Swine Flu outbreak

[Skeptic Ginger]

About a month ago a whole lot of my 5th graders got sick. My classroom sounded like an infirmary ward. I got what felt like a mild cold out of it. I thought it was odd because I usually don't see that many sick kids after winter.

Oh, and on Monday, a Hispanic student of mine who speaks no English was very sick. My administrator had a lot of questions about that one. I teach in Southern California and about 65% of my school's population is Hispanic.

A month ago, unless your kids have a connection to La Gloria Mexico, or near there, chances are it was a different virus.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

It's hard to know quite what to make of Henry Niman. He does have the credentials, but has chosen to operate mostly outside of established scientific circles. ....

That's because he's pissed them all off threatening lawsuits for copyright infringement among other things. Be careful quoting his stuff.

 

[Steelmage]

Nonsense. He's full of it. I'll be posting some stuff on the 1976 vaccine later.
Of course.
Analogy:"Similarity in some respects between things that are otherwise dissimilar."
More nonsense but it fits with what Paul and his followers believe so they accept it without evidence.
If by knee jerk you mean I know this stuff well enough to know BS the second I see it, then you're right.

http://www.semp.us/publications/biot_reader.php?BiotID=177

Vaccine was produced, field tested, and evaluated in April, May and June. There were problems with producing the vaccine. Nevertheless, between October 1 and December 16, 1976, the U.S. Public Health Service, through state and local public health department “public sector providers,” rapidly spread out among the citizenry to successfully vaccinate 85% of 40 million voluntary vaccinees in 10 weeks (the other 15% of the 40 million voluntary vaccinees received their vaccinations from “private sector providers”).

Then, on November 21, 1976, a “Minnesota physician reported to his local health authorities a patient who had contracted an ascending paralysis, called Guillain-Barré syndrome, following swine flu immunization. The physician said he had just learned of this possible side-effect from a cassette-tape discussion of flu vaccination prepared for the continuing education of family practitioners by a California specialist. The Minnesota immunization program officer, Denton R. Peterson, dutifully called CDC and spoke to one of the surveillance physicians there. The latter expressed no interest in the single case, but Peterson was sufficiently bothered to conduct a literature search and did indeed discover previous case reports. “We felt we were sitting on a bomb,” he told investigators. Within a week three more cases, one fatal were reported to Peterson. Two came from a single neurologist who remarked that he had observed this complication of flu vaccine during his residency training. More anxious than ever, Peterson again called the CDC, where the surveillance center was just being told by phone of three more cases in Alabama. The next day they learned of an additional case in New Jersey. By then the CDC was taking the problem seriously.” (** pp. 24-25) Still, Sender was not impressed.

The federal government abruptly suspended the NIIP pending analysis of Guillain-Barré cases emerging in the vaccinated population. Eventually, 532 cases of vaccine-related Guillain-Barré syndrome and at least 25 deaths occurred. One CDC official recalled that he had expected side effects upon the nervous system of some vaccinees, but he had no notion on what scale. No one expected a high frequency and no one then explored the policy implications, particularly in the absence of pandemic, which indeed turned out to be exactly the case. CDC research showed that the actual risk for Guillain-Barré was only about 1 in 1,000 among people who had received the vaccine, which was about seven times higher than for people who did not receive the vaccine.***

The vaccine manufacturers had anticipated the potential for serious side effects from the vaccines they manufactured and had insisted on indemnification by the federal government before releasing pandemic vaccine. Harmed vaccinees and their families sued the federal government and eventually received millions of dollars in damages. Sencer was let go as CDC director. Many people faulted him for his dogged pursuit of universal influenza vaccination.

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-1007.htm

Soon, however, NIIP received the first of 2 crippling blows to hopes to immunize "every man, woman, and child." The first was later in 1976, when instead of boxes of bottled vaccine, the vaccine manufacturers delivered an ultimatum—that the federal government indemnify them against claims of adverse reactions as a requirement for release of the vaccines. The government quickly capitulated to industry's demand for indemnification. While the manufacturers' ultimatum reflected the trend of increased litigiousness in American society, its unintended, unmistakable subliminal message blared "There's something wrong with this vaccine." This public misperception, warranted or not, ensured that every coincidental health event that occurred in the wake of the swine flu shot would be scrutinized and attributed to the vaccine.

On August 2, 1976, deaths apparently due to an influenzalike illness were reported from Pennsylvania in older men who had attended the convention of the American Legion in Philadelphia. A combined team of CDC and state and local health workers immediately investigated. By the next day, epidemiologic evidence indicated that the disease was not influenza (no secondary cases occurred in the households of the patients). By August 4, laboratory evidence conclusively ruled out influenza. However, this series of events was interpreted by the media and others as an attempt by the government to "stimulate" NIIP.

Shortly after the national campaign began, 3 elderly persons died after receiving the vaccine in the same clinic. Although investigations found no evidence that the vaccine and deaths were causally related, press frenzy was so intense it drew a televised rebuke from Walter Cronkite for sensationalizing coincidental happenings.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcon...istory_0428gd.ART.State.Edition1.4a55263.html

At the CDC, Sencer solicited the opinions of infectious disease specialists nationwide and, in March, called on President Gerald Ford and Congress to begin mass inoculation. The $137 million program began in early October, but within days reports emerged that the vaccine appeared to increase the risk for Guillain-Barré syndrome, a rare neurological condition that can be fatal.

Waiting in long lines at schools and clinics, more than 40 million Americans, almost 25 percent of the population, received the swine flu vaccine before the program was halted in December.

More than 500 people are thought to have developed Guillain-Barré syndrome after receiving the vaccine, and 25 died.

It seems to me that on this situation he knows what he is talking about.

All the mainstream news is reporting this about the same. With lots of factual errors and misinterpreted data.

No, they are not, this BBC report seems to me to be informative. The news here in the USA, seems to me to be akin to scare tatics.

 

[Foolmewunz]

Considering the last swine flu vaccine killed more people than the flu itself, I'll take my chances without it.

I believe this is more myth than fact.

 

[Travis]

I feel sorry for Mexico. Their economy is in the dumps and now this is just gonna kill their tourist industry for a few years at least.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

...Considering the last swine flu vaccine killed more people than the flu itself, ..

I don't suppose actual verifiable facts have much to do with your choice of what to believe?

Fatal Guillain-Barré syndrome after the national influenza immunization program.

Fifty-eight fatal cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) were reported during the 1976 to 1977 National Influenza Program: Thirty-two (58%) of these patients had received the A/New Jersey influenza vaccine. The mean interval from vaccination to onset was 3.9 weeks, and the incidence of preceding illness in vaccinated or unvaccinated patients was similar. Fifty-eight percent had at least one chronic disease before onset. The clinical features were similar in vaccinated and unvaccinated patients. Most deaths followed medical complications of respiratory paralysis: Fifteen had pneumonia, 29 (83%) died suddenly, 15 had sudden arrhythmias or hypotension, and 7 had myocardial infarction or pulmonary embolus.

Compare that to the 20,000 to 40,000 annual deaths attributed to influenza.


As for the total risk from the 1976 vaccine and subsequent flu vaccines:

Guillain-Barre syndrome following vaccination in the National Influenza Immunization Program, United States, 1976--1977.

Because of an increase in the number of reports of Guillian-Barre syndrome (GBS) following A/New Jersey influenza vaccination, the National Influenza Immunization Program was suspended December 16, 1976 and nationwide surveillance for GBS was begun. This surveillance uncovered a total of 1098 patients with onset of GBS from October 1, 1976, to January 31, 1977, from all 50 states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. A total of 532 patients had recently received an A/New Jersey influenza vaccination prior to their onset of GBS (vaccinated cases), and 15 patients received a vaccination after their onset of GBS. Five hundred forty-three patients had not been recently vaccinated with A/New Jersey influenza vaccine and the vaccination status for 8 was unknown. Epidemiologic evidence indicated that many cases of GBS were related to vaccination. When compared to the unvaccinated population, the vaccinated population had a significantly elevated attack rate in every adult age group. The estimated attributable risk of vaccine-related GBS in the adult population was just under one case per 100,000 vaccinations. The period of increased risk was concentrated primarily within the 5-week period after vaccination, although it lasted for approximately 9 or 10 weeks.

Guillain-Barré syndrome and the 1978-1979 influenza vaccine.

An ongoing surveillance program was intensified to determine whether an increased risk of acquiring vaccine-related Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) (similar to that observed after vaccination with the A/New Jersey swine-influenza vaccine in 1976) existed for the approximately 12.5 million adults (greater than or equal to 18 years old) vaccinated in the 1978-1979 influenza campaign. In the contiguous United States (excluding Maryland) 544 cases of GBS with onset between September 1, 1978, and March 31, 1979, were reported, including 12 adults who had been vaccinated within eight weeks before the onset of GBS and 393 who had not. The relative risk of vaccine-associated GBS for adults reported in this surveillance was 1.4 (95% confidence limits, 0.7 to 2.7)--significantly below the risk (6.2) associated with A/New Jersey vaccine for the equivalent eight-week period. In contrast to the A/New Jersey vaccine, the 1978-1979 influenza vaccine was not associated with a statistically significant excess risk of GBS.

Guillain-Barré syndrome in the United States, 1979-1980 and 1980-1981. Lack of an association with influenza vaccination.

An ongoing surveillance program was intensified during the 1979-1980 and the 1980-1981 influenza seasons to determine whether an increased risk of acquiring Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) within eight weeks after influenza vaccination existed for adults in the United States who received influenza vaccine, when compared with adult who had not been vaccinated recently. Five hundred twenty-eight cases of GBS with onset between Sept 1 and March 31, including seven following recent vaccination, were reported by participating neurologists in 1979-1980; 459 cases, including 12 following recent vaccination, were reported in 1980-1981. The relative risk of acquiring GBS following influenza vaccination--0.6 in 1979-1980 and 1.4 in 1980-1981--was not significantly different from 1.0 in either season. These results suggest that there was no increased risk of acquiring GBS associated with the influenza vaccines administered during these seasons and that the causative "trigger agent" in the A/New Jersey (swine) influenza vaccine administered in 1976 has not been present in subsequent influenza vaccine preparations.

 

[cj.23]

I don't suppose actual verifiable facts have much to do with your choice of what to believe?

For once Skeptigirl and i are in absolute 100% agreement. Go that girl! Very very well said. Those interested should check out the story in Gina Kolata's book Flu - I was just blogging on my own reaction, but if anyone raises this canard in the comments i'll direct them here. Nominated!

cj x

 

[WildCat]

Are we all dead yet?

MRSA, SARS, flesh-eating bacteria... this is media hype folks. Nothing to see here. Just the latest media frenzy.

 

[GreNME]

Apparently you have no clue that while I am arguing on cannot yet draw a conclusion there is little to no risk, I am not arguing one should draw the opposite conclusion instead as your comment suggests you falsely believe.

All I can say is

Listen, actual experts on infection are still being circumspect as to the actual threat the flu poses, and are instead focused on diminishing its spread. Complain about appeal to authority if you want, but in this case the authorities trump your Google-fu any day of the week, and their focus is not on the risk of having the infection, it's on the effort to keep it from spreading. The perceived risk out there right now and the actual risk being addressed by authorities are worlds from each other, and I find attempts to reconcile the two more than a little unnecessary and ridiculous.

 

[Thanz]

 

[WildCat]

This will all be forgotten as soon as one person gets West Nile virus, and mosquito season is just around the corner!

 

[Dymanic]

Seems like he isn't a nut because he doesn't believe it is some government created virus.

Well, nuts come in more than just that one flavor, but I wouldn't be quick to hold that against a guy anyway. I can think of a number of important contributions to science that were made by individuals who were completely nuts. What I'd like to know is: is he right? I mean, John Nash also spent a lot of time trying to tease patterns out of noisy data, and he was quite thoroughly convinced that he was finding them, and he did end up receiving a Nobel Prize for some of his earlier work, but...

Also, when the flu mutates the vaccine will not be very useful...

Right, but did you catch my point? The same could apply to immunity aquired through infection by the virus in its present form.

It may be that our flu season is ending, but it's starting in the southern hemisphere so we will see what happens this fall.

Yes, I agree. I'm presently more concerned about this fall than I am about this spring and summer. That could change quickly if this thing starts going exponential, but so far, I'm not seeing that.

 

[UnrepentantSinner]

Are we all dead yet?

MRSA, SARS, flesh-eating bacteria... this is media hype folks. Nothing to see here. Just the latest media frenzy.

Edited by chillzero: 

Edited for civility

MRSA is a serious threat as is necrotizing fasciatis (sic?) in hospitals. SARS has the potential for pandemic spread as does this current incarnation of H5N1/Swine flu. People are actually dying from these diseases and your dismissiveness/non-chalance of those deaths borders on the inhumane.

Is the media overracting? Yeah. Anyone remember before 9/11 that it was the summer of the shark?
Is this something that warrents media attention? Yeah. The 1918 Spanish flu wasn't something made up for silent films of the era.

 

[Oliver]

Edited by chillzero: 

Quoted post was edited for civility - response removed

 

[rwguinn]

Edited by chillzero: 

Edited for civility

MRSA is a serious threat as is necrotizing fasciatis (sic?) in hospitals. SARS has the potential for pandemic spread as does this current incarnation of H5N1/Swine flu. People are actually dying from these diseases and your dismissiveness/non-chalance of those deaths borders on the inhumane.

Is the media overracting? Yeah. Anyone remember before 9/11 that it was the summer of the shark?
Is this something that warrents media attention? Yeah. The 1918 Spanish flu wasn't something made up for silent films of the era.

Potential Pandemic.
Finally, somebody says it right, unlike the two who objected to my contention that it WASN't Pandemic, and who called me stupid and a CT'er.
Potential!

 

[paximperium]

Potential Pandemic.
Finally, somebody says it right, unlike the two who objected to my contention that it WASN't Pandemic, and who called me stupid and a CT'er.
Potential!

It has already met common epidemiological definition of Pandemic.

 

[WildCat]

MRSA is a serious threat as is necrotizing fasciatis (sic?) in hospitals.

Perhaps if the media didn't get everyone all riled up in the first place people wouldn't demand antibiotics from their doctor every time they got a sniffle and drug-resistant bacterial strains wouldn't have evolved so fast or at all in the first place. There is harm that can come from over-hyping the latest disease.

SARS has the potential for pandemic spread as does this current incarnation of H5N1/Swine flu. People are actually dying from these diseases and your dismissiveness/non-chalance of those deaths borders on the inhumane.

35,000 Americans die every flu season from the disease. What's so special about H5N1 that it should be getting the hype it is? Every god damned year the media goes into a frenzy over the new flu strain. And it never proves to be any more deadly than any other strain of flu.

This is not the 1918 strain again. And if there ever is another like that in my lifetime it will likely get ignored by people numbed to the overhyped chicken little scare-mongering that has become de rigeur for the media and public health officials.

The boy has cried wolf one too many times.

I'm not inhumane, I'm realistic. Flu happens every year, and unless you're very old or very young or otherwise in poor health it's not going to kill you.

Drug-resistant bacteria, OTOH, becomes more and more common because of overuse of antibiotics spurned in part by media hype and irresponsible scare-mongering by public health officials.

 

[paximperium]

35,000 Americans die every flu season from the disease. What's so special about H5N1 that it should be getting the hype it is? Every god damned year the media goes into a frenzy over the new flu strain.

A new unknown strain outside of flu season that kills a healthier population than regular strains.

And it never proves to be any more deadly than any other strain of flu.

Read what you wrote carefully and identify the logical fallacy.

This is not the 1918 strain again.

No one seems to be claiming it at present. Even the media isn't.

And if there ever is another like that in my lifetime it will likely get ignored by people numbed to the overhyped chicken little scare-mongering that has become de rigeur for the media and public health officials.

That's why we have professionals who actually determine policy and government reaction.

I'm not inhumane, I'm realistic. Flu happens every year, and unless you're very old or very young or otherwise in poor health it's not going to kill you.

SARS and the bird flu killed young healthy people. Doctors and nurses who treated SARS patients died in that epidemic.

You are wrong. This is not the regular flu. We have yet to determine its severity but there is cause for concern.

 

[WildCat]

A new unknown strain outside of flu season that kills a healthier population than regular strains.

Evidence?

Read what you wrote carefully and identify the logical fallacy.
No one seems to be claiming it at present. Even the media isn't.
That's why we have professionals who actually determine policy and government reaction.

BS. This is being hyped beyond all reason.

SARS and the bird flu killed young healthy people. Doctors and nurses who treated SARS patients died in that epidemic.

SARS was an "epidemic"?! If so, the word means nothing. 6 billion people in the world, and at the height of the "epidemic" from November 2002 to April 2003 a grand total of 4,288 people contracted the disease. 251 died. You can make excuses for it all you like, but it's nothing but hype from where I stand.

You are wrong. This is not the regular flu. We have yet to determine its severity but there is cause for concern.

Wait, so we don't know that it "kills a healthier population than regular strains"?

eta: and to reiterate, right now there's people in their doctor's office with a sniffle demanding antibiotics because they're worried about H5N1. And more than likely their doctors will oblige them. And the drug-resistant strains which evolve from this irresponsible use of antibiotics will kill far more people than H5N1 ever will.

 

[Frank Newgent]

I feel sorry for Mexico. Their economy is in the dumps and now this is just gonna kill their tourist industry for a few years at least.

Cancun probably wouldn't be too much fun anyhow, what, with this explosive diarrhea.