, if confirmed, would mark one of the biggest weekly losses for the Russian air force since the war began.