Merged Odds Standard for Preliminary Test

[pavel_do]

Is this statement accurate, Pavel?

He is right, though I think I will be able to perform 30 out of 40, will do my best for that. If I was sure I cant do that I would say I am not going for it… I was the one who asked for 40 pairs.. At least..
But the conditions is not as good for me as the other tests that would give me enough time, less stress in order to perform positive results.
I know some one will say now.. you see.. he prepared already an excuse in case he fails..
THERE WILL BE NO EXCUSES… no one forced me to apply and take test.. It is my own decision..
Just that I want test to happen.. And if I will not step out of my way and test conditions that would make me really comfortable etc.. that the test will never happen.. cause it take too many hours.. cause I have advantage, cause it is too many photos etc.. CAUSE IT IS POSSIBLE FOR ME TO PASS IT WITH THOSE CONDITONS..
I stepped way to far just to move some how the negotiations and make test possible..
I would be more comfortable with 2-3 trials ( let say by 30 pairs in each) where achieving positive results in any would mean I passed it by covering any way 1.000 odds that needed to pass preliminary test.. I am sure during all 2-3 trial I would perform evident results that I am real deal and able to see and perform what I am claiming to! Having 2-3 trials also reduce a stress level that is the main issue for me in order to be as calm as I can during a test… Every one would feel calmer and more comfortable knowing that he can perform 2-3 trial.. But not 1.. I have explained that many times.
Same with more pairs.. that is still covers 1.000 that is way far from getting by a chance and I see no problem in having a few hour test with allot of pairs that I am the one who pays for any way..
Etc.. many reasons that I have explained before many times that is just ignored, and I am in front of the fact that it will be not allowed full stop.
Like passing it make them to give me the money! that is just a preliminary test as we all know.
Just that passing it will mean that is possible to pass the second one and get the money.

I will be honest with you. If the JREF will not let me to have results revealed immediately after each pair is named, I am not taking this test. Cause that would mean I have agreed to everything that will make test almost impossible to pass and I have to rely in chance to pass it..
Ill just drop it, and will be looking for other ways of testing ( maybe JREF offer something reasonable too). There is a time.. my claim valid for 1 year if I am not mistaken.
I really want test to happen and doing my best to make it possible. Cause I know I will be able to show that such things is real and can exist and has to be studied etc.. There is a fake psychics.. but that dose not mean there is no real ones!

 

[Rodney]

Nope. The JREF is requiring that Pavel be tested on what he says he can do. If he claims a 75% hit rate, that is what gets tested. Your opinion on whether he should claim something else is irrelevant. If Pavel thinks he can only get 60% then he needs to tell the JREF that and make sure that is what is tested.

Where did he say he can do 75%? That high percentage clearly stems from the JREF's desire to limit the number of trials. I understand that, but it would seem that the JREF does not want to test someone who claims (s)he can perform at only slightly above a chance rate over many hundreds or even thousands of trials, even if that performance were significant at the P=.001 level.

 

[Gr8wight]

Pavel, have you performed this test - as per the protocol you are agreeing to with the JREF - at home, and succeeded? Have you proved to yourself that you can correctly identify 30 of 40 pairs of pictures? Not, 'do you believe you can do it,' but have you actually done it yet?

 

[Gr8wight]

Where did he say he can do 75%? That high percentage clearly stems from the JREF's desire to limit the number of trials. I understand that, but it would seem that the JREF does not want to test someone who claims (s)he can perform at only slightly above a chance rate over many hundreds or even thousands of trials, even if that performance were significant at the P=.001 level.

By agreeing to the protocol, he is stating that he can do 75%. If he cannot do it, he would be foolish to agree to it.

Also, I see you have - as usual - completely ignored the question I put to you.

 

[pavel_do]

Pavel, have you performed this test - as per the protocol you are agreeing to with the JREF - at home, and succeeded? Have you proved to yourself that you can correctly identify 30 of 40 pairs of pictures? Not, 'do you believe you can do it,' but have you actually done it yet?

Nothing was agreed so far. 30 out of 40 was just another proposition.. and JREF have not replied anything about it yet...
Yes I did try it at home, and a few time I made 28-29 and 30. I practice in usual way.. But as soon as we agree to something more or less, I will make sure I have tried it many times and succeeded.

 

[steenkh]

Nothing was agreed so far. 30 out of 40 was just another proposition.. and JREF have not replied anything about it yet...
Yes I did try it at home, and a few time I made 28-29 and 30. I practice in usual way.. But as soon as we agree to something more or less, I will make sure I have tried it many times and succeeded.

Am I right in thinking that only achieving 28-30 hits "a few times" sounds suspiciously close to chance? What is your average success rate out of 40 trials?

 

[pavel_do]

Am I right in thinking that only achieving 28-30 hits "a few times" sounds suspiciously close to chance? What is your average success rate out of 40 trials?

everage is 28.

 

[steenkh]

With that success rate you should perhaps go for a slightly increased number of trials that might better accommodate your actual success rate.m

 

[petre]

With that success rate you should perhaps go for a slightly increased number of trials that might better accommodate your actual success rate.m

Agreed. If you're not hittng 30 out of 40 at least half of the time I'd try to take a little time to hone your ability some more. I made a suggestion in the other thread about using distinct classes of items (zenner cards, large color swatches, numerical digits, etc) in each trial so that the results of one are less likely to get confused with the others. There may be other ways to improve your success rate as well (I know you've been self-testing a lot already!)

I can understand the frustration in teasing out an imperfect ability, and the desire to get started on a shot at the challenge. I'm sure there's also a sense of time pressure from folks on this board and the JREF that are eager to see you tested (I do not know how much time JREF would allow you to hone your ability now that you've already applied, but perhaps they would be willing to allow you to put it on hold a month or two yet while you try alternative proceedures to satisfy all parties).

Please remember that at first you are going to encounter your preliminary test only. You are going to have to succeed a SECOND time at the same level of performance in the final test. As exciting as it would be for you to be the first applicant ever to pass the preliminary, I'm sure it would be far more satisfying to defeat the challenge and take home the offered prize. Number your recent trials (the sets of 40) and take a look at how often you've gotten 30 out of 40 (or better) on an odd-numbered trial followed by a passing performance on the following even-numbered performance (for accurate percentage chance, do not count any even-numbered successes followed by odd-numbered ones). This is roughly your estimated chance at success with this protocol. If this has not happened more than once in all of your testing, I would be rather doubtful of your success with the current state of the protocol.

 

[Rodney]

By agreeing to the protocol, he is stating that he can do 75%. If he cannot do it, he would be foolish to agree to it.

Since Pavel claims his average is 28 hits out of 40, he seems to be hoping that either he can hone his skills or that he will have some luck in the test.

Also, I see you have - as usual - completely ignored the question I put to you.

As far as drawing the line on the number of hits that would suggest that retesting is in order, I would certainly think that beating odds of 1 in 100 would qualify and, arguably, beating odds of 1 in 20 would qualify, as the latter is the general scientific standard for accepting or rejecting a hypothesis.

 

[Gr8wight]

As far as drawing the line on the number of hits that would suggest that retesting is in order, I would certainly think that beating odds of 1 in 100 would qualify and, arguably, beating odds of 1 in 20 would qualify, as the latter is the general scientific standard for accepting or rejecting a hypothesis.

That was not an answer to the question I asked you. An appropriate answer would be either "yes" or "no." What you have done is continue to express your opinion while still completely ignoring the question. The question is (and I will be more specific here if it will help you to understand what I am asking): in the context of the JREF One Million Dollar Challenge, as described here, do you understand why it is necessary to draw a line? To say, "this much is a success, and any amount less than that is a failure?" Do you understand?

 

[Rodney]

That was not an answer to the question I asked you. An appropriate answer would be either "yes" or "no." What you have done is continue to express your opinion while still completely ignoring the question. The question is (and I will be more specific here if it will help you to understand what I am asking): in the context of the JREF One Million Dollar Challenge, as described here, do you understand why it is necessary to draw a line? To say, "this much is a success, and any amount less than that is a failure?" Do you understand?

It depends whether the JREF is interested in having a fair test for the paranormal or is simply trying to discredit anyone who claims a paranormal ability. Rule 1 governing the MDC states:

"I, James Randi, through the JREF, will pay US$1,000,000 [One Million Dollars/US] to any person who can demonstrate any psychic, supernatural or paranormal ability under satisfactory observing conditions."

If Pavel could average even 55% hits under satisfactory observing conditions over a sufficiently long test, such that the odds against doing that by chance were one in a billion, would that not demonstrate a paranormal ability? But the protocol established for the preliminary test requires Pavel to achieve a 75% hit rate. So, even his claimed average hit rate of 70% would be insufficient to pass the preliminary test. Does it seem reasonable to you to say that if Pavel achieves that hit rate over 40 trials he has failed and should not be retested for a year?

So, the bottom line is that your perspective that "this much is a success, and any amount less than that is a failure" is a convenient way to dismiss those who may well have a paranormal ability but cannot achieve a spectacular result in a short test.

 

[steenkh]

As far as drawing the line on the number of hits that would suggest that retesting is in order, I would certainly think that beating odds of 1 in 100 would qualify and, arguably, beating odds of 1 in 20 would qualify, as the latter is the general scientific standard for accepting or rejecting a hypothesis.

Do you really think anybody would offer up a million dollars to someone who could beat 1 in 20 odds?

Anyway, the MDC is not about investigating the paranormal but of challenging people to perform as they already claim they can do. It should be easy to prove with odds of 1 in a million that they can do as they claim. I claim that I can ride a bicycle, and I could prove it extremely easy that I can in fact do this. The claimants seem to have quite some difficulty proving that they can do what they claim.

 

[Rodney]

Do you really think anybody would offer up a million dollars to someone who could beat 1 in 20 odds?

No, and if you read my post more carefully, you will see that what I was suggesting was continuing the preliminary test to someone who beat such odds. For example, let's suppose Pavel gets 26 out of 40 (65% hit rate vs. the expected 50%) in his preliminary test. The odds of doing that by chance are about 1 in 25. So why not retest him to see if he can repeat that result? If that were done and he performed only at a chance level, that would be the end of the testing. However, if he did repeat it, he would now have achieved 52 hits in 80 trials, which would happen by chance only about 1 in 200 times. So why not continue to test him? Again, if he performed only at a chance level, that would be the end of the testing. However, if he repeated that result again, he would now have achieved 78 hits in 120 trials, which would happen by chance only about 1 in 1,500 times. So finally, he would have beaten odds of better than 1 in 1000 and passed the preliminary testing. However, that would still not win him any money, but only qualify him for the final testing.

Anyway, the MDC is not about investigating the paranormal but of challenging people to perform as they already claim they can do. It should be easy to prove with odds of 1 in a million that they can do as they claim. I claim that I can ride a bicycle, and I could prove it extremely easy that I can in fact do this. The claimants seem to have quite some difficulty proving that they can do what they claim.

If demonstrating a paranormal ability were as simple as riding a bicycle, even Randi would now be convinced that there is such a thing as the paranormal.

 

[pavel_do]

No, and if you read my post more carefully, you will see that what I was suggesting was continuing the preliminary test to someone who beat such odds. For example, let's suppose Pavel gets 26 out of 40 (65% hit rate vs. the expected 50%) in his preliminary test. The odds of doing that by chance are about 1 in 25. So why not retest him to see if he can repeat that result? If that were done and he performed only at a chance level, that would be the end of the testing. However, if he did repeat it, he would now have achieved 52 hits in 80 trials, which would happen by chance only about 1 in 200 times. So why not continue to test him? Again, if he performed only at a chance level, that would be the end of the testing. However, if he repeated that result again, he would now have achieved 78 hits in 120 trials, which would happen by chance only about 1 in 1,500 times. So finally, he would have beaten odds of better than 1 in 1000 and passed the preliminary testing. However, that would still not win him any money, but only qualify him for the final testing.


If demonstrating a paranormal ability were as simple as riding a bicycle, even Randi would now be convinced that there is such a thing as the paranormal.

I will agree with you. But the main problem with JREF is not event he rules and odds that id demanded ( 1.000 to 1 is too much in my oppinoun for just apriliminary test..) a specially when you not really given enough time and opportunity to show your ability in proper TESTS not TEST.. Any ways.. as I wrote in one of my posts before, Ok..JREF do there job by debunking fakes and offering this prize money etc.. But by not really giving proper chance to show the ability and demands let say a bit over reasonable. It put a shade so to say on all the paranormal.. Like who ever is skeptics they all 99.9% say.. It is all fraud and fakes…Look…there is JREF offers MILLION. And no one got it.. no one bothered to really see that JREF is a challenge and has nothing to do with people who reaserch and trying to find the truth so to say.. But most of people has such impression..
I can show stable results with test with pair where MINNIMUM I will show 65% accuracy that is more than chance it self.. so in order to beat 1.000 odds to one I need to get 65 right out of 100.. But for JREF that not really good.. as they conceders it is too complicated too many pair and photos etc.. and I sort of might have a chance to get it by chance 65 out of 100 and than it would mean I passed preliminary test.. And when I say.. Ok.. I am ready for 2-3 trial by 100 pairs to show that I am real deal and that is not just stupid chance.. That is not accepted either… and when U hear skeptics they all as one say.. There is JREF no one got the prize so isn’t it obvious it is not exist..
From the other hand.. to allow some one pass 1st preliminary test.. would mean that person can pass the second and will draw all the attention of the public to him self that could sort of “force” them to be more reasonable with test conditions… as some of them not really reasonable and contradicts the idea..
And let put it this way too.. imagine some one passed it and money will be paid.. what JREF will be do next?? Lecturing that everyone fakes and frauds and get donations for that? Or they convert to a foundations who finally will be interested in RESEARCHING and perform proper test to establish ability of some individuals.. if that the case and I am the one who pass the challenge I am willing to donate some money to JREF.

 

[GzuzKryzt]

I will agree with you. But the main problem with JREF is not event he rules and odds that id demanded ( 1.000 to 1 is too much in my oppinoun for just apriliminary test..) a specially when you not really given enough time and opportunity to show your ability in proper TESTS not TEST.. Any ways.. as I wrote in one of my posts before, Ok..JREF do there job by debunking fakes and offering this prize money etc.. But by not really giving proper chance to show the ability and demands let say a bit over reasonable. It put a shade so to say on all the paranormal.. Like who ever is skeptics they all 99.9% say.. It is all fraud and fakes…Look…there is JREF offers MILLION. And no one got it.. no one bothered to really see that JREF is a challenge and has nothing to do with people who reaserch and trying to find the truth so to say.. But most of people has such impression..
I can show stable results with test with pair where MINNIMUM I will show 65% accuracy that is more than chance it self.. so in order to beat 1.000 odds to one I need to get 65 right out of 100.. But for JREF that not really good.. as they conceders it is too complicated too many pair and photos etc.. and I sort of might have a chance to get it by chance 65 out of 100 and than it would mean I passed preliminary test.. And when I say.. Ok.. I am ready for 2-3 trial by 100 pairs to show that I am real deal and that is not just stupid chance.. That is not accepted either… and when U hear skeptics they all as one say.. There is JREF no one got the prize so isn’t it obvious it is not exist..
From the other hand.. to allow some one pass 1st preliminary test.. would mean that person can pass the second and will draw all the attention of the public to him self that could sort of “force” them to be more reasonable with test conditions… as some of them not really reasonable and contradicts the idea..
And let put it this way too.. imagine some one passed it and money will be paid.. what JREF will be do next?? Lecturing that everyone fakes and frauds and get donations for that? Or they convert to a foundations who finally will be interested in RESEARCHING and perform proper test to establish ability of some individuals.. if that the case and I am the one who pass the challenge I am willing to donate some money to JREF.

Or you will perform along the probabilities suggested by chance, you will offer excuses and blame everyone but yourself. Hold on, you have already done the latter two.

Pavel, if you do not feel comfortable with the test conditions, simply do not do the test. Find a private sponsor who is willing to endure your demands and will pay for a test you envision. If you use strict controls and proper blinding, you will increase chances that people will take you seriously.

And for the n-th time: Why would odds matter to someone who has a genuine paranormal (i.e. currently inexplicable by science) ability?

 

[Rodney]

And for the n-th time: Why would odds matter to someone who has a genuine paranormal (i.e. currently inexplicable by science) ability?

It is truly mind-boggling that you and so many others here cannot seem to comprehend this fundamental point. Pavel is not claiming that he has X-ray vision and can read the unopened envelopes' contents as easily as he can read the contents after the envelopes have been opened -- he is simply claiming that he has the ability to discern the envelopes' contents at a significantly higher than chance rate. Is there some secret part of the MDC that states that a paranormal ability does not exist unless it can operate with 100% accuracy? By your logic, if aspirin cannot prevent 100% of heart attacks, there is no point in taking it to prevent heart attacks.

 

[GzuzKryzt]

It is truly mind-boggling that you and so many others here cannot seem to comprehend this fundamental point. Pavel is not claiming that he has X-ray vision and can read the unopened envelopes' contents as easily as he can read the contents after the envelopes have been opened -- he is simply claiming that he has the ability to discern the envelopes' contents at a significantly higher than chance rate. Is there some secret part of the MDC that states that a paranormal ability does not exist unless it can operate with 100% accuracy? By your logic, if aspirin cannot prevent 100% of heart attacks, there is no point in taking it to prevent heart attacks.

Your aspirin anylogy seems flawed. Nevermind.

In all brevity - since we have very differing viewpoints and a discussion seems pointless - the "odd(s) discussion" will only be brought up by people like Pavel: People who seem to (for one part) modeling their claims around the required minimum odds of the MDC success criteria.

I understand the pragmatic part of that, obviously.

 

[steenkh]

If demonstrating a paranormal ability were as simple as riding a bicycle, even Randi would now be convinced that there is such a thing as the paranormal.

Every day there are people claiming that they can do paranormal things. Every day. A lot of them are living of their abilities. It seems strange that these abilities that work every day can not be demonstrated as effectively as riding a bicycle. These people are the primary targets for the JREF challenge: Perform as you claim you can perform, and you will get a million dollars.

Now, some paranormal performers cannot perform their abilities as easy as riding a bicycle probably because there are no abilities to demonstrate. However, if these abilities are real, all that is necessary is to determine at what level they can be performed, and it can be tested at this level with the same certainty as if it was about riding a bicycle: 1:1,000,000 chance of a false positive.

Please refer to the thoughtful post by Thabiguy earlier in this thread:

There are two distinct chances at play here: 1. The chance at which the alleged paranormal ability works. For example, a person might predict the outcome of a coin toss with 100% success rate, or 80% success rate, or, if she really only has a very hazy vision of the future, with 51% success rate. 2. The chance of the person passing the preliminary (or real) test without having the ability that she claims to have. In other words, the probability of a false positive. I put those words in bold because it is important to understand that that is precisely what it is: a false positive. It's not the odds of succeeding in the preliminary test; it's the odds of the test failing and incorrectly crediting a "muggle" with the claimed paranormal ability.

 

[pavel_do]

Originally Posted by Thabiguy
There are two distinct chances at play here: 1. The chance at which the alleged paranormal ability works. For example, a person might predict the outcome of a coin toss with 100% success rate, or 80% success rate, or, if she really only has a very hazy vision of the future, with 51% success rate. 2. The chance of the person passing the preliminary (or real) test without having the ability that she claims to have. In other words, the probability of a false positive. I put those words in bold because it is important to understand that that is precisely what it is: a false positive. It's not the odds of succeeding in the preliminary test; it's the odds of the test failing and incorrectly crediting a "muggle" with the claimed paranormal ability.
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thoughtful post by Thabiguy earlier in this thread[/URL]:

Exactly for that reason, 1 passed test can not show that person did not achieved it by luck.. same as if he fails, it does not mean he did not failed it by chance.. You need to have 2-3 test and if you repeat results.. that will be obvious that either you do have the ability or that just was a luck.. Just as Rodney have written in his post..