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Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 6

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A guide to the consequences if Russia had waltzed into Ukraine without Western resistance.
Had the Russian plan been carried out as it was written, Kyiv would have been conquered in just a few days. Zelensky, his wife, and his children would have been murdered by one of the hit squads that roamed the capital city. The Ukrainian state would have been taken over by the collaborators who had already chosen their Kyiv apartments. Then, city by city, region by region, the Russian army would have fought the remnants of the Ukrainian army until it finally conquered the entire country. Originally, the Russian general staff imagined that this victory would require six weeks.

Had all of that happened as planned, Ukraine would now be pockmarked with the concentration camps, torture chambers, and makeshift prisons that have been discovered in Bucha, Izyum, Kherson, and all the other territories temporarily occupied by Russia and liberated by the Ukrainian army. A generation of Ukrainian writers, artists, politicians, journalists, and civic leaders would already be buried in mass graves. Ukrainian books would have been removed from schools and libraries. The Ukrainian language would have been suppressed in all public spaces. Hundreds of thousands more Ukrainian children would have been kidnapped and transported to Russia or trafficked farther around the world.
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https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/a...ky-congress-speech-us-ukraine-support/672547/
 
Oystein said:
The latest from the Ruscist MOD is that they plan to expand the number of their core, profesional troups as well as their reserve, conscripted forces each by something like 40% or more. This of course has to be understood as implying that military equipment/production/procurement will increase by similar percentages. In fact, Putin said the other day that there is no limit to the amount of money he is willing to spend on this war (and the next, and the next).

The obvious problem with such "plans" is of course that Russia lacks the economic resources to sustain such expansions of the military-industrial complex: It lacked many resources before February 24th [*], and has lost huge resources since due to sanctions, brain drain, and the simple fact that too many young men are sent to fight instead of to be productive.

Which means the Russian population will come to feel hardships and poverty and loss of resources more and more in coming years. Which breaks the unwritten deal Putin has with his population - that he can rule forever and play czar in exchange for ordinary Russians enjoying a time of modest rise of wealth and being left alone by the traditionally oppressive state.

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[*] Then, sheer money and the ability to procure were not much of a bottleneck thanks to high prices for fossil fuels and the subsequent ability to fill up a nice war chest; but technological and industrial know-how, a qualified and young/creative workforce, etc were already in short supply
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Of course, at this stage having one professional soldier would be an infinite% increase for Russia's armed forces.
 
Sounds to me that none of Russia's goals to improve its fighting capabilities can be implemented fast enough to have any impact in the current conflict.
 
sackett said:
Oystein is entirely right about Russia's material and social disadvantages. But Putin's regime possesses one distinct strength: utter ruthlessness. This is not the bestial, lunatic cruelty of the nazis. This is the cold determination of the Mongols, and as pointless.

A subservient nation like Russia will endure a great deal, even while being militarily defeated, before it rebels. This war is not as political as some, and it must be won on the battlefield.

That's why I believe in the magic of lock and load.
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The war can’t be won on the battlefield. Even if Russia gets pushed back to its own borders, unless it says “I give up” - a political act - the war will continue but with Ukraine being at the distinct disadvantage of not being able to push into Russia.

I think the war will continue as long as the a Russian leadership has the will to continue it or is deposed. The latter is not impossible - it’s happened before.
 
sackett said:
But Putin's regime possesses one distinct strength: utter ruthlessness.
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Ooh don't forget the other three strengths: fear, surprise, almost fanatical devotion to the Patriarch, and nice green uniforms
 
jeremyp said:
The war can’t be won on the battlefield. Even if Russia gets pushed back to its own borders, unless it says “I give up” - a political act - the war will continue but with Ukraine being at the distinct disadvantage of not being able to push into Russia.

I think the war will continue as long as the a Russian leadership has the will to continue it or is deposed. The latter is not impossible - it’s happened before.
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A push-back to pre-2014 borders would greatly help to convince some Russians that Putin is very much the wrong man to command this ailing ship.
As for fear that a successor might be even worse: any successor will be hampered by the same very limited economy, and the prospect that long-term enmity with the West will guarantee it stays that way.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
Sounds to me that none of Russia's goals to improve its fighting capabilities can be implemented fast enough to have any impact in the current conflict.
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Not only that, but all the resources poured into the process will first br plundered by Putin's circle of oligarch 'friends', and whatever is left will be filtered through several layers of thieves taking whatever they can get away with (which is usually a lot, because the overseers aren't looking to catch anyone, they just want their cut). And Putin can't really do anything to this terminally corrupt system, because it's precisely this system that keeps him in place.
 
Gulliver Foyle said:
Ukraine had sucessfully defended Kyiv by the time Western aid started pourijg in to the country. Where Western arms has really helped is in the counter-offensive.
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Yup

Beau of the Fifth Column produced a video on this, pointing out that Russia would have big problems trying to hold Ukraine.

 
Oystein said:
A push-back to pre-2014 borders would greatly help to convince some Russians that Putin is very much the wrong man to command this ailing ship.
As for fear that a successor might be even worse: any successor will be hampered by the same very limited economy, and the prospect that long-term enmity with the West will guarantee it stays that way.
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Also true.

Any successor will at first want to strengthen his (I don't think any women are potential successors) position and stopping the running ulcer of the war and blaming his rivals for betrayal would be one way.

Possibly attacking Putin's reputation as well.



Mind you Gary Kasparov is more blunt.

https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1604895417174564870?s=20&t=ns8YdlaqMXs-ZucR8TvsiA

Garry Kasparov
@Kasparov63
This is the message Russians must receive and understand, like it or not. Russian military defeat in Ukraine is not enough. Putin's exit is not enough. For Russia to become a real nation, its people must atone for its crimes, as we failed to do for Soviet ones.
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theprestige said:
Russia still has some functional troops. Russia still has some functional tanks. Russia still has some functional aircraft, some functional cruise missiles. Still has some functional ships. Ukraine is still having to fight very hard for the gains it's making.

I think it's safe to assume that Russia still has some functional nukes, and could still escalate with those.
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Okay but the Russians keep threatening to escalate and they don't. All they do; all they can do is throw more manpower into the quagmire. If Russia attacks NATO, they know we can escalate too. There's a strong disincentive to widen the war.
 
Putin accidentally called the "special military operation" a war. Oops. Doesn't he know that's a crime?
 
The idea that Putin is carrying out Stalin era orders, where he needs blocking brigades, seems impossible.

Stalin's orders were somewhat based in reality considering the Germans were pushing the Soviets back to nearly Moscow, the fact that an attacking force today, needs to utilize these tactics tells a different story.

Can anyone give me force sizes in the area of Bahkmut?

While it is being portrayed as a huge battle, which it may be by todays scale, it is still only a skirmish compared to similar types of battles during WW2 on the eastern front.

I can only assume (based on videos and casualty numbers) that the types of fighting i'm seeing are platoon sized engagements? With perhaps a regiment holding the entirety of Bahkmut?

Does that seem like a fair estimate ?
 
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