Cont: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 8

[Dr.Sid]

We had 300k like 1 month back ? Now we're nearing 350k. That's indeed astonishing.

 

[The Don]

We had 300k like 1 month back ? Now we're nearing 350k. That's indeed astonishing.

Another 10 million and Putin might even consider it noteworthy.

 

[lobosrul5]

Another 10 million and Putin might even consider it noteworthy.

Putin won't notice that, because he'll either be long since defenestrated, or partying up in UAE well before Russia hits 10 mil casualties.

You think Russia can absorb casualties that are a third of their male military age population?!

 

[theprestige]

Putin was already noting the need for desperate conscription measures a year ago, long before reaching these recent casualty milestones.

 

[Aridas]

Last I heard, roughly half of Russia's military budget is currently being used to try to attract bodies for the meat grinders. That's quite the burden and it's one that's only been increasing as things get worse and worse for Russia in Ukraine. Either way, if Ukraine can weather this Russian offensive with Russia gaining as little and as slowly as Russia has been, that does help set conditions for Ukraine to make notable gains as the Russian assault peters out.

 

[HansMustermann]

In Nam, US troops often, perhaps usually in some areas, rode on top of M113s, using sandbags for some degree of protection. This was due chiefly to the danger of mines.

Vietnam war started in '55, Korea started in '50, the BMP-1 didn't even start service until '66. So yeah, you find previous doctrines before the IFV is even invented

it's like saying, but, hey, they didn't use airplanes in the Franco-Prussian war

Well, d'oh

 

[The Don]

Putin won't notice that, because he'll either be long since defenestrated, or partying up in UAE well before Russia hits 10 mil casualties.

You think Russia can absorb casualties that are a third of their male military age population?!

No, the 10 million figure was hyperbole on my part but 2 or 3 million maybe.

Then again the Soviet Union had more than double the 10 million in total casualties (including civilians) and the Russians consider that a great victory.

Either way, Russia has 10+ years more operating at these loss levels IMO before there's even a squeak of protest.

 

[The Don]

Last I heard, roughly half of Russia's military budget is currently being used to try to attract bodies for the meat grinders. That's quite the burden and it's one that's only been increasing as things get worse and worse for Russia in Ukraine.

Which means that they will have to find more cost-effective ways of recruiting. One way would be to expand conscription (and allow conscripts to serve in the New Russia), another would be to ramp up the sense that Russia is under immediate threat from the West and that it's every loyal Russian's duty to serve - as they did in the Great Patriotic War.

How successful these efforts might be is a good question.

Either way, if Ukraine can weather this Russian offensive with Russia gaining as little and as slowly as Russia has been, that does help set conditions for Ukraine to make notable gains as the Russian assault peters out.

Very possibly, then again pundits have ben saying essentially the same thing for well over a year, that Russia is punching itself out against the Ukrainian defence and that as a result, Ukraine will soon have excellent offensive opportunities - I hope it turns out that way, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

No, the 10 million figure was hyperbole on my part but 2 or 3 million maybe.

Then again the Soviet Union had more than double the 10 million in total casualties (including civilians) and the Russians consider that a great victory.

Either way, Russia has 10+ years more operating at these loss levels IMO before there's even a squeak of protest.

Well considering that Russian front line troops are cuurently equvalent of thr Volksturm units of the Battle of Berlin, 2 million is a massive exaggeration.

PS the USSR's losses in WW2 mostly happened amomgst the subjugated peoples of Ukraine, eastern Poland and the Baltic states. Outside of St Petersburg and Volgagrad ethnic Russians suffered very light casualties.

 

[The Don]

Well considering that Russian front line troops are cuurently equvalent of thr Volksturm units of the Battle of Berlin, 2 million is a massive exaggeration.

PS the USSR's losses in WW2 mostly happened amomgst the subjugated peoples of Ukraine, eastern Poland and the Baltic states. Outside of St Petersburg and Volgagrad ethnic Russians suffered very light casualties.

Russia seems to be following the same pattern with a disproportionate number of combatants and casualties from ethnic minorities and/or remote oblasts

 

[Doubt]

Well considering that Russian front line troops are cuurently equvalent of thr Volksturm units of the Battle of Berlin, 2 million is a massive exaggeration.

PS the USSR's losses in WW2 mostly happened amomgst the subjugated peoples of Ukraine, eastern Poland and the Baltic states. Outside of St Petersburg and Volgagrad ethnic Russians suffered very light casualties.

According to Wikipedia, the Russians themselves were about half the casualties. By percentage of the regional population the 5 other Soviet republics suffered worse than the Russians.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties_of_the_Soviet_Union

 

[Aridas]

Something of a side note related to a while ago, but still of relevance -

Here’s the critical sentence from that declassified report. “[redacted] 2022, Russian military officials proposed delaying the Russian withdrawal from Kherson until after the midterms to avoid giving a named US political party a perceived win before the election.”

And, indeed -

Finally, on Nov. 8, everything seemed to happen at once. Reports of Russia’s retreat seemed to be coming in by the minute. They were gone from one position, fleeing from another, and often leaving equipment behind in their haste to depart. What happened on that day that finally delivered the final straw to this long-suffering camel? Nov. 8 was Election Day in the United States.

Not only did Russian forces go tumbling back from their positions on Nov. 8, but one day later, Russia officially announced that it was withdrawing from Kherson city and the area west of the Dnipro River.

That does help clarify some questions from back then, really.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

According to Wikipedia, the Russians themselves were about half the casualties. By percentage of the regional population the 5 other Soviet republics suffered worse than the Russians.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties_of_the_Soviet_Union

There's no ethnic breakdown in that link. There are and were an awful lot of non-Russians living in Russia, for instance the many muslim steppe groups living in the south around the Caucasus and the steppes.

 

[a_unique_person]

How many prisoners did the Russian prison system have? What happens to all the empty prisons?

 

[Mike!]

I can't imagine they'd leave them empty for long.

 

[Jimbo07]

I can't imagine they'd leave them empty for long.

I mean, there must be enough artists, journalists, protestors, soldiers' wives and so forth that they can fill them with.

 

[sackett]

??

Vietnam war started in '55, Korea started in '50, the BMP-1 didn't even start service until '66. So yeah, you find previous doctrines before the IFV is even invented

it's like saying, but, hey, they didn't use airplanes in the Franco-Prussian war

Well, d'oh

??

I was just pointing out the threat that mines pose to infantry transporters.

Dunno why the snarky tone, but we all indulge in that sometimes. A widely shared character defect.

 

[William Parcher]

Is either side winning this war?

 

[theprestige]

Is either side winning this war?

Moscow has already lost. It remains to be seen if Ukraine will win.

I myself am hopeful. Moscow eventually withdrew from Afghanistan. Moscow gave up its Warsaw Pact vassals. Bleed them enough, and I think Moscow must sooner or later give up Ukraine.

The only question is, do you support this happening sooner rather than later?

 

[Aridas]

Moscow has already lost. It remains to be seen if Ukraine will win.

I myself am hopeful. Moscow eventually withdrew from Afghanistan. Moscow gave up its Warsaw Pact vassals. Bleed them enough, and I think Moscow must sooner or later give up Ukraine.

The only question is, do you support this happening sooner rather than later?

It also depends somewhat on what one is actually calling winning, too. In the beginning, there was the widespread expectation that Ukraine would fall entirely in short order to Russia's mighty military. A long time later, Russia's only managed to hold onto some of what it gained early on and is ever increasingly hard pressed to even hold onto that, so they're trying to cut off Ukraine's foreign aid by using underhanded tactics to try to manipulate policymakers in Ukraine's allies.

Ukraine's overwhelmingly exceeded expectations in practice and Russia's overwhelmingly underperformed. Ukraine's military has largely been becoming stronger and better equipped, while Russia's military is being slaughtered and their equipment and stockpiles are being run out. That's certainly grounds to say that Ukraine's winning and Russia's losing. A final victory is far from certain, though.