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Solution to Anthropogenic Climate Change?

The idea isn't just how much the forest stores. The idea is that you then cut down the forest, store the wood away, and plant the forest again. So more and more carbon is in a giant pile of dead wood.

You know, same as happened in the carboniferous.

Why waste resources cutting it down and hauling it away. Just let the tree die naturally lay where it falls. This makes for a more diverse resilient natural ecosystem in addition to sequestering CO2.
 
BioChar is also a strong contender both for sequestering and soil enhancement

https://phys.org/news/2019-01-feds-states-biochar-soil-saving-potential.html

https://phys.org/news/2019-01-biochar-tailor-made-range-environmental-benefits.html

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969718328997

and real world

A large-scale scientific test involving a material called biochar is being conducted on forestry land in hills above Loch Ness.
Biochar is a charcoal-like by-product of the wood processing industry.
Millions of tonnes are generated every year and it is mainly sold as a mulch for horticulture.
In the test, trees have been planted at Trinloist, near Foyers, to investigate how biochar performs as a fertiliser and a "nutrient sponge".
The four-year study is being done by Natural Environment Research Council-funded scientists from the University of Edinburgh in collaboration with Forest Research.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-46890792
 
Turning forests into grasslands releases large amounts of sequestered CO2. It's caused the release of up to 270Gt of Carbon over the last few thousand years. By comparison ALL current forests, grasslands, croplands, etc combined only contain ~450Gt Carbon.


Erb et al. (2017)
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25138
Turning forests into grasslands temporarily releases carbon due to the smaller biomass pool. Absolutely correct. This is why we do NOT recommend cutting forests to make grasslands. Instead we need to turn cornfields and degraded land into grasslands. That way we don't go two steps backwards to move three steps forward.
Why waste resources cutting it down and hauling it away. Just let the tree die naturally lay where it falls. This makes for a more diverse resilient natural ecosystem in addition to sequestering CO2.
All that carbon returns to the atmosphere as CO2 and CH4.
 
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Absolutely correct. Biochar is a good significant help, and if combined with methods used to enhance the LCP, even sequesters more than both alone. This because biochar actually creates habitat beneficial to mycorrhizal fungi. So it is carbon itself, and then it helps AMF increase the LCP, and then finally the glomalin produced acts like a soil glue locking the biochar in place well into deep geological time if left undisturbed.
Glomalin Is Key To Locking Up Soil Carbon
 
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Why waste resources cutting it down and hauling it away. Just let the tree die naturally lay where it falls. This makes for a more diverse resilient natural ecosystem in addition to sequestering CO2.

OK, I'll be the straight man and assume you're not trolling.

Because wood which falls naturally will, in most cases rot. It will eventually be converted entirely to CO2. And part of the transition process will be via methane, which is (as I'm sure you know) a much more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2, but which has the saving grace of oxidizing to CO2 in 7 years or so.

Naturally falling wood will only sequester carbon if it occurs in wet environments where it is protected from the air. Or, of course, extremely dry environments - but these don't produce much wood, for obvious reasons.
 
OK, I'll be the straight man and assume you're not trolling.

Because wood which falls naturally will, in most cases rot. It will eventually be converted entirely to CO2. And part of the transition process will be via methane, which is (as I'm sure you know) a much more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2, but which has the saving grace of oxidizing to CO2 in 7 years or so.

Naturally falling wood will only sequester carbon if it occurs in wet environments where it is protected from the air. Or, of course, extremely dry environments - but these don't produce much wood, for obvious reasons.
Not to mention wood is a resource itself. Therefore cutting and hauling away wood is not wasting a resource, it is using a renewable resource. Just so long as you don't take too much and always replant, this model might not be a solution to AGW but it doesn't cause AGW either.

It's only when these renewable resources are improperly managed that they become a cause of AGW. And be sure that plowing them up and spraying them with herbicides every year to grow more corn and soy than every human being on the planet could possibly ever eat certainly is no way to manage a grassland or forest.
 
Turning forests into grasslands temporarily releases carbon due to the smaller biomass pool. .

If it were only temporary the deforestation over the last 5000 years or so would have increased the amount of grassland and increased the amount of sequestered CO2. The exact opposite has happened, changing forests to grasslands and resulted in a massive reduction in sequestered CO2 over 1000+ year time scales. Conversely periods of reforestation have sequestered CO2.
 
If it were only temporary the deforestation over the last 5000 years or so would have increased the amount of grassland and increased the amount of sequestered CO2. The exact opposite has happened, changing forests to grasslands and resulted in a massive reduction in sequestered CO2 over 1000+ year time scales. Conversely periods of reforestation have sequestered CO2.
Not true at all. The soil carbon pool is much larger than all the atmospheric and biomass carbon combined. Even in their highly degraded states due to poor agricultural practices, soils still contain much more carbon. If you study the soils, you find that the soil carbon is concentrated under what was historically grasslands and/or savanna/open woodland. This has been well established by soil scientists for over 100 years. Mollic epipedon What they didn't know was causation to explain the correlation. It was a mystery because it is very counter-intuitive how a smaller decomposing biomass could account for vastly more soil carbon.

Cenozoic Expansion of Grasslands and Climatic Cooling

So what changed this time?
Farming Claims Almost Half Earth's Land, New Maps Show
New maps show food production now takes up 40 percent of the Earth's land surface, revealing the extent to which farming has changed the face of the planet, scientists say.


It is agriculture that has changed this dynamic. Now when a forest gets removed, it often is prevented from regrowing by the plow and/or herbicides. Furthermore, vast areas of grasslands are also plowed and/or sprayed with herbicide.

The natural succession along with the ecosystem function of soil creation and carbon sequestration has been destroyed by these practices. So you lose both biomass and soil carbon and the ill effects of this are far more permanent.

And the big breakthrough in 1995 was that we finally have discovered the causation that explains the 100 year old mystery of why grasslands' soils contain vastly more sequestered soil carbon than forests' soils. More than all the biomass on the planet and atmospheric carbon combined! And that new discovery was Dr Sarah Wright's discovery of Glomalin, (Little Known Glomalin, a Key Protein in Soils) and several other scientists including Dr Christine Jones and Dr Kristine A. Nichols in the field discovery of what has been termed the liquid carbon biochemical pathway for carbon in the soil of which glomalin is only one link of a long chain.

Glomalin, the Unsung Hero of Carbon Storage

Liquid carbon pathway unrecognised


Keep in mind those last two have done field trials that are now being used by early adapters in agriculture already! That information is now decades old, meaning there are ordinary farmers that have successfully used this science to improve their land management for decades already. So it is not only repeatable by soil scientists, it is repeatable by laymen in the field without scientific training.

This is not some mythical hocus pocus, and it is time the rest of the AGW climate scientists peered beyond their closed silos and saw what's out there and currently available to help reverse AGW.

Some have. But this biggest problem is the same merchants of doubt campaign that obfuscates the science of climate change and fuels denialism is also at work vigorously obfuscating the soils science for agricultural change as a mitigation strategy.

Too often I see very obvious flaws in studies designed to minimize the perceived potential of this new paradigm. But that might be obvious to me because it is well within my silo, but it often is not nearly so obvious to a climate scientist whose silo is physics.

For example. You look at a study and find that NPK fertilizers or biocides are used, then you know they haven't studied this new paradigm at all, but rather are studying the carbon sequestration potential of the old paradigm. That's well known, modeled by the Roth C model for climate scientists, and at least 2 orders of magnitude smaller than the liquid carbon pathway. Usually even a net loss! But with certain improvements can be a fairly tiny net gain. Still, no improvement can compare it to the LCP.

You would be well in your rights to ask why this is so obvious to me. That's because of the research done on the glomalin producing arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and inorganic chemical fertilizers.
Role of Mycorrhizal Symbioses in Phosphorus Cycling

You can see the plant AMF symbiosis trades carbon for phosphorus (and other nutrients too). This is what drives the LCP pumping vast quantities of carbon deep in the A and B horizons of the soil profile, rather that the Roth C which models the decay of biomass at the surface O horizon in the soil profile.

But there is more to it. Because once you add NPK fertilizers to the soil, this symbiosis becomes superfluous, and instead parasitic. Its a feedback mechanism.

Phosphorus and Nitrogen Regulate Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Symbiosis in Petunia hybrida

But we can turn it back on again too!

The Use of Mycorrhizae to Enhance Phosphorus Uptake: A Way Out the Phosphorus Crisis

As long as we use NPK fertilizers to supply plant nutrition, then we have shut down the LCP and instead sequester carbon 2 orders of magnitude slower! But if we instead use this new paradigm to supply plant nutrition, we activate the LCP and soil carbon rises on average rate of 5-20 tonnes CO2e /ha/yr!
 
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I wish I had time to really understand the information in the links you have posted, but I truly appreciate you posting it. It's fascinating stuff, and it gives me hope that scientists are working on real solutions.

The question is whether our political processes will be able to take in the scientific information, and turn that into large scale action on the level that it needs to be effective.
 
I wish I had time to really understand the information in the links you have posted, but I truly appreciate you posting it. It's fascinating stuff, and it gives me hope that scientists are working on real solutions.

The question is whether our political processes will be able to take in the scientific information, and turn that into large scale action on the level that it needs to be effective.
I believe we can yes. Although that discussion is for the politics forum. And thanks for the kind words.
 
Not true at all. /QUOTE]

Yes it is true and I've already shown it to be true. Your entire premise is wrong.

Forests sequester more carbon than grasslands when they change to grasslands it warms the climate as has happened over the last century, when forests re-grow it cools the planet as happened during the "Little Ice Age".
 
Not true at all.

Yes it is true and I've already shown it to be true. Your entire premise is wrong.

Forests sequester more carbon than grasslands when they change to grasslands it warms the climate as has happened over the last century, when forests re-grow it cools the planet as happened during the "Little Ice Age".

Actually you haven't shown anything but that the biomass pool has dropped roughly 1/2. 466 petagrams of carbon +/-... assuming maximum vegetative potential which BTW is never seen due to natural disturbances like forest fires and floods etc....

You did not even try to compare that to lost soil carbon. Even in its currently highly degraded state the soil carbon pool at 3 meters is between 1500 Pg C and 2300 Pg C depending on the researchers estimates. Of the 52 million square kilometers of dry grassland soils worldwide, 35 million square kilometers are degraded by 70% or more due to poor agricultural practices! That soil carbon pool used to be so very much larger by far. It is even worse for the more wet tallgrass biomes which are basically completely gone and their soils rapidly degrading and 30 and 50 % of the previous soil carbon is lost.

But that's not the whole story because the depth of soil carbon is shallowest in forests. This means that a much higher % of carbon stored there will recycle to the atmosphere as it decays. It is stored, not sequestered into the long carbon cycle. Thus it is a temporary fix that helps, but it is not a solution. It essentially saturates far too quickly to be a solution.

Meanwhile grassland and savanna soils (and shrublands with grass understories) sequester their carbon much deeper in the soil profile and over geological time frames. It truly is sequestered into the long carbon cycle. Over geological time frames a high % of this carbon becomes mineral carbon in the soil rather than returning as CO2 in the atmosphere.

Biomass and soil carbon are apples and oranges.
 
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That's simply because you are refusing to accept that there are more ways to stabilize atmospheric levels at roughly current levels. ...
Wrong, Red Baron Farms. I am refusing to accept your unsupported assertion "If we cut all emissions 100% tomorrow, both fossil fuel and cement (your condition) then CO2 levels will stabilize at current levels (the paper's condition).".

The reason is the same that I do not accept my own guess that this is correct. You do not supply any scientific sources. I do not know of any scientific sources.

I have stated a couple times that there are many ways to stabilize atmospheric levels at roughly current levels. Lowering emissions is just a reliable way to do that.
That leaves us with all climate change mitigation strategies.
Lowering carbon emissions is a key element of climate change mitigation
Then I went on to climate change mitigation strategies which are ways expected to reduce global warming to acceptable levels by 2100.

The paper does not have the scenario of cutting all emissions 100% tomorrow. The article is Earth 'Locked Into' Temperatures Not Seen in 2 Million Years (2016)

The paper is Evolution of global temperature over the past two million years by Carolyn W. Snyder (Nature 13 October 2016). What Snyder says is that the past Earth system sensitivity of 9 degrees Celsius over millennium timescales suggests the current greenhouse gas levels may cause a total of 5 degrees Celsius over the next few millennia.

Snyder emphasized that this is not a exact prediction or a forecast in the article.
"This is not an exact prediction or a forecast," Snyder told Nature, advising caution regarding her study's temperature predictions. "The experiment we as humans are doing is very different than what we saw in the past."

She and other climate scientists think this is an interesting starting point for future work.
Michael Mann, an influential climate researcher at Penn State University who was not involved in Snyder's research, told Mashable that "I regard the study as provocative and interesting, but the quantitative findings must be viewed rather skeptically until the analysis has been thoroughly vetted by the scientific community."

Other scientists said they were intrigued by Snyder's findings and hope her study leads to additional research. Jeremy Shakun, a climate researcher at Boston College, told AP that "Snyder's work is a great contribution and future work should build on it."

"It's a useful starting place," Snyder said to Nature about her research. "People can take this and improve upon it as more records become available in the future."
 
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Wrong, Red Baron Farms. I am refusing to accept your unsupported assertion "If we cut all emissions 100% tomorrow, both fossil fuel and cement (your condition) then CO2 levels will stabilize at current levels (the paper's condition).".

The reason is the same that I do not accept my own guess that this is correct. You do not supply any scientific sources. I do not know of any scientific sources.

The simplest way to approximate the time it will take to reabsorb the anthropogenic flux is to calculate how long it would take for the atmosphere to revert to pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm (300 ppm might actually be better) if humans could cut all emissions 100% immediately. If the current net flux to sink of around 4 gigatons of carbon per year remained constant over time, it would take about 50 years for the atmosphere to return to 280 ppm. That's just simple back of the envelope math. However, there is no reason to think that these sinks would remain constant as emissions decrease.

In fact the carbon cycle is a self adjusting complex system. The only reason the cycle has such a high rate dissolving in the oceans and what little of the terrestrial biosphere still functioning as a sink, has everything to do with the high rate of emissions. As soon as that flux ceases, the rate on the other side of the carbon cycle will begin to reduce and ultimately stabilize, all else equal.

Now some papers like the one cited make claims warming will continue for thousands of years. I have also seen estimates somewhat but not much smaller.

So we can approach this problem in a number of different ways. We can use models of carbon sink behavior based on the best knowledge of the physics of ocean carbon absorption and the biosphere so called CO2 fertilization effect. We can also use records of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide during glacial periods in the distant past to estimate the time it takes for perturbations to settle out. Like she did actually.

Using a combination of various methods, researchers have estimated that about 50% of the net AGW CO2 pulse would be absorbed in the first 50 years, and about 70% in the first 100 years +/-. Absorption by sinks slows dramatically after that, with an additional 10 % +/- or so being removed after 300 years +/- and the remaining 20% lasting tens if not hundreds of thousands of years before being removed. That means ultimately the mean lifetime of the pulse attributable to anthropogenic emissions is around 30,000 to 35,000 years.:boggled:

Fate of fossil fuel CO2 in geologic time

Here is the twofold problem though. Assuming the 50% CO2 pulse did get absorbed and put us at 335 ppm CO2, it is still high enough to continue warming. That warming is going to release vast amounts of methane and CO2 from the permafrost melting and many other ecosystems losing carbon too. Not to mention the continuing albedo changes. These are called reinforcing feedbacks. So although the Anthropogenic Fossil Fuel flux gradually gets reabsorbed over tens of thousands of years, the actual atmospheric CO2 levels are not likely to fall nearly so fast. The actual warming certainly not. Therefore a time scale for CO2 warming potential out as far as 300 to 500 years is entirely conservative and reasonable (See IPCC 4th Assessment Report Section 2.10) and the claim made in the source I provided well within the realm of possible if not likely.

UNLESS we work hard at restoring the ecosystem function of carbon sequestration over vast areas of the planet with agriculture and better land management! Then we have a chance to actually solve an otherwise intransigent problem. Only this last part is my claim. All the rest I was taught and is well known standard core curriculum basic climate science 101.

I have no problem with skeptical criticism of my claim. But I have a big problem with a fundamental lack of knowledge regarding what is already accepted and well founded knowledge about AGW to begin with. That's why the ridicule, scorn and insults from me.

I do occasionally make exceptional claims, and it is fair to ask for exceptional evidence regarding those claims. But I do not have time to teach you basic climate science 101. Go take the damn courses yourself. Learn what the models really say yourself. Then we can intelligently discuss my own claims that need an educated skeptical eye to cut down to size!

PS BTW I also had a problem understanding all this above myself! My initial attempts at developing a AGW reversal strategy were completely flawed because I originally assumed the above 4 gigatons sink would indeed continue as roughly constant and all I had to do was offset the net rather than the gross emissions INCLUDING feedbacks!:jaw-dropp

I took the climate science courses though and found I was way off and it is much harder a problem to solve. Which is why these last two years I have been hard at work refining the mitigation strategy. None of my links work anymore because the IPCC has reorganized their web-pages without redirecting links! Very annoying. But since you requested scientific back-up and don't know where to find it, try looking here: reports IPCC
 
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Using a combination of various methods, researchers have estimated that about 50% of the net AGW CO2 pulse would be absorbed in the first 50 years, and about 70% in the first 100 years +/-. Absorption by sinks slows dramatically after that, with an additional 10 % +/- or so being removed after 300 years +/- and the remaining 20% lasting tens if not hundreds of thousands of years before being removed. That means ultimately the mean lifetime of the pulse attributable to anthropogenic emissions is around 30,000 to 35,000 years.:boggled:

Fate of fossil fuel CO2 in geologic time
This 2005 paper states that the level of CO2 will decrease naturally without the need of carbon sequestration. The decrease will be slow.

In the "If we cut all emissions 100% tomorrow" scenario we discussed these authors say that about 50% of the net AGW CO2 pulse would be absorbed in the first 50 years. That is the level of CO2 decreasing in this unlikely scenery making the Snyder paper suggestion about current greenhouse gas levels moot.

Another unsourced speculation: What does the literature say about the amount of warming with a 335 ppm CO2 level, Red Baron Farms?

Your climate courses should have told you that it is increasing CO2 that increases global temperatures. If CO2 stops increasing then there still some warming as the atmosphere comes to equilibrium. You and I already know that. The question is how long does this take?

More "ridicule, scorn and insults" from an assumption that you are the only person in this thread who has learned about climate science. FYI, I have a post graduate degree in physics and have learned about climate science. I do not claim to be an climate expert since the degree was many years ago and in solid state physics.
 
This 2005 paper states that the level of CO2 will decrease naturally without the need of carbon sequestration. The decrease will be slow.

In the "If we cut all emissions 100% tomorrow" scenario we discussed these authors say that about 50% of the net AGW CO2 pulse would be absorbed in the first 50 years. That is the level of CO2 decreasing in this unlikely scenery making the Snyder paper suggestion about current greenhouse gas levels moot.

Another unsourced speculation: What does the literature say about the amount of warming with a 335 ppm CO2 level, Red Baron Farms?

Your climate courses should have told you that it is increasing CO2 that increases global temperatures. If CO2 stops increasing then there still some warming as the atmosphere comes to equilibrium. You and I already know that. The question is how long does this take?
Models are not exactly speculation RC. They may not be the same as evidence, but they are skillful.

However the exact level of radiative imbalance at 335 ppm is dependent on the sensitivity. That number we keep getting closer to, but it is still not completely known due to the other feedbacks.

One thing we do know though, even if the CO2 dropped to 335 rapidly due to zero emissions, it is still higher than historical highs going back a very long time.

Atmospheric CO2 and glacial cycles

As you can see by the graph, even the peak CO2 levels from the warmer periods are almost always under 300 ppm.

So 335 ppm is likely going to still have us melting even more Glaciers and polar ice for a while. How much is open for some debate though.
 
Not at the same rate.

If the rate at which stored wood rots is lower than the rate at which new trees grow, then you will continuously sequester more carbon.

The amount decay is proportional to how much you store. Store twice as much and you get twice as much decay.
 
Models are not exactly speculation RC. ...
I wrote that you stated an unsourced speculation and obviously you are not a climate model :D!

Another unsourced speculation: What does the literature say about the amount of warming with a 335 ppm CO2 level, Red Baron Farms?.

That 2005 paper that you cited does have a model of a CO2 pulse that shows that the level of CO2 will decrease naturally without the need of carbon sequestration. The decrease will be slow. The paper does suggest that a constant CO2 level scenario is not realistic because as you wrote 50% of the net AGW CO2 pulse would be absorbed in the first 50 years.

We have been modeling climate for some decades now using emission scenarios that are more practical than going to zero emissions tomorrow. The current IPCC scenarios are the Representative Concentration Pathways. The pathways are emissions rising up to various dates and then declining.
 

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