• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Solution to Anthropogenic Climate Change?

We have been modeling climate for some decades now using emission scenarios that are more practical than going to zero emissions tomorrow. The current IPCC scenarios are the Representative Concentration Pathways. The pathways are emissions rising up to various dates and then declining.
Did you even read your source? Do you know what it means? The only model shown there with a reduction in greenhouse gasses at all is RCP 2.5, and to get that minimal reduction after reaching 450 ppm requires an unspecified future technology like CCS to reach net negative emissions. Meanwhile all attempts so far at showing this possible have failed.

That's the primary reason for articles claiming we are "locked in" to the highest temps in millions of years. Even the best scenario models using not yet developed future tech still isn't enough.

But I have proposed a fundamental change in the way we do agriculture that is based on technologies already developed and having undergone case studies of real farmers in the field. Case studies that show we are not really locked in anyway and the RCP2.5 really isn't the best case scenario after all.
 
Last edited:
France did it.
Ah yes, the French. They did it alright...

Moruroa
the first nuclear test was conducted on July 2, 1966, code named Aldebaran, when a plutonium fission bomb was exploded in the lagoon... the explosion sucked all the water from the lagoon, "raining dead fish and mollusks down on the atoll", and that it spread contamination across the Pacific as far as Peru and New Zealand.... Smaller blasts were detonated on the northern end of the atoll, designated as Denise. Three nuclear devices were detonated on barges, three were air dropped from bombers, and the rest were suspended from helium filled balloons. A total of 41 atmospheric nuclear tests were conducted at Mururoa between 1966 and 1974.

Sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
..was a bombing operation by the "action" branch of the French foreign intelligence services, the Direction générale de la sécurité extérieure (DGSE), carried out on 10 July 1985. During the operation, two operatives sank the flagship of the Greenpeace fleet, the Rainbow Warrior, at the Port of Auckland in New Zealand...

France initially denied responsibility, but two French agents were captured by New Zealand Police and charged with arson, conspiracy to commit arson, willful damage, and murder. As the truth came out, the scandal resulted in the resignation of the French Defence Minister Charles Hernu.

The two agents pleaded guilty to manslaughter and were sentenced to ten years in prison. They spent just over two years confined to the French island of Hao before being freed by the French government.[2]

Several political figures, including then New Zealand Prime Minister David Lange, have referred to the bombing as an act of terrorism[3] or state-sponsored terrorism.


Nuclear power in France
Following the 2011 Fukushima I nuclear accidents, the head of France's nuclear safety agency has said that France needs to upgrade the protection of vital functions in all its nuclear reactors to avoid a disaster in the event of a natural calamity... Opinion polls show support for atomic energy has dropped since Fukushima. Forty percent of the French "are 'hesitant' about nuclear energy while a third are in favor and 17 percent are against
In 2016, following a discovery at Flamanville Nuclear Power Plant, about 400 large steel forgings manufactured by Le Creusot Forge since 1965 have been found to have carbon-content irregularities that weakened the steel... In December 2016 the Wall Street Journal characterised the problem as a "decades long coverup of manufacturing problems", with Areva executives acknowledging that Le Creusot had been falsifying documents.[33]

France's nuclear reactors comprise 90 per cent of EDFs capacity and so they are used in load-following mode and some reactors close at weekends because there is no market for the electricity.[4][8] This means that the capacity factor is low by world standards, usually in the high seventies as a percentage, which is not an ideal economic situation for nuclear plants... During periods of high demand EDF has been routinely "forced into the relatively expensive spot and short-term power markets because it lacks adequate peak load generating capacity"

And the punchline...

In 2008, nuclear power accounted for 16% of final energy consumption in France. As is common in all industrialized nations, fossil fuels still dominate energy consumption, particularly in the transportation and heating sectors.
 
Last edited:
A big step would be to stop incentivising harmful or wasteful behavior.

for starters, let's stop paying people to build in places that will sink into the sea in a decade or two.
 
Did you even read your source?....Yet more unsourced speculations...
You are quoting the section in my post about emissions, not CO2 levels. Representative Concentration Pathways.
The RCPs are consistent with a wide range of possible changes in future anthropogenic (i.e., human) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and aim to represent their atmospheric concentrations.[4] RCP 2.6 assumes that global annual GHG emissions (measured in CO2-equivalents) peak between 2010–2020, with emissions declining substantially thereafter.[5] Emissions in RCP 4.5 peak around 2040, then decline.[5] In RCP 6, emissions peak around 2080, then decline.[5] In RCP 8.5, emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century.[5]
My post is slightly wrong - 3 of the 4 pathways are emissions rising up to various dates and then declining.

You are correct. RCP 2.5 has the level of CO2 reducing before 2100. RCP 4.5 has the level of CO2 flat before 2100. The other two have the level of CO2 rising before 2100.

There is no "requires an unspecified future technology like CCS" in RCP.
IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways
Each RCP could result from different combinations of economic, technological, demographic, policy, and institutional futures. For example, the second-to-lowest RCP could be considered as a moderate mitigation scenario. However, it is also consistent with a baseline scenario that assumes a global development that focuses on technological improvements and a shift to service industries but does not aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as a goal in itself (similar to the B1 scenario of the SRES scenarios).

What does the literature say about the amount of warming with a 335 ppm CO2 level, Red Baron Farms?
 
But I have proposed a fundamental change in the way we do agriculture that is based on technologies already developed and having undergone case studies of real farmers in the field.
You have not proposed anything in this thread or provided evidence of those technologies, Red Baron Farms. You have speculated that somehow farming practices can be changed to give physically significant carbon sequestration. You have not cited any literature on changes in farming practices. In other thread(s), you have promoted a debated farming methodology for grazing grass land so that may be where "case studies" comes from. They basically come to the amazing conclusion that ranchers who work harder at monitoring their ranches, improve their ranches!
 
Last edited:
There is no "requires an unspecified future technology like CCS" in RCP.
IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways

You just don't know what you are talking about RC because you are trying to google warrior it. I wish you had taken my advice and actually taken a climate course on all this. With your physics and math background it would have made your discussion so much more interesting.

Here is a different explanation. It's in pretty simple form. Have a look.

What on earth is an RCP?

Go look at the best case scenario.

"Oil use declines but use of other fossil fuel increases and is offset by capture and storage of carbon dioxide. Biofuel use is high. Renewable energy (eg solar & wind) increases but remains low."

That is corn ethanol as biofuel being burned to produce energy in CCS (carbon dioxide capture and storage) with the idea that if biofuels is carbon neutral then CCS will make it carbon negative. Exactly what I described to you.

1) I should not need to be arguing over bull manure with you. This is common knowledge to anyone who understands the models. They were standardized precisely for this reason! You are better than this.
2) all this does is distract and obfuscate from what is the important discussion, can the LCP sequester carbon more efficiently than the biofuel / CCS model in RCP 2.6?

well... if you actually are interested in the real debate rather than obfuscation whether unintentional or not, here is another good article:

Biofuels turn out to be a climate mistake – here’s why

and

It’s Time to Rethink America’s Corn System
 
Last edited:
You just don't know what you are talking about RC because you are trying to google warrior it....
More insults when I have cited the literature, i.e. IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways

What on earth is an RCP? is a guide to the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways "based on an excellent guide by Graham Wayne at skepticalscience.com". RCP 2.6 has an assumption of "use of other fossil fuel increases and is offset by capture and storage of carbon dioxide". This is "industrial" CCS as in Carbon capture and storage
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) (or carbon capture and sequestration or carbon control and sequestration[1]) is the process of capturing waste carbon dioxide (CO2) from large point sources, such as biomass or fossil fuel power plants, transporting it to a storage site, and depositing it where it will not enter the atmosphere, normally an underground geological formation.


Increasing the carbon content of soil, etc. comes under the wider context of carbon sequestration: "Modification of agricultural practices is a recognized method of carbon sequestration as soil can act as an effective carbon sink offsetting as much as 20% of 2010 carbon dioxide emissions annually".
Wait .... This is your disliked "google warrior" so has to be wrong :p!

But not to reverse climate change with increased productivity as claimed by some: New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
Quite simply, it is not possible to increase productivity, increase numbers of cattle and store carbon using any grazing strategy, never-mind Holistic Management. There are several factors which are important in controlling the ability of soils to store carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. A list of these factors, and their importance and relevance to Holistic Management, is listed here: ...
 
Last edited:
More insults when I have cited the literature, i.e. IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways

What on earth is an RCP? is a guide to the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways "based on an excellent guide by Graham Wayne at skepticalscience.com". RCP 2.6 has an assumption of "use of other fossil fuel increases and is offset by capture and storage of carbon dioxide". This is "industrial" CCS as in Carbon capture and storage
It is also exactly what I said, unproven technology. There are no biomass fueled CCS power plants in existence. I am glad you took the time to understand the literature well enough to prove to yourself what I said was accurate. See? I told you this discussion would be more interesting if you did your homework. And no it wasn't any insult, it was a statement of fact that you were ignorant about what was being discussed. Happy you fixed that at least a bit.:thumbsup:



Increasing the carbon content of soil, etc. comes under the wider context of carbon sequestration: "Modification of agricultural practices is a recognized method of carbon sequestration as soil can act as an effective carbon sink offsetting as much as 20% of 2010 carbon dioxide emissions annually".
Wait .... This is your disliked "google warrior" so has to be wrong :p!
Close. If you include it in a wider context like that which includes industrialized agriculture that isn't very good at sequestering carbon, then sure, those numbers are roughly accurate, but with still a very large degree of uncertainty and scientific error. My position was always that it would require a CHANGE of agricultural systems in order to be a much larger significant sink. But even turning a roughly 15% source into a 20% sink yields 35% net change, which really helps reduce the pressure to completely eliminate all fossil fuel use. Instead we could get the same results just lowering fossil fuel use very roughly 65% +/-. This is important because it's that last bit that costs a fortune because of the issues with base load.

But not to reverse climate change with increased productivity as claimed by some: New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
The last reference is a relatively good article that will take me some time to properly study to see how accurate it is or not. I will get back to you on this one after I do that. For now I remain neutral till I study it better.
 
Last edited:
OK I went there. It is pretty flawed. Point by point:

New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
"They are at risk of completely drying out because of increasing temperatures and more at risk to the detrimental effect of mismanaged grazing (Lal, 2004).This makes it unreasonable to apply Holistic Management to such dry areas, where the intense grazing would no doubt leave soils further damaged."

This is a false demonstrably illogical statement. Land that has mismanaged grazing neither proves nor disproves properly managed grazing. It's ridiculous to claim there is no doubt that even using Holistic management would result in the same outcome as mismanaged grazing. It's so ridiculous a statement I shouldn't even need to refute it. But I can easily.

Effect of grazing on soil-water content in semiarid rangelands of southeast Idaho

As can be seen clearly, Holistic planned grazing significantly increases water content of soils over mismanaged grazing and critically even shows improvement over the control with no grazing at all!

Most of the rest of that section has nothing to do with Holistic planned grazing and only describes yet again demonstrably mismanaged grazing. We can agree that overgrazing and undergrazing both result in desertification and the release of carbon rather than the sequestration of carbon. Ironically the main reason for the term "holistic" comes from a series of management techniques designed to prevent these sorts of mistakes from happening by closely monitoring and proactive adaptation. Holistic management provides a management framework that dramatically helps prevent these negative results from happening. Simply proving that the land can easily be mismanaged really is not a rebuttal of Savory at all. It's more a critique of the status quo Savory is trying to change.

Methane is my pet peeve here. I have already discussed this in some detail here. Most of the issue is Natural gas leaks and clathrates,(fossil methane) not cows at all. But I would agree that removing the livestock from grazing and instead using feedlots to fatten them also has cause some of the problem.

See upland oxic soils is the only biome on the planet that is a net sink for methane primarily due to the action of methanotrophs. Part of maintaining a healthy population of methanotrophs is indeed proper animal impact.

Biotic oxidation is accomplished by methanotrophs which are bacteria that eat methane as their only source of carbon and energy, which is then incorporated into organic compounds via the serine pathway or the ribulose monophosphate pathway.[1] Of all the natural methane sources and sinks, the biotic oxidation is the most responsive to variation in human activities.[2] It can be improved by proper management of upland oxic soils by proper grassland/savanna/open woodland management in agriculture. Essentially the healthy grassland soils are an overall net sink for methane, while closed canopy forests, wetlands, and degraded soils are generally not.[3]

So once again it is mismanagement of the land that does have some negative impact, and once again Savory's methods are designed to reduce and/or eliminate these sorts of management mistakes. This is once again not a criticism of Holistic planned grazing, but rather a critique of mismanaged livestock. I would agree that this is part of the problem, but the conclusion of this article is one huge logic fallacy. Just because mismanaged land and livestock is indeed a problem, does not say anything at all about what Savory proposes, nor does it refute the 10's of millions of acres already showing quantifiable improvement due to following his work. That does indeed include published results too by the way.

Grazing management impacts on vegetation, soil biota and soil chemical, physical and hydrological properties in tall grass prairie



Once again, this time regarding soil carbon, we see marked improvement over mismanaged grazing of several sorts, and critically an improvement over the control of no animals at all.

"Because of the complex nature of carbon storage in soils, increasing global temperature, risk of desertification and methane emissions from livestock, it is unlikely that Holistic Management, or any management technique, can reverse climate change."

I would agree with that. It's possible but very unlikely. Instead we need to do both fossil fuel reductions and changing agricultural systems both. There is no single silver bullet. And just because fossil fuel reductions is not enough alone, and soil sequestration also probably wouldn't be enough alone, doesn't mean we freeze up and do nothing. It means we must do both! Again with the logic flaws. Astonishing really.

"Studies of several grazing techniques and carbon storage have produced no ground-breaking results to suggest that Savory’s idea is doable."

This is a demonstrably false statement actually. In fact Savory won the Buckminster Fuller award for proving the breakthrough in rather dramatic fashion. Not to mention repeatability on every continent and the aforementioned 10's of millions of acres already showing dramatic improvement. So this part of the conclusion actually borders on an outright lie.

"With increasing temperature, the ability of soil to store carbon will decrease
"

Exactly true. And in fact part of the monitoring of Holistic management involves making sure soil temps stay low so they stop losing carbon and water both. So this part of the conclusion yet again can not be assigned to holistic management, but rather mismanagement. The logic flaws continue.

"and grazing will likely speed up the process of desertification. "

Again the logic flaw. Is this mismanaged grazing? Then the statement is true. Is this properly managed grazing? Then demostrably false. See above.

"Finally, methane emissions from cattle are currently too high, and their effect on global warming cannot be ignored."

Actually methane emissions mean nothing. this is as false as the merchant of doubt argument regarding CO2 emissions from animals. see argument # 34 for more information. When calculating these, of which methane is but a small part, the entire biological cycle must be considered, not just emissions. Thus it is the net that matters, not gross emissions like when we deal with fossil fuels including fossil methane.

"Adding more livestock to the planet will not help this."

Alone no. Of course not. The thing that mitigates AGW is increasing our depleted biological systems, and livestock can indeed be a tool for doing that, as Savory so amazingly proved on many millions of acres across the globe. Mismanaged livestock are part of the problem now. Not nearly as big a part as the plow and agrochemicals, but a part yes. Especially when the plow and agrochemicals are used to raise grains for cows and sheep, which is ridiculous mismanagement even worse than mismanaged grazing. So we can easily start there and stop this wasteful use of land to grow excess grains. That will free up so much land we indeed might need to increase either livestock or wild herbivores just to keep it all pruned properly. To avoid it going to desert like so much is already doing now. However, that is determined later by how much arable land we can take out of production and rest. Got the horse before the cart on that one.

“The number one public enemy is the cow. But the number one tool that can save mankind is the cow. We need every cow we can get back out on the range. It is almost criminal to have them in feedlots which are inhumane, antisocial, and environmentally and economically unsound.” Allan Savory
 
Last edited:
It is also exactly what I said, unproven technology ....
That is wrong. CCS is not unproven technology. Carbon capture and storage is technology that is known to work. It is proven technology. The article lists 9 industrial scale CCS projects and
As of September 2017, the Global CCS Institute identified 37 large-scale CCS facilities in its 2017 Global Status of CCS report which is a net decrease of one project since its 2016 Global Status of CCS report. 21 of these projects are in operation or in construction capturing more than 30 million tonnes of CO2 per annum. For the most current information, see Large Scale CCS facilities on the Global CCS Institute's website. For information on EU projects see Zero Emissions Platform website. Some of the most notable CCS large scale facilities include:
The tiny biomass part of CCS seems still under development. There are 4 biomass projects that were under development as of ~2010 which was 9 years ago.

My point was that this is carbon capture and storage and CCS does not include carbon sequestration through changes in farming practices.
Carbon sequestration through changes in farming practices will use scientifically tested and trusted changes in agricultural systems, e.g. no-till farming. It will not use dubious, disputed, copyrighted! systems. such as Savory's holistic grazing.
 
Last edited:
OK I went there. It is pretty flawed. ...
This is irrelevant to the thread. New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change' is abut Savory's flawed claims to reverse climate change. I cited it as an example of extreme, dubious claims about farming systems. When climate scientists look at a claim of reversing climate change from an ecologist, they easily see that it is wrong. What the science says is
Multiple scientific studies from climate scientists and agricultural specialists show little or no significant gain in carbon sequestration on soils managed holistically to those with other grazing techniques. Even under the most favourable conditions, Holistic Management (HM) alone can only slow climate change by a small percentage, over a limited period, and certainly cannot reverse climate change.

I will address this in the appropriate thread: Holistic Grazing (split from Cliven Bundy thread)
 
Last edited:
Can Soil Microbes Slow Climate Change?

Through photosynthesis, the cover crops pulled CO2 from the air, sank roots deep into the earth, and towered over the land. The results were unusual—and highly controversial. Johnson reported a net annual increase of almost 11 metric tons of soil carbon per hectare on his cropland.

Johnson asserts that if his approach were used across agriculture internationally, the entire world’s carbon output from 2016 could be stored on just 22 percent of the globe’s arable land.
 
The answer is that one microbiologist has an opinion that they can. David Johnson has a field trial with intriguing results but no actually published data to back his opinion up.
As with all of Johnson’s work to date, this result has appeared only in the form of reports and other “grey literature.” Harold van Es, professor of soil and water management at Cornell University’s School of Integrative Plant Science, is one of Johnson’s severest critics.
“In science, we strongly believe that research should be subjected to peer evaluation,” van Es says. “His ideas should not be at all presented as scientific facts.”
 
The answer is that one microbiologist has an opinion that they can. David Johnson has a field trial with intriguing results but no actually published data to back his opinion up.
Call it what it is, a case study. In case you didn't know, case studies run by PhD scientists actually are evidence. It's called "grey" literature and is very common in agriculture where there is no reason to publish in a peer reviewed science journal when the real peers are actually farmers who will never read those journals anyway.

Never the less, there are journal articles which I have already presented. This just happens to be the next level down, "in the field", sorts of evidence. And of course some scientists have their nose all disjointed. No scientist want to believe he could be THAT wrong and proven so by an ignorant farmer working with a microbiologist!:eek: We all know biology isn't a real science:rolleyes:, and agriculture isn't science at all!:mad:
 
Call it what it is, a case study. In case you didn't know, case studies run by PhD scientists actually are evidence.
I did not say that it was not evidence - it is not peer reviewed evidence. that any PhD scientist would publish n a peer reviewed journal. Those case studies run by PhD scientists are published in peer reviewed journal mainly because those PhD scientists are confident that their results will withstand the analysis of their peers.

The peers for PhD scientists are other PhD scientists..
 
Last edited:
I did not say that it was not evidence - it is not peer reviewed evidence. that any PhD scientist would publish n a peer reviewed journal. Those case studies run by PhD scientists are published in peer reviewed journal mainly because those PhD scientists are confident that their results will withstand the analysis of their peers.

The peers for PhD scientists are other PhD scientists..
And you on the other hand have consistently dismissed both sorts of evidence.
 
Never the less, there are journal articles which I have already presented.
You have cited some irrelevant journal articles, Red Baron Farms.
 
Last edited:
I certainly dismiss "grey" literature for the reason that it is not peer reviewed: The peers for PhD scientists are other PhD scientists.

It is a lie that I have dismissed peer reviewed papers. I have dismissed your misinterpretations of them by looking at what they actually state.
Oh really?

This is peer reviewed evidence and you dismissed it.
Grazing management impacts on vegetation, soil biota and soil chemical, physical and hydrological properties in tall grass prairie

You are not the only one either, others dismissed it too. Same argument as you just gave too! ie .. That papers on soil science exist does not show that soil carbon sequestration can be a significant global warming mitigation strategy.

So he wrote a white paper on that very issue to make the link crystal clear. No way to ignore it.

RESTORING THE CLIMATE THROUGH CAPTURE
AND STORAGE OF SOIL CARBON THROUGH
HOLISTIC PLANNED GRAZING


People complained that wasn't peer reviewed and dismissed it too. You did yourself on another thread. So he wrote another paper with plenty of corroborating evidence and co-authors and had this one peer reviewed and instead of leaving it to people to actually think, now even people who couldn't add two and two before have it explained plainly.

The role of ruminants in reducing agriculture's carbon footprint in North America

Retallack did the same. He published a peer reviewed paper with evidence:

Cenozoic Expansion of Grasslands and Climatic Cooling

And exactly like Teague, the same denialist strategy was used. Dismissed as not relevant. That was thousands of years ago and couldn't possibly be relevant in modern times.

So like Teague he had to spell it out for people and publish it. Otherwise people like you simply ignored the evidence:

Global Cooling by Grassland
Soils of the Geological Past
and Near Future


There it is spelled out for people incapable of adding two and two by themselves. The great part about this is that it is a completely different independent line of evidence from a different field of science, and each line of evidence reinforces the other.

Both of them have hit the lecture series too, just in case people still want to try and misrepresent them. In those lectures they both say it plainly.



 
Oh really? ...
It is a lie that I have dismissed peer reviewed papers. I have dismissed your misinterpretations of them by looking at what they actually state. refers to this thread. I did not dismiss "Grazing management impacts on vegetation, soil biota and soil chemical, physical and hydrological properties in tall grass prairie" since I have discussed it in the appropriate Holistic Grazing (split from Cliven Bundy thread) thread.

Allan Savory's invalid propaganda in a white paper about using his debated Holistic Grazing to reverse global warming should be addressed in that thread.

More papers stating known facts that I do not dismiss. We know that changes in agricultural practice can change soil carbon sequestration. The other known fact is that there is no evidence that they are the solution to anthropogenic climate change. As I have noted several times, soil carbon sequestration is a possible additional mechanism to mitigate global warming: Climate change mitigation.

Sceince is not done by YouTube video. A couple of scientists repeating their opinions in lectures does not make those opinions valid science.
 
Last edited:

Back
Top Bottom