Merged Odds Standard for Preliminary Test

[pavel_do]

It should cover all possible sides.. but still make it possible to do.
I am finding it difficult but still taking it as possible as other wise would not waist my time… life aint easy =)

 

[Rodney]

It took me a year to assemble all that necessary to be able to apply for the challenge, such as to get affidavit from 2 academics, media coverage and the Application that was notarized together with the claim. So only after 1 year and 1 month I am ready to send my application.

Though if that would be with Old rules, that would take maximum a day.. as there was no need for the affidavits and media presence, all you had to do is notarize your application and not to forget to send it to JERF

Good luck on your application, pavel, and let us know how much time you spend in total. I can assure you that it will be far less time than a Ganzfeld applicant would spend.

 

[thaiboxerken]

You simply can't assure that without actually having a Ganzfeld applicant apply. Until then, you're simply making stuff up and it stinks.

 

[Rasmus]

If you think the time involved would be 10-15 minutes, you're completely out of touch with reality.

What? For an ability that has allegedly been proven scientifically? How long could that take? What do you think would be required?

Dear JREF,

I hereby apply for your Million Dollar Challenge.

I have sat in a number of experiments that have proven to my satisfaction that I can receive telepathic messages with 22% accuracy using a trusted "sender" and a standard set of 5 ESP cards to chose what should be transmitted.

For this to work, we need to be in separate rooms, no further apart than 25m, and in conditions commonly present in Ganzfield-Experiments (white noise via headphones, red light, a comfy chair and eye-covers all of which we could provide at your request)

I claim that in a series of 1000 transmissions (at ca. 1min each) I will be able to correctly identify no less than 220 cards.

If you think that ca. 17 hours per set of 1000 trials is acceptable I would love to hear back from you in this matter.

Sincerly,

Kermit the Frog

There. it's *that* simple. Unless, of course, you do not actually have any idea what it is you can do or how good you are.

 

[Rodney]

What? For an ability that has allegedly been proven scientifically?

I think you may have inadvertently stumbled into the truth. The evidence is, in fact, quite strong that the prior Ganzfeld experiments as a composite have demonstrated psi. So, perhaps the JREF does not have a lot of incentive to test a fair Ganzfeld protocol?

There. it's *that* simple. Unless, of course, you do not actually have any idea what it is you can do or how good you are.

It's not simple at all because: (1) Based on past Ganzfeld experiments, it would take 1,000-2,000 trials to conclusively demonstrate that psi was taking place; and (2) Agreement would have to be reached on what constitutes a fair, rigorous protocol.

 

[thaiboxerken]

You can get your Ganzbuddies to actually submit an application. Until then, all of your whining is baseless and rather childish.

 

[Pope130]

I think you may have inadvertently stumbled into the truth. The evidence is, in fact, quite strong that the prior Ganzfeld experiments as a composite have demonstrated psi. So, perhaps the JREF does not have a lot of incentive to test a fair Ganzfeld protocol?

The incentive would be an application from a challenger. Why don't the Ganzfelders apply?

 

[Rasmus]

I think you may have inadvertently stumbled into the truth. The evidence is, in fact, quite strong that the prior Ganzfeld experiments as a composite have demonstrated psi. So, perhaps the JREF does not have a lot of incentive to test a fair Ganzfeld protocol?

So, perhaps it would help if someone actually bothered to apply with one of those experiments and we'd know?

It's not simple at all because: (1) Based on past Ganzfeld experiments, it would take 1,000-2,000 trials to conclusively demonstrate that psi was taking place; and (2) Agreement would have to be reached on what constitutes a fair, rigorous protocol.

A letter like the one I drafted could easily be written in well under 15 minutes, assuming the applicant actually had a clue what it was they could do.

Then the JREF could

- conditionally accept the application and ask for a more thorough protocol, possibly pointing out that running the experiment would be quite costly if no volunteers could be found to do it for free.
- reject the application, e.g. due to the long hours it would take to run the experiment.

But initially you could get away with as little as 15 minutes. If you were to invest an hour or two (just contrast that to your endless whining here on the forums! You could have easily used that time to draft a protocol!) you could go a lot further.

And I can't repeat this often enough: This is about a million dollars! That is much, much, much more money that most people will ever see in their lifetimes! And yet, you are unwilling to put in little time to get it. You are complaining about possibly wasting a few hours.

You are utterly, utterly irrational in this. If I had such an ability, I would gladly spend weeks and months on working out an agreement with the JREF: Because it would be well worth it! And if the JREF should decline I would go after any other paranormal challenge I could find!

Yet here you are, posting on a web forum. WHY IS THAT?

Her you are, assuming with no good evidence that an application would be rejected, instead of using the same time to actually write an application, or get someone el,se to do it. WHY IS THAT?

 

[fls]

I think you may have inadvertently stumbled into the truth. The evidence is, in fact, quite strong that the prior Ganzfeld experiments as a composite have demonstrated psi. So, perhaps the JREF does not have a lot of incentive to test a fair Ganzfeld protocol?

It's not simple at all because: (1) Based on past Ganzfeld experiments, it would take 1,000-2,000 trials to conclusively demonstrate that psi was taking place; and (2) Agreement would have to be reached on what constitutes a fair, rigorous protocol.

Those two conditions are just what a ganzfeld experiment needs in order to persuade anyone except believers that there is something of interest. If that hasn't already happened outside of the confines of the MDC, then how can the evidence be strong? If you have some researchers who are willing to perform 1000-2000 trials based on a fair, rigorous protocol if the JREF would accept it, why won't they do it for the sake of the advancement of parapsychology? Critics have been crying out for that for years.

Linda

 

[Rodney]

Those two conditions are just what a ganzfeld experiment needs in order to persuade anyone except believers that there is something of interest. If that hasn't already happened outside of the confines of the MDC, then how can the evidence be strong? If you have some researchers who are willing to perform 1000-2000 trials based on a fair, rigorous protocol if the JREF would accept it, why won't they do it for the sake of the advancement of parapsychology? Critics have been crying out for that for years.

Linda

Are you arguing that recent Ganzfeld experiments have not been rigorous enough? If so, what would you change to improve them?

 

[fls]

Are you arguing that recent Ganzfeld experiments have not been rigorous enough? If so, what would you change to improve them?

I'm willing to consider the protocol that Hyman and Honorton agreed on to be rigorous enough as far as the experiment goes, although there is still the problem of the experimenter effect. The main issue is that the studies have been too small.

Linda

 

[Rodney]

[From thread titled "Information on Protocol for Pavel Ziborov Applicant"] Oh, Rodney, we've all had this discussion before. Fifteen or twenty times, if I recall correctly. The JREF is not serious about the paranormal. They are serious about challenging those people who make claims about the paranormal to demonstrate their abilities. That's all we're asking Pavel, or any other applicant, to do. Demonstrate the exact ability you claim to have. If Pavel claims to be able to correctly identify 30 of 40 photographs, then 29 does not meet his own conditions.

The point is that Pavel wanted a longer test, but the JREF constrained him to only 40 trials.

Of course, until Pavel undertakes his test, your position on this is moot. What happens if he only gets 26 correct? Or 25? Or 19? Where do you draw the line? Or do you not recognise why it is necessary to draw a line?

Do you?

My point on this thread is that there may well be people who can perform at a significantly above chance level in a controlled experiment, but not perform in spectacular fashion. The JREF is requiring that Pavel obtain a 75% hit rate, but he may be generally capable of only a 55-60% rate.

 

[Startz]

The point is that Pavel wanted a longer test, but the JREF constrained him to only 40 trials.


My point on this thread is that there may well be people who can perform at a significantly above chance level in a controlled experiment, but not perform in spectacular fashion. The JREF is requiring that Pavel obtain a 75% hit rate, but he may be generally capable of only a 55-60% rate.

Without taking a position on the general point, I'd like to remind everyone that JREF has not set a hard and fast requirement that there be 40 trials. JREF hasn't decided what's an acceptable protocol, which is still in the negotiation stage. The 40 trials resulted from Pavel's desire to be cooperative in order to move the negotiations along.

 

[Cuddles]

The JREF is requiring that Pavel obtain a 75% hit rate, but he may be generally capable of only a 55-60% rate.

Nope. The JREF is requiring that Pavel be tested on what he says he can do. If he claims a 75% hit rate, that is what gets tested. Your opinion on whether he should claim something else is irrelevant. If Pavel thinks he can only get 60% then he needs to tell the JREF that and make sure that is what is tested.

 

[GzuzKryzt]

...
The JREF is requiring that Pavel obtain a 75% hit rate, but he may be generally capable of only a 55-60% rate.

Please point to the source where you seemed to derive this from.

 

[Gr8wight]

The point is that Pavel wanted a longer test, but the JREF constrained him to only 40 trials.


My point on this thread is that there may well be people who can perform at a significantly above chance level in a controlled experiment, but not perform in spectacular fashion. The JREF is requiring that Pavel obtain a 75% hit rate, but he may be generally capable of only a 55-60% rate.

Liar. Pavel is claiming he is capable of performing at a 75% success level. If he does not believe he can achieve a 75% success level, he should not agree to the testing protocol. His call, not Randi's.

Also, answer my question. Do you understand why it is necessary to draw a line?

 

[pavel_do]

Liar. Pavel is claiming he is capable of performing at a 75% success level. If he does not believe he can achieve a 75% success level, he should not agree to the testing protocol. His call, not Randi's.

Also, answer my question. Do you understand why it is necessary to draw a line?

it is not as simple as it seems.. You see, I proposed before other tests with less % than 75 of success..(still above the chance). The proposed test would cover 1.000 odds that is needed, tests that I would be comfortable with and that would really give me enough time and “chance” to show my ability..… just that I take more time for test , more pairs of photos to be used.. and the JREF not really fancy of that.. so I had to go out my way to come to something that not 100% good enough and comfortable like the others proposed tests.

 

[GzuzKryzt]

it is not as simple as it seems.. You see, I proposed before other tests with less % than 75 of success..(still above the chance). The proposed test would cover 1.000 odds that is needed, tests that I would be comfortable with and that would really give me enough time and “chance” to show my ability..… just that I take more time for test , more pairs of photos to be used.. and the JREF not really fancy of that.. so I had to go out my way to come to something that not 100% good enough and comfortable like the others proposed tests.

If you do not feel comfortable with the protocol, Pavel, you should say so.

Either the JREF and you will find another way to design an acceptable protocol or simply no test will happen.



Perhaps the MDC is not the ideal way to provide evidence for your claimed ability. But it seems an ideal way for a self-proclaimed clairvoyant to net himself $1,000,000, right? And let's not forget about the attention.

 

[steenkh]

It seems that Pavel actually does not think he can perform at the level required with the protocol that is now being agreed upon, but in order to get a workable protocol that will not take days of effort (for which it is difficult to find volunteer testers), he has settled on chance that he will perform at that level on that day.

 

[GzuzKryzt]

It seems that Pavel actually does not think he can perform at the level required with the protocol that is now being agreed upon, but in order to get a workable protocol that will not take days of effort (for which it is difficult to find volunteer testers), he has settled on chance that he will perform at that level on that day.

Is this statement accurate, Pavel?