Ed Self-Driving Cars: Pros, Cons, and Predictions

[acbytesla]

No chance. The software is going to be so complex that the people designing the system can't predict what it could do in the real world because there isn't enough time in the universe to cover all the test vectors. There will be a lot of "correct by design" used to handwave away intractable problems with verification and validation.

This is the kind of anti-technology statement that drives me crazy. I have zero doubt that it will get there. Just that it's not there now.

 

[Rolfe]

No chance. The software is going to be so complex that the people designing the system can't predict what it could do in the real world because there isn't enough time in the universe to cover all the test vectors. There will be a lot of "correct by design" used to handwave away intractable problems with verification and validation.

If a system is developed that has only say 50% as many crashes as human drivers, would you oppose it because it's not perfectly safe?

 

[GlennB]

If a system is developed that has only say 50% as many crashes as human drivers, would you oppose it because it's not perfectly safe?

There's more to it than crashes. Other stuff has been mentioned, such as giving way in tight spots, managing very narrow lanes where you have to make mental note of pull-in points, dealing with erratic drivers where you proceed in a non-standard way in order to avoid risk, etc etc

 

[Rolfe]

It does come down in the end to crashes, or perhaps fatalities, though. I don't think anyone is suggesting making these systems compulsory, so we must be talking about whether they should be allowed at all. People can then choose whether or not to avail themselves of them. I can only imagine that the anti brigade are proposing that the systems should be banned, withdrawn, whatever.

Why would anyone advocate that, if the stats show a significantly lower incidence of crashes and/or fatalities with these systems? I haven't heard a single good reason. Choose to use such a system, or don't. Nobody is forcing you. But why would you advocate preventing those who do want to use the systems from using them?

 

[Matthew Best]

Or merge into a traffic jam that's moving at 50-60mph on a dual carriageway.

#Confused face#

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Sure, my car has a computer in it but it is not connected to anything outside the car, and it does not need to be. I can guarantee that as long as nobody steals it or takes a crowbar to the doors, nobody will find out anything about anything. I can get information from it, engine codes, oil life and so forth, but that is trivial and private. It's possible that some information can be gotten out of it if I crash, but if I don't nobody (at least so far) is likely to read it if I don't.

So you do all your own servicing? I guess you don't care about warranties.

I'm sorry Roger got lousy cars in the past. Some of us did not, and I still wish any car currently made could corner like my '68 Peugeot or my '72 Mercedes. I greatly appreciate some modern features like engine monitoring systems, and evolutionary developments like engines that consume no oil, but I like to drive a car, and trust myself out here in the country, where snow falls and animals cross the road, and frost heaves pop up overnight, and infrastruture is minimal, more than I would trust a self driving car, and I expect that will remain so for the foreseeable future.

All cars were lousy in the past. This isn't just my opinion, it's a verified fact.

Sure, it's possible that someday even those twisty dirt roads and such will have enough infrastructure, and the cars will have enough training, to allow them to negotiate safely on a snowy night, but from the purely utilitarian point of view it would be cheaper and more efficient, less disruptive to the environment, and probably safer, to set up a better bus system.

A 'better' bus system that handles twisty dirt roads on a snowy night? Who's going to pay for all those buses? Reminds me of back in 1974 when I was living on a farm in the hills 27 miles out of town. For a whole year I was the only one on the school bus apart from the driver. Of course they allocated the dirtiest noisiest old bone-shaking diesel bus to that job.

FSD handles unmarked Aussie dirt roads flawlessly - I am shocked

Does Tesla FSD Work In A Snowstorm At Night?

Tesla FSD can drive in the jungle as long as there's a road.

Can Tesla FSD's pure vision system handle driving on construction dirt roads.

Tesla's SELF DRIVING Beta Avoids Deer At Night on Dirt Roads | Also Drives Without Headlights!

 

[acbytesla]

It does come down in the end to crashes, or perhaps fatalities, though. I don't think anyone is suggesting making these systems compulsory, so we must be talking about whether they should be allowed at all. People can then choose whether or not to avail themselves of them. I can only imagine that the anti brigade are proposing that the systems should be banned, withdrawn, whatever.

Why would anyone advocate that, if the stats show a significantly lower incidence of crashes and/or fatalities with these systems? I haven't heard a single good reason. Choose to use such a system, or don't. Nobody is forcing you. But why would you advocate preventing those who do want to use the systems from using them?

I'm with you on this Rolfe. I'm for what works best. Not for what works perfectly. This seems clearly to be an example of perfect being the enemy of good. We all accept that cars are dangerous. Yet we accept that danger because of the benefits they provide. Humans make mistakes while driving. But if computers make fewer of them, isn't that better?

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

#Confused face#

E.g., M42 around Christmas, usually in the dark with a load of people who use the road infrequently, annoyed angry men who want to travel faster and women who think SUVs stop instantly.

Thinking about it more, the M6 / M42 / A446 / M6-Toll junction is pretty fun all year round, even more so now the HS2 work is underway.

 

[Matthew Best]

Must be some new meaning of the phrase "traffic jam" that I hadn't come across before. I always thought it indicated traffic that wasn't moving at all, rather than traffic that was only moving at 50mph instead of 70 mph.

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

Anyone else remember the scene in the film The Fifth Element when Gary Oldman is sitting at his office desk talking to Derek Jacobi and starts to choke on a piece of the food he's eating. He's flailing around pressing buttons and gizmos and gadgets are doing their thing which is of no use to him. Then Derek Jacobi walks behind him, gives him a slap on the back and out pops the food.

Perhaps buses for disabled or elderly people being driven by a human might have many more advantages than a computer system with a 'Press for Assistance' button. For example, maybe the person driving the bus enjoys driving, gets an income and a sense of satisfaction from doing a useful job. Maybe the people using the bus get something from the social interaction with someone they get to know. Maybe a human driver could provide more assistance if one of the users needs help getting on or off the bus. Maybe a human driver could do more than a computer if one of the occupants is choking on a piece of food.

Humans are the most general purpose 'AI' on the planet and they come with a set of precision actuators. All for a ~100W of power consumption.

 

[SteveAitch]

E.g., M42 around Christmas, usually in the dark with a load of people who use the road infrequently, annoyed angry men who want to travel faster and women who think SUVs stop instantly.

Thinking about it more, the M6 / M42 / A446 / M6-Toll junction is pretty fun all year round, even more so now the HS2 work is underway.

And the M25, with random road-works/closed lanes/etc?

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

If a system is developed that has only say 50% as many crashes as human drivers, would you oppose it because it's not perfectly safe?

I would first question if confounding variables had been taken into account. For example, under what traffic conditions is FSD being activated? Is driver behaviour different when FSD is activated?

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

And the M25, with random road-works/closed lanes/etc?

I'm not sure I've ever travelled faster than 50mph on the M25!

 

[acbytesla]

Anyone else remember the scene in the film The Fifth Element when Gary Oldman is sitting at his office desk talking to Derek Jacobi and starts to choke on a piece of the food he's eating. He's flailing around pressing buttons and gizmos and gadgets are doing their thing which is of no use to him. Then Derek Jacobi walks behind him, gives him a slap on the back and out pops the food.

Perhaps buses for disabled or elderly people being driven by a human might have many more advantages than a computer system with a 'Press for Assistance' button. For example, maybe the person driving the bus enjoys driving, gets an income and a sense of satisfaction from doing a useful job. Maybe the people using the bus get something from the social interaction with someone they get to know. Maybe a human driver could provide more assistance if one of the users needs help getting on or off the bus. Maybe a human driver could do more than a computer if one of the occupants is choking on a piece of food.

Humans are the most general purpose 'AI' on the planet and they come with a set of precision actuators. All for a ~100W of power consumption.

Yes to all of that.

But is some service better than no service? Service from humans is expensive. In the last six years I've noticed that the bus stopping at the Park and Ride that runs only on weekdays and non-holidays has gone from 12 stops a day to 8 stops twice in the last 4 years.

Maybe deleting the driver could increase service to 14 times a day 7 days a week? I don't know which is more important. That is subjective.

 

[bruto]

So you do all your own servicing? I guess you don't care about warranties.


All cars were lousy in the past. This isn't just my opinion, it's a verified fact.


A 'better' bus system that handles twisty dirt roads on a snowy night? Who's going to pay for all those buses? Reminds me of back in 1974 when I was living on a farm in the hills 27 miles out of town. For a whole year I was the only one on the school bus apart from the driver. Of course they allocated the dirtiest noisiest old bone-shaking diesel bus to that job.

FSD handles unmarked Aussie dirt roads flawlessly - I am shocked

Does Tesla FSD Work In A Snowstorm At Night?

Tesla FSD can drive in the jungle as long as there's a road.

Can Tesla FSD's pure vision system handle driving on construction dirt roads.

Tesla's SELF DRIVING Beta Avoids Deer At Night on Dirt Roads | Also Drives Without Headlights!

Yes, I do my own servicing and for the most part my warranties have long expired, but I'm not sure what that has to do with anything. No car I've ever owned has been connected to the outside world.

As for whether all cars were lousy in the past, obviously it depends on what you consider lousy. I'm entirely in agreement that many aspects of newer cars are both more reliable and safer, but being relatively better in some ways, even important ways, does not make the old ones lousy except in relative terms.

I would guess that the small buses that run around here probably could negotiate snowy twisty roads better than a self driving car. But of course at the moment they're driven by human drivers who are familiar with conditions, and they don't go everywhere. In any case, I suggested somewhere in this thread that a good solution might be to have a bus route that makes regular stops near but not at every place where a rider might get on. A little parking, and a person could drive a couple of miles to get to the bus that takes them the remaining 25 or whatever. I think if it were planned well, a self-driving bus could work quite nicely.

As for who will pay for "all those buses," that's a problem I suspect will stall anything. As I mentioned, the "keep government out and let me do my own thing" philosophy that prevails around here likely means that local taxpayers will scream at the prospect of a few dollars added to their tax bill, even though it's probably less than the chrome mirror option on the truck they're buying on a 25 year loan.

 

[Rolfe]

I would first question if confounding variables had been taken into account. For example, under what traffic conditions is FSD being activated? Is driver behaviour different when FSD is activated?

Well then you need to study the results of the trials that have already been done and see what holes you can pick in them. However, I'm not sure what hole you think you'll find when it's a simple comparison between FSD never being activated and FSD being activated sometimes.

It's pretty much inevitable that some crashes, even fatalities, will occur with FSD that would (at least probably) not have occurred with a human driver. However, if these are offset by avoiding even more crashes and fatalities that are caused by a human driver, you have a hard sell to oppose this.

 

[dirtywick]

Who am I to believe, some random bozo on the internet, or people who are actually using FSD? Of course you may say they are all fanboys paid by Musk Tesla to tell lies. If so, *plonk*.l

Tesla is trying to hide 3 Robotaxi accidents

Tesla is attempting to conceal the details of three separate accidents involving its Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, despite having...

electrek.co

https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/musks-tesla-seeks-guard-crash-data-public-disclosure-2025-06-04/

Tesla pushes to keep key info about new robotaxi service hidden from public — here's what you need to know

Tesla wants to keep the answers it gave federal regulators about its robotaxi plans under wraps, potentially hindering public understanding and trust in its self-driving technology.

www.thecooldown.com

Tesla asks NHTSA to hide its response to Robotaxi questions

Tesla has requested that NHTSA withhold its response to the numerous questions the regulators had about its recent Robotaxi launch....

electrek.co

it just goes on and on

 

[Rolfe]

Sure, my car has a computer in it but it is not connected to anything outside the car, and it does not need to be.

I'm not sure what sort of a connection you're talking about. My two-year-old EV isn't connected to anything outside the car either. Unless I choose to plug in my phone and display Google Maps on the centre console via Android Auto, but that's not compulsory. What am I missing?

 

[bruto]

I'm not sure what sort of a connection you're talking about. My two-year-old EV isn't connected to anything outside the car either. Unless I choose to plug in my phone and display Google Maps on the centre console via Android Auto, but that's not compulsory. What am I missing?

I believe Teslas are often connected to the web or some grid or other, and the likelihood is that self driving cars would be as well. My point was in response to the Great Zaganza and Roger Ramjets, the one complaining that computerized cars are a way of co-opting true ownership and autonomy, and the other suggesting that cars already have computers, which is true but irrelevant to the issue of extending computerization beyond simply making the engine and various in-car functions work better and cheaper. As you also note, it is possible to have all sorts of computing power involved in operating the car, without the car maker's involvement beyond building it. I'm all for good reliable electronics to control some of those things,* but I'm a whole lot less enthusiastic about connecting it all to a central brain than Roger is.

*if you've ever messed with the pneumatic door locks and engine shutoff on an old Mercedes diesel, you'll understand. A prudent W123 owner carries a Mity-Vac in a holster.

 

[Darat]

Well then you need to
study the results of the trials that have already been done and see what holes you can pick in them. However, I'm not sure what hole you think you'll find when it's a simple comparison between FSD never being activated and FSD being activated sometimes.

It's pretty much inevitable that some crashes, even fatalities, will occur with FSD that would (at least probably) not have occurred with a human driver. However, if these are offset by avoiding even more crashes and fatalities that are caused by a human driver, you have a hard sell to oppose this.

I didn't think Tesla discloses its data on FSD?