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Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 7

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Jimbo07 said:
Well, assuming this is even legit, there's this line:



As before, it's not about being against the war, it's about not killing enough Ukrainians fast enough! It's about Wagner not getting ammunition for their own glory. None of this is about anyone being nice guys!

That said, if Wagner does start fighting Russian regulars, will there be sufficient munitions when it's all over to return to the front? Will the front exist?

ETA: probably legit. It's moved out of Twitter and onto CNN rolling that he's accusing Russia of striking one of his camps. Russia denies this, of course.
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Its almost certainly legit in the sense that Prigozhin said it. There is, I suppose, a slight chance thats its some sort of ruse but for what purpose I cannot really fathom. Make Ukraine overconfident so they commit their main forces, only for it to be a trap? Seems crazy by even Russian standards.

And yeah no one should be thinking this guy or Wagner are good guys, but if they fight and defeat the Russian Army (and even I don't think thats plausible), they'll be greatly weakened.
 
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I remember seeing a new order last week that contractors and released prisoners have to all sign contract with the army. So either Wagner men sign up or if they don't then they aren't getting any more fodder anyway.
 
My first take:
Putin has Prighozin setting up Shoigu to take the fall for the whole debacle.

Possibly giving himself an out from the war, saying he was mislead by Shoigu. Prighozin kills Shoigu so noone to testify.
 
More from Twitter:

Yevgeny Prigozhin has now released a statement saying, “This is not a Military Coup. This is a March and a Wish for Justice. Russian Soldiers do not need to be worry because we will not Interfere with them.”
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I suspect this will turn out to be a lot of noise about nothing but we will see.
 
Ukrainian "Bakhmut Demon" ��:

"The leftovers of Wagners on the outskirts of Bakhmut opened fire on the regular roads of the Russian Federation.

Our assault brigades see everything, systematic strikes are now being carried out on the positions of the Russians.

You would hear the radio broadcast of these *** now.

The impression is that part of the Russian regular troops are killing their own, and it seems that part of the military is supporting Prigozhin. While it is not clear what is finally happening, it is a bloodbath"

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672329674729373696?cxt=HHwWgIC2mdK-p7UuAAAA

I think that guy is known for being a trustworthy source.
 
Jimbo07 said:
Well, assuming this is even legit, there's this line:



As before, it's not about being against the war, it's about not killing enough Ukrainians fast enough! It's about Wagner not getting ammunition for their own glory. None of this is about anyone being nice guys!

That said, if Wagner does start fighting Russian regulars, will there be sufficient munitions when it's all over to return to the front? Will the front exist?

ETA: probably legit. It's moved out of Twitter and onto CNN rolling that he's accusing Russia of striking one of his camps. Russia denies this, of course.
Click to expand...

Crazy rumors going on in the twittersphere right now. All bunk, probably - reality is rarely ever as exciting as rumors.
1: Shoigu has left the country
2: Wagner and some regular Ru troops attacking other Ru troops near Bakhmut
3: Ru national guard activated and armed

Here's a live news feed from Russian TV:

 
crescent said:
Crazy rumors going on in the twittersphere right now. All bunk, probably - reality is rarely ever as exciting as rumors.
1: Shoigu has left the country
2: Wagner and some regular Ru troops attacking other Ru troops near Bakhmut
3: Ru national guard activated and armed

Here's a live news feed from Russian TV:

Click to expand...

We'll be getting drone footage of Russia on Russia fighting within a day if its true.
 
ohms said:
Statement supposedly released by Prigozhin saying Wagner are moving on the Russian Ministry of Defense:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672314259907158028

If true, I have no idea where this is going to go.
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Jimbo07 said:
Well, assuming this is even legit, there's this line:



As before, it's not about being against the war, it's about not killing enough Ukrainians fast enough! It's about Wagner not getting ammunition for their own glory. None of this is about anyone being nice guys!

That said, if Wagner does start fighting Russian regulars, will there be sufficient munitions when it's all over to return to the front? Will the front exist?

ETA: probably legit. It's moved out of Twitter and onto CNN rolling that he's accusing Russia of striking one of his camps. Russia denies this, of course.
Click to expand...

I think Prigozhin may be reasoning his way through some of the same stuff I've been thinking about.

There's a possibility that the current Moscow regime may collapse over the Ukrainian debacle. There's a possibility that the government may fracture into competing camps of warlords and their private armies. There's a possibility that the next Tsar of Muscovy may be the warlord who's best able to convince NATO and the EU (or perhaps just the Oligarchs of Muscovy) that he can reliably safeguard Moscow's nuclear arsenal. So Prigozhin may be trying to position himself for a shot at that brass ring.
 
mutiny does tend to happen in Russian wars, because Russia is so horrible to its soldiers.
 
Report from Russian state propaganda media Sputnik says, FSB opened criminal investigation against Prigozhin, accusing him of calling for a coup.
 
The Danish newspaper has an article today written by a Latvian commentator named Lev Kadik: Russisk politolog: Første fase af regimets fald er i gang
It is in Danish, and probably behind a paywall anyway, but I’ll give you some highlights.
The title is “First phase of the fall of the Russian regime has started”. Kadik claims that Putin has lost touch with what is happening, and his supporters and government officials are unsure what is happening, and many are reporting sick to avoid taking decisions that could backfire later.
Apparently, Putin has made some embarrassing TV appearances where he has shown that he has no knowledge of how the war is going. Also, well-known hawk, Konstantin Satulin, has said on TV that Russia cannot achieve its war goals, because Ukraine cannot be demilitarised, or destroyed. The moderator tried in vain to stop him, but Satulin has repeated his statements on other shows, all without getting punished.

Russian officials are beginning to contact colleagues that were fired for disagreeing with the war policy.

China has snubbed Russia by letting a minor figure meet the Russian prime minister Misjustin on an official meeting in Beijing, so although China is friendly, they also keep the Russians at a certain distance and hedges the bets.
 
Apparently OMON Riot police have surrounded Wagner PMC headquarters in Molkino. Wagner troops have taken defensive positions. This base is shared with GRU 10th Separate Special Purpose Brigade. Guess which side they're on?
 
steenkh said:
Also, well-known hawk, Konstantin Satulin, has said on TV that Russia cannot achieve its war goals, because Ukraine cannot be demilitarised, or destroyed.
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That one I take with a grain of salt. It seems customary in Moscow's propaganda TV shows for one person to express dissent from the party line, so that it can then be properly dismissed by the regime mouthpiece(s). A sort of "controlled burn" to make the public feel like their doubts are being considered. Without further details about this particular case, I kind of assume that's what's going on here.
 
Prigozhin has variously said that he considers Putin to be his supreme commander and that he would obey any order from Putin.
I am not aware of Putin having issued any order to Prigozhin, at least none to the effect that he should sign those contracts with the MoD, submit to Shoigu, shut up or whatever. Why does Putin not order a clear, public order? That woud either restore order at once (if Prigozhin obeys), or make it obvious to ever Russian that Prigozhin is the traitor, the defector, and thus deserving of death.
Possible answers:
  • Putin does not know enough about the situation to see the need to give such an order
  • Somehow, the beef between Wagner and the MoD plays into Putins own personal game (which is, most likely, regime survival), perhaps by damaging both rivals
  • Putin no longer is in control and either is prevented from giving such an order, or has given an order, but it has been prevented from being communicated by someone actually in control
  • The whole drama is just a show played for gullible audiences; perhaps with different messages or doses of messages delivered to different audiences. I mean, is Wagner really as important, as relevant, as we are made to believe? Prigozhin claims to have 25,000 men, but he has also lost that many men, and that many men have left Wagner (supposedly) after having fulfilled their contracts etc etc... I think Wagner is in Russia might be down to 10,000 or 15,000, max
(I am obviously brainstorming here)

I just realize I should not type so long on posts this big, lest I miss a few tweets and latest developments that make all my thoughts an obsolete part of the past.
 
Ukraine Reporter are saying Russian sources report that 2 Wagner military convoys that are each dozens of kilometers long are heading into Rostov from Russian-occupied Ukraine (Donetsk). Russian border guards are letting them through even though the border was ordered closed.
 
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Andy_Ross said:
Ukraine Reporter saying Russian sources report that 2 Wagner military convoys that are each dozens of kilometers long are heading into Rostov from Russian-occupied Ukraine (Donetsk). Russian border guards are letting them through even though the border was ordered closed.
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https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1672361098643755012

@sentdefender said:
General of the Russian Army and Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces, Sergey Surovikin has called on Wagner Commanders to, “Stop the Columns and return their Forces to the Points of Permanent Deployment” with this statement indicating that Wagner Forces may be on the move towards Moscow.
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Swap "Moscow" for "Rostov" and this fits the image.
General Surovikin is the guy who was top commander of the invasion forces last year and organized the successful, orderly retreat from Cherson city and the right bank, before being demoted and replaced by Gerasimov. One of the few that Prigozhin respects because he is actually rather competent.
 
Andy_Ross said:
Ukraine Reporter are saying Russian sources report that 2 Wagner military convoys that are each dozens of kilometers long are heading into Rostov from Russian-occupied Ukraine (Donetsk). Russian border guards are letting them through even though the border was ordered closed.
Click to expand...

This is a "get yo popcorn ready" type development if true. I cannot see how Russia will not be forced to take troops of the line to defend, or take back Rostov. Its a very important city for logistical and C&C purposes.

Any idea what type of weapons Wagner has in their columns? If they have tanks, APC, artillery, then the FSB defending Rostov are going to be totally outmatched.
 
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