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Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 7

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Myriad said:
Putin has defiantly claimed that his government is "forged of the strong titanium of loyalty, bonded to the resilient carbon fiber of patriotism, capable of resisting any amount of pressure."
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I guess what with the sanctions he needs whatever sponsorship he can get. "Our facilities are as secure as your identity online with Nord VPN!"
 
Jack by the hedge said:
That is curious indeed. What air support doing?
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Perogy Prigozihn reported control of four airbases in the Rostov area. He claims that the aircraft will still be used to support the Ru troops in Russia, but can no longer be used against his forces and will not be used by his forces in this assault towards Moscow. That was 12 hours ago, he might have control of more now, I gather there are some in the Voroezh area and he also had troops moving towards Krasnodar and Volgagrad.

His guys also seem to have shot down a number of aircraft and brought good anti-aircraft equipment along with them.

It's not clear if Putin can pull forces from Ukraine to fight with. Wagner now controls most of the Ukr/Ru border and the main highway approaching Moscow from the south. And if events are any indicator, many of the Ru troops in Ukraine support Wagner anyway.

Doubt said:
Liveuamap shows a Wagner convoy North of a town called Yelets.
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200 miles from Moscow.

I feel like I am 18 years old again, watching the Berlin Wall come down. This is time people will remember. (It is vastly less positive than the fall of the wall. This time it is two mass-murderers fighting for control of what will always be a powerful nation. But the world significance has parallels).
 
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crescent said:
Perogy Prigozihn reported control of four airbases in the Rostov area. He claims that the aircraft will still be used to support the Ru troops in Russia, but can no longer be used against his forces and will not be used by his forces in this assault towards Moscow.

His guys also seem to have shot down a number of aircraft and brought good anti-aircraft equipment along with them.

It's not clear if Putin can pull forces from Ukraine to fight with. Wagner now controls most of the Ukr/Ru border and the main highway approaching Moscow from the south. And if events are any indicator, many of the Ru troops in Ukraine support Wagner anyway.



200 miles from Moscow.

I feel like I am 18 years old again, watching the Berlin Wall come down. This is time people will remember. (It is vastly less positive than the fall of the wall. This time it is two mass-murderers fighting for control of what will always be a powerful nation. But the world significance has parallels).
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Barring the atom bombs, Russia is not a powerful nation anymore.
 
What Ukraine really needs is for this seeming shambles on the Russian side to turn out to be a genuine shambles. If it plays out too one-sided (in either direction) it may be over and done with before there's much benefit to Ukraine.

Prigozhyn wants to beat Ukraine perhaps even more than Putin does.
 
Kasparov sums it up pretty well:



Having been defeated repeatedly by Ukraine, Russian forces have found an easier opponent, one with corrupt leadership, incompetent commanders, and low morale.

Few if any are rooting for war criminal Prigozhin to replace war criminal Putin. But chaos is opportunity for change while the status quo is war and terror. It means fewer resources directed against Ukraine. Whatever the result in Russia, the regime will be weaker.

You cannot expect a liberal democracy to suddenly bloom in a dictatorship desert. It’s all rats, snakes, and scorpions. All you can hope for is opportunity for change where currently there is none. Leverage shifts, light gets in through cracks.

Russians have been fighting for nothing but the imperial delusions of a dictator and the monumental avarice of his mafia. Ukraine's bravery has exposed it all and it's literally and figuratively coming home.

Dictatorships are hard but brittle; one crack can shatter. Putin brutally repressed even our smallest opposition because he understood that any perception of weakness was fatal. His ability to hide the consequences of war from his elites is now over.

Putin's instincts are always to kill, including Russians. But will soldiers who fought in Ukraine and the amateur home guards obey and fire on Prigozhin's seasoned forces? The words of the generals who benefit from the mafia do not decide this.

There's no chain of command in Russia, no responsibility, and the media is waiting for orders that don't come. An armed convoy is en route to the capital and there's nothing but drivel because Putin knows violence will spread panic among a population he tells everything is fine.

the 1917 parallels are correct, but also a replica of Mussolini's march on Rome in 1922. It's not just a lost war, it's a long war going badly. Now soldiers from poor regions see the elites not fighting, living in luxury, on their mobile.
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Prigozihn has stated that Ru losses in Ukraine are 3-4x what has been reported. One way of the other, that information will now get through to the Ru public.

Like in the U.S. after the Tet Offensive, that could have caused a catastrophic loss of support for the war even in the absence if this mutiny. One way or the other, Putin comes out of this much weaker - if he comes out of this at all.
 
zooterkin said:
I guess it’s good for Ukraine in the short term, but in the event the Prigozhin should succeed in a coup, might he want to prove a point and show it should have been done?
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Probably the biggest worry with Prigozhen is that he would be dumb enough to try to use nukes. That's not at all a certainty, of course. Other than that, Russia may have already committed virtually all (I've seen claims of 97%) of their relevant military capability to Ukraine, so the "show it how it should have been done" worry, strategically, is probably pretty negligible.

Andy_Ross said:
No, they need to keep the pressure on.
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Indeed. While Prigozhen's move is quite eye-catching, Prigozhen is not at all Ukraine's ally, given his rhetoric. It's possible that things are different in secret, but we can't reasonably assume that they are. Thus, Ukraine's best served by just continuing to do what they've been doing - occupying and breaking the remains of the Russian army and reclaiming territory as they seek a really weak spot to use to break the camel's back again.

ohms said:
Kadyrov’s Chechen forces are pretty close to Rostov. Things are about to get even uglier.
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All those Tiktok pictures can be pretty ugly, I suppose.

Andy_Ross said:
Russian air force conspicuous by it's absence. Are they waiting to see who's going to come out on top of have they already gone over?
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Have they properly been given orders and are they in a position to actually function and act? I don't think either of those things is at all certain, in the current chaos.
 
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Aridas said:
Thus, Ukraine's best served by just continuing to do what they've been doing - occupying and breaking the remains of the Russian army and reclaiming territory as they seek a really weak spot to use to break the camel's back again.
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Ukr appears to have crossed the Dnipro river at the remains of the Antonivka bridge in Kherson. They have ferried some tanks across.
 
Prigo seems to be stronger then most experts though.
Scary thing he would be worse in power then Putin, hard as that might be to believe.
 
dudalb said:
The Night of the Long Knives 2 is upon us. Prigo will end up like Rohm.
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He had to move.

On Thursday I was saying on Twitter that lots of Russian military actions make more sense if you remember that the physical threats to the leadersares the other leaders
 
dudalb said:
Prigo seems to be stronger then most experts though.
Scary thing he would be worse in power then Putin, hard as that might be to believe.
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He would want to be.

But for Ukraine, he wouldn't be as he'd not have it easy and Russia could easily break up once the present strongman is out of the picture
 
If most people with an actual will to fight are either in Ukraine or at Wagner, this might just turn out like Kabul.

Chaos in Russia sounds nice, but long-term this could be even worse.
 
Olmstead said:
If most people with an actual will to fight are either in Ukraine or at Wagner, this might just turn out like Kabul.

Chaos in Russia sounds nice, but long-term this could be even worse.
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Of course it could be worse. It's worth acknowledging that it could end up better, though, too, including with both Putin and Prigozhen out of the picture. Even if Prigozhen deposed Putin, Prigozhen is unlikely to have or be able to wield power as well as Putin did, after all, so it'd hardly be a surprise for him to end up poisoned by an unhappy oligarch or otherwise lose power because he's blamed for Russia losing big in Ukraine.
 
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