Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 7

[dudalb]

The Night of the Long Knives 2 is upon us. Prigo will end up like Rohm.

 

[dudalb]

This is a "get yo popcorn ready" type development if true. I cannot see how Russia will not be forced to take troops of the line to defend, or take back Rostov. Its a very important city for logistical and C&C purposes.

Any idea what type of weapons Wagner has in their columns? If they have tanks, APC, artillery, then the FSB defending Rostov are going to be totally outmatched.

Won't be the first time Rostov was fought over:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Rostov_(1941)

And yet another name from the Great Patriotic War makes the news again...
Though I don't think Prigo has a chance.

 

[Andy_Ross]

The FSB has released a statement aimed at Members of the Wagner Group urging them not to carry out “Criminal and Dangerous Orders by Yevgeny Prigozhin and to assist the Russian Armed Forces and FSB in Apprehending him alongside other Wagner Commanders.”

 

[dudalb]

The FSB has released a statement aimed at Members of the Wagner Group urging them not to carry out “Criminal and Dangerous Orders by Yevgeny Prigozhin and to assist the Russian Armed Forces and FSB in Apprehending him alongside other Wagner Commanders.”

To keep up the Night of the Long Knives comparasion:

FSB equals SS
Wagner Group equals SA
Prigo equal Rohm
And, although hoping the FSB can do the dirty work, the Russian Generals will move against Prigo if necessary.

 

[lobosrul5]

To keep up the Night of the Long Knives comparasion:

FSB equals SS
Wagner Group equals SA
Prigo equal Rohm
And, although hoping the FSB can do the dirty work, the Russian Generals will move against Prigo if necessary.

This will probably be 100x more deadly than The Night of the Long Knives, and Germany wasn't basically at war with half the world in 1934.

What do Wagnerites get if the surrender? Put in a trench til they are eventually killed by Ukrainians or blocking troops.

 

[Oystein]

WarTranslated has translated a bit more of Surovikin's message:
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672357331663765504

I have just returned by the order of the Ministry of Defence from the zero line, where our forces, our commanders, our soldiers, volunteers carry out the objective, fighting the superior enemy forces to death, take casualties, but stand on their positions.

I appeal to the leadership, commanders and fighters of PMC Wagner: Together with you, we walked a difficult path. Together with you, we fought, we took risks, we took losses, but overcome together. We are of the same blood. We are warriors.

I call on you to stop. The enemy is waiting for our internal political situation to aggravate. We shouldn’t play into the enemy’s hand in this difficult time for the country."

It needs to be done before it’s too late: to obey the will and order of the people-elected President of the Russian Federation. Stop the columns, and return them to their permanent positions and places of concentration.

To solve all problems with civil means only under the leadership of the Supreme Commander of the Russian Armed Forces.

Aha!
So there he alludes to the "order" of Putin.
So, we should be waiting for Putin to personally order all Wagner members to stop and submit.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Except in this case "Rohm" got tipped off rather than caught with his pants down, and has decided to go on the offensive.

 

[Doubt]

Unless Wagner has a private source of supplies, they will end up on the wrong end of this.

We probably won't see anything since logistics only makes news once they run out of things. But Fuel here is the first problem.

 

[Jimbo07]

We probably won't see anything since logistics only makes news once they run out of things. But Fuel here is the first problem.

They're moving into Russia, so... Steal it? Like, literally, take diesel from gas stations.

 

[Doubt]

They're moving into Russia, so... Steal it? Like, literally, take diesel from gas stations.

If the columns are as big as claimed they won't have enough.

If I was in the FSB higher ups and I wanted to stop them I would be working to contaminate any fuel source along the way to Moscow.

 

[dudalb]

This will probably be 100x more deadly than The Night of the Long Knives, and Germany wasn't basically at war with half the world in 1934.

What do Wagnerites get if the surrender? Put in a trench til they are eventually killed by Ukrainians or blocking troops.

Which is why I think Prigo's troops will desert. They are Mercs, mercs are not known for their loyalty. 'No Money, No Swiss".

 

[dudalb]

Unless Wagner has a private source of supplies, they will end up on the wrong end of this.

We probably won't see anything since logistics only makes news once they run out of things. But Fuel here is the first problem.

Also, Wagner group has no Air Force, Putin does, and the Russian Army regular Generals hate Prigo are a rival.They might not love Putin, but hey like Prigo even l ess.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Unless Wagner has a private source of supplies, they will end up on the wrong end of this.

We probably won't see anything since logistics only makes news once they run out of things. But Fuel here is the first problem.

He will resupply with captured stores.

 

[Doubt]

He will resupply with captured stores.

Or not. Most of my experience own experience with Russian highways was on the road between Moscow and Yaroslavl. There just are not that many stations. These are not like US interstates or the Autobahn. There are only so many stations along the two lane highways between the cities.

 

[jeremyp]

Why would the EU do anything like that?

You know what it means when somebody puts "/s" in a message?

 

[Oystein]

Where are actual images of Wagner columns rolling in force?
Where is Putin?

Rumor that Surovikin and others are under arrest, and that he made his statement against his will. This would explain the lack of enthusiasm, which I had previously attributed to great fatigue and/or alcohol.

 

[Doubt]

Back to the maps and the counter offensive. For now anyway. The Pro-Ukraian maps I usually look at have not been updating much lately. Could be a good thing but not sure.

I have seen reports of the drive on Tokmak reaching Robotyne. The only map showing this is the liaveuamap.com one. Comparing that map to the ISW map shows there are defensive positions at Robotyne and at the next town down the road from it. But these are not the actual first defensive line. All of the actions in the south are still happening before that line.

This might be a good thing for Ukraine. If they can keep bleeding the Russians dry in front of the main defensive line they they might not have so much left to actually populate that line when they have to use it. The recent fun and games with Wagner won't help with re-enforcement and supply.

 

[sackett]

OT! OT! Flush that stash!

Except in this case "Rohm" got tipped off rather than caught with his pants down, and has decided to go on the offensive.

The Schickelgruber Saga tells that Röhm was caught in his bath by a VERY handsome young SS officer with a pistol, and that Kleine Ernst said to him, "Don't be afraid. Aim carefully."

Not bad last words. Wonder how they'd sound in Russian?

 

[Andy_Ross]

Nothing says "we're winning" like having your military blocking the roads in your own capital.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Putin should announce a Special Military Operation to defend Russians from invading Russians.